Iran Signals Its Readiness for a Final Confrontation

Lt.-Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, JCPA

SUMMARY

Since the publication of the November 2011 IAEA report, which explicitly spotlights Iran’s plans to build nuclear weapons, senior figures of the Iranian regime and the state-run media have begun to use threatening, defiant, and sometimes contemptuous language toward Israel and the United States.

From Iran’s standpoint, an ongoing, head-on confrontation with the U.S. and Israel would serve its purposes in the region and build its image as a key actor that stands firm against the West and provides an alternative agenda to reshape the Middle East. Hence, compromise has almost ceased to be an option for Iran.

The current round of the conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel over Iran’s (military) nuclear program should be seen in a much wider context, one that centers on shaping a new landscape in the Middle East. Iran views itself as “the next big thing” in the region and behaves accordingly-at the moment with no significant challenge or response from the United States and the West.

If in the past Iran held clandestine contacts with Islamic movements, mainly from North African Arab states, on Sudanese soil (such as Ennadha, which has now won the Tunisian elections), it can now openly boost its influence in countries where the “U.S.-supported dictators” have fallen.

Iran no longer fears openly acknowledging that it has built capabilities for reacting to an attack-including the Palestinian organizations in Gaza and Hizbullah in Lebanon-and depicts them as part of its defensive strategy and response in case of a confrontation with Israel and the United States.

At home, the growing strength of the Revolutionary Guards enables them to increasingly influence foreign policy and mainly to export the revolution in ways not seen in the past. The top commanders of its elite Quds Force are emerging from the shadows and will have a key role in the future struggle against the U.S. and its remaining allies in the region, particularly Israel. Iran, as its president said, is preparing for the “final confrontation.”

CONTINUE

HERE ARE SOME EXCERPTS

The Iranian president claims further that the United States aims to safeguard the “Zionist entity,” but will fail in that endeavor because this entity has no place in the Middle East and is destined for extinction. If, Ahmadinejad suggests, the peoples of the region were to hold a referendum on the Zionist entity’s existence among them, it is clear what the results would be. “This entity can be compared to a kidney transplanted into a body that has rejected it…it has no place in the region and the countries will soon get rid of it and expel it from the region…it will collapse and its end will be near.”7

A BIG Bluff

Iranian propaganda claims that the talk about attacking it is not serious “because no such option really exists,” and that the real aim of such talk is only to encourage tougher sanctions-with poor chances of success given Russia and China’s position.

Political and Military Bluff

In an editorial that analyzes the discourse surrounding an attack on Iran (quoting Ha’aretz, The Guardian, and President Shimon Peres), Iran’s conservative Mehr news agency assessed that “the Israelis are trying to set the stage for the imposition of stricter sanctions on Iran.” Mehr observed: “Over the past few days, Western media outlets have created brouhaha about the possibility that the Zionist regime may make a unilateral military strike against Iran.” The article noted, “Israel recently test-fired a ballistic missile, purportedly capable of reaching Iran,” and that “the Israeli military, which is usually secretive about its activities, allowed media people to report on the event.”