Iran’s goals

By Mordechai Ben-Menachem

Escalation of Red Sea tensions, with the little US/UK attack on Houthi positions since the start of Operation Prosperity Guardian, has diverted many tankers from the Suez Canal and Red Sea transits. Brent futures traded above $80 per barrel. The shipping industry is tilting towards a blanket ban on Bab el Mandeb Strait transits; the rise in oil and gas is far from over; the cost of chartering a Very Large Cargo Container ship, from the United States to Asia, jumped to more than $10 million, up 25% week-on-week.

1. A) Protect the theocratic regime at ALL costs. B) Eliminate Israel, hopefully by genocide of the entire Jewish population (Arabs/Palestinians are inconsequential and can live or die). C) Eject the United States from the entire ME. Everything Iran does itself or via proxies, serves these 3 goals.

Thursday, the US ship “St Nikolas”, carrying Iraqi oil for Turkey, was hijacked near Oman by the pirate nation of Iran and forced to Iranian harbour, in Iranian retaliation for US bombing of Houthis. In parallel, Iran implemented a massive attack in Oman, against Britain. This is very consequential because historically, Oman has been the go-to negotiator for the entire region. Attacking “everyone’s favourite neutral” seems very strange. All this is, of course, after Iran has attacked US bases in Iraq and Syria well over 100 times and US Red Sea shipping tens of times. The US still pretends that Iran is not driving this.

Apropos strange, Sweden is trying to join NATO, Turkey is blocking them. Apparently, the Swedish Defence Minister has just enjoined Swedish citizenry to ‘prepare for war’ — Sweden has not fought a war in 200 years. The adversary apparently remains unspecified.

Prior to 7 Oct, the alliance of Israel and Arab states was emerging; Gulf States desperately need Israeli technology and expertise to diverge economically from hydrocarbons. Israel is a significant NG exporter, aligning Israeli economic interests with other energy exporters. Iran strongly needs to shatter that alliance, an effort that has so far failed despite US efforts to bluff and posture. The Red Sea attacks are as much a direct assault on Egypt, Saudi and possibly UAE, than Israel.

Canal revenues are about 10% of the total Egyptian budget. Prolonged disruption of canal traffic could destabilize the government, giving Iran leverage against the Egyptian government, at a relatively modest cost, of a few ‘extraneous’ Arabs.

This, while also threatening proximate pipelines used by both Arab States.

Israel’s economy is far less dependent on Asian trade through the Bab el-Mandeb.

Another front is being introduced

Iran is openly sponsoring terrorist activities in Morocco to create a capability to impact Gibraltar. If this happens, and Iran gains control of three of the world’s chokepoints: Hormuz, Gibraltar and Bab el Mandeb, Iran would then have more actual naval power than the United States. This would be the largest-scale US strategic retreat since the Spanish-American War, since 1898.

So far, the US’ imitation coalition in the Red Sea has been a bluff. Iran understands bluffs.

The US announced withdrawal of the Gerald Ford carrier strike group from the Mediterranean, once again reducing American ME presence and permitting (or encouraging) Iran to intensify its activities against erstwhile US allies, while signalling to Saudis and Emiratis fecklessness throughout the region.

Israel must achieve decisive Gaza victory with the death of Hamas’ leadership and supporters, but this is only one small piece of a much broader war.

Iran is well-beyond ‘just’ driving a successful wedge between its adversaries! It is openly at war with the United States and Americans have not noticed. This is not the “US–Led World Order” issue. This is full-scale war againt ALL US interests as a maritime nation.

Unless and until the US and etc. process that this is a world War, and establish real consequences for Iran, the US will continue to lose and weaken, more-and-more.

The world is going NUTS!