Jordan’s King Abdullah II speaks to President Donald Trump during a White House visit in June 2018. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
In a closed-door meeting with members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last month, King Abdullah II of Jordan said the White House had given him zero visibility into the most fraught part of their peace plan: how it proposes to divide Israeli and Palestinian territory.
Behind the scenes: The king seemed dissatisfied with the level of consultation and was pessimistic about the plan’s prospects, two sources in the room told Axios. King Abdullah has privately told people he is frustrated by the fact that despite having numerous meetings with senior Trump administration officials, he’s never been given any detail about the core political issues, in which Jordan has a huge interest.
The sources who were in the room with King Abdullah told Axios that he meets with the committee almost every time he’s in D.C., and he usually speaks with caution. But he seemed less so this time, a source in the room said.
- “The king made it clear they have not been talking to him about it. He seemed to be critical and dismissive of the efforts,” one of the sources said.
- Another source in the room said King Abdullah “gave the impression that it was more of an economic deal rather than a peace deal.”
A Jordanian official with knowledge of the discussion told Axios: “His Majesty was asked about the plan and said he did not yet see it and therefore cannot comment. He also believes that an economic plan without a political one is not sufficient.”
- A senior White House official responded: “We have met and spoken with leaders throughout the region, including King Abdullah, to share ideas and solicit their thoughts.”
- “Since the beginning, we have been clear that this is not just an economic plan. We are taking very seriously both aspects of this, the political, which deals with all the core issues, and the economic. We understand that if the political aspect does not work, the economic aspect will not create peace.”
- “But at the same time, the political aspect will not succeed without a significant economic plan to enhance Palestinian lives and the lives of others in the region.”
Between the lines: Sources with direct knowledge told Axios that only five or six people in the entire U.S. government have seen the political side of the plan, making it one of few secrets the White House has been able to keep.
- During Jared Kushner’s recent tour of the region, he briefed Arab leaders on the economic side of the plan, but revealed nothing about the proposed division of land, the status of Jerusalem or whether the plan would support the creation of a Palestinian state.
The big picture: The White House’s Arab partners who will need to sell a peace deal remain in the dark about its political dimensions.
- These Arab partners — including the Saudis and Emiratis — have also complained that the Trump administration has taken steps favoring the Israelis and frustrating the Arab world, including moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
What’s next: The White House peace plan isn’t expected to be public before mid-June, and it’s unclear if the White House will reveal the whole thing at once. Some on the team, according to sources in touch with them, hope to roll out the economic side first.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
You are wrong on all four counts.I told you what’s going to happen and you refuse to believe it.
Hugo Schmidt-Fischer Said:
Yes, so it won’t happen. You really think the Trump admin will let that happen.
My analysis sees one or the other of the following four possible outcomes if Abdullah adbicates and flees Jordan: 1) Another Hashemite , maybe one of his sons, taking the throne, while a coalition of the Jordanian “establishment” types who have in the last few years criticized Abdullah and distanced themselves from him, holding real power as his young successor’s “advisors.” They will promise to remove corrupt and incompetent officials appointed by Abdullah in order to appease the people. Possibly they will actually fire these officials and appoint more honest and competent one. 2) The military will take over, led by someone like al-Sisi. Not necessarily a bad outcome. 3) THe Muslim Brotherhood, perhaps in alliance with even more extreme Islamists, will take power–possibly through elections, as in Egypt. A bad outcome. 4) Complete chaos as the kingdom, an artificial state created by Britian after World War I, disintegrates into numerous warlordships and ethnic mini states, like Syria and Iraq. Numerous terrorist groups making Jordan their new base of operations, after being pushed out of Syria. Probably the worst outcome for Israel.
@ Ted Belman:
So you admit
“some will come from Syria and Lebanon”, while “most will come from J&S and Gaza”.
Admiting Hamas to Israel’s Eastern border is a bad move. I rest my case.
@ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
I know but you are speclating. Trump is making Israel stronger.period.Hugo Schmidt-Fischer Said:
That’s not what is happenning.. He is undermining UNRWA. . Yes, some refugees will come from Syria and Lebanon, but most will come from J&S and Gaza. The Palestinian textbooks in use in the Palestinian world and Jordan will be rewritten to your satisfaction. Mudar will run Jordan as our strongest ally in the ME. He will work toward making the Jordan/ Israel border similar to the border between the US and Canada..
Ted, there is serious concern, that a Manhattan inspired socialite couple will be misguided to try and fix a wrongly perceived root cause of the conflict.
Namely, to disband the refugee camps in Lebanon and Syria and then the historic Middle East conflict will be ‘solved’. They will attempt to institute the ‘right-of-return lite 2.0’ installing the 1 million Arabs from Syrian and Lebanese camps, and they will not expatriate Israeli Arabs.
Nothing will be solved. The 9/11 terrorists were not the dispossessed, they were the privileged children of Arab Nomenclatura.
Jihad is not a result of poverty, it is a cultural phenomenon, and George Bush provided ample proof at the cost of $ 2 trillion that democracy is not in the hearts and minds of Arab Moms and Dads, as he wrongly proclaimed.
Spending 100 million to reshuffle their populations will not help, it will only strengthen their economies will only weaken us.
In spite of the endless blaming of the West, or Israel, the problems of the Arab Middle East are their own. They are at their throats, because that is who they are, and they will continue doing it.
The wall in Jordan was built with US funds, while curiously, Congress was trying to deny Trump funding to protect the US border.
In any event, when Jordan will be offered $65 billion to absorb the migrants of ‘right-of-return’ Mudar will accept. Egypt will take the other $ 35 billion.
They will come out strengthened, and Israel will have even more enemies at its borders.
Mudar tells me that 2 years ago a state of the art wall was built on Jordan’s border with both Syria and Iraq and at a cost of $1.2 billion. He is prepared to use what ever force is necessary to prevent infiltration.
@ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Mudar will be as ruthless as needs be to maintain order.. So what is it? Will Jordan be flooded with immigrants or unable to attract immigrants?
I have asked Mudar how he will protect his borders from unwanted infiltration.
@ Ted Belman:
Ted, I do get the picture. Yet there is theory and then there will be reality.
I put it to you, that the same powers that hijacked Lord Balfour’s best intentions and subverted it to invite hundreds of thousands of Arab to settle in the Holy Land, and subsequently nurtured a virulent Arab nationalism to oust the Jews; they are the same powers that organize the mass Arab invasion of Europe today.
And these political forces will settle Jordan with Arabs from a lot of places far away, starting with the camps of Syria and the Lebanon. Just as in 1948, when UNWRA admitted thousands to the refugee camp, with no historic connection to Israel at all.
From your description, Zahran comes across as a friendly and progressive ruler. But unless he exercises a ruthless autocratic regime, the Muslims Brothers will have him ousted in no time. Thus, Jordan must remain an inhospitable country.
In spite of all the hyperbole, the Arabs of Umm al-Fahm cried murder when Israeli politicians raised the suggestion their territory could be swapped into the Palestinian Authority. They know better than that. The Arabs of the Kalandia refugee camp outside Ramallah will demonstrate the same refusal to relocate to an Arab country.
Trump’s plan would relocate 1 million Arabs to Jordan in return for USD 65 billion to the Kingdom. That works out as USD 65’000 per migrant. A boat trip with a Schlepper costs a fraction of that. Just consult with the seniors from Aliyah Bet. They can tell you how to get the job done.
Strategically, Israel is better off with a weak country on its border, rather than with a strong neighbor.
Jordan can’t find jobs, housing, schools, medical care, etc. for the ten million people who already live there, including the one million refugees from Syria. Even under a government friendly to Israel, they would need a vast infusion of cash and massive foreign investment to settle even more people in this impoverished, overcroweded country.
@ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
You don’t understand what I am writing or you are ignoring it.
The 0ne million refugees are coming from the West Bank (J&S) and Gaza but not before Abdullah abdicates and Zahran takes over..
This border has been quiet for 50 years under a hostile king. It will also stay quiet with a friendly ruler. (no intention to continue the monarchy)
Abdullah is frustrated, because he realizes his grip is coming loose. Let me enlighten you in what shape this will take form.
There are presently 1 million Arabs residing in UNRWA camps in Lebanon and Syria. They are to be moved into Transjordan.
After resisting it for 70 years, Israel finally is to be confronted on its Eastern border, with the so-called ‘right-of-return’ version lite. One million Arabs, full of hate and incitement are to be established on Israel’s Eastern border. Jordan is the designated host. How this will serve Israel’s interest, to me is an enigma.
Western nations will foot a USD 100 billion bill to fund the operation. A confederation consisting of Israel, Jordan and some make-belief ‘Palestinian’ entity in between, will face the same fate as the al-Gumh?r?yah al-‘Arab?yah, the United Arab Republic which lasted from 1958 – 1961. These things don’t hold in the Arab world.
I pity the poor Israeli soldiers conscripted into compulsory service, pressed to serve in the impossible missions created by the pipe dreams of feckless politicians. They await a similar fate as the soldiers that were ordered by Generals into ‘joint patrols’ with Palestinian forces, during the Oslo Accords. No Israeli soldier should be forced into this.