How The Trump Administration Just Changed US Policy Toward Iran

“We hope that these new measures directed at the Iranian dictatorship will compel the government to reevaluate its pursuit of terror at the expense of its people,” Trump said in his speech. “We hope that our actions today will help bring about a future of peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East – a future where sovereign nations respect each other and their own citizens.”

Limited by what it is legally able to do without going through Congress, the Trump Administration only made two main policy decisions immediately. Each one is significant, though, so here’s a quick overview.

On the Iran Deal:

• Under the terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, which Congress passed ahead of the final JCPOA agreement in July 2015, the president has to report to legislators that the Iranian government is holding up its end of the bargain in continuing exchange for a reduction in U.S. sanctions on the country.
• Trump, for the first time as President, says he will not recertify the deal, stating “I am announcing today that we cannot and will not make this certification.”
• Trump stated that he is doing this since, even though his own cabinet says that Iran is abiding by the letter of the JCPOA, it is not living up to the “spirit” of the agreement.
• The administration says Iran is violating the spirit of the deal, which specifically sought to improve “regional and international peace and security,” though a variety of actions, including continuing its provocative ballistic missile development efforts, supporting hostile foreign actors and those the U.S. government has designated as terrorist groups, harassing American military personnel, threats toward Israel, and continuing to restrict the freedoms of its own people and foreigners who travel to the country.
• None of these issues were addressed as part of the original scope of the JCPOA.
• In addition to declining to recertify the deal, which Trump has already done twice since taking office in January 2017, he announced his intention to work with Congress to “fix” the terms of the JCPOA.
• Trump stated that legislators are already drafting a new law to strengthen the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, which would, in particular link certification of the agreement directly to a halt in the country’s ballistic missile programs. At present, the JCPOA does not specifically address these issues
• Should the Trump Administration not be able to “fix” the Iran Deal, in consultation with Congress and America’s allies – there is no specific mention of renegotiating the deal with Iran – the president has said “then the agreement will be terminated.”
• The State Department has already publicly insisted that Trump’s announcement does not equate to a decision to abrogate the deal, despite his clear threat to do so in the future if Iran doesn’t meet the United States’ demands.

Sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other Iranian entities:

• Founded in the immediate aftermath of Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is powerful government entity that operates both as a parallel security organization to the country’s military and a major operator of state-owned economic interests and has the stated goal of defending the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his overarching authority. In addition, it coordinates and provides active support to numerous state security forces and non-state actors, including organizations that many consider terrorist groups, such as the Palestinian Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah.
• In 2007, President George W. Bush’s administration designated the Quds Force, a portion of the IRGC which is known to work directly with Hamas and Hezbollah, as a terrorist organization.
• The Trump Administrations’ new sanctions designate the entire arm of the Iranian government, which answers straight to Iran’s Supreme Leader, as a terrorist organization.
• In the Treasury Department’s own press release, Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin specifically cited the IRGC’s work with Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad, Hamas, and Hezbollah as the underlying reasons for the designation.
• Under the provisions of Executive Order 13224, which President Bush issued following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Treasury has the authority to freeze U.S.-based assets of any designated group and any individuals or organizations engaging with financially with that entity. The government can seek to prosecute any U.S. national for continuing to conduct transactions with sanctioned entities
• The move to designate the Quds Force as a terrorist organization in 2007 was already unprecedented and the U.S. has never before sanctioned an entire uniformed military service in a foreign country in this way.
• Given IRGC’s extensive economic enterprises, the new designation was accompanied by sanctions on four other entities, Shahid Alamolhoda Industries, the Rastafann Ertebat Engineering Company, and Fanamoj. All of these organizations have connections to the IRGC and Iran’s cruise and ballistic missile programs.
• The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the China-based Wuhan Sanjiang Import and Export Company Limited for its connections to Iran’s Shiraz Electronics Industries, a state-run defense contractor that the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics owns and operates, and that again has done work pursuant to Iran’s ballistic missile programs.

Beyond these immediate actions, Trump reaffirmed previous policy positions, including the need to constrain Iran and prevent it from gaining more influence in the Middle East and beyond, neutralizing proxies, and work with regional and global allies toward a comprehensive approach to achieving these goals. Similar pronouncements had been a key part of Trump’s major policy speech during his first overseas trip as president, to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in May 2017.

Iran makes no secret about providing support to Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthi rebels, Shia Muslim militias in Iraq and Syria, and other entities that are overtly hostile to U.S. interests and have sought to attack the United States and its interests at home and abroad. Iranian officials do routinely threaten to destroy Israel in no uncertain terms and its ballistic missiles are as clear an indication as any that they intend to make these pronouncements credible.  The government regularly imprisons journalists and other political dissidentsand jails foreigners effectively as a means of extracting concessions from its domestic and overseas opponents. It is definitely fair to question why the JCPOA fails to take any of these issues into account and that it does not has been a long-standing point of criticism of the agreement.

Also particularly noteworthy, an official White House fact sheet on Trump’s announcement said that the “United States policy has also consistently prioritized the immediate threat of Sunni extremist organizations over the longer-term threat of Iranian-backed militancy.” The president himself did not actually mention the word “Sunni” in his remarks.