THIS ARTICLE IS WORTH READING BECAUSE IT GOES IN TO A MULTIPLE OF ISSUES THAT MIGHT BE NEGOTIATED WITH EGYPT like TO AFFIRM THE PEACE AGREEMENT WITH ISRAEL ETC. I THINK IT IS WISHFUL THINKING TO GET AN AGREEMENT ON SUCH ISSUES.
What an Egypt-Brokered Cease-Fire Should Look Like
Ehud Yaari, FOREIGN AFFAIRS November 17, 2012
Israel and Hamas are once again locked in a shooting war. Each day,
hundreds of missiles fly toward Israeli cities and villages. Meanwhile, the
Israeli Air Force has been systematically pounding the Gaza Strip, carrying
out no less than 1000 strikes on Hamas military targets in the last several
days. As indirect negotiations over a cease-fire progress at this moment,
with active U.S. involvement, it is time to chart a course to end this
round of hostilities.
Israel has set fairly modest goals for its campaign, dubbed Operation
Pillar of Defense. It does not seek to topple the Hamas regime in Gaza, as
it has sought in the past, nor does it want to bring about the total
collapse of Hamas’ military wing. As statements from senior Israeli
officials indicate, the objective is a long-term cease-fire along the
Israel-Gaza border. Hamas, for its part, has one objective: to stay on its
feet. It is trying to inflict maximum damage and casualties in order to
prove that Israel’s military superiority alone will not force it to back
down. With the right kind of a no-victors formula, sponsored by the United
States and other international players, a deal can be reached to ensure a
long-term calm.
Previous conflicts between Israel and Hamas, including the 2009 war, have
been resolved, with Egyptian faciliation, through a simple formula: each
side commits to refrain from opening fire as long as its adversary does the
same. But these calm periods — or* tahdia*, as they are called in Arabic
— have historically not lasted very long. Hamas has increasingly allowed
other heavily armed terrorist groups in Gaza, such as the Palestinian
Islamic Jihad, to launch attacks on Israel. And in the past few months,
despite Egyptian warnings, Hamas has targeted Israeli soldiers and military
outposts along the border, too.
This time, ending the conflict and restoring stability will require a
different type of arrangement. The cease-fire agreement should involve
other parties and contain additional checks on violence. It will have the
best chance of lasting if it is primarily based on an Israeli-Egyptian
agreement, supported by the United States and, possibly, by the European
Union. It will be up to Hamas to adhere to the terms.
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood-led government has showered Hamas with
statements of solidarity, and its prime minister made an unprecedented
visit to Gaza on the second day of the Israeli operation. But what Cairo
ultimately wants is a speedy cease-fire. Despite its support for Hamas, the
new Egyptian regime is reluctant to grant the group a defense guarantee or
to open the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt. Egyptian President
Mohamed Morsi underscored this on Friday, saying, “We don’t want a war now.”
Egypt knows well that ongoing support for Hamas’ shelling of Israeli
civilians would jeopardize the billions of dollars in international aid
that its bankrupt treasury depends on — $450 million annually from the
United States, $4.3 billion annually from the IMF, and $6.3 billion
annually from the EU’s development bank. This explains why, despite Cairo’s
venomous anti-Israeli rhetoric over the past several days, Egypt did not
take any serious actions beyond recalling its newly accredited ambassador
from Tel Aviv. Furthermore, the Egyptian military and intelligence services
are hesitant to provoke a confrontation with Israel.
Given Egypt’s adversity to conflict, Egypt and Israel should strive to
reach an understanding about Gaza. In doing so, they would reaffirm the
1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty for the post-Arab Spring era. Such an
Egyptian-Israeli understanding could include several components.
First, Egypt should broker the Israel-Hamas cease-fire at the highest
political levels, rather than through behind-the-scenes talks organized by
its General Intelligence Directorate. That in itself would constitute a
departure from the Morsi administration’s policy of putting a pause on
normalization with Israel and preventing any contact with the country other
than for military or intelligence cooperation. Egypt faces a choice:
launching a high-level political dialogue with the Israel to obtain the
cease-fire that it desires, or seeing the continuation of violence in Gaza.
An Egyptian refusal to lead the political process should raise red flags in
Washington.
Second, since most of the weapons in Gaza were trafficked through Egyptian
territory, Cairo should agree to help prevent the reconstruction of Hamas’
arsenal. For years now, Egypt has been turning a blind eye to smuggling in
the Sinai Peninsula and tolerating the operation of 1200 tunnels that run
underneath the Egypt-Gaza frontier. Cairo could try to shut down the
tunnels and intercept arms shipments that come through the Suez Canal.
Egypt, which is already domestically unstable, has every reason to prevent
renewed violence by counteracting the remilitarization of Hamas and its
allies.
Any agreement should also address the growing lawlessness in Egypt’s Sinai
Peninsula, where attacks against Israel and even sometimes against Egyptian
security personnel have become regular occurrences. Egypt’s Operation
Eagle, aimed at cracking down on insurgents there, has so far failed to
dismantle the widespread terrorist infrastructure in the area. (Hamas even
twice took the liberty of testing its long-range Fajr-5 missiles by firing
them into the Sinai desert.) Since a number of Salafi jihadist
organizations have branches in both Gaza and Sinai, for all practical
purposes the peninsula is an extension of the Gaza front.
Egypt and Israel need to ensure that when the cease-fire takes hold in
Gaza, terror operations do not simply pick up and move south to Sinai.
Despite restrictions on Egyptian military deployments in the area, which
stem from the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Israel and Egypt can work
through the decade-old Agreed Activities Mechanism to allow Egyptian units
to take up positions in the eastern Sinai. Israel has already consented to
let Egypt introduce a mechanized brigade and commando battalions in the
area. Israel could also approve the deployment of whatever Egyptian troops
are necessary — save tanks and antitank weapons — to uproot the terrorist
safe havens. Egypt won’t just be doing Israel’s dirty work; Cairo knows
that these organizations might eventually target the Suez Canal as well.
A cease-fire agreement could also address the sensitive and important issue
of border crossings. Egypt might get Israeli consent to open the Rafah
terminal on its border with Gaza, not only for passenger traffic but also
for trade. This could mean that Gaza would get its fuel and other
commodities from Egypt, while Israel would continue to supply electricity.
Egyptian ports could begin to handle the flow of goods in and out of Gaza,
and Israel would gradually phase out the commercial activities that pass
through the six terminals it now operates into Gaza. The move would signal
the completion of Israel’s 2005 disengagement from the Gaza Strip, slowly
handing over responsibility for the area’s economic needs to the Egyptian
government. Egypt, which already perceives itself as a patron of Hamas,
would see this situation favorably because it would grant Cairo more
influence over the group. And Hamas is already pleading for this type of
arrangement, seeking to end its economic dependence on Israeli goodwill.
Given its leverage over Egypt, Washington has a role to play in bringing
about such a comprehensive cease-fire — and in keeping it in place. The
Obama administration should inform Morsi that, in return for the huge
financial support Egypt gets from the United States, it must start ensuring
stability in the region, create a dialogue with Israel that is not
restricted to security personnel, prevent Egyptian territory from becoming
a safe haven for weapons smugglers, and convince Hamas militants to stop
lobbing missiles into Israeli towns and villages.
Reaching such a deal in the depths of a conflict will not be easy. But if
the aim is anything more than a temporary break from fighting, it’s a deal
worth striving for.
C.R. Said:
@ C.R.:
Why do people keep calling it a ‘war’. The terrorists are not fighting the IDF , they are assassinating civilians. It is a policing action against a criminal murdering terrorist gang.
The idea of allowing the Egyptian terrorists to broker a cease fire–is more insanity and incompetence and it would be going backward to the same failed narrative!
When all of the evil Arab Muslim terrorists and their confederates are dead–then the war will be truly over–and not before!
yamit82 Said:
I agree the pals should be ignored and relegated to the dustbin and everyone else who takes up their story. Who argues morality with the North Koreans? No one, because it will be a futile argument. The same should be true with Israel. Israel invites garbage because it opens it arms to garbage. All foreign anti israeli media and agents should be banned from Israel. If they are caught in one lie they must never return. All local anti israel arab trouble makers should face automatic deportation to any border. The europeans and americans do business with any enemy of strength regardless of morality so this game should end. None would enter a war with Israel. Israel should “break bad” an make its militarism benefit itself. Its stregth can make it a ME superpower who influences the game outside of Israel. It should stop cowering in the shadows and flex its muscles for all to see, and to feel. Many states would flock to a defense pact with Israel.
YAMIT, my reply to you is on moderation.
@ yamit82:
Western powers and their Muslim allies are involved in a major act of deceit aimed at depriving Jews of ALL their land. Were Israel any other country, they would have done it already. But Israel has a special history and some support among Americans, so they go about it using devious means to distract Israelis away from their true motives. They use proxies, threats, psychological manipulation, control of Jewish media and leadership, and more, in order to advance their agenda. You are correct about Hamas-Fatah. The Muslim-Western alliance along with the Israeli elite have done a makeover job on Arab-Nazi Fatah to present them as a moderate alternative to Hamas. Whatever their names and ideologies, all Muslim factions agree on one thing: wiping out Israel and the Jews.
You write: “Israel should decline to enter into any binding agreements with Arabs of any stripe.” Absolutely, but to do that there needs to be an end to public tolerance for an Israeli government making decisions regarding land that belongs to Jews now and forever. The statements by the PM, Lieberman and Barak that I mentioned on previous post should have raised immediate outrage, but they didn’t. So for the time being, you can’t risk hundreds of IDF lives to retake Gaza only to hand it over to Nazi Arabs playing the role of “moderate partners for peace”.
You may have to wait for a more honest and effective government, or for the population to retake the power it has surrendered to the elite and to political parties with fraudulent platforms.
@ Canadian Otter:
Hamas has the power and support to take over Y&S Palis areas whenever it suits them. They keep Abbas in Power because he is acceptable to the West and gets the money which he divides with Hamas. Obama supports Hamas (Terror) through the backdoor of the PA.
Making any deal with the Palis in the West Bank is the same as making a deal with Hamas.
The duplicitous hypocritical antisemitic Western leaders who have no special love for Hamas all say Israel has the right to defend herself but when it comes to defending they place caveats in front of defend by listing the but don’t…!
Israel should decline to enter into any binding agreements with Arabs of any stripe especially the Palis, They will eventually break them but not before using them to their own advantage and when they break the agreements Israel will be held to keep them regardless.
The only understanding that carries any weight is Peace for Peace and War for War.
And disproportionate response
NO to retaking Gaza. I could copy and paste comments I wrote elsewhere during Olmert’s Cast Lead offensive, when I said that a limited operation is better than an all-out war aimed at defeating Hamas and taking charge of Gaza.
Why? Not because bombing strategic locations and killing top terrorists is any kind of solution, but because it’s the best option with the kind of government you have. Your timid and appeasing governments (or the elite with the real power behind them) have been your greatest obstacle to peace. Were the IDF to defeat Hamas, clean up the place and retake military control, your government would soon hand it over to Fatah. With Arabs having a long-term view of the situation, they would probably agree to an imperfect arrangement with Israel so as to establish a united Palestine, complete with the promised land corridor between Ramallah and Gaza – Olmert’s vision. Arabs may be willing to sign recognition of Israel and promise to live in peace, whatever it takes, just to seize the opportunity they lost during Olmert’s government.
So yes, complete control and annexation of Gaza is the ONLY way to protect the southern cities from their nightmare of constant rocket attacks. (No citizenship for Gazans, by the way, but incentives to emigrate.) But not now, not with a government so inclined to ingratiate itself with foreign governments, media, NGOs, the Israeli left, etc., etc. Not with a government intent on partitioning Israel to create an Arab Nazi state in your heartland. Not with a foreign minister and a defense minister who have declared support for disengaging from Judea and Samaria. The proper way to peace starts with an assertive, patriotic, nationalist government. – Or with an organized population so willing to demonstrate their outrage that the government will be afraid to do anything except what’s best for the country.
What about the connection between Gaza terror and Israeli government policy agreeing to another Arab state on Judea and Samaria? – The following column focuses on land-for-peace Jews. But the greatest threat is the Israeli elite as represented by the Israeli government, which refuses to acknowledge the fact that neither land-for-peace (Sinai) nor disengagement (Gaza) bring peace – just much worse terror and the prospect of losing everything.
“Today, Missiles from Gaza; Tomorrow, from the PA” – by Mark Langfan
“Now, one million Jews sit in bomb shelters from the Gaza rockets. With Judea and Samaria in Muslim hands, six million Jews will sit in bomb shelters, especially in Tel Aviv. (But American Jews) have the gall to pontificate to Israeli Jews, who are being bombed and murdered only because they are Jewish, that Israel should cede Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) to a Muslim Nazi Auschwitz terror state. To make matters worse, these Jews with their million-dollar budgets find useful-idiot former Israeli generals and Israeli admirals and Israeli politicians who can’t earn a real living, but come to America and ‘lecture’ for tens of thousands of dollars a pop on ‘How great the Peace Process’ is.” –
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/12459
“How to End the War in Gaza”
Simple. Nuke the Islamonazi Savages.
I dare anyone to come up with a more effective and more permanent solution.