– Larry Derfner, Boycott goes primetime in Israel, January 19.
There is, in fact, a groundswell of “elite” (read: Leftist) opinion building in favor of unilateral Israeli withdrawal in the West Bank.
– David Weinberg, The Impatient Israeli Political Left, January 28.
Last June, I published a column, “My prediction: Please help prove it wrong,” in which I warned that “A determined domestic thrust is under way to compress Israel back into its precarious pre-1967 frontiers, imperiling the viability of Jewish sovereignty.”
Three emerging threats
Elaborating on my “strong premonition of dire things to come,” I predicted the emergence of three pernicious and interconnected processes, now materializing with alarming speed before our very eyes.
1. I forecast that the issue of anti-Israel sanctions would be raised with increasing intensity and frequency in the public discourse, and the threat, allegedly because of continued construction (indeed, existence) of Jewish communities across the pre-1967 lines (a.k.a., pejoratively, “settlements”), would be featured with increasing prominence in the mainstream media.
2. I then cautioned that, as a result of this, soon a wide-ranging campaign would be launched against the “settlers,” singling them out as the fundamental cause of the sanctions and casting blame on them for inflicting international isolation and economic pain on the rest of the country.
3. I warned that, as it becomes ever-more apparent that the impasse between Israel and Palestinian Arabs cannot be resolved consensually, Israel’s leaders will begin to capitulate under the perceived pressure of sanctions and embrace the idea of unilateral withdrawal from Judea-Samaria. Since coercive eviction of large numbers of Jews resident in the evacuated areas would be operationally infeasible and politically untenable, I foresaw the adoption of a policy of “benign” abandonment. This would mean that Jewish residents/communities would be left to the tender mercies of some prospective Palestinian regime.
Writing on the wall?
The following are selected predictive excerpts from my June column, which as I shall show later, are being borne out with eerie – and infuriating – accuracy:
“As the growing specter of international… sanctions looms ever larger… public concern will be harnessed to fan the flames of resentment toward the designated cause of these potential punitive measures – the continued Jewish presence across the 1967 Green Line
“… a well-orchestrated campaign to discredit the residents of the Jewish communities of Judea-Samaria will begin. They will be portrayed as the source of economic burden and physical danger to the rest of the population living within the pre-1967 frontiers…
“In parallel, a drive will be launched… to accustom the public to the notion of ‘constructive unilateralism’ [i.e. unilateral withdrawal from virtually all of Judea-Samaria – M.S.] and to persuade it of its acceptability, indeed, inevitability…
“Conferences will be staged with compliant, high-profile participants to impart ‘intellectual depth’ to this shallow, capricious concept; opinion polls will be conducted, with questions carefully crafted to elicit responses that can be portrayed as reflecting widespread public endorsement; opinion pieces will be published/posted and primetime interviews granted in mainstream media channels… with sympathetic editorial policies, to build up pressure on politicians and policy-makers.”
As for the fate of the Jewish residents in communities across the Green Line, I made the following prognoses “… [they] will have to decide: Either accept a modest relocation compensation package or remain where they are, to live under the rule of whatever regime will assume power in the region.”
All coming true…
January was a bad month for common sense, and augured ill for Israel’s future. It was a month which brought an avalanche of corroboration of the dire prophesies I have been making for almost two years in various forums and which I condensed in my column last June.
It is seldom that I agree with anything Larry Derfner (whose controversial column in The Jerusalem Post was terminated following his alleged support for Palestinian terrorists’ rights to massacre Israeli civilians) writes. But this time (see introductory excerpt) Derfner hit the nail squarely on the head. The boycott has indeed gone primetime in Israel.
As if reacting to a well-rehearsed cue, the program unfolded as a carefully choreographed campaign to panic the public and political leadership into believing that unless Israel relinquishes control over virtually all of Judea-Samaria, it will face economic ruin and international ostracism, like South Africa during the apartheid era.
The Channel 2 program Derfner refers to was a classic case study in the use of the mainstream media for political manipulation. Presented by the comely Dana Weiss, the program painted a dour picture of the prospects for Israel’s economy if settlements across the pre- 1967 Green Line continued to exist.
Treacherous Tzipi
Significantly, the only political leader interviewed by Weiss (apart from a brief, somewhat disparaging, glimpse of Deputy Foreign Minister Ze’ev Elkin), was Justice Minister Tzipi Livni.
Livni is a remarkable phenomenon in Israeli politics.
She has demonstrated that, both in her capacity as a party leader and as a government minister, no outcome is too disastrous for her to attain, and apparently no failure is abject enough to disqualify her from holding positions of influence in public life – but that is a subject for another column.
The dialogue in the interview is edifying, if unsurprising.
Livni: If there is one thing that the world does not understand it is the settlements. What will happen…?
Weiss (inviting the false apartheid analogy): South Africa?
Livni (taking the proffered cue, while emotive scenes of Black anti-apartheid demonstrators are screened in the background): Yes! I spoke with some Jews living in South Africa. They said, “We thought we had time. We thought we could deal with it – that we don’t need the world at all costs. It happens suddenly – all at once”
Weiss (offering a generous opening to display political “foresight”): Did you say “Wake up, guys”?
Livni (predictably): I yell it. “Wake up!”
Toward the end of the program Livni reappears, to point an accusatory finger at those who used to be her constituency, while she was building her political career as a hard-line Greater Israel hawk in the Likud: “We have a group whose ideology is Greater Israel… they cannot impose this isolation on us!” Their obstinacy, their proclamations… Every additional statement, every additional house built… is another stone on the wall of isolation that they are building for us!”
Ah, the vagaries of Israeli politics.
You never know when the individual you voted for will turn on you…
Weiss concludes the program on an ominous note, warning that “the looming specter of the approaching boycott is getting ever closer. We can only hope that this time a miracle will occur and we will wake up before it will be too late.”
In other words: We must disown the “settlers,” comply with Palestinian demands and withdraw from Judea-Samaria – posthaste.
National numskull pontificates
True to my warning that “conferences will be staged with compliant, high-profile participants…” to advance the sanctions scaremongering and promote the idea of unilateral withdrawal-cum-settler abandonment, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) held its annual conference this week in Tel Aviv. As usual, Yair Lapid, the numskull who, courtesy of the gullibility and imprudence of the Israeli voter, holds the title of the nation’s finance minister, was a keynote speaker.
Like Livni, he lent legitimacy to the apartheid analogy used so frequently against Israel, stating: “The apartheid regime in South Africa did not notice the starting point of the boycott. We are now at the tipping point in the context of the boycott.” According to Lapid, if Israel is blamed for failure to reach an agreement with the Palestinians, the EU is considering canceling its association agreement with Jerusalem.
Displaying that his grasp of international politics is as sparse as his knowledge of macroeconomics, he pontificated: “If negotiations with the Palestinians will stall or blow up and we will enter the reality of a European boycott… the cost of living will rise, budgets for education, health, welfare and security will be cut, many international markets will be closed to us… [which will] substantially hurt the pocket of every Israeli.”
So now all the Palestinians have to do is show sufficient intransigence to ensure the failure of the talks, in order to inflict massive harm on the Israeli economy.
They sure must appreciate the heads up. Way to go, Yair.
See what I mean by numskull?
Spurious scaremongering
Although Lapid claimed that “…we know… canceling the association agreement with the EU… is already on the table,” the Post reported that “The EU delegation to Israel denied such drastic steps were being considered, saying, ‘There has been absolutely no consideration in the EU of the abrogation of the association agreement. It is not in the cards.’”
This highlights an additional aspect of the perception of the risk of sanctions which I discussed in another column, titled “Sanctions: Don’t blame the EU,” published shortly after the one referred to earlier.
In it I made the point that there is “an array of domestic elements in Israel that are pleased as punch” at the prospect of an EU boycott, since the threat thereof helps promote their anti-settler advocacy, and they thus have a vested interest in increasing the intensity of the danger as perceived by the public.
In light of the EU denial, it would be far from implausible to assign such motivations to Lapid’s threatening declarations.
Unilateralism’s heinous corollary
The specter of settlement-induced sanctions and the emerging recognition that no consensual arrangement with the Palestinians is likely, has, as forecast, led to increasingly frequent endorsement of unilateral withdrawal from virtually all of Judea-Samaria.
At this week’s INSS conference, unilateralism was one of the main themes raised – arguably the central one. In recent weeks, influential voices have joined the chorus endorsing this ill-conceived concept, including former ambassador to the US Michael Oren and former Likud minister Dan Meridor. With generous funding and institutional backing, it is forcing its way into the discourse as a viable policy option, however perilous it may be.
But unilateral withdrawal comes with an even more heinous corollary, the abandonment of Jews in the areas withdrawn from unilaterally. As mentioned, since coercive eviction is unlikely to be feasible, operationally or politically, the option of leaving Jews in the existing communities is, again as predicted, becoming an option that is being discussed – however grotesque a distortion of the Zionist ideal it may be.
It is in this context that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s trial balloon this week should be assessed, when he raised the possibility of leaving Jewish settlers under Palestinian rule.
More cause for concern was an opinion piece this week by veteran journalist Dan Margalit, which carried the approving title “Benefits outweigh the damage” and ended with the chilling words, “Every capital in the world now realizes Netanyahu is seriously considering the idea of keeping [i.e. leaving] some settlements in Palestine.”
Massive political tsunami building
A massive political tsunami is building that is threatening to wash away almost half a century of Zionist endeavor and enterprise.
Although the writing has been on the wall for a considerable time, the Israeli Right has failed to mobilize effectively to confront, contend and counter it. It has continued to behave much as business as usual, at times offering alternatives that make the two-state option look decidedly inviting.
In its failure to rise to the challenge it will bear much the same historic blame for the consequences as do its left-wing adversaries.
Martin Sherman (www.martinsherman.net) is the founder and executive director of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies. (www.strategic-israel.org)
dweller Said:
Darlin, always glad to oblige,I do keep you intriged!!!!!!
@ honeybee:
‘Correct’ me? — but you ‘corrected’ nothing. Nor was correction at that point needed.
— I had already DONE the correcting: by freely acknowledging (and in some detail) the error in the manner of my previously stating the question.
Your comment provided NO ‘correction’ — only an opportunity to poke your nose into an existing exchange for what you flatly admit were insulting intentions. The net effect was only to derail the discussion.
@ honeybee:
Don’t know if you were, in fact, willful & argumentative back then.
But you most surely ARE, now. Case-in-point, above.
dweller Said:
Sugar Darlin, always glad to correct you ,espcially when it’s so badly needed!!!!!
@ honeybee:
That’s me. Glad you like it, Twinkie.
yamit82 Said:
Who, Scarlete Johanson
@ yamit82:
This time I am not on pain-killers when I insult him. Started my painting “Zev” long red tongue, sharp teetn, and glowing eyes.
honeybee Said:
That too!!!!
honeybee Said:
I’m not into sharing.
@ yamit82:
I’ll still bake you Grandma FAhlstrom’s strawberry shortcake,but you’ll have to share with Shy Guy,TX and heaven only who else. The whole bowl was a disapointment game, commercials, half-time. Johanson looked good,but then she’s a half Swedish.
@ honeybee:
Too Bad I didn’t bet but this time I called it right for the right reasons, Point spread was surprising. In my opinion both Manning Bros have been blessed with offensive lines that protected them enough to make them look better than they actually are. Both have been blessed with some of the best receivers in the NFL.
Problem is linemen and receivers never get the credit due them and quarterbacks like Danny Manning make so much money that teams like the Giants don’t have enough $$$$ due to league salary caps to keep or buy enough good players to ensure the team stays on top. There are at least 10 quarterbacks I would pick over either of the manning Bros and for a fraction of the cost.
SHmuel HaLevi 2 Said:
I pray you are wrong.
dweller Said:
You are unbelievably pompous.!!!! Darlin
@ dweller:
This morning it is circulating that, as I suspected, the deal is done and “israel” will surrender. When I reported based on inside information that the Kerry and Netanyahu purported tiff was just a smoke screen, nothing to it, again the folk reacted as if I was fabricating it. They just enjoy being clobbered by the unJews I guess.
I do not have information about any significant Jewish organized resistance.
Also as expected. Iran is completing its program.
We are the most imbecilic, pathetic blowhards ever and we got where we are because we do not know how to kill enemies, internal and external and stand up to the real world. Genetic flaw.
@ Felix Quigley:
From my years spent keeping company with the left, I seem to recall an adage (attributed to Gandhi, or somebody like that), which held that “if the people will lead, the leaders will follow.”
To that I would add that if there are NO suitable leaders on the horizon, then if the people will lead, suitable leaders will EMERGE from amongst the people. (That seems to be the lesson increasingly borne out stateside in the Tea Party.)
Either way, it would seem to me that without the willingness to FIRST do the grunt work of patiently informing the people of the true lay-of-the-land, any-&-all pining for leadership will continue to be a pipedream.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
Bluntness no problem; I prefer it.
The real question, however, is where you can find Jews with the requisite determination and testicular fortitude you (rightly) seek
— in the absence of an educational program of the sort that would promote those virtues & outlook.
Most Israeli Jews are already militarily trained, so THAT part is hardly problematic — it’s getting TO them (and in a substantive way) that seems to be the issue here; yes?
@ yamit82:
Understood. Actually, when I got home after the blogging session where I posted that question, I realized that I’d stated it in a less inclusive way than I intended; my error.
When I think “rights,” I automatically ASSUME that term to include INTERESTS. Many people, however, depending on backgound & personal or communal history, may not; they separate the concepts.
But communicating effectively in print means one’s writing must “translate” the individualized mental shorthand in which each of us thinks (e.g., in my case, rights presuming also interests) into phraseology that OTHERS not accustomed to the writer’s mental shorthand can readily grasp w/o misunderstanding (since the readers’ OWN mental shorthand is DIFFERENT & peculiar to them).
I should have asked the question THIS way:
Is anybody undertaking a serious, coordinated organizing effort at internal, nationwide hasbara — educating the Israeli citizenry as to its rights and INTERESTS?
Yes, I realize this. Didn’t mean to imply, however, that an effort of the sort I was suggesting be conducted by the govt (or any agency of it); govt always have their own agenda & their own priorities — can never be trusted.
Clearly, it would have to be an entirely private project, relying on govt neither for talent nor for funding nor for anything else. (Much the way Chabad does for its own agenda, and like several pre-State agencies did in the early decades of the 20th century.)
Quite so. There’s a line from I-forget-whom (maybe JFK?) about how doing the RIGHT thing, howsoever apparently problematic, often turns out to have been the truly expedient thing as well.
yamit82 Said:
I don’t due well with authority!!!!! Your goin to have fine another girl!!!!
SHmuel HaLevi 2 Said:
I was always accused of being a disobidiant,willfull, and arguementative child,I was rather proud.
CuriousAmerican Said:
Enslave the Palis and sell them to Russia,there that something!
@ dweller:
In my view the “habarah” angle is not a principal. Forgiving the bluntness, what we need is hard and militarily trained, determined Jews and above all, collective balls to retake control. I doubt there are stocks of either one.
Sorry but I now understand how we marched right into the Holocaust in Europe.
dweller Said:
Again No, at least any I know of.
For most our rights are a given. Rights have little to do with willingness or unwillingness to bow to power or the dictated of power either internally or externally.
Ask most Israelis if the West Bank is Jewish Land they will say yes But we don’t want the Arabs either. We don’twant to be their Masters or for them to be integrated into our society so they may want the land but not the Arabs and if they are told repeatedly that we can’t hold on to those lands because it’s immoral to control Arabs and the world especially America and Europe are so against and threaten us then they accept reluctantly or happily depending on their political and social world view, that we have to give them up. Most Jews have never been to Jerusalem no less any part of the West Bank. Most Jews due to yearly travel outside of the country on vacations are more familiar with Turkey and Europe than they are with Y&S. Exceptions were when Saddam sent Scuds into Tel Aviv many of those who didn’t or couldn’t leave the country ran to Y&S for safety, the same with the second Lebanese war. The West bank is only a 20 min drive from Tel Avis and a five min drive from Kfar Saba, Hedera and Netanya. They are like bedroom communities for the Gush Dan region and so is Jerusalem.
Hard to have a standardized education curriculum when every 2-3 years a new minister of education comes in with a new government and change the emphasis in curriculum depending left right or religious government and minister. If you have to get out of Dodge quickly then the West Bank should be the place of choice for residents in the center of the country and Jerusalem. That alone should be a reason to hold on to the territories we have no depth. Even population disbursement in case of being nuked gives us a better chance of survival and or surviving the expected big earthquake due at any time ( Israel sits on two major faults). Building in Y&S are most single story dwellings and those in the Israel interior are multistory buildings.
There are many reasons to hold on but the main one is it’s ours. Yet the majority I believe will go along with whatever the government decides, Most Israelis are not very Zionist or ideological. Patriotic yes but not very ideological. Every poll shows overwhelming majority don’t believe the Arabs want peace therefore Peace is not possible but if BB comes up with a deal and can spin it so it’s believable most Israelis will hop on to the spin.
Democracy allows people to vote their own demise.
@ yamit82:
You use the expression, “mafia,” FIGURATIVELY here? — or literally?
@ yamit82:
I agree.
Again, I agree.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
Is anybody undertaking a serious, coordinated organizing effort at internal, nationwide hasbara — educating the Israeli citizenry as to its rights?
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
SOCIALISM!!!!!!!!!!!!
@ dweller:
There is no free media in Israel. Nor a single mainstream channel is solely directed to uphold Jewish national interests. At best iron locked “interviews'” by poison anchors and limited to a few minutes.
Radio Free Israel would do a job but we cannot get a license no matter what. Somehow the Licensing Authority seem controlled by… Livni and others who periodically rotate at that post.
Last night I watched a shopping network. They selling Israeli Jewlery [ ready nice jewlery] and the Israeli almost sold out. They will return in March. Americans are becoming increasinly bored with boycotts.
Are there no challenges inside Israel asks Dweller. Answer is NO and where have you been for 20 years!
Yamit and Martin Sherman are on the same page in one respect. They are both denying the key need of leadership and are blaming the valiant Israeli people for the situation, rather than blame the lack of alternative leadership
Ted Belman though left Toronto and is now lost in the challenges faced by the Jewish people but Yamit consoles him…you see Belman is lost in Israel. Keeping Yamit company what a pair!
Let me be frank Yamit and Belman….it is as bad to be lost in Toronto as in Israel and vice versa.
How Yamit and Sherman agree so fundamentally
“True to my warning that “conferences will be staged with compliant, high-profile participants…” to advance the sanctions scaremongering and promote the idea of unilateral withdrawal-cum-settler abandonment, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) held its annual conference this week in Tel Aviv. As usual, Yair Lapid, the numskull who, courtesy of the gullibility and imprudence of the Israeli voter, holds the title of the nation’s finance minister, was a keynote speaker.”
The “Israeli voter” is a meaningless and obnoxious term, there is no such creature as “the voter” in any country on earth.
And they are not so gullible though some may be. And they are not so imprudent either.
The problem is they have no leadership as Ted continues on his lost trail
And Yamit never built anything in 1982 in Sinai against Begin, and nothing at all since.
But he is very much like Joe McCarthy he specialises in telling lies against Marxism.
By the way Livni is not left, she specialises in representing more and more the Israeli bourgeoisie. Peres is not Labour, not for labour and never was. He also represents Big Business and always has.
Get your terms at least right.
As things progress it is not just Israel that is in crisis it is also Belman, Yamit, and all others including Feiglin and above all Sherman, although Sherman does have the virtue of admitting his bankruptcy. He talks but can DO nothing.
CuriousAmerican says:
J
Could be true but then you are assuming that anything we do won’t also cause a lot of damage and even more so.
Wrong assumption, doing nothing may be the best option.
Again that depends on too many variables to make such a definitive statement.
List all of what you consider to be the worst that can happen to Israel if we don’t do something as you intimate,( Israel being proactive ).
Doing nothing is something as it allows a different set of outcomes to play itself out. Like the Palis imploding under the strain of internal divisions and economic meltdown. Hamas taking over the West Bank forcing Israel to reconquer and hold, even annex all of the territory which could occur whether we accede to the Kerry deal or not. Abbas is now serving the 9th year of a 4 year term and has no constituency or standing in the Palis community. If BB screws up we remove him by elections if Abbas screws up they kill him. Many predict a Global economic meltdown worse than in 2008 in 2014 or 2015. If it materializes who will pay for any deals implementation? Low estimates around 100 billion dollars and high estimate double or more if refugees are included.
Even if my doom expectation don’t materialize who will pay?
Historically in such global crisis the outcomes are global wars. Time is on Israels side as no matter what the threats of the EU and America events could overtake them where any threats against Israel will pale against what is going to happen to them. If the EU and most of the rest of the world melts down economically then any economic threats against Israel become mute.
Israel is better off anticipating what seems to be coming and to do whatever we can to shield ourselves from it’s fallout on us. That means above all finding alternatives to the EU and American markets ASAP. At least for the first time we are now energy self sufficient and food self sufficient.
China has big problems and Japan is a Mess. Inflation in India almost 12% and rising The EU and the PIGS are worse off today than ever. People are rioting in every country and unemployment for under 25’s is around 40%. France in now Bankrupt. 15 Euro zone countries want out of the Euro. American Banks are on life support and will demand more bailouts soon. Obama care could be the nail that sinks America, along with accelerated tapering and rising interest rates. Already 30 yr. bond rates are over 3% and money is flowing out of emerging markets looking for safe havens. That’s what is happening to Turkey today. Money is running out of Turkey into Europe propping up the Euro but that will end soon. Argentina and Brazil are going belly up and the people will start overturning respective governments and taking to the streets.. Why would stupid Ukrainian s still want to be members of the collapsing EU? Iran is now positioned to reap Huge economic investments and still get their bomb. If they start producing oil again it will hurt the Saudis as the combination of lower global demand and more product will drive prices lower.
Fukishima is a world disaster and is poisoning the Pacific Ocean with high radio active material. Every central Bank including China is printing and flooding respective countries with fiat money debasing every currency in the world ( Israel one of the few exceptions) we are not printing but accumulating vast amt. of others hard currency and precious metals in reserve.
The Bank of Israel is sitting today on over 100 Billion dollars in just $$$ denominations and that does not include other currencies or metals. Unlike Americans Israelis are savers and there are trillions of shekels in savings schemes. While Social security is bankrupt, National Insurance in Israel has more money in reserve than the Bank of Israel. Don’t belittle little Israel, today Israel has a trillion dollar economy and we can take hits. Those hits will force our economy and government to restructure on a sounder economic model, more efficient, less wasteful and forcing all of us to be even more efficient, resourceful and inventive. That’s exactly what the result was due to the Arab boycott up to the year 2000.
Last year when Israel put out a tender for Jet trainers there was a global war between Italy and Korea for the deal and it only for a billion dollars. The attempted boycott of Israels soda stream has given it so much free advertising that instead of hurting the company it has actually helped. Europe alone cannot bring the Israeli economy down. There is nothing we purchase from Europe that cannot be replaced elsewhere and we purchase more from Europe than we sell to it.
What would be the economic cost to Israel if we agreed to the Kerry plans and it goes south???? How much would that hurt The Israeli economy? Do you have any ideas and estimates????
dweller Said:
No!!
The mafia controls everything, the money and the message and almost all of the politicians.
No country in the world has more concentration of wealth and business as does Israel.
Kerry may address Israeli public on peace deal
US Secretary of State John Kerry is reaching the last stretch of the first round (out of 12 at least) of the hopeless boxing match he is waging against the bitter fate in the Middle East. Kerry’s paper will probably be called Terms of Reference, which is not easily translatable into Hebrew. Several alternative and loose translations are possible — such as “principles of reference,” “an agreed-upon basis for discussion” or “negotiation guidelines” — and with them just as many variations.
Israeli and Palestinian Business Leaders Urge Two-State Solution
They traveled to Davos to pressure BB to agree to Kerry’s plan.
Are there no significant media challenges to this stuff, these days, from within Israel?
I know many here like to say the boycott is not working.
Wrong. It is a nightmare. Even when it loses, it creates a lot of damage.
You are going to have to do something about the Palestinian issue.
Doing nothing is no longer an option.
Whatever you do …just do something.