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Israel watches with growing alarm Iran’s headlong rush to acquire nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic apparently has enriched sufficient uranium to a weapons-grade level of 80%, and could, if it chose, make a bomb “within 12 days.” Additional time — weeks or possibly months — would be needed to make it deliverable as a warhead on a missile. A senior IDF general was recently in Washington to argue for more American support – presumably, both weapons and diplomatic backing — for Israel, should it feel compelled to attach Iran’s nuclear program before a bomb is actually produced. More on that visit can be found here: “Israel seeks US support for IDF buildup as expert predicts Iran strike,” by Tovah Lazaroff, Jerusalem Post, April 13, 2023:
A top defense official sought United States support to bolster IDF forces as a security expert on Thursday predicted that Israel might have to strike Iran within the year to halt its nuclear program.
“We held important meetings to promote significant projects focused on force buildup in the face of emerging security challenges – first and foremost, the Iranian nuclear program,” Defense Ministry Director-General Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Eyal Zamir said.
He spoke after a meeting with US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl in Washington, which took place as Israel remains in danger of an immediate war on one or all of three borders – Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria – after rockets were launched during the last week against Israel from all three fronts.
The IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate informed the upper echelon on Thursday that Israel was closer to war than to a restoration of calm, according to a report in Walla.
KAN News reported that the IDF is strengthening its air defense systems throughout the country, but that in an unusual way, it was orienting Iron Dome batteries in the direction of Lebanon and Syria, rather than keeping them focused more [sic] primarily on Gaza.
Hamas in Gaza does not possess anything like the arsenal of 140,000 rockets that Hezbollah has in Lebanon; Hamas rockets launched from Gaza have yet to kill a single Israeli, and given that Israel needs to husband its Iron Dome batteries, it makes sense to concentrate them on the much greater threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon, and from both Hezbollah and IRGC forces located on bases in Syria
Former national security adviser Maj.-Gen. Yaakov Amidror warned against the dangers that Israel faced, both from Iran and from its two northern borders of Syria and Lebanon, in an interview he gave to Radio 103FM.
“We need to prepare for the war” for which the main component of the preparation would be the ability to execute a long-distance attack, Amidror said, adding that this was particularly important with respect to Iran.
Since Israeli planes would be used to bomb nuclear sites in Iran, the IAF would have to be supplied with refueling tankers in order for those planes to fly all the way to Iran and back. After several years of making requests to Washington, and being turned down, and then, when negotiations for a sale were finally entered into, having to endure more months of delays, Israel was finally able to get the Americans to agree, in September 2022, to sell them four American KC-46A Pegasus refueling tankers. But they haven’t been delivered yet, and speeding up delivery of those tankers was undoubtedly part of the discussion between Major-General Zamir and Colin Zahl.
“It could be that within the next year, we would get to the point where we would have to strike Iran to stop its nuclear program,” Amidror stated.
Israel would do this, even if it had to act alone without the United States, the former national security adviser said, explaining that it would likely receive arms and funding from Washington. The IDF has never relied on US involvement in such a strike and has planned to resolve its own security issues, he said.
“There is no need to change that” kind of self-reliance, Amidror explained.
It is important to the Israelis that they have never called on the United States to fight for it. Money, and weapons – yes, those have been requested, but no American soldiers or airmen have ever been asked to fight for, or alongside, the Jewish state. Israel remains sturdily reliant on its own military.
He also warned against a pending war with the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah in Lebanon.
There would be a lot of damage to the home front in such a war with the Lebanese terrorist group, Amidror said.
Hezbollah has a vast arsenal of 140,000 rockets, hidden all over southern Lebanon within civilian areas. They are ready to be launched into the northern Galilee, opening up another front, and inflicting enormous damage as a way to deflect IDF and IAF resources away from Iran, and complicating Israeli efforts to concentrate on devastating those underground nuclear sites at Natanz and Fordow.
These are “two completely different wars,” but for each one, the IDF has to be “very well prepared” given that they could break out in the next year, he explained.
Israel’s military deterrence has taken a hit as a result of the domestic turmoil over the judicial overhaul program, Amidror said. He referenced specifically the phenomenon of reservist soldiers who have threatened not to serve as a protest statement.
“The world looks at the State of Israel differently,” the major general said, adding that this was particularly true concerning nearby countries.
“They do not understand how it can be that within the State of Israel, there are threats to dismantle the military capability. This is how they understand the refusal movement of those who oppose the [judicial] reform.”…
100 serving IAF pilots announced they would not show up for duty as a way to protest the government’s proposed judicial reform, and they were further supported by 100 presently serving, and 1,000 retired, pilots. This was taken by Iran and Israel’s Arab enemies as a sign that the Jewish state’s military was falling apart. There was no understanding that this problem was almost instantly resolved, when the government agreed to put the judicial reform on hold. The reservists and the pilots are back, showing up for duty as before. The IDF’s image may have temporarily suffered, but its actual readiness for war has not.
Netanyahu said that Israel’s enemies should not make the mistake of thinking that the domestic turmoil had weakened the Jewish state, noting that it had executed effective counter-strikes for all the rocket attacks against it.
He spoke specifically about the attempt by Hamas to launch rockets against Israel from bases in Lebanon.
“Hamas will not open a new front in Lebanon,” he said….
Rockets were launched at Israel in the first week of April from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. They were either shot down by Iron Dome missiles, or landed harmlessly in open fields. There were no Israeli casualties, and no significant damage to property.
Netanyahu’s rhetoric was meant to impress on Israel’s enemies that the country may have been divided on judicial reform, but that division has had no long-term effect on the readiness of its armed forces to defend the Jewish state.
Zamir said that in his Washington talks, “I expressed the Israel Defense Ministry’s appreciation for the American government’s unwavering commitment to the State of Israel and its national defense and for ensuring Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region.”
What else, other than Israel asking for the delivery of the four refueling tankers to be hastened, did Major General Zamir and Colin Zahl discuss? Surely high on the list was Israel’s other great request, which is for America to supply the 30,000 pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) that so far it has been unwilling to provide. Only this, the largest American bunker buster, would be able to destroy the nuclear site that was built 250 feet underground at Natanz, and another such site built inside a mountain at Fordow.
Only when Israel has both those bunker buster bombs, and the refueling tankers it needs, will it be ready to take on Iran’s nuclear program. Will the Biden administration give Israel the weapons it needs to preemptively defend itself against the Iranian nuclear threat? Or will Biden, still proclaiming that Iran “will not get nuclear weapons on my watch,” deny the Jewish state what it needs in order to survive? You’ve watched our stumbling president for more than two years. What do you think?
This should also be recognized to have also been intended to make the same impression on Israel’s Sunni allies.