by Prof. Efraim Inbar and Dr. Max Singer
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 186, November 19, 2012
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Israel needs to send IDF ground forces into Gaza to destroy the military capabilities of Hamas and other Islamic terror groups. While Israel may pay a high diplomatic price for its actions, the longer it waits the greater the political obstacles will be to actions that limit future Palestinian and Arab attacks on Israel. If fears such as the changed political environment of the Middle East deter Israel from destroying Hamas’ military force now, the Arabs will only escalate their attacks on Israel. An immediate and strong Israeli response is necessary to ensure the Jewish state’s ability to stand against the rising tide of Islamist militancy.For nearly a week, Israel has been under attack from terrorist elements in Gaza, primarily Hamas. As the Israeli air force and navy respond with surgical, targeted strikes on Hamas facilities, the government is weighing the possibility of ordering a ground offensive too.
In our view, an armored push into Gaza in order to deal the Hamas military wing a decisive blow is necessary. From a strategic, long-term perspective, Israel cannot avoid confronting Hamas head-on, and must take action sooner rather than later. For Israel to restore quiet to its borders and ensure its survival in the new Middle East, Arab governments and terror organizations must feel that it would be a mistake for them to militarily challenge Israel. Israel must demonstrate that even in the face of great political pressures it is strong enough and willing, when necessary, to take vigorous action.
While strong Israeli action carries serious risks, strength and victory also bring many benefits. In the current and developing environment Israel has no safe or good choices; it will have to take dangerous actions. Acting later will be more dangerous than acting now, and sooner or later Israel will be forced to act.
The Imperative to Act Now – Israel in a New Middle East
For some time, we have advocated the need to respond to attacks from Gaza with a large-scale military operation. We said that if no such action was taken, the attacks against Israel would surely increase, and indeed they have. Gaza is small enough for Israel to destroy most of the infrastructure and the leadership of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the other terrorist organizations that are based there. The goal of such a ground offensive would be to restore deterrence and signal an Israeli determination to battle the rising Islamist forces in the region. By acting sooner in Gaza, Israel will also greatly reduce the missile retaliation it would face if and when it strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Current political conditions seem to weigh in Israel’s favor for an incursion into Gaza now. Hamas is politically weakened, and most of the Arab world is busy with pressing domestic issues, or with other crises such as Syria.
Today we can again say that attacks on Israel will surely further increase if the IDF does not now take the drastic and dangerous action involved in a full-scale military invasion of Gaza. A smaller operation, akin to Cast Lead, will create at most another short postponement of attacks on Israeli civilians and will be followed by further escalation.
When its environment is benign, a country should act prudently and cautiously avoid trouble. But Israel already lives in a different kind of environment, and there is every reason to expect that this environment will become more hostile in the next few years, as the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power in more countries and consolidates its position in Egypt, and as the West sinks deeper into modes of appeasement. In particular there is likely to be a higher cost to an attack on Hamas in the future as the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt strengthens its ties with the terror group.
If Israel tries to “accommodate” the current nasty diplomatic environment, it will gradually see its security eroded. Instead, Israel must boldly protect its interests and make sure that its enemies are afraid of potentially devastating consequences. As long as they believe that political pressures prevent the Jewish state from harming them, these enemies will inexorably and assuredly increase their attacks on Israel. This is due partly to natural strategy and partly to the temptation in each country to seek internal political gain by acting against Israel. With growing Muslim Brotherhood power, and the growing partial rivalry between the Brotherhood and Salafi jihadists in Egypt, the political pressure on Cairo to act against Israel will grow.
Operation Pillar of Defense – A Need to Expand the Campaign
Israel will pay a political price even for limited action beyond the current air campaign. What Israel needs to do is to make it temporarily impossible for missiles to be fired from Gaza. Such a clear-cut victory needs boots on the ground. Indeed, Israeli society is displaying great social resilience, and supports the continuation of the military effort, including a ground offensive against Hamas.
Deterrence will be created if the military branches of Hamas and the PIJ are decimated. In addition to deterrence, important practical military benefits will be gained by destroying the physical and human infrastructure that Hamas, PIJ, and other organizations have built up in Gaza, even though such infrastructure can be and will likely be rebuilt.
Combing through Gaza to nab members of Hamas and other terror groups will take perhaps several weeks. Many of these top officials are in hiding, making it clear that they are unwilling or unable to fight. This operation can be conducted only by forces on the ground.
It is likely that Israel will face very great pressure, even from the US, to desist from such an operation. Israel should resist such pressure. It should explain to the US administration and to the public what its objectives in Gaza are – the destruction of the military organizations that are threatening and attacking Israel – and the necessity of staying in Gaza for the weeks required to achieve these objectives, which will postpone the next crisis as long as possible.
If Israel is diplomatically forced to abort the effort before achieving its goals it will pay the full political price and get only a fraction of the benefits it needs in return. In fact, Israel will pay a greater political price for an attack that is prematurely cut short than it would if it were able to complete the job, no matter how much it would suffer in the court of public opinion.
Of course, a ground offensive runs the risk of getting bogged down in the Gaza quagmire and of costing Israel unexpectedly heavy troop losses. Obviously, the IDF needs to develop and effectively execute a plan designed to avoid these pitfalls. Our point is that from a strategic, long-term perspective, Israel cannot wait any longer and must confront Hamas head-on.
The bottom line is that Israel is surrounded by enemies who will spare no efforts to kill as many Israelis as possible. Israel cannot respond effectively to each small attack, and the only way to prevent small attacks is to make the enemies believe that they cannot tell when Israel will respond to a small attack with a blow that the enemy is really afraid of. What the enemy is afraid of is the loss of power, and perhaps some of the terrorist leaders are also afraid of being killed. Therefore, an escalation of conflict via a ground operation, an idea that most of the international community opposes, is nevertheless necessary.
Prof. Efraim Inbar is a professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, and a fellow at the Middle East Forum. Dr. Max Singer is a founder of the Hudson Institute and a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
It was a huge mistake to give away the Gaza strip to terrorists. Israel needs to reverse that decision by retaking it, declaring marshal law and shooting anyone who gets in the IDF’s way. Anyone who does not want to live in peace should be forced out of the strip. Destroy Hamas and the other terrorists organizations.
@ Donald freyman:
Aha! Bitter, bitter are we?
What happend to the “harmless fun” that I was to have with your permission?
Thank you for now being truthful about your intention, and welcome to what I do best.
@ Max:
Go stick a turnip up my rectum- sure I would, but with price of turnips being as high as they are I would respectfully request that you purchase me the turnip and I in turn will gladly purchase you a much needed brain. Enjoy.
@ Andrew:
Yeah , I saw a lot of that – the people are strong. They are pumped and locked and loaded. It’s admirable. There’s no problem there.
I am watching ABC news 24 at the moment. I just saw an interview with an IDF reservist. A very impressive young man, in response to whether there would be a ground invasion he, quietly and humbly, said:
“this is what we do. We are soldiers, we are warriors. We are ready to defend our families and our country”.
My thoughts and prayers for all the brave young men and women of the IDF at this moment.
Donald freyman Said:
I’m not venting, I’m telling the truth that some people need to face up to. When a puppy wittles on the carpet you need to wipe it’s nose in the urine.
Thanks for your permission. Words aren’t harmless. Let me prove it to you.
I recognize your discounting and your attack. Go stick a turnip up your rectum.
@ Max:
It is a great idea to vent. it is good for the brain and the soul and it is harmless fun. Enjoy
Andrew Said:
Never. They are committing suicide by a long painful death. They have no one to blame but themselves. This perhaps is the tipping point or close to it, beyond which they cannot recover.
It’s the law of the the jungle, if you don’t have the will to live you die.
The entire Islamic world knows that a ‘ceasefire’ is a victory for Jihad.
If anyone doesn’t think so, just watch them celebrate tomorrow in every city in North America and the rest of the world.
They really are savages. When is Israel going to close the border for good and turn off the power? I agree with Feiglan that this should be done before a ground offensive. Sta4rve them into submission
Btw, I love posting pro-israel stuff on aljazeera.
yamit82 Said:
They just selected six citizens at random – maybe people they had personal grudges against. No trial , because there was no evidence – they needed a scapegoat and needed to terrorize their own population. It’s how totalitarian societies work.
Report that CNN! No…they never will.
Sam Goldblatt Said:
Baloney. Israel just has to invade and decapitate them take the border and the Corridor how long – 3 days tops -shoot anything that moves towards the IDF. So what if there is collateral damage – it is the only way and it can be done. It’s either them or Israel – take you pick and live or die with the choice.
Oh wait they chose. Decision is suicide, right?
Suicide because of fake guilty conscience.
So I guess the toughest side won – Hamas. The terrorists are going to rejoice in all the Western Cities including all of Canada.
@ Sam Goldblatt:
We might not have to kill them. They will do each other given time.
Hamas executes 6 suspected informants for Israel today on Gaza street
Graphic!! – Masked gunmen publicly shot dead six suspected collaborators with Israel in a large Gaza City intersection Tuesday, witnesses said. An Associated Press reporter saw a large mob surrounding five of the bloodied corpses shortly after the killing.
Some in the crowd stomped and spat on the bodies. A sixth corpse was tied to a motorcycle and dragged through the streets as people screamed, “Spy! Spy!”
The Hamas military wing, Izzedine al-Qassam, claimed responsibility in a large handwritten note attached to a nearby electricity pole. Hamas said the six were killed because they gave Israel information about fighters and rocket launching sites.
The killing came on the seventh day of an Israeli military offensive that has killed more than 120 Palestinians, both militants and civilians. Israel relies on a network of local informers to identify its targets in Gaza.
The six were killed on Tuesday afternoon in Gaza City’s Sheik Radwan neighborhood. Witnesses said a van stopped in the intersection, and four masked men pushed the six suspected informers out of the vehicle. Salim Mahmoud, 18, said the gunmen ordered the six to lie face down in the street and then shot them dead. Another witness, 13-year-old Mokhmen al-Gazhali, said the informers were killed one by one, as he mimicked the sound of gunfire.
They said only a few people were in the street at first — most Gazans have been staying indoors because of the Israeli air strikes — but the crowd quickly grew after the killings. Eventually several hundred men pushed and shoved to get a close look at the bodies, lying in a jumble on the ground. One man spat at the corpses, another kicked the head of one of the dead men.
“They should have been killed in a more brutal fashion so others don’t even think about working with the occupation (Israel),” said one of the bystanders, 24-year-old Ashraf Maher.
One body was then tied by a cable to the back of a motorcycle and dragged through the streets. A number of gunmen on motorcycles rode along as the body was pulled past a house of mourning for victims of an Israeli airstrike.
Short of herding the Palestinians into gas chambers – Hamas is here to stay. Everyone and their brother is Hamas.
I like the idea of supplying Israeli towns and villages with missiles that they could randomly shoot into Gaza whenever they have the urge to do so. Israel could claim, as Hamas sometimes does, that they have no control over what some mayors and commanders might do. Firing thousands of inexpensive rockets into Gaza would be effective and acceptable to a world that has set a precedent by looking the other way when Hamas does the same.
Bravo! Strong Words! fIt makes a good epitaph. If anyone is alive at the end they can read it in the rubble. Three failures in six years due to a lack of will. Every Jihadist in the Middle East probably now is certain that Israel’s days are numbered. They probably are dividing up the plots in Gaza right now – who will get what.
It’s strange because from the TV it looked like 100 percent of the IDF wanted to go in there and fight and looked 90 percent of the population was behind them encouraging all of them on the streets.
And they just fizzled, flopped like wet noodles.
But I can’t blame them , Obama is sending over Hilary to defeat the Knesset – she is a formidable weapon. Maybe the CIA’s got some blackmail on the MKs.
Or maybe she’s going to Gaza City to be a human shield for Hamas?
And on the home front, Islam is at it again.
It’s the usual story , they all had loyalties to Islam over anyone else or any other country. I don’t think they should be blamed for who they are, Should they? I mean that’s not the problem here is it?
Three of them were immigrants, not sure about the fourth.
If Israel is not going to drive out the Arabs, flatten Gaza and re-establish full Israeli sovereignty over Gaza, I’m opposed to a ground war.
I don’t want to see Israeli soldiers’ lives cheapened out of the pusillanimity and cowardice of their leaders.
Either these soldiers’ lives will be given away for something lasting or don’t bother with another get in and get out operation.