Miller: While the U.S. entangles itself in the nuclear negotiations, Iran is gaining a freer hand to assert its regional influence
(CNN)If I had to describe the U.S.-Iranian relationship in one word it would be “overmatched.”
We’re playing checkers on the Middle East game board and Tehran’s playing three-dimensional chess. Iran has no problem reconciling its bad and contradictory behavior while we twist ourselves into knots over our tough choices, all the while convincing ourselves that America’s policy on the nuclear issue is on the right track.
Iran isn’t 10 feet tall in this region, but by making the nuclear issue the be-all and end-all that is supposed to reduce Iran’s power, the United States is only making Tehran taller. Consider the following:
If not, we’re legitimizing a bad regime and compromising U.S. values and interests in the process by not ensuring that all Americans being held by Iran come out as part of the nuclear deal.
- Allies
America is alienating some of our closest allies because of the Iran deal, and Iran is picking up new ones and bolstering relations with old ones who are growing more dependent because they see Iran’s power rising. Our friends aren’t perfect, particularly the Saudis and even the Israelis. But we need them precisely because Iran is rising.
Sadly, the administration is sending signals that cutting a deal on the nuclear issue takes precedence over their priorities. In the meantime, Iran’s allies, Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, Hezbollah and now the Houthis — not proxies, but instruments of convenience — see what’s happening and are willing to play and cooperate even more in the Iranian game.
The Russians, too, realize that the nuclear issue gives them cover to sell sophisticated missile defense systems and soon to export even more to gain influence and hard currency. We’re losing friends; Iran is gaining them. And in one of the cruelest ironies, Iran’s way back into the global economy is as a result of the very issue that made it such a pariah: the nuclear issue.
As the Arab world melts down and lacks a traditional epicenter of strength and power, (Egypt, Iraq, Syria), Iran is rising. The argument here is not that Iran is taking over the Middle East. But in its zone of influence, a zone critical to the United States — Syria, Iraq, the Gulf, Yemen, Lebanon — it is expanding its influence, not contracting.
Washington doesn’t play this kind of game well. It is tripping all over itself trying to figure out how to combat ISIS in Syria and yet not empower al-Assad (no answer), how to combat ISIS in Iraq without favoring the Shia-dominated government and alienating Iraqi Sunnis (no answer) and how to backstop the Saudis in Yemen without enabling them to make matters worse through their airstrikes (no answer).
Iran has a much easier time managing contradictions. Indeed, it can use the threat of ISIS to keep the Americans away from weakening their ally al-Assad as well as expand its influence in Iraq under the guise of fighting a battle of mutual interest. Battle group naval assets to the Gulf of Aden notwithstanding, the United States is being outfoxed, not outgunned.
Don’t expect U.S. ships to stop those of Iran. As State Department spokesperson Marie Harf said,
“There are reports about these U.S. ships that have been moved and I want to be very clear just so that no one has the wrong impression. They are not there to intercept Iranian ships. The purpose of moving them is only to ensure that the shipping lanes remain open and safe. I think there was some misreporting and confusion on this. I just want to be very clear that the purpose is not to do anything in terms of those Iranian ships.”
It clearly makes sense to try to use diplomacy as a way to constrain Iran’s nuclear program. But we should have no illusions about two things. First, we won’t end Teheran’s nuclear weapons pretensions, and two, we are and will be enabling its rise in the region because of this nuclear diplomacy, not constraining it. One of the reasons the United States won’t strike al-Assad is for fear of emboldening ISIS, but the other is that we don’t want a proxy war with Iran in Syria.
As the Russians have made clear in their recent S-300 deal, the nuclear negotiations are only making Iran a more acceptable business partner. And the real fruits of the diplomacy haven’t even begun yet. Sanctions relief will make the mullahs more secure and give them the resources to buck up, not tamp down, their regional aspirations.
We’ve made our bed, apparently, and now are going to have to find a way to sleep. A nuclear deal will avert a crisis over the nuclear issue for now. But unless it really does change Iran’s behavior, we’ve only bought ourselves a bigger one down the road.
@Yidvocate – My questions were rhetorical, and intended for the author, David miller. I am well aware of the issues you raised in your comment, and I am in full agreement. What continues to amaze me is that writers like Miller continue to write about Obama as if he were just a little more Left than other Democratic presidents. The result is confusion and obfuscation of what Obama and his cabal are all about.
The successive US administrationS decided to drop the ball. They were not out-foxed. Obama made the conscious decision to allow Iran to do whatever she wants.Red lines are purely rhetorical, fatwa is a farce that both Mr. O and K decided to use to “confuse” with deception. Nothing else.
@ bondmanp:
What’s with the “what ifs”?
This Obamanation was raised in madrassas and most of his family are Muslims and as he puts it “the sweetest sound is that (aweful) sound of the mouzin(?) Muslim call to pray” and “in any contest between the west the Muslims, he stands with the Muslims”. This is the guy whose brother Malak handles all the terrorist funds and investments in Kenya. You know, the fellow who sat in Rev. Wrights pew for over 20 years but heard not a word of the American and Jew hating rants of the good Reverend. The guy whose first act as President was to return the busk of Winston Churchhill in the Oval Office to Britain. The creep whose associates and promoters are all anti-American Jew-haters and who was schooled by Alynsky. What if – Really?
Miller makes the mistake many make when assessing the Obama presidency. That assumption is that the POTUS would never do anything to harm US interests or endanger Americans. But what if Obama was playing Americans for fools, rather than Iran playing Obama? What if Obama wants Iran to go nuclear and become a regional, if not world, power? What if our Naval assets were deployed to Yemen not to prevent Iran from resupplying its proxies in Yemen, but in order to protect the Iranian supply ships from Egyptian and Saudi interdiction? Miller and analysts like him need to start thinking outside the box.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2: Correct. All of your points are in place bar none. There is some chance the U.S. Congress will be able to scuttle the deal, perhaps in combination with other dynamics one can only hope and pray are in the works. My guess is they are, however I have no idea how it will manifest itself.
Few believe that it is just incompetence. Too much…
On the other hand, the subject’s history is one of a lowly “community organizer” under the “L” tracks in Chicago. That as a prelude to unknown scholastic achievements.
Why did the us voters elect such person will be subject for many studies if the US manages to survive him.