By Ted Belman
Two years ago on the eve of disengagement I wrote Disengagement will bring war, not peace. And that was before the Rafah Agreement and the election of Hamas. US policy in the “peace process” has fared worse than its policy in the “war process” in Iraq, if that’s possible.
[..] On August 7th, DEBKA put the question, How Much Will Sharon Fork out for a Favorable Security Council Resolution? Subsequently Aluf Benn, in Haaretz, raises these issues in No letup to the occupation.
No rational man would ever concede on any of these issues yet Sharon is in negotiations concerning all of them. The consequences of having the free flow of arms and terrorists in and out of Gaza and the West Bank are so obvious, so certain and so frightening that no one would contemplate it much less permit it. Yet Sharon is doing just that.
In effect Sharon is saying that no price is too high to end the occupation.
[..] Furthermore, if Israel were to give in to all these demands resulting in a huge terror offensive and Al Qaeda entering Gaza etc, what would be the Quartet’s response? Somebody would have to occupy Gaza just as the US occupied Afghanistan and Iraq. But the US is now looking for an exit strategy and isn’t prepared to touch another occupation with a ten foot pole. Instead it is placing it all eggs in the PA’s basket hoping to train them and get them to bring peace where there is no peace and there is no will to peace. The US is demanding that they be given an army with heavy equipment and ammunition to take on Hamas. It boggles the mind. Talk about going for broke.
The end result of all this myopia, malevolence and quixotic thinking, will be war.
Ted
If you wish…senile. If they wish, perhaps Joseph Alexander Norland or Omri Coren could comment. But it is water under the bridge anyway. The damage was done by Sharon.
All my articles were against disengagement with one exception Disengagement changes everything. In this article I explained my new position.
Even then it was highly qualified. Shortly thereafter I wrote a piece I’m Back” but couldn’t find it.
You must be going senile.
Ted
You amd Omri Coren argued over a period of months on this site for disengagement from Gaza, backing Sharon to the hilt.
The memory is so vivid that I do not need to look it up.
Further it was not in the sense of a tactic, a temporary or tactical withdrawal, to return at a later date, it was in the sense of a retreat from that land period.
I can see it possible for national or revolutionary socialist movements to make tactical retreats. Your idea of giving up Gaza was in agreement with Sharon and was on the level of strategic.
Leave aside for the moment the argument that Sharon did it for personal reasons connected with his sons law cases etc.
Sharon took a unilateral position to withdraw.
If some how I am totally wrong and my memory is failing and senility beckons I can only apologise.
Or else I asm going mad! And the little fairies at the bottom of my garden beckon!
Even readers and contributers to this blog and others have short memories and therefor miss a lot of context to todays events. When Sharon Took over as PM from Barak(remember him? ) we were in the beginning of the Al aksa war instituted by Arafat after Barak in trying to save his PM position offered the proverbial kitchen sink to the murderer of muderers Y.A. Jerusalem was under siege and T.A and its environs were also being hit. I wont now mention the carnage of west bank as mainstream Israel then as now couldn`t have cared less. The government of Barak seemed like a helpless non swimmer flaying around in the water with no life support. Sharon was given the job for 2 reasons 1- BB miscalculated and refused to take the Job sharon got the job by default. 2)In the elections Barak was punished for offering the kitchen sink by the center to right of Israels electorate and some to the left of center due to Terror Fear.3) Barak failed to protect them and fight back. So Sharon got the nod to bring order and security where there was NONE, at that time. Sharon had no policy to deal with the pali terror we had no intel: not being in Pali territories any more (AREA A OF OSLO).Our economy was sinking fast, Bush had just been elected,(had no apparent policy) except to warn Israel to restrain itself and to stay out of ALL AREA A. Bush was always warning the sharon Government to restrain itself meaning fight terror by having 1 hand tied behind ones back. Then came 9/11 and even then Bush tried to differentiate between global terror and our home grown variety. As much as Israel tried to assert that we too are fighting our version of Global Terror it all seemed to fall on deaf ears at Americas Foggy Bottom and White House.
Here is what I believe changed: In Israel the left was down and they blamed Barak more than Sharon for failing to clinch the deal with Y.A. 50% of the left didn`t vote in the elections cause Barak was a failure and they hated Sharon and the Likud. This increased Sharons majority landslide win. But early in Sharons first term facts were published in Israeli press suggesting that Sharon and his two sons were complicit with Big Contractors in using their positions to promote Projects in return for big payoffs. Sharon was indanger of being indicted with his sons. He suddenly announced his vision and acceptance of 2 state concept. Miracle of Miracles,suddenly he was the darling of the leftist press and media who made no bones that their mission in life was to protect Sharon from prosecution so as to allow him to fulfill the ultimate left wings greatest wet dream, evacuation of all Jewish settlements in WB and Gaza. He became the most popular PM since early BG and Bush and Condi took Him to their Bosoms with the Warmest of Praises. Sharon metamorphises from ARCH VILLAIN and to some WAR CRIMINAL into a Morphed Peacenik. All talk of Indictments were if reported at all were buried on pge 18 and the media hardly at all. New revelations now and then surfaced to add credibility to accusations even a video of one of his sons admitting before the camera the Sharon family complicity. didn`t help much as leftist prosecution and mainstream press were not going to let this opportunity pass them by. This was classic case of END JUSTIFYING the MEANS. RULE OF LAW, JUSTICE, and a PUBLIC SERVANTS PUBLIC OBLIGATIONS, were cast aside by the left and suddenly with Sharon as PM from the hated Likud party most of the left rallied around and protected Sharon as none on the right could or would. So the ploy worked well for Sharon. The public were for Him as little by little the army and security services were getting a handle on things even though it took them 2 1/2 years to reverse the trend. IDF was Back in Military control of all of west bank The wall was approved and moving along terror was reduced to livable proportions ;Bush seemed to be thrilled to have the General kissing his rear end & Sharon did little or nothing to upset the Popular Bush and things for Sharon seemed to be going according to plan, so far no indictments and the left still were protecting him. His big problemm came from the idiologues on the right and within his own Likud party. So he dumped the Likud and all the financial debts the likud with he as leader built up and started clean with a party of hand picked flunkies and losers from accross the political board. Sharon carried them to big victory even though by then he was in a vegetated state.
Gaza was the pay back to the Bush admin. the 4 settlements in the Shomron district were a payback to the Israeli left. The Army is still there and in control so it was a political act to show one and all that he could when and if he wanted to do the rest. Only when Sharon had first stroke did the attorney general close investigation against Sharon.
There was never a security dimension to his Gaza first policy. Never a demographic dimension and not even a political vision. It was all a matter of Sharons EGO, and SUCKING UP TO Bush, FEAR OF CRIMINAL INDICTMENTS, What shoron didnt get was international respect for Israel, we got the Road Map instead, We didn`t get Pollard we got dead Bodies and A criminal Reserve Army Officer back from Hizbolla in exchange for the release of killers both Lebanonese and Palis.
Sharon did accomplish maybe one thing although not by deisign and that is nobody is now talking about a 2 state solution and I havent heard the term ROAD MAP for many months now. In six months Bush will be summing up his Presidency and no mjor policy initiatives will be injected at least I hope not.
It is the lesson of history; the more peace you give, the more war you get.