A Hamas website article attempts to predict the future of the Palestinian Arabs after Abbas and warns of the growing possibility of the Emirate Plan coming to pass.
The end of the Mahmoud Abbas period is fast approaching, giving rise to several weighty questions:
What will happen once he is gone? Will the leader who follows him manage to unite Hamas and the PLO? What will be his relationship to Israel? Will security coordination between Israel and the PA continue? And in general – what will happen to the PA? Will it become a state? If so, what will Hamas’ standing be? What will be the borders of that entity? What will happen to Jerusalem? To the “refugees”? There are many more questions, just as important as these – and no one has the answers to any of them.
The Hamas website posted an article by one Khaider Almatzder recently, whose title was “After Abbas – Palestinian decentralization.” The accepted Hebrew translation of the word decentralization is “bizur” a word signaling the granting of power and autonomy to the various branches of government, so that each branch is administrated almost entirely independently of the central government. For example, in the USA, each state possesses a large degree of autonomy and can decide on taxation, transportation, planning, education and more, while security and foreign affairs are the purview of the Federal government in Washington.
In the article, translated here from Arabic to English, the writer describes a post-Abbas decentralized Palestinian Arab reality. My comments, as usual, are in parentheses.
Khaider Almatzder: Post-Abbas Palestinian decentralization.
What will happen after Abbas goes? Everyone is trying to guess the answer to that question and attempting to connect that that answer to certain names and people without taking into account the geographic situation currently coalescing and the nature of the renewing regional interests and affiliations which are much closer to Israel’s viewpoint than that of the Palestinian Arabs. (i.e.The Middle East works in accordance with Israel’s interests, M.K.). In order to understand the import of what is going on, we have to view things from Israel’s standpoint, especially since Israel has created a situation that is hard to ignore or replace with other scenarios.
Let’s begin with Abbas himself: He is the last historic leader and the only thread – whether we like it or not – tying the (Palestinian Arab) character which struggles as it did in the past with present political reality (which has given up the struggle). When Abbas disappears so will this historic tie to the past and the Palestinians will engage in a struggle over inheriting his position. None of the contenders, however, is identified with the struggle in a way that makes him fitting to represent the different facets of Palestinian existence (and be accepted by all the factions, as Arafat was). That is why we are going to see a legitimacy crisis whose results are not as simple as we tend to think, especially since Israel is trying with all its might to found a Palestinian entity that has no national status capable of recognition as a state, like that of the PLO and the PA. This is basically a civil administration, the lack of which would lead to total anarchy.
Israel’s objective is to find a type of rule that grants the Palestinian resident margins of self rule wide enough for him to run his daily life without being able to attain a legal and political level that allows him to demand his rights. This will be a rerun of the Arab guardianship scenario (that existed in the area until 1967, with Jordan ruling Judea and Samaria while Egypt ruled Gaza) with all the painful memories it evokes. But is it realistic to bring up the idea of a guardianship-type scenario when Israel controls the policies of the guardian? Or when Israel intends to be the guardian of part of our country?
The obvious answer is yes, because anyone examining the way Israel administrates the region, turning the West Bank into small separate entities, cannot help realizing the Israeli plan to ensure fragmentation and division, using the word “Emirate” for each section – most especially if said “Emir” answers to Israeli plans to decentralize Palestinian control. Israel will try to divide the inheritance among several heirs, without any one of them able to concentrate the rule (over the entire area) in his hands. The “Emir” will be able to consolidate his control in the section he governs if he proves his acquiescence to Israeli policy. The West Bank is fated to remain under Israeli control after Israel annexes whatever areas it chooses and leaves the remaining fragments to those whose administrative goals are agreed upon in ways that mesh with Israel’s security concerns and ignore any ideas that could lead to freedom.
In Gaza, too, the same scenario seems close to describing reality, because the split (between the PLO and Hamas, between Judea/Samaria and Gaza) is a reality, and the need for a guardian is greater than in the other territories of strategic importance to Israel. Because Gaza is closer to establishing a central governing entity, the way it will be treated is different in that Egypt will be part of Gaza’s future and any agreement will see the “struggle” as surrealistic and of no value.
What is strange is that Israel cannot control everything that goes on in Gaza, but the strategic placement of Gaza forces Israel to relinquish its rights. In addition, the efforts to find a Palestinian Arab figure on whose rule everyone agrees (instead of Abbas) will not succeed, not because of Israel but for the most part – unfortunately – because of the Palestinian Arabs themselves.
That’s why the current situation in which the PLO and Hamas hate each other and have no faith in one another will lead to the failure of any effort (to find an agreed upon leader), especially since most of the names mentioned (as possible substitutes for Abbas) are involved in regional agendas (Saudi Arabia, the United Emirates) intertwined with Israeli policy. That is why there will, in all probability, not be a central agreed upon figure, especially since Israel wants to decentralize Palestinian Arab rule. Lacking a single figure who symbolizes continuing on the tradition of the longtime struggles (which could bring all the Palestinians together) there will only be a regional solution (appointing Jordan as guardian over Judea and Samaria, Egypt over Gaza, with Israel annexing whatever it decides to annex.)
The entire political system and Palestinian legitimacy are endangered, and we must keep close track of the scenarios envisaged by those who wish to harm us. We must begin practical steps to repair the internal Palestinian rifts and choose a leader on whom we all agree. We have to put aside our differences so as to be able to dispel the new Zionist dreams (of those who support Israel from within and without) to the four corners of the earth.
That is the content of the article written by Elmatzder as posted on the Hamas website. The writer sees the situation realistically, and is well aware of the leadership crisis afflicting the Palestinian Authority. He is also well aware of the dismal situation of the Palestinian Arabs in the eyes of their Arab “brothers,” but what is interesting is that he used the term “emir” to express his opposition to Israeli intentions to divide Judea and Samaria into separate administratively autonomous entities – almost as if it were me calling them “Emirates” as I have outlined in my well known peace proposal.
There is an important principle that must be recognized by anyone interested in the Middle East: If Hamas is opposed to something, it is clear proof that the idea is positive, workable and desirable, especially for Israel. That is why, since the writer is opposed to decentralizing Palestinian rule, it is clear that this decentralization is good for Israeli interests – therefore, Israel must advance the idea of decentralization, dissolving the PA into emirates, each of which is based on loyalty to local heads of clans (hamulot) in each of the main cities in Judea and Samaria, and not based on the ideology of the struggles waged by the PLO or Hamas.
Hamas fears the “Emirate Plan” more than anything else, because wherever the clans are in control, they make short shrift of Jihadists. They do not allow any threats to the economic, political and social stability encouraged by their rule. Since Hamas fears the rule of local clans, Israel must use all the considerable means at its disposal to advance that rule, particularly now, while legitimate, centralized Palestinian leadership is nowhere to be seen.
Written for Arutz Sheva, translated by Rochel Sylvetsky.
@ Bear Klein:
They could probably win without Netanyahu. All the same he is very confident that there will be no convictions. If indicted he need not step down, in fact I think the Likud would not want him to step down at that point. The polls constantly give Likud a strong win, regardless of any possible indictments.
I think also that it would be a very bad prosecution move to charge him just before elections. They would become wildly unpopular. My inside feeling is that he’s too smart to have done anything provable warranting criminal charges resulting in convictions.
Even though corruption is almost the biggest industry in Israel. It was the same when I was there, a major reason for our departure with our 3 Israeli born children. One was born in Canada whilst on a visit. .. .
If they can elect “Oslo” Peres as President, along with his sneak system and with his enormous expenditures, they’re too stupid to know what they’re doing.
Trump plan might be rolled out after the November 2018 USA elections.
Israel due to the court ruling that the government must within three (3) months pass a new draft law including the Haredi, will likely see new elections by around January of 2019. If he is going to charged with crimes Netenyahu might be charged by then. This could lead to a change of leadership in Israel in the elections.
The middle east has a long history of the “Strongest Man” taking over control of a tribe, area, or country. This includes recent history such as in Egypt where Al-Sisi took over after a short run by the Muslim Brothehood. Sisi had the Egyptian Army behind him. This is one example.
History suggests that Jordan in the event of regime change will be ruled someone with power unless it breaks up into parts ruled by the Tribes who have the power in certain locals.
An outsider with no local power backing put into place by the USA with ties to Israel would likely end up persona non grata very quickly and called a traitor. Arab Regimes if consulted would tell the USA Administration that this not an idea that has much chance of success.
@ Edgar G.:
I meant to add that ….The Cunctator Plan worked like a charm when all else had failed miserably. It just required a thick skin and patience.
@ Bear Klein:
“Wait and see” is a very good advice to follow when a situation is in turmoil, but expected to settle down when the right opportunity arises. It also save one from seemingly projecting a little harmless malice.
What could I possibly know, other than what I also hear from Ted, and the LOGICAL, NORMAL, progressive move from possibility to probability to realisable solution that a successful American endorsement backed by Power, would result in. The last two of these moves are still to be completed.
All I KNOW is, that, the way it has been presented to me, to us all, is the soundest, best, most practical solution and which will benefit EVERYBODY. The Israelis, the Jordanians, the “refugees”, the YESHA Arabs..the surrounding Arab Nations, the Americans, and world uncertainty ……everyone…….!!
@ Bear Klein:
You completely missed “if he could pull it off successfully” in my Post to Hugo. That should have obviated any critical comment from you. Perhaps you didn’t read that part, or skimmed over it without taking it in.
Another point, assuming that Mudar had been parading around with loyal bands of followers, and indications that he would be followed, already documented as you demand, by now he’d have been assassinated or executed “legally”, or, following the venerable Iranian tradition, dangling from a derrick or crane for all to see. He definitely would not be alive.
His success, as I get tired of repeating, requires American support.
@ Edgar G.:
Edgar I asked Ted and he said wait and see.
So as I am not a mind reader, I was wondering if you had any reason beside for hope (of finding a solution) to believe in Mudar Zahran. Hope I am wrong but Mudar reminds of that guy (Allawi ?) the USA tried unsuccessfully to install in Iraq
@ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
You mirror my thoughts exactly.
@ Bear Klein:
I believe in it because of ALL the “PLANS”…ALL of them are either unworkable or just plain stupid, not understanding the Arab character, it is the only one which sounds like pure unadulterated Common Sense to me. I’m a logical thinker, not a magician, nor a fool.
You ask about “past successes” and “army of loyal followers” etc not even as rhetoricals, in a manner insulting to me, because you know I can’t provide either. I am not privy to the plans of Zahran. You know that also. I know nothing more than you, but my opinion of the worth of his plan differs materially from your because you ask for “proofs” as if I had announced myself as the Moshiach.
The whole situation in Jordan is in flux and it’s clear that Abdullah won’t last very long. He’s on a slippery slope that he can’t dismount from. All of his decisions are self-serving and wrong for the country. He hates Israel and Jews. He favours cronyism, and his hold on the mini-throne is weak.
If you want to exercise your intellect, the right person to ask is TED.
If you want to see how my mind REALLY works just read my answer to Hugo above. It’s the second post.
Edgar G. Said:
You are spot on.
By chaperoning in small, albeit very viable fiefdoms and well composed Arab principalities, Israel becomes the enabler of a resilient future federal Arab state on Jewish soil. Modeled for example on the German federation.
This would be worse than anything we have seen so far.
Israel would be blazing the way for a future Giuseppe Garibaldi, or even more fearful an Arab Otto von Bismarck to come and complete the job.
It cannot be in the interest of Israel.
@ Edgar G.:
Kindly tell what past documented successes and army of loyal followers of Mudar Zahran can demonstrate that we would believe that he is capable of leading Pal-Jordan. I am aware he is a friend of Ted’s and they have a plan but beside pure blind faith makes you believe in this?
@ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
The logical and almost certain progression from Hugo’s last sentence, would be that the Emirs, once firmly established, and naturally bolstered from opposition by the IDF, would eventually produce a “strong man”, who would eschew corruption and favouritism, The emirates, by the strngth of will of this man, would form a “Directorship” (for want of a better word) governing all the Emirates, and we wouldnbe back where we were with the Arabs, now united, demanding this that and the other. How long it would take I don’t know, Jealousy, family feuding and assassination creep into the picture- after all they are Arabs, so the time line is indeterminate.
It bothers me more than a little that nowhere to be seen in this cascading mountain of “Plans”, do we see a single mention of Mudar Zahran, who, if he could pull it off successfully, would be like manna from heaven for Israel. It’s so obvious to any moderately intelligent thinker, that THIS is the one that will cause success, properly shepherded sponsored and defended.
It would be even better to see a disintegration of the Arab localities into broken down failed entities with no material connection amongst each other.
Though fragmentation is to be welcomed, you should bear this in mind if you are busying yourself with reengineering Arab societies.
If the unraveling of Arab society into solid Emirates leads towards a stronger federalist Arab structure, that now is better equipped to accommodate their differences, yet it is easing the way towards a stronger Arab alliance, then the result is bad from Israel’s perspective.