IDF is Working on a Plan to Overpower Hamas in the Next Round of Fighting

IDF officers and officials of the Israeli defense establishment convened to contemplate the question of how to overpower Hamas. Also: Five comments on the tensions vis-à-vis Assad’s armed forces and Hezbollah.

This may be regarded as just another “seminar”: IDF officers and many other officials of the Israeli defense establishment convened earlier this week at an IDF base in southern Israel to contemplate the question of how to overpower Hamas.

On the other hand, this may be regarded as a possible indication of a change in Israeli strategy: will Israel, in the context of the next round of fighting, not settle for deterring Hamas, so that no more missiles and rockets would be launched out of the Gaza Strip into Israel, and instead opt for the actual crushing of its rule?

At this point, it is difficult to tell. The brainstorming session regarding the ways to overpower Hamas was initiated by the general commanding the IDF Southern Command, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, but it is safe to assume that the inspiration had come from Minister of Defense Avigdor Lieberman. This is the same Lieberman who, as a member of the political opposition, often said that Israel should take active measures toward crushing Hamas’ rule and eliminating its leaders.

There is no way to know whether this would be the order issued to the IDF in the event of an additional round of fighting opposite Hamas, but apparently, in the event that such an order is issued, the IDF will be better prepared than is ever was in the past to execute such an order.

Assad First

The Head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, Maj. Gen. Hertzi Halevi, turned the spotlight on Hezbollah in an address he delivered at the Herzliya Conference last week. Halevi described Hezbollah as Israel’s most dangerous enemy and reported that Iran established for Hezbollah the infrastructure for the manufacture of advanced weapons in Lebanon.

Less than two days later, the element that ignited the northern front was an element loyal to the armed forces of Bashar al-Assad in the central sector of the Golan Heights. Assad’s forces repelled an attack by rebel forces – the men of Jabhat al-Nusra, affiliated with a-Qaeda.

The Syrian troopers who were defending their positions fired mortar bombs, and more than ten of these bombs landed inside Israeli territory. Some of the bombs landed in local cherry orchards at the height of the cherry picking season, and in the area of the old hospital and officer school of the Syrian Army near Quneitra, where a memorial site to the late Eli Cohen is currently located.

Fortunately, there were no casualties, but tensions ran even higher than the temperature: Israel maintains a no-restraint policy regarding enemy fire into its territory, even if it was evidently an error. So, in response, a tank of Assad’s armed forces was destroyed and two Syrian troopers were allegedly killed. There were serious concerns about the Syrians responding to this attack and the situation escalating – something none of the parties is interested in. These concerns diminished only on Tuesday, and civilian traffic went back to normal throughout the Golan Heights.

Hezbollah 2017

Back to Hezbollah: against the background of Maj. Gen. Halevi’s statements, a fascinating symposium was conducted last Friday on the state of this organization. The panel consisted of expert terrorism analyst Professor Boaz Ganor, military commentator Alex Fishman and the former head of the IDF C4I Directorate, Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Moscowitz. The host was Brig. Gen. (res.) Amnon Sofrin, formerly the IDF Chief Field Intelligence Officer and Head of the Mossad’s Intelligence Division.

The various details concerning Hezbollah in the summer of 2017 that were addressed at this symposium revealed a complex and multifaceted picture.

On the one hand, the organization actually enjoys unusual, state-grade military strength (mainly owing to its arsenal of 150,000 rockets, many of which feature GPS guidance, and a massive fleet of UAVs).

On the other hand, one third of the organization’s manpower is engaged in fighting in Syria and Yemen, under instructions from Iran. Their budget was severely curtailed pursuant to the results of the elections in the Islamic Republic, and the fact that the President of Lebanon, Michel Aoun, defined Hezbollah as a Lebanese military force will provide Israel with a greater degree of legitimacy for attacking government institutions in Lebanon in the context of the next confrontation.

Above anything else, it appears that in 2017, Hezbollah is almost totally subordinated to Iranian authority and suffers from severe losses and recruitment issues. If Hezbollah embarks on an operation against Israel, it will be the result of a mistaken appraisal of the situation or of uncontrolled escalation, and possibly against the position of Iran, which had developed Hezbollah as a deterrent intended to prevent an attack against its nuclear facilities. Will Israel take advantage of the problematic timing (as far as Hezbollah is concerned) to attack the organization’s missile arsenal? That is a different question.

The Hot Fence

An Israeli move which is about to commence in the next few weeks has the potential of leading to escalation that none of the parties involved is really interested in. This move involves the construction of a new and improved fence and obstacle system along the border with Lebanon, including the rocky and highly volatile Mount Dov sector.

The new fence system should make it difficult for Hezbollah to capture a limited Israeli area at the outset of a future confrontation, as the organization is probably planning to do. Meanwhile, the massive earthmoving and construction operations could trigger local incidents that might escalate into substantial exchanges of fire or worse. The Israeli defense establishment is preparing for such a scenario at the same time as the preparations for the engineering operations.

The Israel Defense Prize Ceremony

As temperatures ran high, the Israel Defense Prize ceremony was held on the lawn of the President’s official residence in Jerusalem. Attendants noticed that after Lieberman has been in office as Minister of Defense for more than a year, there seems to be good chemistry between him and the IDF Chief of General Staff, Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot. They often engage in whispered exchanges and convey mutual respect and correctness. The relations between them are certainly better than the relations that had existed between other Defense Minister – Chief of Staff pairs before them, including Ben-Eliezer and Mofaz, Mofaz and Ya’alon or Halutz, and certainly better than relations between Ehud Barak and Gabi Ashkenazi.

Regarding the primary project to which the Israel Defense Prize was awarded this year – the development of the Arrow-III missile defense system (a joint project of IAI, IMI and Rafael of Israel and Boeing of the USA) – many details remain undisclosed, even after the prize has been awarded.

It is already apparent, however, that the system, which is currently becoming operational, is completely different from the Arrow-II system, despite the name similarity.

Something about the unique capabilities of the new system could be learned from statements made by the CEO of IAI, Colonel (res.) Yossi Weiss (a former IDF Navy officer). Weiss told this reporter earlier this week (the complete interview will be published soon) that “When we started out, just before the end of the last decade, many people had doubts regarding the feasibility of this project.”

Back then, Weiss was Head of IAI’s missile division. “To my delight, as CEO of IAI, I have accepted the prize on behalf of all of the project personnel. Without going into specific details, I will tell you that the task of intercepting enemy missiles at altitudes outside the earth’s atmosphere and at incredible speeds, using the Arrow-III, may be likened to the difficulty involved in hitting a tiny rifle bullet fired from a distance of ten meters while it is travelling through the air. Even in the USA they say that these capabilities are at the forefront of technology, and we are extremely proud of it.” ________________________________________