By MARTIN SHERMAN
The feasibility of Trump’s “Deal of the Century” will be dramatically impacted by the nature of the regime east of the Jordan River and its prospective stability
There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact – Sherlock Holmes, “The Boscombe Valley Mystery”.
Israel must, in the most blunt and clear way possible, illustrate to Washington that the prosperity of Jordan is a first rate Israeli security and strategic interest – Former Head of Mossad, Ephraim Halevy, at “Between Jerusalem and Amman: 25 Years since the Signing of the Peace Agreement between Israel and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan”, the Institute for National Security Studies, Sept. 25, 2019.”
With the media in a furor over the election deadlock and the legal woes of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, some of the other substantive issues looming on Israel’s overloaded national agenda naturally tend to be sidelined in the ongoing public discourse.
One such topic, with potentially far reaching significance that received scant media attention, was briefly broached last week: The relationship with Jordan and the rather ominous prospects for the future.
A vital Israeli interest
Understandably, in light of the regular flare-ups of violence, far more focus has been given to Israel’s fronts in the North and the South—where in the former, Israel has been engaged in curtailing the Iranian build up in Syria and Lebanon, and, in the latter, in containing the violence on the Gazan border.
This tends to obscure the immense importance of Israel’s eastern frontier with Jordan, and, as a direct corollary thereof, the mountain ridge separating that frontier from the country’s heavily populated coastal plain.
The potential volatility and impact along Israel’s longest border were thrown into sharp relief last week by Ephraim Halevy, former Head of Mossad, at a conference marking a quarter-century since the signing of the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan.
According to Halevy, Israel should lobby the US on the Hashemite Kingdom’s behalf, on the one hand, and on the other hand, the security establishment should be drawing up plans to deal with various possible future alternatives in Jordan. Indeed, he prescribes that “Israel must, in the most blunt and clear way possible, illustrate to Washington that the prosperity of Jordan is a first rate Israeli security and strategic interest.”
Thus, in Halevy’s view, Jordan’s stability and prosperity is a critical Israeli “interest, not a Jordanian one, and it is different from ties with the other countries surrounding us.”
“Jordan should be a top Israeli priority…”
Somewhat ironically, Halevy made his plea less than twenty four hours after the Jordanian monarch, King Abdallah, addressed the UN, devoting half of his speech to castigating Israel.
However, despite Abdallah’s public display of enmity, it is not difficult to understand Halevy’s perspective. After all, under the Hashemite dynasty, Israel’s eastern frontier has, for all intents and purposes, been peaceful since the early 1970s.
Indeed, considering the possible Mid-East alternatives, having an ostensibly moderate, pro-Western regime installed in Amman has undeniable appeal.
Accordingly, Halevy bewailed the fact that Washington has now downgraded the importance it once saw in Jordan, lamenting: “The US has turned its back on Jordan…for three years there has been no American ambassador in Jordan!”
He warned ominously; “…the Jordan issue should have top priority because if, God forbid, something should happen in Jordan, and there will be a different situation across the [Jordan] River and we go back to the situation, in which the border is no longer our longest and quietest border, but our longest and most problematic border, it will be too late!”—cautioning that this could occur within the space of one to two years.
Halevy thus urged that Israeli representatives be dispatched to Washington to advocate US aid to ensure the stability of the Hashemite regime in Amman.
Teetering on the brink?
When someone as pro-Jordan and with as close a ties with the monarchy as Halevy issues such a shrill clarion call, it should be treated with the utmost gravity and be clear that the dangers, of which he warns, are indeed imminent.
The Jordanian economy, heavily dependent on imported energy and foreign aid, has been in dire straits for several years now. Dissatisfaction is seething, producing large scale street riots, government reshuffles and erosion of the monarchy’s longstanding base of support.
Although the country is straining under the burden of a million (possibly more) refugees, mainly from Syria, “many Jordanians now point to economic mismanagement and an over-reliance on international aid and International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance, rather than the Syrian crisis, as the fundamental ill plaguing the country”.
With unemployment spiraling to almost 20% , and the specter of decreasing foreign aid, the king is even in danger of losing the support of his traditional base—the Jordanian Bedouin tribes, which constitute the backbone of the regime. Thus, in March 2019, a protest movement, identified with Jordan’s large Bani Hassan tribe, issued an unusually harsh statement against the King, accusing him and his family of behaving like “demigods” and demanding a change of regime.
Clamor for regime change
In the words of the statement: “The crisis in Jordan is a crisis of the regime, not of [any particular] government. It is a crisis of corruption that stems from allowing the King, his wife and his family…to do as they like and to expand the powers granted them in Jordan’s constitution. This has led to the emergence of a sector of powerful people who are corrupt and have sown ruin and destruction throughout the land under the personal patronage of the [King and Queen], and to the neutralizing of the Jordanian people and their exclusion from participation in decision-making and in self-governance. We have therefore shifted from the delusional stage of demanding reforms to demanding a comprehensive change to the system of government…”
Significantly, other tribes—such as Bani Abbad and Bani Hamida—also reportedly expressed support for the Bani Hassan statement, and although some tribal dignitaries renounced it, declaring support for the king, it caused considerable consternation in official circles.
Moreover, retired regime officials and military personnel, many of them tribe members, who were formerly part of the establishment, also took part in public protests. A group of politicians and retired military officers calling themselves the National Follow-up Committee issued a statement severely criticizing the king and court for abusing their authority, and called to take measures to limit the powers of the monarchy.
Another source of criticism is the Muslim Brotherhood. Although the movement has “lost much steam” due to internal dissention and the dismal outcomes in countries where the Muslim Brotherhood held power, the movement still exploits the wave of discontent to score political points. Earlier this year, its political branch, the Islamic Action Front, issued a statement attributing the rising unemployment, especially among young people, to the regime’s economic policy and called for changing the political and economic systems.
Limited “shelf life”?
It seems therefore, that Halevy has ample grounds for his concern. However, the fact that his diagnosis—of how tenuous the Hashemite dynasty’s hold on power might be—is accurate, this does not necessarily mean that his prescribed remedy—attempting to prop up a floundering monarch—should be adopted.
Although prime facie it might appear eminently plausible, we should not forget the fictional Sherlock Holmes’s salutary caveat: There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact.
For as deceptively tempting as the idea might be, Israel cannot take upon itself the responsibility for ensuring the current socio-economic edifice of Jordan.
Indeed, Israel has bitter experience with regime-change in countries once reasonably benignly disposed towards it – such as pre-Erdogan Turkey, Iran under the Shah, Mubarak’s Egypt and Lebanon under Bashir Jumaiel.
The latter, in particular, underscores that Israel can do little to ensure the durability of a relatively amiable regime, if domestic forces deem otherwise.
Accordingly, for the authors of Israel’s national strategy, the prudent working assumption must be that the Hashemite regime has a limited—albeit not necessarily known—“shelf-life”.
It would therefore appear, that the emphasis should be placed on the second part of Halevy’s recommendation i.e. that Israel’s security establishment should be drawing up plans to deal with various alternatives in the Hashemite Kingdom.
Jordan, regime-change and Trump
The instability in Jordan and the prospect of other “various alternatives” (i.e. regime change) assume heightened importance in light of the rumored publication of the long-awaited Trump administration’s “Deal of the Century”, purported to bring the century plus old conflict between Jew and Arab over the Holy Land, to an end.
Although the details of the “Deal” are as yet obscure, it would appear the Jordan is slated to play a major role in it—grudgingly or otherwise. Accordingly, the feasibility of the “Deal”—indeed its acceptability—will be dramatically impacted by the nature of the regime east of the Jordan River and its prospective stability (or lack thereof).
After all, although some may hope otherwise, there seems little prospect that any successor regime in Amman will be more favorably disposed toward Israel than the current one.
This takes us back to the crucial strategic importance for Israel of the highlands of Judea-Samaria and the Jordan Valley. As I have been at pains to point out on numerous occasions, not only are these highlands the only topographical barrier between Jordan and the heavily populated coast plain, but any forces—regular or renegade—deployed on them will have complete topographical command and control of virtually all Israel’s airfields (military and civilian, including Ben Gurion, the only international airport), its major ports and naval bases, is principal traffic axes (rail and road), vital infrastructure installations/systems (electrical power, desalination plants and water conveyance), centers of civilian government and military command and 80% of the civilian population and commercial activity.
All of these will be in range of cheap, readily available weapons that have already been used against Israel from areas evacuated by it and transferred to Arab control.
Thus, the rationale of any plan that entails Israeli evacuation of this vital territory will hinge critically on the nature of the regime-type in Jordan, which abuts it from the East.
For whatever other grave detriments their might be in such a plan, it will matter greatly if Jordan is ruled by a government that strives to reign in forces hostile to Israel, or one that is indifferent to their aggressive intent—or worse, is complicit with it.
After all, should the Trump plan entail significant territorial concessions, Israel may well find itself in a situation in which it will have to contend with a huge expanse of hostile territory, stretching from the fringes of Greater Tel Aviv to the border of Iraq—and perhaps beyond.
Accordingly, Israel’s security establishment should indeed draw up plans to deal with prospective alternatives in Jordan—not only how to cope with them once they arise, but to prevent them from arising at all.
Martin Sherman is the founder & executive director of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies
@ Edgar G.:
I was referring to an archeological Tel. almost 200 meters inland from sea shore with gradual elevations up to a high sand dune which turned out to be a Tel Survey’s determined it to have been the site of ancient port one of several along Gaza coastline.. Found ancient Greek and Roman coins, Roman glass, parts of marble statues lots of broken pottery some jewelry, etc. All those finds were surface finds as we did not dig the dunes, against the law. I did have a metal detector. Compensating for natural erosion, I calculated that this port had to be about 50ft above current sea levels today. Remember this is one of several similar between Northern Sinai and Ashdod. All in the earlier Philistine country and later Byzantine cultures. Proves that historically sea levels were much higher than today without Global warming and Wow we have survived and are still around Haaaaaaa.
Sorry never met your professors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_47O05PHD10
@ yamit82:
******************Gathering Sea Shells By The Sea Shore***************************
By Edgar G.
There could be other reasons for those shells….for example.. rather than think that the sea level was 50 ft. higher (thereby inundating a large part of Israel, I prefer to suppose that those shells and any other marine life found there, came from the massive eruption of Santorini, which destroyed the Minoan Civilisation in the -15th Cent. and still was powerful enough to come as a large Tidal Wave to the coast of Egypt and sweep up along Sinai and across the Delta.. There is evidence of it.
Of course you could be referring to hundreds of thousands of years ago, or even much earlier….
The major expert on this and other near East ancient archaeological history, was Professor Marinos. On his investigation of Santorini (Thera) he was accompanied by another professor, John V. Luce, whose speciality was Ancient languages of the area, /Classics……amongst other qualifications.
They both published convincing accounts, which support my contention. I knew Luce personally, (didn’t like him) played on teams both against and with him, so naturally I bought a fe
w of his books. One in particular, “The End Of Atlantis; New Light On An Old Legend”,,,. I found extremely descriptive..
I also have been to Caesarea,…. even took o few coloured pebbles from what I saw later to be a very large Mosaic, right by those two statues…Tut-tut… I went to the very end of that sloping stepped pier and just stood and marvelled. This was when they built those little cabins which were selling for $10,000 each. I couldn’t decide whether to buy 1 or 5 ( I have 4 children) but eventually, after several visits, looking t them squatting in orderly rows like army wooden tents, they repelled me.. MY MISTAKE.
This was before the place became so exclusive and expensive. Nothing else but these little huts were “supposed” to ever be built there. Being Israel, and run by corruption, I should have known better.
{ADAM- Luce MUST have been in the College when you were there, did you ever run into him….?}
@ yamit82:
In Casearea (or adjacent) in the Mediterranean what is now sea was part of the ancient Roman city, as you likely know.
@ Felix Quigley:
When I lived in the north Sinai on the coast I found hundreds of thousands of seashells a mile and a half on pure white fine sea sand dunes. That means that sea levels 2000 years ago were much higher than today then. I was told that it was probably a Roman seaport as I found many artifacts like coins and marble statues along with many broke shards… What this proves is that sea levels then were at least 50 fit higher than they are today…. Weather changes naturally
Felix Quigley Said:
A- The only real creation of Arabs is a Desert and or the expansion of existing ones.
B- The ME has been largely Arid since the end of the ice age. Certainly, the rapid global population increase lends itself to much of the world’s ecology and even climate.
C–Israeli desalinization is a unique patent that uses solar energy in the process as well as clean natural gas to power the desalinization production.
The amt of salt extracted in the process has not added significantly to the Saline levels of the sea and am not sure where upper levels are that would harm sea ecology. Do you are anyone else know? I doubt it!!! Seas are vast and amounts of salt added so far to the sea I find it implausible that they could change sea ecology at present or in foreseeable future.
There are many commercial uses for Desalinization waste like medicines preservatives and using it in fish farming of saltwater fish. I am sure many commercial uses I do not imagine or know of can also be found and or invented. It is a cheap natural commodity.
E- Deserts can be turned into forests negating any harmful effects of carbon excess in the atmosphere…Increase co2 lends itself to extended growing seasons and wider diversification of crops, especially in colder and temp climates. More food eliminates hunger reduces the cost of food, commodities, and crops….
F- Years ago when we controlled the Sinai e discovered a deep freshwater underground lake with enough water to irrigate the whole of Sinai and the Negev and the whole population of Israel for at least 100 years. I am sure there are similar underground freshwater lakes in all deserts.
The climate of Israel has changed dramatically in the past 70 years… Summers less hot and humid and we have developed a whole group of desert plants and trees able to thrive on little water. Israel is just about self-sufficient in food today
Re Jordan… OK drop the religious elements for your benefit.
A- There can never be peace between Jews and Arabs who can’t live in peace with other Arabs.
B- The King remains in power because Israel protects it from existential enemies and invasions. The Saudis and others (IMF) keep it afloat financially and Israel provides free hundreds of millions of cubic meters of freshwater yearly, even when we lacked enough for ourselves, all on the Israeli taxpayer. In this area water is Gold even more valuable to some like Jordan. In short, Israel keeps the King and Jordan alive. We could in a heartbeat bring the whole regime down just by cutting them off from our supply line and protection.
C- Jordan belongs to Israel and there is no reason we should keep them propped up. The inevitable fall of the monarchy whether from internal or external or combination is a given. The question of what comes after? If Israel is not proactive then we will have to deal with in all probability some non-Bedouine takeover and they will not be friendly campers. In our region, there are either radical Muslims or autocratic dictatorships neither good for Israel. As I said, whatever or whoever replaces the King cannot become an economically viable regime and if not, in the beginning, will succumb to most anti-Israel radicalism. A Jordanian radical unfriendly regime in Jordan with modern Jets rockets and missiles on our border becoming an existential threat and Israel from no choice will be forced to respond and I say again from no choice take the land and annex it eventually after depopulating most Jordanians.
There could be other scenarios but I will stick with mine to proven wrong.
D- Trump inadvertently gave Israel a big prize wrt the Golan. Israel has discovered a large quantity of real oil under the Golan and needed to get some Intl. recognition to begin to develop the field if not immediately then soon in the future. With ISIS mostly defeated there is no one strong enough to oppose us when we begin oil development. Israel is sitting on 260 billion barrels of oil in shale rock… Jordan is sitting on large shale deposits as well…. Israel has developed an eco-friendly patent for fracking… So far environmentalists have held up development but they do have pilot plants in operation. We have discovered enough natural gas for a few lifetimes with more being discovered yearly. By taking over Jordan and Gaza we gain both vast amt of both oil and gas.
E- Israel can be a model for both developing and developed countries preserving ecology developing essential natural resources and use of natural and manmade energy resources…
Cure for Global warming Hoaxters Eliminate a couple of billion people and walla no carbon problem.. Keep the farting cows and get rid of farting people 😛
ARAB AND JEW MARCHING TOGETHER…TO OBLIVION
As far as Arab and Jew are concerned sadly there is no difference as far as poisoning our earth is concerned. I found this very interesting article on desalinization. (Enclosed) seas becoming more and more salty. The article claims that for every gallon of drinking water two gallons of brine are returned to these (enclosed) seas. As far as the health of the earth is concerned desalinization is a risky business indeed. The article also mentions gas and oil extraction, fracking, CO2 pumped in pure form into the atmosphere. It mentions oil in the sea and oily water increases the heat of the water. This is a nightmare. This is a new one on me and I think “Arab and Jew together destroying our planet”.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/desalination-breakthrough-saving-the-sea-from-salt/
PS the “breakthrough” is just more and much more of the same. It is nonsense as far as planetary well being is concerned.
The following paragraph by Yamit seems totally unreal because he is erecting projections of the future which are dubious. These projections may be true, for example with the King gone then the Arabs will not self govern at all, but will go into chaos and antisemitism of an extreme kind. That is the likely future. But surely the present not ideal situation is better than collapse and chaos. But Yamit welcomes chaos. That is so childish!
Nor does he mention that global warming is making the whole area of the Middle East impossible to live in.
Why not just take over the hilly ground overlooking Israel that is Judea and Samaria and integrate that into Israel, without compromise? This is a defence against Arab terrorism. Who can argue?
Conspiracy thinking is big in Samson Blinded and Yamit. It is a form of the Christian “End Times”. It is to invite calamity.
The most significant factor in the situation I believe is global warming. This is also based on firm science. This reality is going to cut across such conspiracy thinking of Yamit.
The central issue is CO2. It is basic science. It is rooted deeply in the history of our planet.
Is it possible to take water from the sea, extract the salt, and do this without adding CO2 to the atmosphere?
Have there been studies on this?
To have human and animal life in this area of the world it will be necessary to do this. And the effect?
Yamit imagines all of this scenario, collapse of Jordan into chaos, Israel moving in and expelling Arabs to iraq (and then?)
But as Sherman harps on, Israel cannot and does not want to control the high ground of Judea and Samaria as a strategic area,and cannot even clear out the Jihadists from Gaza.
I would say to Yamit just do that. and challenge the obvious alliance that Ted Belman creates with the leaders of American Imperialism, themselves plunging into economic crisis,and adding to global warming with the Trump movement as the figurehead of welcoming this global warming.
The future of the Jewish people as a people and their Homeland is going to be decided by CO2 “whether they like it or not”.
One of Dr. Sherman’s most brilliant and timely pieces. Everything he writes is true and well documented.
We might add that the Institute for National Security Studies, with which Mr. Ephraim Halevy is associated, is in some respects a sinister organization. Its division concerned with the Israeli -Palesinian relationship calls for the withdrawal of Israel from the central mountainous region of Judea-Samaria, in order to create a contiguous, viable area for a future Palestinian State. And the INSS’s “Israel Palestine Relationship” division also urges that Israel unilaterally withdraw from these territories if a withdrawal cannot be effected through negotiations with the PLO. As Dr. Sherman points out, that would put Israel in mortal danger.
But the very worst of it is that the INSS’s vision is supported by Benny Gantz, who had a lot of input into it, according to an article in the Times of Israel. According to a TOI report from January, Gantz attended the conference where the INSS plan was developed in November of last year, shortly before he announced his candidacy for Prime Minister. However, he asked INSS to keep his attendance at the conference where the plan was drawn up secret, and the INSS complied with this request. General Ashkenazi, now one of Gantz’s partners in Blue and White, also attended, but kept his presence secret.
This secretiveness of Gantz, his reluctance to share either his activities or his plans for Israel’s future with the Israeli people, is yet another reason to be very concerned about Gantz’s future Prime Ministership.
Despite this secretiveness, Gantz did reveal his support for the INSS plan (without mentioning the INSS), albeit in guarded language, in an interview with Maariv (or was it Yediot?) in January, immediately after announcing his candidacy for the Prime Ministership. The interview was summarized, with quotations, in most of Israel’s English language press. Among other things, he desctibed the fate of the Jewish settlements in central Judea, home to 85-90 thousand Jews, as dependant on his “negotiating strategy” for his future negotiations with the PLO. He declined to say, however, what that “negotiating strategy. was.” He did indicate, however, that he approved of the expulsion of the 12,000 Jews from Gush Katif and northern Samaria, and said that “the lessons learned” from this operation could be applied in the future.
The Blue-White platform also reveals the coalition’s committment to the iNSS withdrawal plan-albeit more by what it doesn’t say than by what it does say. The platform commits Blue-White to to retaining the “settlement blocs” and the settlements in the Jordan Valley–but is silent about the what it intends to do with the settlements in the central mountain region of Judea-Samaria (which is most of these territories). This is classic Gantz–you have to notice what he doesn’t say, not what he does say, to learn his plans.
With the backing of 65 MPs to Netanyahu’s maximum of 55, and with Attorney -General Mandelblit and his 20 prosectors determined to indict Netanyahu as early as late October or early November, Gantz is almost certain to be Israel’s next Prime Minister. Only a miracle could prevent it.
No one in Israel, certainly not its journalists or its pundits, appears to have a clue what is in store for Israel one Gantz becomes Prime minister, and his associetes and allies fill the other ministries. By the time the people finally realize what they intend to do to Israel, it will probably be too late to either prevent or reverse it.
@ yamit82:Do you write Sampson Blinded? Or just read and quote from there?
It is good reading whatever the case maybe!
Whatever a government does, it likely does wrong. Bismarck weaved the most excellent policies, but they laid the foundation for two world wars. The League of Nations was a great idea, but it legalized the inaction which allowed Germany to re-arm. Partitioning states to satisfy both political camps seemed a viable strategy, but partitioned Vietnam fought a bloody war, and other cases proved equally unsustainable. Bleeding the communists in Afghanistan was a nice thing to do, but the aid to the mujahedeen created the Islamic terrorist threat. It is not an overgeneralization to say that all policies are wrong.
How absurd it is to imagine a lion that enters a camp of gazelles to teach them manners, self-defense, or agriculture. No, lions are satisfied with the immediate goal of satiation—if at the gazelle’s expense. The peace process is similar. Israel has tried rejecting the Palestinians’ demands, acceding to them, and every option in between. Nothing has worked—because policies never work. The Middle East’s ecosystem is a textbook example of a complex adaptive system. Any policy would be wrong here. The only solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict is to stop seeking a solution.
The Bible promises the nation of Israel a huge country from the Nile to the Euphrates. The Jordanian monarchy won’t last long. The Palestinian majority will take over that desert state, and unable to create a viable economy there, they will turn to nationalism and militancy. Jordan will become a huge Gaza, rife with terrorist training camps. Jordanians will extend their influence to those Arabs whom Israel failed to expel. In order to establish security, Israel would have no choice but to extend toward the Euphrates, relocating the hostile Arabs to Iraq. .
Interesting article. Those who are busy discussing the Jordanian Option should read this article and think about its ramifications.