T. Belman. Sherman is right of course in advocating for Israel’s continued ownership of Judea and Samaria but is wrong to suggest that Jordan is a “conservative pro-Western” monarchy. Currently Jordan is aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood who have their Head Office there. They are also aligned with Turkey, Qatar and Iran even though it is subsidized by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Thus it is likely that if the King falls, it will be Iran that takes over. Unfortunately that aligns Jordan with the Biden administration which is looking to follow in Obama’s footsteps. The Hashemites depend on the two state solution so that Jordan doesn’t become the Palestinian state.
Mudar Zahran is advocating the Jordan become the Palestinian state. And he would be very pro-Western and pro Abrahamic Accords.
By MARTIN SHERMAN
Israel could face a situation, where along its lengthiest border, there would no longer be a conservative, pro-Western monarchy, but an extreme Muslim regime, with incandescent hostility towards the Jewish state
There is nothing certain, but the uncertain. ~ Traditional Proverb.
Incoming media reports from Jordan indicate that the clash within the royal family earlier this week has now been resolved…or quashed.
Swirling shrouds of suspicion & uncertainty
However, much uncertainty still shrouds the recent events in the Hashemite monarchy as to whether there was a genuine attempt at a coup, led by King Abdallah’s half-brother and former crown prince, Hamzah bin Hussein; or a pre-emptive power play by the king himself against his recalcitrant sibling.
Prince Hamzah was Jordan’s heir apparent for five years after his father, King Hussein, died in 1999. But in 2004, King Abdullah stripped him of his title, later appointing his then-teenage son, Prince Hussein bin Abdullah, as crown prince.
Amid conflicting reports that Hamzah had been placed under house arrest—and following a number of high-level arrests allegedly linked to a coup attempt– he accused the Jordanian leadership of corruption, incompetence and harassment in a video conveyed to the BBC.
Hamzah denied that he was part of any initiative to undermine the regime, and although the military had claimed that he was not under house arrest, it did disclose that he had been ordered to stop actions that could be used to harm Jordan’s “security and stability“.
Lingering tensions in the palace & in the streets
Jordan’s deputy prime minister, Ayman Safadi, accused the prince of liaising with foreign parties regarding the destabilization of the country, claiming that he had been under surveillance for some time.
Significantly, whatever truly transpired, it was serious enough for other regional states such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as the United States, to pledge their support for the king.
Although it seems that for the moment matters have been smoothed over, with Hamzah signing a letter, stating: “I place myself in the hands of his majesty the king… I will remain committed to the constitution of the dear Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan“, tensions —designated by some as “unprecedented”—still remain.
Indeed, the affair is considered so sensitive that a ban, imposed on all news outlets and social media platforms, has been placed on any public discussion of it, as well as on all images and video clips related to the inquiry.
With few natural resources, Jordan is a country beset by a myriad of domestic problems, crumbling infrastructure, a hopelessly overloaded welfare system, inundated by refugees fleeing war-torn neighbors, widespread civil discontent and frequent protests, all exacerbated by a raging COVID-19 pandemic.
According to CNN, poverty and unemployment are at record levels and have driven Jordanians to the streets. However, “tolerance for protests has diminished significantly”—increasing the likelihood of further instability and disaffection with the leadership.
Topographical barriers and security
All of this throws—or at least should throw—into sharp relief one factor, often overlooked in the press reports covering the developments there—with far-reaching security implications for Israel and the feasibility of a prospective Palestinian state.
This is the crucial importance for Israel of the possibility—the more austere some might say, the probability—of a regime change in its eastern neighbor, and the attendant significance of the territory usually allotted for a future Palestinian state—namely, the highlands of Judea and Samaria (aka the “West Bank”).
This territory towers above Israel’s heavily populated coastal plain, controls the approaches to Greater Tel Aviv, dominates crucial infrastructure installations and systems—including Israel’s only international airport, Ben Gurion, sits atop vital water resources, and abuts the Trans-Israel Highway, the major thoroughfare connecting the North of the country with the South.
These highlands are the sole topographical barrier between Jordan and Israel’s crowded coastal megalopolis. Any forces—regular or renegade—deployed on them will have complete topographical command and control over all of central Israel, with the ability to disrupt daily life at will—making it impossible to maintain any semblance of social and commercial routine.
Topography & security (cont.)
Accordingly, as any prospective Palestinian state will be sandwiched between Israel in the West and Jordan in the East, it matters greatly whether Jordan is ruled by a government that strives to reign in forces hostile to Israel or one that is indifferent to their aggressive intent—or worse, is willingly complicit with it.
If the monarchy falls, or is even sufficiently weakened, so as to become a mere puppet regime of more powerful radical forces, Israel could find itself in a dire situation.
For along its Eastern border, there may no longer be a conservative, relatively moderate pro-Western monarchy but in all likelihood, an extreme Muslim regime with an incandescent hostility towards the Jewish state. This will make the highlands of Judea & Samaria (“West Bank”) even more crucial for Israel’s security.
Avoiding the nightmare
The underlying lesson for Israeli policymakers is that the country’s working assumption must be that the Hashemite Kingdom has a limited shelf-life and it would be wildly imprudent to base any long-term strategic planning on its long-term durability.
Consequently, Israeli strategic planners must prepare blueprints for the country to contend with a daunting situation in which—along its longest frontier and narrowest dimension—it is confronted with a huge expanse of hostile territory, stretching from the fringes of Greater Tel Aviv to the border of Iraq—and perhaps beyond.
As Israel has little to no ability to determine who will—and who will not—rule Jordan, the only way it can avoid this potential nightmare scenario is to ensure continued its own control of these highlands—which ipso facto—precludes the establishment of a future Palestinian state on them.
Martin Sherman is the founder & executive director of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies
@ sherman:
Thank yo for responding…Israel would have to do something it has never done before. That is..punish the Arabs in a way that would destroy any ambition they had other than to survive.
Israel has always had the iron fist, but in a velvet glove which was never taken off. Not since Ben Gurion’s day., when Israel’s very survival was at stake. They nearly messed it up in 1973. But today, can you visualise any realistic, possible scenario in which Israel could lose control of J&S to the extent of abandoning the posts on the Heights.-I can’t..
And, surely, a Palestinian State could not be established without Israel’s aquiescence regardless of whatever pressures the US might r. It might lead to Israel placing less reliance on the US than in the past and turning more eastwards whenre strong allies await. All speculative of course but nice to think about.
@ Edgar G.:
The point is not an attack by Jordan. But a willing and complicit infrastructure for ongoing insurgency into Judea&Samaria
Which are dependant on Israel retaining control of J & S and the prevention of the establishment of a Palestinian state
@ Bear Klein:
He’s “teaching his grandmother how to suck eggs”. This isn’t a Sherman article, merely a poorly cobbled together small selection of well known facts, already discussed and dissected down to the bone, over the past many years.
Israel certainly HAS contingency plans for any attacks from Jordan. The Heights have enough observation posts pointing at Jordan and surrounds. There is less than a handful of routes through the heights. We’ve seen this mentioned many times. Israel’s only problem there, may be an often displayed complacency.
Surprisingly insipid article. Esecially after his last one which was excellent. I noticed that Mudar Zahran was conspicuous by the complete absense of his name and his intended goals.
Nothing he said was new to us. Perhaps his last effort exhausted him. He can and has been much better.
Martin, is correct Israel must maintain military control of Judea/Samaria and the highlands. It must also be prepared if a hostile entity takes over Jordan.