By Martin Sherman, IISS
“Jordan sees largest anti-government protests in years” “Al Jazeera ”, June 4,2018.
“Jordanians take to the streets to protest austerity measures” CNN, June 4, 2018
“Jordan: thousands protest against IMF-backed austerity measures”, -“The Guardian , June 3, 2018
These are merely a small sample of the international media coverage of the wide spread unrest and protests against new IMF mandated austerity measures, that rocked the kingdom of Jordan last month. They raised troubling questions as to the long term durability of the country’s incumbent monarchical regime and of the ruling Hashemite dynasty.
Jury still out?
In response to public anger at the austerity measures, King Abdallah, the third member of the Hashemite line to rule Jordan since its inception in 1946, replaced his prime minster and ordered a review of the IMF prescribed reforms.
The jury is still out on whether these steps will placate public anger—and if so for how long. For, with persistently high unemployment (now hovering just under 20%), a national debt reaching 95% , rising inflation (the highest in years), sluggish growth and increasing poverty, Jordan faces daunting domestic socio-economic challenges.
However, beyond its own internal woes, the kingdom has been plagued by severe external problems induced by the tribulations of others in the turbulent region in which it is located. Thus, the war in Syria–and earlier in Iraq– led to a deluge of refugees into the hapless country—straining its social services to their very limits.
None of this augurs well for future stability—and even if reports that most of the public ire has been directed at the government rather than the king are true—there seems scant room for optimism as to what is to come.
Crucial strategic terrain
One of the possible repercussions of the challenge to the stability of the Hashemite regime, that has received meager attention in the public discourse, is the potential impact that political upheaval in Jordan may have on the feasibility of Donald Trump’s “ultimate deal” Mid-East peace plan which is rumored to be announced soon.
This is particularly pertinent with regard to the practicality and prudence of any territorial concessions this plan may call on Israel to make. After all, the identity of a prospective successor to the current incumbent regime in Amman is of tremendous consequence to Israel.
In the past, I have been at pains to convey, as graphically as possible, the crucial strategic significance of the territory designated for any envisioned Palestinian state—whatever its precise geographical parameters—have for Israel (see for example, here and here).
For the most part, this territory comprises limestone hills, that rise above Israel’s heavily populated coastal plain, and totally dominate the country’s major population centers (where around 80% of the civilian population resides and 80% of Israel’s commercial activity takes place).
Crucial terrain (Cont.)
The same is true for a large portion of Israel’s vital infrastructure systems and installations (military and civilian) – including many of the country’s military airfields, IDF bases and its only international airport, Ben Gurion; its major seaports and naval bases; much of its principle transportation axes (road and rail); important desalination plants and water conveyance systems; power generating facilities; as well as crucial centers of civilian government and military command.
All of these would be in range of cheap, primitive weapons, readily available to renegade non-state actors (read “radical terror groups”)—of the kind already being used against Israel from territories relinquished by Israel in the past—who could at will disrupt Israel’s ability to maintain any semblance of socio-economic routine in the heart of the country. Clearly, such weapons could be used from any territory to relinquished in the future, with or without the tacit approval of any potential Palestinian “peace partner”
Back to the Trump plan: It is portions of this strategically vital territory Israel may be called on to yield.
Jordan is immediately adjacent to this territory from the east. It is separated from it by only by the Jordan Valley, whose steep slope constitute a formidable topographical barrier between the Hashemite monarchy and the strategic highlands of Judea-Samaria, making the Valley itself a vital military asset.
Back to the “Ultimate Deal”
Clearly then,, for Israel, who controls Jordan is a matter of critical importance—especially in light of the grim experience of the “Arab Spring”.
Indeed, despite all the grievances Israel may have regarding the repeated displays of diplomatic animosity by the current Jordanian regime, its seems highly implausible that any successor regime is likely to be more amicable. Quite the opposite. Barring some unforeseen development, pundits would generally agree that the most likely candidates to take over the reins of power are extreme Islamist elements, who would be more radical and more inimical to Israel by far.
Accordingly, when weighing any territorial concessions, it matters hugely whether Jordan is governed by a relatively moderate pro-western monarch or by an extremist Jihadist regime—who territorial reach extends from the Jordan River to the western fringes of Iraq.
Putting aside for the moment the weighty question of whether any Palestinian interlocutor can be trusted to honor any deal struck with him, it is clear that in the latter case, territorial concessions are likely to be far more perilous than in the former. After all, the territory conceded will be far more accessible to hostile anti-Israel elements and far more susceptible to incendiary incitement from Jihadi elements.
Planning for “the day after”….
For Israel, then, strategic prudence dictates that its working assumption must be that the Hashemite regime has a limited “shelf life”.
The forces of instability in Jordan are beyond Israel’s control, and although it might be able to attenuate them in the margins, it cannot determine their eventual outcome—or who will seize, or sustain, command of the country.
So, whatever advantages might be entailed in the continued rule of Abdallah,
Israel must prepare for “the day after” and tailor its ability to accede any territorial concessions in the Trump peace plan accordingly.
@ Felix Quigley:
You know, historically speaking there have been examples of just what you’re talking about. I mean where Sovereign rulers, have hesitated and ignored requests for help from deserving, revolting people in an enemy state. This, because they felt it a dangerous precedent to encourage anyone to revolt against his lawful ruler, that the same thing might happen to them sometime. European politics centuries ago was full of similar examples. Of course Royalty believed that they had been appointed and anointed by the Creator to their exalted positions.
Of course in the State of Israel things like that would never happen. The people are loyal to the state and all the surrounding states are dangerous enemies who would dlood into Israel except for the fear of the IDF. Still, I think that they are following this principle you mention, and I don’ believ they will do anything except support the position of the Jordan king, not militarily perhaps but politically. I think they should bounce him put of there…but….that’s me.
.
One of the huge weaknesses in this article by Martin centres on his acceptance of the right of Trump to interfere and to make a deal, make any deal, and this is where my thinking on this has led.
There actually seems to be two different systems at play here. I stand on Trotskyism. This has huge implicatiosn.
I placed this on my facebook page (felix.quigley)
“Felix Quigley Martin is right on this and he has went back (let us say reconsidered a good and better way of putting it and a good thing to do) his position. I feel I have advanced greatly in my understanding just by thinking on this. My basic position is that the safeguarding of sovereignty must be taken very seriously indeed, and from this I conclude Israel has no right to interfere in any action or intrigue against Abdullah, except to publicly defend him, and also Assad etcetera, and this also involves Trump coming down to Israel HE MUST NOT INTERFERE ONLY BACK UP, and opens the way for Israel to take the necessary action to end all terrorism inside of Israel. This has far reaching consequences more even than when I started thinking on this.”
Jewish Graveyards in Ireland
Ballybough Graveyard is of interest and I believe it has been taken under care by Dublin Council. There may be many graveyards in Ireland in danger.
I hope to visit and photograph some of these when I soon return to Ireland. As an Irish person I feel a responsibility to defend these sites.
ISRAEL MUST BE SOVEREIGN AND TREAT ALL COUNTRIES AS SOVEREIGN
ISRAEL DO NOT OFFER A SANDWICH AT THE BORDER
Chaos is the friend only of the counter revolution. I mean by this the growth of Antisemitism, moves towards Fascism among the Democrats like Maxine Waters and this newly elected Bronx lady called Alexandria. Chaos is for the anarchists and Marxism is totally opposed.
The chaos mind you comes out of this system. In 1917 Lenin had only a few people and he despaired in Switzerland. He did not create the chaos. Obviously. He was not even there until April.
But chaos is dangerous and Trotskyism, that is Leninism, was totally wiped out in 1940. Fact! We are not creating chaos today for sure, yet there is huge chaos. Look inside the very system for the chaos.
Israel under these bankrupt leaders, intervening, create, add to, the chaos.
The general principle is that sovereignty counts.
In this every single rule has been broken, not by Israel but the weak leaders of Israel went along.
Stay out of the King’s Jordan.
If you are not prepared to go in with army to right the treachery of Churchill in 1920 stay out of their affairs.
Defend the sovereignty of Syria. Let Assad know Israel defends their sovereignty.
Do exactly the same NOW to King Husein. Desist Ted Belman NOW!
Oppose totally these enemies of Assad congregating at the border with Golan. They are enemies of Assad. Enemies of Israel.
Trump and America…mind your own business…for once.
The sovereignty of Israel is the urgent demand for Israel to smash totally Palestinianism, in every way. Nothing else matters.
You see why it is so critical to defend Assad, the sovereignty of Syria, and Jordan Egypt under Mabarak, Libya, Iraq and so on. THEIR SOVEREIGNTY.
By these means and this approach you gain the right to crush all forms of Palestinianism.
Do not give food, or anything to any refugees on any border.
make it clear that you support Assad putting down opposition and break up of the sovereign country of Syria and that Israel will do the same. Absolutely totally same applies to Crimea. Crimea is Russia shout it to the world Israel!
The present Israeli leaders or rather toadies of other strong countries do not even get close to this, and do not deserve a country. THAT is the problem not little Hussein fighting for his life, literally.
Ted and Israel are in danger of being aiders of ISIS.
Remember that Nasser had cups of tea with Qutb but then had to hang him. Only that type of leader can fight the Jihad.
@ Felix Quigley:
Felix- I know that David Melech makes his remarks in a flippant manner which includes comments I often don’t understand, For instance I completely missed the thing about the World Cup, But that’s his way. It’s what he SAID that I agree with. How could I not…? The Jordanian population, including the little king, hate Jews and Israel vehemently. The Hashemite family does suffer from inbreeding. (Martin was wrong in his assertion that Abdullah is the 3rd of the Hashemite Line in Jordan).
Citizens who sell property to Jews or Israelis are executed if they haven’t already left the country one jump ahead of the hangman. No Jews are allowed to live in Jordan. Plus- often citizens are accused of “spying” for Israel and suffer severe penalties, maybe death, And all this is true, and I agreed that it is.
(I don’t believe that Israel doesn’t know everything of importance that’s going on right next door, by technological means. They don’t need spies).
As for whoever succeeds the Hashemites, if it’s the Opposition led by Mudar, as I hope it will be, it has to be better than what’s there now. It may be temporary. Zahran says that his govt. will only be provisional until fair and democratic elections, I tend to believe him. If Islamists get into power as you suspect, they may or may not attempt to attack Israel. If they do, they’ll be destroyed. Israel will always be on the watch against it anyway.
So I’m deeply and sincerely sorry that you have this opinion, but David’s comments being true, I had to agree with them. I could have kept quiet and not responded by then I didn’t see any reason not to. I had no idea that you would look at it in the light you have done. If I’d thought so, I might have made my comment a little differently but presently I can’t see how. The admiration you mention, is mutual, as you know. I don’t care about politics as such but I DO appreciate an patently honest man who sticks to his convictions though unpopular.
I wrote to Martin and took issue when he wrote, “pundits would generally agree that the most likely candidates to take over the reins of power are extreme Islamist elements, who would be more radical and more inimical to Israel by far.” Yes pundits generally sound this alarm. That doesn’t make them or Martin in this case right. In fact the fear of that happenning is driving the candicy of Mudar.
To set the record straight, I always supported Gahdafi and Assad.
Perhaps Martin will let us know, between Mudar and the King, who would he prefer to run Jordan?
Edgar
To your shame you side with Melech. You see Edgar I do not mind at all people coming down on the present leader of Jordan, no problem with that whatsoever, but I do mind very much doing that in the absence of putting forward any kind of strategy in the present situation.
So Edgar much as I like you and admire you your comment is nothing more than an extension of Melech’s comment which is totally also empty of real seriousness in relation to strategy. If it is empty of strategy it becomes something close to cynicism.
By the way I do know enough about all of these rulers I mention, Mubarak, Gadhafi, Ben Ali, Gadhafi, Saddam…but that is not the point. The issue is strategy…what to do?
Here enters the great divide between Marxism and bourgeois Zionism. I am prepared to come out and state WHAT IS…
I notice those such as Ted Belman, Yamit82, a guy called Bernard Ross who disappeared, and the Stalinist guy on Israpundit who say nothing.
But what can they say? This change in Martin’s position has floored them! Perhaps it is best that they hide!
Would really like to hear them…minus the insults. A lot is at stake.
@ david melech:
Melech you seek a diversion from this vital issue which Martin in a disjointed fashion at least does confront into a smart ass remark about the World Cup…your method and attitude shows you are a betrayer of the great Jewish people. I do not know you personally but that comment of yours tells me that most strongly.
If the King falls in Jordan it is possible that a more hostile regime take over or it splinters into pieces being run by tribes or various elements including Islamist’s such as the Muslim Brotherhood. Even if, Jordanian Opposition were to take over who says this more than temporary at best.
Jordan’s population is made up of 70% or so of so called West Bankers or Palestinians who hate Israel. Not so sure the remainder of the population is very fond of Israel either.
Felix- it is not just “diplomatic animosity” as euphemistically described by Martin, even that being regurgitated by the little fat king. It pervades the whole Jordanian people, who have been inculcated-when they didn’t already have it- with the same irrational, psychotic Jew-Hate as have most other Arabs, and Muslims.
As David Melech reminds us, this is a country where selling property to a Jew is a Capital Crime, and there are NO Jews allowed to live there, other than Embassy staff. And this is a “country” which has Peace Treaty with us. If I were in charge, I would, NOT have re-opened the Embassy at this time. They would have had to approach Jerusalem when they wanted something, as they always do from Israel.
David, you are right about the inbreeding problems, which is why their kings marry outside their family. Nasser’s “Little malignant dwarf in Amman” was given the kingship because his father the rightful king, Talal, was crazy and had to be locked away after about a year, somewhere in Turkey, maybe Istanbul..
So actually our little fat Abdullah is the 4th of the Hashemite line, not the 3rd.
One of Ibn Saud’s early sons was crazy too and cut out from succession.
Would you believe that 9 Saudi kings between them had 316 children…..
JEWS/ISRAELIS forbidden to live, own property in eastern ISRAEL that’s why it’s another backwoods arab country. No doubt the breeding in-house family plans create lots of fools and retards.
Now bring real serious teams with CFC players are winning in Russia’s world cup.
I warned specifically about this. I could not have been more specific.
I said that it was necessary to defend the the present ruler. That to overthrow him as Ted was suggesting, and I do believe that Martin did attend that conference and gave his blessing to that craziness.
I also said to back Assad more or less on the same basis.
I also said to back Saddam, Ben Ali, Gaghbo and above all Mubarak and Gadhafi.
That it was necessary to defeat ISIS in Syria and in Jordan to guard against ISIS.
But then as a person whose political orientation is influenced by Trotskyism I was deliberately not listened to. (Just been banned from Gates of Vienna by the lady editor there and a comment I made on Geller Blog was removed)
The whole of the writing of especially Trotsky are filed with this type of situation…over and over again fighting ultra leftism (Stalin was particularly guilty) that at times it is necessary to ally with the “devil”
Looks like I was right and that Israel is endangered by those who play around and do not listen to me, and run me down, and run down what drives me which is Trotskyist THEORY and EXPERIENCE. (I have said enough I will go no further)