Iran’s nuclear boomerang
Guy Bechor, YNET
The media and public storm in Israel in the wake of the report on Iran’s nuclear program, and the concern in Israel over an Iranian nuclear bomb, is exaggerated. Those who should be bothered by the latest developments are members of Iran’s Khomeinist regime; the nuclear program is turning into a curse for it. Should the bomb come to life, it shall prompt the regime’s demise.
Indeed, the international community is slow in imposing tough sanctions on Tehran, because many engage in surreptitious and even open trade ties with it – for example, Germany and France, which are Israel’s allies. However, one cannot say that nothing is happening.
Last week, the House Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously passed a bill that sets a series of sanctions on foreign firms that provide Iran with fuel or other refined oil products. Such companies and individuals would no longer be allowed to enter the US, do business there, work with its banks and so on. Similar sanctions shall be imposed on those who help Iran develop its own oil refining capabilities.
The bill also asserts that President Obama must clarify within 30 days of the law going into effect whether Tehran’s central bank supports the acquisition of nuclear arms, Iran’s missile program, the procurement of advanced weapons or terror. If the answer to any one of these questions is positive, the US shall boycott any foreign bank that engages in significant transactions with Iran’s central bank.
Nice holiday present
Moreover, American representatives and diplomats shall be banned from meeting with Iranian reps, in order to prevent direct negotiations with the regime, and the US Administration shall no longer provide spare parts for civilian aircraft in Iran. Congress is also granting Obama the power to boost the economic and political assistance to Iran’s opposition.
This bipartisan bill is supposed to be passed in Congress and Senate by Christmas. It would make a “nice holiday present” for Ahmadinejad, said Republican Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who is leading the initiative with her Democratic colleague Howard Berman.
Israel and its allies must make sure that France and Germany join similar legislation, thereby fully isolating the Iranian regime. Russia and China will object, but most of Iran’s trade is undertaken with the European Union. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s report offers great help in this diplomatic battle to economically suffocate Iran.
Ethnic troubles
Iran’s rulers are aware of the frightening decline in their global status. They see Gaddafi, the tyrant who was killed, and the regime of their ally, Assad, slowly marching towards its demise, and they understand.
And let’s assume Iran acquires a nuclear bomb – at that very moment, the world shall be truly closing in on it, because up to this point Tehran still claims that it seeks nuclear energy for “peaceful” purposes. Then, the millions of Iranians who wish to rid themselves of the ayatollah regime shall rise up. We already saw them in the forged presidential elections of 2009, and they have not disappeared. And how would a nuclear bomb help then? Will the regime drop it on Tehran to kill the rebels?
As it is, Iran is growing weaker on the ethnic front. The Kurds are killing the Revolutionary Guards and are increasingly joining forces with the Kurds of Iraq, Syria and Turkey; Iran’s Sunni Arabs (about one-third of the population) are dreaming about an independent Sunni state, and the Azeri people are dreaming of joining Azerbaijan. A dying economy in Iran would completely undermine the national stripes left in the country, as was the case in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
This is the curse imposed on the Tehran regime: The more it advances with its nuclear program, the more isolated Iran shall become, with the regime facing a deeper domestic threat. In this respect we must admit that Ahmadinejad is doing quite a good job.
Yes it is absolutely ok, in fact vitally necessary, for Israel to have nuclear weapons and not its genocidal, terrorist enemies who are very open about their annihilationist goals. That you cannot or will not make distinctions between responsible, free nations and dictatorships and terrorist states having nuclear weapons, reveals your complete lack of moral clarity. I’ve heard others make your ridiculous argument numerous times before.
SHmuel HaLevi says:
If I were Iran I would store all weapons grade plutonium and fissile material in warehouses in the middle of Tehran. Once they have mastered the knowledge of production weaponizing and all engineering problems that knowledge can’t be attacked. They will if determined enough get their nukes or buy off the shelf ones from Pakistan or N.Korea. Sam Cohen of the neutron Bomb believed they already had some possibly those 4-5 missing Ukrainian nukes.
I think Israel needs to attack Iran not so much to stop their Nuke program but to A- send a message we can if we wanted to do what Iran threatens to Israel. To that effect I would use a small low yield tactical rocket to take out a small oil field. That sends a dual message both to Iran and everyone else that we have and control the breaks to the engine of Western Industrial civilization should we be threated or attacked.
B- To bring home to everyone that we will in fact use our nukes as an option of first choice against any perceived existential threat to Israel and the Israeli people.
C- Attacking Iran hopefully will prod Hezbollah and Hamas to attack giving us the Casus Belli for attacking and invading Lebanon and Gaza. Mission in Lebanon is to destroy to the extent possible Hezbollah and all their rockets and missiles. To depopulate permanently southern Lebanon and establish our lines(annexed border) along the Litani permanently. With respect to Gaza, no alternative other than driving the population into Egyptian held Sinai. Since most of the Gazans are either direct refugees or their progeny, forcing them out of Gaza might force the International community to resettle them thereby ending part of the refugee problem and setting a precedent for the rest.
Since there are a least a half dozen ME countries with advanced nuke programs our main concern must be to stop proliferation. If Israel does attack Iran and use any of our nuclear options it would automatically send the message that our nukes have been brought up from the cellar. Therefore new revised and updated military doctrine by Israel must be enunciated.
Israel must be perceived as an unpredictable mad state, not to be messed with by anyone. Our whole military posture would have to be centered around the offensive nature and nuclear war making capabilities of the IDF, the conventional option would no longer be credible and much too expensive to maintain. Our forces should be reduced to border security, protection and anti terrorism. Everything else we rely on our nukes. Missile shields the IAF and Navy to present a credible second strike option. A country like Iran can neverbe sure our missile defeses would not intercept an attack by them but they can be certain our response would wipe Iran off the map. Even if they are fanatical nuts and even if they are suicidal they must be first certain of success against Israel before risking and incurring their own destruction. They would need to fire simultaneously up to twenty nukes at us to be certain of one or two hitting the mark.
The basic rule in a nuclear confrontation is use them or lose them; therefore should a need arise whereby they need be used, all must be used at designated targets. Part of what Pollard delivered to Israel were the targeting codes of the USA. Since then Israel has I am sure developed her own along similar lines and scenarios. The Jericho 3 ensures that there is no target on the globe that can’t become a target for Israeli ICBM’s. Add our nuke armed subs with cruise missiles puts us in the major leagues as to our military capabilities.
“In Mahabharata’s words, we can light thousands of suns. With a push of a red button”
If you are a cyber detective, show me your badge!
You may be correct using the narrowest definition, accuse me of plagiarizing but if my intent was to plagiarize why would I have included the link? As to listing authorship? There is none listed only the name of the blog, IUN, Israel Uncensored News, whose link to I supplied, for any novice to understand and link to.
Since it seems to be a recurring complaint on your part re: specific posts of mine to a certain blog why don’t you follow me around the net and where you see I have omitted any relevant attributions supply them yourself. Report me to the cyber police, sue me if you think you have standing in any court willing to hear and accept your complaint. Then I will have your real name and address. 8) Nuff said Kapish?
Not to put too fine a point on it, I would submit that throughout the last half century, Israel has demonstrated what responsibility means with respect to its nuclear programs and strategies. Neither has it used any alleged nuclear weapons it may have, nor has it THREATENED any enemy or perceived foe with destruction while pursuing nuclear policies. Which, is not the case with Iran or Syria.
Dunno.
It looks to me as if we destroy something that makes the enemy more than likely to destroy us, that destruction caused by us is OK.
I am not going to start arguing about what capabilities do we have or not. I know we are fully capable if well led, to make a mess out of the Iranians and anyone else joining them.
There is a vast misunderstanding about special explosive devices that penetrate deep into solid rock, concrete and even steel.
There is no exclusive need to destroy laboratoris, stocks, processingg equipment underground.
A tactical size penetrating nuclear device can cause terrific damage by just causing huge amounts of rock and radioactive sumps to block either entrance or exit to the sites for years.
As to the nuclear reactor in Iran, that is the Bushehr one, the plutonium laboratory reactor donated by the US to the Shah is not included, the moment Iran tries to launch a nuclear device or any WMD against us, the Iranian reactor becomes legitimate target.
That would be the end of Iran and a huge disaster all around but we cannot forego that.
Yamit 82,
Why have you not provided the information about who has written this article?
By not doing so, you are guilty of plagiarism, as the only name appearing is yours.
And you have not written it.
Why attack Iran now?
Given the recent spate of reports on Obama’s approval for the attack on Iran, it s a good time to ask, what such operation could accomplish?
Bushehr reactor is up and running. No one is going to destroy an operational reactor loaded with 80 tons of HEU. An attack on other nuclear sites would give Iran a pretext to refuse returning spent rods to Russia and reprocess them instead into plutonium.
Some of Iran’s HEU is removed from the known locations. It is highly unlikely that we would destroy all the stocks. Iran also began transferring nuclear-related equipment to bunkers.
Bombing the centrifuges is doable, but what’s the point? Iran will set up new centrifuges in two years max. And after the first attack proves futile in the long run, assembling a coalition for the second raid would be problematic.
Destroying dual use factories would serve no good, either. Flush with oil profits, Iran would rebuild them soon with newer technologies.
Bombing of Iran does not stop nuclear programs of North Korea and Pakistan. Both’ nuclear stocks are unknown and stored in unknown locations. Iran can well procure its bomb from them, especially from Pakistani military. That’s assuming that four nuclear warheads missing from Ukraine are not already in Iran.
Any sensible plan for dealing with Iranian nukes would involve armed rebellion: by Kurds, Jundallah, Azeris perhaps, and Afghan border tribes. But instead, the US helps Turkey to suppress the Kurds.
As for the operation itself, it should be relatively easy. The stories of Iranian air defenses are grossly inflated; Iranian operators are notoriously inept with reasonably capable Russian SAMs, and even those Israel can both jam electronically and saturate with multiple missiles attack. Besides, the CIA won’t miss a chance to bribe Iranian generals the way the agency dealt with Saddam and Gadhafi.
One nice corollary of attacking Iran is that Israel would have to preemptively destroy arsenals of Hamas and Hezbollah, and at least warn Syria. At any rate, Assad won;t provoke NATO retaliation by attacking Israel to avenge Iran. He also remembers that Iran did not avenge the destruction of Assad’s nuclear program four years ago.
If Israel were to just hit most of the oil fields in the ME thew environmental consequences would spell the end of all life forms on earth.
1 + 1 =0 If Israel were to unleash her nukes on the ME.
What are electromagnetic effects (Electromagnetic Pulse or EMP)?
See Nuclear Weapon EMP Effects
Ionizing radiation from the fireball produces intense currents and electromagnetic fields, usually referred to as the electromagnetic pulse (EMP). This pulse is felt over very large distances. A single high-yield nuclear detonation will create destructive EMP over hundreds of thousands of square kilometers beneath where the explosion occurs.
EMP from high-yield nuclear detonations will subject electrical grids to voltage surges far exceeding those caused by lightning. Modern VLSI chips and microprocessors, present in most communication equipment. TVs, radios, computers and other electronic equipment are extremely sensitive to these surges and immediately get burnt out. Thus all possible communication links to the outside world are cut off. Restoring these facilities will be an arduous (and expensive) task assuming that the infrastructure required to complete this task would still exist following a nuclear war.
Warplanners consider the EMP from the detonation of a high-yield warhead as capable of disrupting the entire communication system of their nation, and in this way a single missile launch could begin a nuclear war.
What are the effects on climate?
Massive absorption of warming sunlight by a global smoke layer would cause Ice Age temperatures on Earth.
NASA computer models predict 40% of the smoke would stay in the stratosphere for 10 years. There the smoke would also destroy much of the protective ozone layer and allow dangerous amounts of UV light to reach the Earth’s surface.
Half of 1% of the explosive power of the deployed nuclear arsenal can create nuclear darkness. 100 Hiroshima-size weapons exploded in the large cities of India and Pakistan would put 5 million tons of smoke in the stratosphere and drop average global temperatures to Little Ice Age levels. Shortened growing seasons could cause up to 1 billion people to starve to death.
A large nuclear war could put 150 million tons of smoke in the stratosphere and make global temperatures colder than they were 18,000 years ago during the coldest part of the last Ice Age. Killing frosts would occur every day for 1-3 years in the large agricultural regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Average global precipitation would be reduced by 45%. Earth’s ozone layer would be decimated. Growing seasons would be eliminated. (This does not factor in hit on oil fields)
A large nuclear war would utterly devastate the environment and cause most people to starve to death. Already stressed ecosystems would collapse. Deadly climate change, radioactive fallout and toxic pollution would cause a mass extinction event, eliminating humans and most complex forms of life on Earth.
Nuclear darkness: http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/reducedgrowingseasons3yearspostconflict150/
Israel never has said it was unjust. Justice, no matter what definition you attribute to the term has nothing to do with Israel’s position re” any enemy attaining weapons of Mass destruction especially nukes with credible delivery systems. Basic logic should dictate that due to Israels small size and population density that any nuclear threat is potentially apocalyptic for almost all Israelis. When any avowed enemy states publicly that their intention is to wipe you literally off the map and pursues Nuclear weapons capability against the expressed opposition not only of Israel but the whole community of nations, with a few exceptions, it’s a nobrainer that Israel should do whatever it can to deny those enemies that capability.
Israel developed her nukes in light of our geopolitical and geography as a deterrent and has never overtly threatened anyone with with their use. In fact Israel has never admitted having Nukes.
Ah!
Now that Guy ‘splains it to us I feel much better.
But of course they will face terrible upheavals after they produce some nuclear bombs.
Recognizing their futil work they will then turn into peace loving Ayatholas? and even Ahmedinachub will repent. We could then send Peres, Sarid, Beilin, Livni, Beinish by then retired, Barak, etc, to start another “peace process”.
Nuts!
I have no idea.
Ted, Can you explain why my comments 4 and 5 were put in moderation?
Sanctions can never be enforced sufficiently to either cripple or deter any modern regime, especially one whose major export is energy. There is nothing that can’t be bought given that one is prepared to pay the price. As long as Russia and China oppose sanctions or play a double game of agreeing but supplying through backdoor or under the table arrangements Iran might feel an itch but it won’t deter them. The Europeans and even Americans will continue to supply Iran with their needs as they have till now. Billions in industrial, construction projects, military procurement and tenders insure non conformance of any sanctions.
Can anyone see the Europeans in the current economic climate refusing to sell to Iran? American companies will continue to sell to Iran through overseas subsidiaries as has GE and HP among a myriad of others?
Even regime change will based on all we know not change Iran’s efforts and motivation in acquiring THE BOMB! Especially since they already are so close to making one.
Israel India N Korea and Pakistan developed and built their initial nukes in secret. Iran is quite transparent about theirs. I havle long asked the question of why they are so open in the intentions. One reason could be is that the project is widely supported by all Iranian factions and is a tool to instill national unity. If this is the case than all of what Bechor claims is wishful thinking and he isn’t as smart as I used to give him credit.
Israel And Its Enemies: Future Wars And Forceful Options (First of Three Parts)
Louis René Beres
The following originally appeared in The Jewish Press in March 1992.Today, nearly twenty years later, its arguments remain timely and valid.
Read More
Yes, it is OK for Israel to have ample reserves of all sorts of nuclear weapons, not belong to arms control commissions, and verbalize how unjust it is for foreign countries to have similar weapons as Israel does. Come now, are we suddenly blind? Our diversity is not always our strength, is it? We have many political parties, it makes agreement difficult at times. We must look at ourselves very deeply, why do many of us have some resistance to seeing things as they really are? Can we live in a world that hates us and wishes for our demise constantly? Where are our champions of liberty, freedom, truthfulness, those things that curiously exist alongside our belligerence?
India and Pakistan were also initially boycotted and isolated after developing the nukes. Now they are respected.
I hope you are right. But as they say, there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded and cornered tiger.