Realclearpolitics.com has the following electoral map right now. They did an average of all the leading polls to get this map.
Electoral vote totals in the “safe states” (red or blue) are:
Trump (red): 164
Hillary (blue): 203
In the remaining gray states, what’s going on?
The pollsters say those states are a toss-up. But they’re wrong.
Here’s why:
- Pollsters are wrong on the percentage of white voters relative to other voting groups.
- Pollsters are ignoring the increased Republican turnout this year.
- Pollsters are underestimating the numbers of Democrats voting for Trump – the “Trumpocrats.”
Statespoll.com has gone state-by-state and adjusted the polls for these factors. Each day, they publish realistic numbers for key states.
Here are the latest results for key states (click on the adjusted numbers to see the analysis for each state):
North Carolina: Trump +9.1%
Remington, 11/1-11/2, 2596 Likely Voters
TRUMP 48% | Hillar 45% | Johnson 3%
Adjusted: TRUMP 50.9% | Hillary 41.8% | Johnson 3.3%
Florida: Trump +6.7%
YouGov 11/2-11/4, 1188 Registered Voters
TRUMP 45% | Hillary 45% | Johnson 4% | Stein 2%
Adjusted: TRUMP 48.1% | Hillary 41.4% | Johnson 4.5% | Stein 2.8%
Colorado: Trump +5.9%
Gravis, 11/1-11/2, 1125 RV
Hillary 40% | TRUMP 40% | Johnson 7% | Stein 4%
Adjusted: TRUMP 42.9% | Hillary 37%
Pennsylvania: Trump +3.3%
Remington 11/1-11/2, 2683 Likely Voters
Hillary 46% | TRUMP 45% | Johnson 4%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.6% | Hillary 43.6% | Johnson 4.4%
Note from Statespoll.com: Remington didn’t include stein, with Stein perhaps hillary’s numbers could be minus 1~2%.
New Hampshire: Trump +2.9%
Emerson. 11/4-11/5. 1000 Likely Voters
Hillary 45.4% | TRUMP 43.8% | Johnson 4.5% | Stein 3.3%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.3% | Hillary 43.4%
Nevada: Trump +.45%
Emerson 11/4-11/5, 600 Likely Voters
Hillary 46.8% | TRUMP 45.8% | Johnson 3.9% | Stein 1.1%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.5% | Hillary 46.05%
With those six states in the Trump column plus Ohio and Georgia (Trump +5.2%) and several others, here’s what Statespoll.com believes the election will look like:
Bottom line: When you adjust the polls for real voters in 2016, you get very different results.
You get:
Trump: 315 electoral votes
Hillary: 200
Toss up: 23
That’s what real polling numbers show.
They’re showing a Trump landslide!
most community NGO”s are run by democrats.. its just one more avenue of fraud for them… crooked hillary, crooked dems… they are all crooks belonging in jail. Trump may have to sue for nulling the election.
@ bernard ross:Yes, as I said if there is regime change in Iran. Meaning the Revolutionary Army, the Atyalloyah and all the Islamists are kicked out of power and they get to a new system Israel and Iran would likely be co-existing in peace. That is highly unlikely now Obama helped them retain power with giving them billions of dollars and opening the world to do business with them.
That is too close to call, but exit polls indicate “no” has a big lead.
How dare you accuse Insect and Altacocker of being dishonest? They obviously are, but how dare you!
babushka Said:
nice story.. but I am a male and you are an elderly female calling herself babushka meaning a grandma… hence it must obviously be you.
are you now claiming to be an old man like soros instead of an old lady like a babushka…. can you make up your mind as to what you are? I am a male so your pic is irrelevant… it appears that you keep projecting grandmothers on others.
Your inability to recognize yourself is simultaneously deeply troubling and entirely predictable.
Here is a selfie:
http://russia-insider.com/sites/insider/files/fc55ad63e40696d5cae6432776d71571.jpg
babushka Said:
you sent me a picture of an old babushka… is it a selfie?
yamit82 Said:
@ babushka:
Neither know what your talking about, try discussing ED.
@ bernard ross:
ross, despite your appalling descent into delirium, I will give you credit for this much…you wear nice scarves.
http://1000funnypictures.com/wp-content/uploads/Ugly-Women-3.jpg
Anyone who thinks an Iran freed of Political Shi’a Islam of can resume relations with Israel should consider the Ayatollahs have had 36+ years to indoctrinate what is now 1/2 the population. Do you think they use textbooks that teach love of anyone not Persian and Shi’a?
Plus, the Persians adopted Shi’a Islam as a state religion in the late 18th century. It was a political move at the time.
The only real hope is a fracture of Iran into the Persian core, and then the many minorities from the Sunni Balochs to the Shi’a Azeris to the Kurds can finally be friends to Israel. Might as well wait for the 12th Missing Iman to appear in Jerusalem.
as for babuschka? as ignorant as Bret Stephens and peter Wehner about the real danger of HRC getting Obama’s 3rd term to cement his legacy of NO free speech, religious belief, shred the Constitution;
and the end of America’s grand experiment as the Land of the Free and the home of the Brave.
and I mean THE END. the takeover of NYC happened in 2013, when 78% of registered voters were intimidated into staying home, enabling the election of the Working Families Party (hostile takeover of the Democratic machine) to near total control of NYC. Example, the City Council LAW that criminalizes poor choice of PRONOUNS – businesses who use the wrong pronoun that hurts someone can be fined up to $250,000.
Illegal pronouns. Orwell is spinning…
@ babushka:
https://67.media.tumblr.com/b65c3d90fcf6118b046ef16bf6cea605/tumblr_o97ukid2Yl1qg51mgo1_r1_250.gif
babushka Said:
You seem to be well versed on this subject…. at least the dementia part…. 😛
babushka Said:
BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
babushka accuses yamit of being a grandma and being incontinent…
Is babushka projecting again or has she just forgotten her gender, or identity… she did the same with me… bringing up out of nowhere some odd almost paranoid notion that I “deftly determined that she is a male”… where did that come from?
She has already displayed delusions of reference thinking that conversations about congressmen voting were about her..
Has babushka developed dememtia or is she simply projecting?
Inquiring minds want to know
@ yamit82:
Trump a long shot? Just two days ago, a senile old turd wrote on this very site:
yamit82 Said:
I am suspicious as to soros being a jew, same with kissinger although kissinger has the accent but is it yid or german?
these jews appear to have a sort of despising type of hatred of jews, a psychopathic disdain.
Bear Klein Said:
of course that is correct, but there was a time before the ayatollahs, under the shah that the two nations were highly cooperative, as I beleive you are saying yourself. If it happened before it can happen again, which is why I mentioned it. I would expect that Israel also considers this possibility in the future. Israel is cooperating under the table with the sunnis but prior cooperation with Iran was much greater and completely in the open and might even be more attractive to Israel in the long run. Israels best relations with the sunni egypt and jordan are pretty poor and dependent on the leadership whereas the relation with Iran was, I beleive, much stronger.
babushka Said:
Actually I never mentioned that, in fact you may note that I refer to you as “she” and “her”. I am wondering now why you have brought up the question of your gender: are you perhaps intending to come out of some sort of “closet” ; are you perhaps a “transgender”, whatever that means in your world; or a transvestite; are you about to make a big announcement?
OR, perhaps its just on your mind, these gender questions that appear to be plaguing folks these days?
babushka Said:
I never determined that, it was you who told us that you are making investments that will benefit from a win by Hillary. It was you who released the bombshell that that you are betting on a hillary win with your purse… we have no idea what your vote will be because that will take place where no one can determine the facts… however, everyone knows it is very unusual for a person to bet their purse on a particular horse and then to hope and to root for the competing horse.
babushka Said:
Your very words
Dont you remember that you said that when I commented that you always posted your doom and gloom reports on trump with glee, and a certain revelry. That’s what gave you away, others post doom and gloom but without the accompanying rub it in your face glee like you do… thats the sign of someone who bet on a horse and is rooting for their horse to win. I see that now you have put away the glee in posting trump doom and gloom since I outed you.
babushka Said:
Actually, I would not make that assertion even if I were not being facetious, I would not raise you to Soros’ investment abilities by intimating that your portfolios were identical… here is what I actually wrote:
bernard ross Said:
true I was being facetious in saying that george had called and wanted to compare portfolios with you, I hope I did not uneccessarily raise your hopes for a tete a tete with georgie… however… it was a completely factual statement to say that you both are betting on the same horse.. the only difference is that he is also investing in helping her to win, but both of you are investing in the expectation of benefitting from her win… according to your own words.
babushka Said:
hmmm, if you beleive you are a male after acting here as a female then perhaps you also sincerely believe that you are george soros…sometimes stalkers engage in such identitiy transference. Are you dressing as a george soros in drag? Such flights of fancy should be discussed with your shrink, I am not qualified to help you in this area.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-08/brexit-vs-us-election-odds-then-and-now
As Ladbrokes notes, Trump’s a long-shot with odds at 22%…
Ladbrokes Politics
?
@LadPolitics
BREXIT odds on morning of June 23:
1/4 REMAIN
3/1 LEAVE
Current #ElectionDay odds:
1/4 CLINTON
3/1 TRUMP
7:38 AM – 8 Nov 2016
Speaking of pathetic, when are you finally going to confront that incontinence issue of yours? Here you go, Gramma:
Urinary Incontinence Strategies for Frail Elderly Women
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/488559
babushka Said:
Misogynist !!!!!!
– Daybreak Poll Humiliates Itself by Showing Black Vote Really Was Higher
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXZpq2l8wCw
yamit82 Said:
How can you tell.?
Here I am with yamit82 who was a good sport despite suffering the menopausal dementia exhibited by her comments in this thread:
http://www.celebfamily.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Paul-Soros.jpg
@ honeybee:
No he is not a Yid kind of Jew and he has no accent
@ babushka:
Wow you wasted all that space and typing energy to tell me that??? Pathetic you are….. You have not despite your litany of venomous vitriol against me you forgot to answer my question to you or maybe just trying to distract from answering???
yamit82 Said:
You mean he’s really Moshe Trombinik ?????????
babushka Said:
A-Because you don’t have an accent.
B-Soros may be evil but he is smart and you are evil and dumb so it’s simple deduction you can’t be Soros. 😛
@ bernard ross:The regime in Iran is opposed to Israel period. Unless there is regime change in Iran to a NON Islamic State Israel and will not reconcile.
Prior to Iran becoming an Islamic State in 1979, Israel and Iran were very friendly nations a did a huge commerce. In fact they were Israels’ supplier of oil until then.
Russia also views the Sunni terrorists a threat to their country. So they have another reason for supporting Iran.
Anyone who says Israel is not affected by US foreign policy has not paid attention to the Russian jets flying around Syria bombing the H out of civilian rebel held areas. The domino effect of collapsing arab states that is the result of Obama and Hillarys weak and pro islam policies over the last decade are living under and illusion and are easily manipulated.
babushka Said:
I told you so !!!!!!!!!!!!
You have a self-proclaimed expertise in solving mysteries.
Consequently, you have deftly determined that
a) I am male
b) I support Hillary
and
c) My portfolio is identical to that of George Soros.
And yet, in reality you are so painfully obtuse that you remain oblivious to the unavoidably obvious conclusion:
Since I am male, and I support Hillary, and my portfolio is identical to the Soros portfolio, how is it that a master sleuth like you has been unable to discern that…
…I am George Soros!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVY1-v97Mic
Bear Klein Said:
I agree and if Israel and Iran were to rapproche that might cut out Russian imports to Iran.. are they potential export competitors? However, Israel must tread a thin in dealing with the bear…prior Israel had the chance to wipe out Hezbullah before the arrival of the bear… perhaps Israel missed an important opportunity.
Bear Klein Said:
exactly, its best to see a sustainable state of chaos and disorder in the enemy lands… the paradigm of desiring stability in the enemy lands is foolish.
babushka Said:
and yet you invest in a Hillary win with your purse…..Hillary also says she has concern for Israel. We now know why you gleefully tried to push gloom and doom for trump… your horse wager was for hillary on the nose to win.
BTW, George called and wanted to compare investment portfolios with you….. apparently you both are betting on the same horse.
babushka Said:
You then, must care, a great great deal.
Ted the machine is MODERATING MY Comment. I did it twice to try and block the hold but did not succeed.
So either I get flood of emails or get moderated??
@ ArnoldHarris:
Russia needs money badly. Iran is a really big customer. They spend on nuclear plants and weapons. Russia is not bottling them up. Just the opposite they are helping them spread their tentacles right up to Israels’ doorstep.
They provide weapons to all the Iranian associated terror groups. There are 25K Shia militia under Iranian command in Syria now.
That is the reality of the middle east. Russia has her interests and needs they are coinciding with Iran’s. These interests conflict hugely with the security of Israel and Israelis.
Currently these Shias are engaged in battle with the Sunni groups. As long as that continues they both are unable to try and mess with Israel. When and if that stops if there is a clear winner they may find themselves in battle with Israel.
@ yamit82:
My concern is for Israel’s well being.
My concern for your well being does not exist, faux or otherwise.
My concern for your well being is a figment of your imagination.
It is a mermaid, a unicorn, a leprechaun.
If my concern for your well being were hair, it would be Yul Brynner’s hair.
If my concern for your well being were arms, it would be the Venus de Milo’s arms.
If my concern for your well being were brains, it would be bernard ross’ brains.
My concern for your well being is zip/zilch/nada/bupkis.
If you really want to quantify accurately my concern for your well being, you must invent a numeral that is less than zero.
babushka Said:
does hope have a vote, or does hope vote its purse? Its best not to fib, no one beleives you bet on one horse and rooted for the other.
LOL, babs already told us her purse is investing in hillary just like george soros…. she hates hillary but waddaya know she bets on her…. looks like babs and george might be benefitting from the same ill gotten gains….. the important thing is that babs says she hates hillary while usually, and gleefully, announcing gloom and doom for trump. Since I brought her gleeful behavior to sunlight she appears to have dropped the glee today.
babs says she hates hillary but wagers and invests in her winning… she and soros investing together…. I wonder who she votes for in the privacy of her booth…. LOL, does she vote for her purse and the one she hates or does she vote against hillary ascension and the continued soros stalking of jews. Investing with soros is enriching soros. My bet is that babs votes her purse.
Most unfair. Why shouldn’t international criminals belong to an organization focused on international criminals?
@ yamit82:
Yamit, Israel should not count on any foreign government either for its independence or well-being.
One good thing that will result if Trump wins the super-contest today: Restoration of relatively friendly and cooperative relations between the USA and the Russian Federation.
Like many others, I could not care less about where Russia’s western borders are located in Eastern Europe. And ultimately, I would like to see a Russia that will have a lock grip on Iran which end their threats not merely to Israel but the rest of the Middle East as well.
The end goal Israel should seek will be based on equally smooth relations with the USA, Russia, China and India.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
Nate Silver of 538.com has Trump with around a 1 in 3 chance to win the election. Several weeks ago it was 1 in 7. Two days ago it was 1 in 2.
It all depends who shows up. If there is a huge uptick in Latino voters in NV., FL., NC and Trump does not win any of these states he will lose. EVen if he just loses NV. he will need a PA or MI to win the election. If FL is lost his chances are almost nill.
Does he really have a realistic chance to win PA, or MI. They are somewhat close in polls about 4% towards Hillary but possible.
I voted Pence/Trump around a week ago because I believe Hillary would be more of the same which is knowingly bad for Israel and the USA.
Yamit is correct just leaving Israel alone to its own affairs with the Pals, Judah/Samaria and Jerusalem would be a great improvement from the past.
However continued military cooperation and backing in the UN also would be good. I believe Trump would continue this.
Would he actually move the embassy? Logistically and economically not so easy. Even if he announced that the USA is doing this and plans are in the works this be an international diplomatic significance for the good of Israel. This would signal to other countries this a good idea.
Jews who believe Soros-funded lies (my 1st read today was JChristianAdams at PJM on Soros’ evil web – where was this two weeks ago?) are overly …fill in the blank, but judgmental works. So does ‘dripping with hypocritical condescension’.
Anyway, interesting way of massaging poll numbers, but I doubt ANYONE will ever know how many registered Democrats are voting Trump. I hope it is millions, just like me, who read the Dem Platform and know this is a Party that expelled Harry S. Truman (and more recently Jim Webb), another candidate deemed unworthy of elite support
sorry for sleepy post – Trump in Grand Rapids after midnight was worth it.
Rally Grand-rapids Michigan started after midnight lasted till 1:30 am
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/11/07/2-mile-long-line-entering-trump-rally-grand-rapids-michigan-1100pm-live-stream/
@ Ted Belman:
Assuming babushka’s stated concerns and reservations re: Trump are correct and his concerns justified what are at this point the alternatives? HRC? Think not, she is the known quantity especially WRT Israel. That’s why I submit he is totally Full of it and is nothing more than a provocateur troll pulling for his own reasons our chains.
@ Ted Belman:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=469&v=sHCul_DIM_4
@ babushka:
No American Admin has been good for Israel so I disagree with your faux concern over our well being and by inference our well-being and future is decided by who sits in Oval Office.
IMO best thing any American Admin can do for Israel is to leave us alone….Politically!!!!!
@ babushka:
I think your view of him is not fair and balanced. In fact I believe it to be wrong and too judgmental.
Trump’s poll numbers during the primaries came within an average of 0.93% of his eventual total. Why will his “hidden vote” be larger now? Maybe it will, but for what reason?
.
If I believed Trump were sincere, I would vote for him on that basis alone. Yet for some inexplicable reason that doubtlessly reflects negatively upon me, I have difficulty believing a perpetually dishonest serially adulterous inveterate con man. Or for that matter, believing his spectacularly deceitful amazingly felonious depraved opponent. This is truly the election from hell. Let’s just hope that she doesn’t win in a landslide and claim a mandate for her anti-Israel leftist agenda. The Vegas over/under on Clinton’s electoral total is 310. It is likely to depend upon North Carolina, but I will take the under.
David Friedman, Trumps’s Israel’s adviser gave a talk yesterday to a Jewish audience, in which he explained the genesis of the GOP platform on Israel. He said that Trump told him at the beginning that he wanted to be the most pro-Israel president ever.
https://www.facebook.com/michal.weinstein/videos/10154120204076818/