By Alon Ben David for Al-Monitor Israel Pulse Posted on May 3.
It’s well worth noting the change underway in Hamas. It has barely restocked its supply of rockets since Operation “Pillar of Defense,” it is arresting activists involved in shootings against Israeli targets, and it has shifted its efforts from building up its military force to maintaining peace and quiet.
This site has seen more than a few articles about the ideological turnabout underway in Hamas. It has transformed itself from a movement that adhered to terrorism and armed resistance into a movement striving to attain international legitimacy and which aims at coming to power throughout the entire Palestinian Authority in the upcoming elections.
There were clear indications that such a shift was happening: Not only was Khaled Meshaal, a “pragmatist,” re-elected chairman of the movement’s Political Bureau (April 1), but top Hamas official Mahmoud al-Zahar, a leader of the hard-liners, was ejected from the Hamas leadership. Then there was the statement by the Hamas government’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ghazi Hamad that “Hamas agrees to accept a state within the 1967 borders,” and the leadership’s vigorous efforts to have Hamas removed from the list of terrorist organizations.
Facts on the ground are further evidence of changes
Once the IDF completed Operation “Pillar of Defense” in Gaza (Nov. 14-21), Israel’s Southern Command conducted a situation assessment under the auspices of the Minister of Defense. This effort to gauge the operation’s real success was conducted to assist in future planning. Pessimists among the participants anticipated no more than a single week of quiet along Israel’s southern border. Optimists looked forward to two months of calm. No one predicted what would happen in Gaza in the next five months. Even in the first days after the operation, the Southern Command was shocked to see Hamas activists scattering groups of demonstrators who gathered along the border with Israel, and even administering beatings. This was the first indication that change was underway on the ground.
What happened was that in those same days immediately after the operation, Hamas’ senior leadership conducted its own assessment of the situation. The participants included members of the movement’s political wing, but also of its military wing, which had just lost its commander, Hamas “Chief of Staff” Ahmed Jabari. (Jabari was killed in an IDF aerial assault while driving his car.) In effect, this action was the opening salvo of Operation “Pillar of Defense.” The group that convened reached the conclusion that the movement had suffered a crushing defeat. Even though they managed to fire 1,500 rockets over the course of just six days, this had no lasting significant effect on the Israeli home front, which was protected by the Iron Dome defense system. In contrast, Israel managed to conduct a surgical assault from the air with relatively few civilian casualties. The Palestinian public could actually watch the skirmishing with relative indifference. Though the Hamas commanders were hardly happy to admit it, Israel’s methodical strikes against their private residences disturbed them.
The crisis faced by the Islamic Jihad movement was even more severe. While Hamas’ military infrastructure certainly suffered a harsh blow, their military infrastructure suffered a mortal injury.
Furthermore, Hamas leaders discovered that the Muslim Brotherhood, which had just come to power in Egypt, did not really “have their back” in their war against Israel. It had no real intention to help them in any substantial way. What happened was exactly the opposite: The Egyptians demanded that Hamas halt all military actions against Israel. As if that were not enough, they also launched a few effective measures to show how serious they were. They destroyed many of the tunnels used to smuggle goods from the Sinai to Gaza, and they forbade Hamas to import subsidized Egyptian oil from El Arish as an alternative to the oil that Gaza bought from Israel, even though Hamas could sell the Egyptian oil at an enormous profit.
Hamas got the message. Under Hamas political bureau leader Khaled Meshaal’s leadership abroad, it decided unanimously to stop firing at Israel and to focus instead on what it called “the project,” i.e., the expansion of its rule in Gaza to the West Bank. From that moment on, Hamas’ main interest was to maintain quiet with the Zionist enemy, instead of living in a state of constant friction which led to rounds of intensified violence.
Hamas was actually quite zealous about enforcing a state of calm in the security “perimeter” along the Israeli border, a term that refers to the territory immediately west of the security fence encircling the Gaza Strip. The IDF prevented anyone from entering that zone, including local farmers. Now, however, it was Hamas itself that barred civilians from getting within 100 meters [109 yards] of the fence and its own armed forces from coming within 500 meters of it.
Hamas even had some success, if only partial, in preventing the firing of rockets and Qassam missiles at Israeli settlements surrounding the Gaza strip. Ever since Operation “Pillar of Defense,” some 20 rockets were fired at Israel from within the Gaza Strip, but these were fired by what the Israelis call “rebellious organizations,” another term for global jihadist organizations, which are motivated by the most extreme religious ideologies. Every time a rocket was launched, Hamas’ internal security forces were quick to arrest anyone they thought might have been involved. The detainees were interrogated (in ways that the B’Tselem human rights organization would deem unacceptable), and some of them are still in prison.
But the real test case for the political and military changes underway in Hamas occurred in the last week. For the first time since Operation “Pillar of Defense,” Israel targeted [and killed in an April 30 airstrike] a single terrorist in the Gaza strip. Hitam al-Mashal was an expert in the manufacture of rockets, who worked as a freelancer for several of the radical organizations in the Gaza Strip. He supplied the rockets that were fired from the Sinai at Eilat in April. The war-tried residents of southern Israel could already foresee that they would be forced to spend another night in their shelters, but this time something unusual happened. Hamas did not respond. But that was not all. Immediately after the event, Hamas warned the other organizations that anyone who dares to fire rockets at Israel would be arrested at once.
No less intriguing is that as of now, Hamas has still avoided restocking its arsenal of rockets. It fired 1,500 rockets during Operation “Pillar of Defense,” and several thousand more were destroyed in Israeli attacks. Nevertheless, Hamas made a conscious decision that, for the moment, it prefers not to import more Fajr and Grad rockets into the Gaza Strip.
No, Hamas has not turned into a “lover of Zion.” It also has no intention of forsaking the cause of resistance, which is an intrinsic part of its very name. As a member of the axis of Muslim Brotherhood entities in the region, which includes Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and some of the rebels in Syria, Hamas has simply decided to act responsibly on behalf of a greater interest.
And this interest means that jihad against Israel can wait.
Alon Ben David is an Israeli television and print journalist, currently senior defense correspondent for Israel’s Channel 10. He has been covering Israeli military affairs for more than 25 years for Israeli and international media outlets. He is currently senior defense correspondent for Israel Channel 10 and Middle East correspondent for Aviation Week.
@ Michael Devolin:
Does your hysteria have anything to with your comment on #10?
#32 Good point, Bert.
@ Dean:
This development offers Israel an opportunity to strengthen its political posture. Israel can now force the world to observe that Hamas is fully capable of enforcing a near total cease fire at will. Israel can issue a stern warning that any resumption of rocket fire from Gaza will mean that Hamas is behind it and NOT rouge elements and that Israel will respond with maximum force. Israel must also compel the U.S. Europe and the U.S. to witness that Hamas is in control and must bear full consequences for any future rockets.
“Brave little woman”
She is not a “brave little woman.” She is an example of Jewish Zionism, of Jewish courage. Rabbi Kahane (OBM) is alive and well.
Bernard Ross Said:
Brave little woman
yamit82 Said:
Trust me, doesn’t work, why the govt thought Mexicans can’t climb I don’t know. I will assume Arabs can climb too. Some Mexicans carry a ladder with them and the cartels are prepared for anything.
@ Bernard Ross:
State Gives Peace Now a ‘Slap in the Face’
The state filed an update with the High Court that said it was considering conferring legal status on four “outposts” in Judea and Samaria.
@ Bernard Ross:
Kassam Rocket from Gaza; Mortar Fire from Syria
Hermon site was temporarily closed to visitors after a shell – apparently stray – exploded nearby.
Dayan: Israel Has a Choice Between Bad and Worse
Former IDF general says Israelis should give thanks each day for the Golan
yamit82 Said:
Have they left gates to let the tanks back into sinai, or will they just drive through the fence? 🙂
Video: Jewish Girl Gets in the Face of Nakba Protesters
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168048#.UZUcErW1HOU
@ yamit82:
Shemen Oil sells Yam 3 stake to Caspian Drilling
Azerbaijan’s Caspian Drilling Company will bear 5% of the Yam 3 well’s operating costs.
@ yamit82:
IAI unveils maritime solutions to protect gas rigs
Israel Aerospace Industries has displayed advanced total maritime solutions at the IMDEX Singapore exhibition.
BDS worries?
2.8% Q1 growth dispels slowdown fears
Israel’s GDP rose by an annualized 2.8% in the first quarter of 2013, up from 2.6% in the preceding quarter.
Bernard Ross Said:
My comment now in moderation partially answers your speculation.
As to any of their personal ambitions Hamas since being forced out of Syria has lost much of their security of having a Stae sponsor backing and protecting them. Israel due to having been defeated in the last go in Gaza allowed Meshaal to enter Gaza for the first time in over 30 years. So I guess he feels fairly secure to openly seek leadership. For that he does not need Abbas and Fatah as in the coming elections Hamas will win and essentially take over the PA unless there is a civil war, which I consider a possibility.
They will have Egypt backing them, Turkey, the EU and Obama.
The Saudis smelling where this is all heading are once again making nice with Iran. Turkey made a deal for Oil concessions in Kurdish Iraq and now they are openly discussing a rapprochement, between Greek and Turks on Cyprus. Turkey wants in on gas and oil wealth.
The Gas and oil pipeline through Turkey from Israel is progressing.
Significant signs of gas at Karish 1 well
The reservoir has a best estimate of two trillion cubic feet of natural gas. 16 May 13 09:37
Oil and gas found at Gabriella, Yitzhak licenses
Modiin and Adira discover an estimated 128 million barrels of oil and 1.8 trillion cubic feet of gas in shallow water northwest of Tel Aviv
My comment in moderation
Bernard Ross Said:
Alon Ben David to my recollection has never has never broke a story, never has had an exclusive and always parrots what he is told by IDF spokesman or what they want him to divulge. The truth is always somewhere between what he reports and what is actually the truth. Since the IDF mirrors what our Leaders being BB, Barak and now Bogie Yaalon, Alon repeats what they want him to. If you really want to know what’s what look somewhere else.
For example: Despite the IDF pounding of Gaza the Political leadership is still intact and making decisions. It’s Hamas that has the power to raise the flame or lower it. They have the initiative of calling the shots not Israel. Israel has de-facto recognized Hamas in Gaza and is directly negotiation with them. We supply the PA with refunded taxes called tax transfers and at least 30% wind up in Gaza. Israel still supplies land line telecommunication services and wi fi, electricity, water, and medical supplies free at the expense of the Israeli tax payer.
Nobody ever speculates how much of Hamas’s munitions were preserved after the last ceasefire? how many rockets not fired or destroyed? How much was resupplied after the ceasefire? How much they manufactured in-house? Hamashas the capability of making their own medium range rockets as we saw that the ones that hit near Jerusalem and TelAviv were home made. They will I’m sure continue to improve the quality and capabilities in time, Israel supplies them with the raw material used in their manufacture.
According to reports I’ve seen Hamas was resupplied close to 100% already in January. Egypt claims to have interdicted several shipments of Rockets and even if true and I’m skeptical, how much didn’t they interdict.
Hamas since before Morsi, had along with other groups begun to use the northern Sinai as bases to attack Israel from and continue to do so aided by some 30,000 Bedouin tribesmen. Egypt conveniently can’t or won’t control the area and Israel can’t attack them directly without a confrontation with Egypt. The have checked Israel and just about checkmated us. Quiet border? Just moved it to Sinai!!!!
Meantime taking a leaf out of Hezbollah and are extensively building reenforced underground bunkers with connecting tunnels and that also includes the Sinai.
Morsi needs money , the west have the money and can cut off military supply chains so he will play ball up to a point either until he gets what he needs or concludes that he won’t get what he needs. Then all bets and restraints are off.
Israel’s options are being reduced and narrowed by the day and what are we doing and preparing? We are building a fence. 🙂
yamit82 Said:
this does not surprise me, and I expect that such reprters will try and paint hamas in an acceptable light.
yamit82 Said:
this is interesting as it is Meshaal who seems to seek a change from armed struggle. I put more faith in his personal desires than so called political desires. I think he wants to be at the top of the PLO, as written about, and that would require getting fatah/abbas consent and/or unity. I suspect that these guys are interested in themselves and their families future at this time.
yamit82 Said:
This si the card played for decades and even if the leaders of the arab nations and institutions wanted a change it would be difficult and take years to do it. However, it appears to me that someone has got hamas to play ball and my bet is that it is qatar for the GCC and for the sunni war. Hamas and Egypt are definitely playing ball with some sort of program which so far appears to benefit Israel. The weakening of Syria and Hezbullah also seem to have put Israel in a stronger position if even temporarily. If war were to break out today it seems that Israels position is better.
What did you think of the military article by ben david?
Bernard Ross Said:
Shlomi Eldar is a contributing writer for Al-Monitor’s Israel Pulse. For the past two decades, he has covered the Palestinian Authority and especially the Gaza Strip for Israel’s Channels 1 and 10, and has reported on the emergence of Hamas.
Shlomi Eldar is a charter member in Peace Now. If not by registration than by sentiment. He is pro Arab and anti-Israel. They threw him out of both Chanel 1 and Chanel 2.
Hamas in Syria was always considered hard line and Hamas leadership in Gaza more pragmatic. Public opinion polls credit Hamas attacks on Israel as positive and over 70% support them. plus there is prosperity in Gaza under their leadership.
I would not count out al-Zahar. He is no less Wiley than Meshaal, and unlike Meshaal is in Gaza physically. I don’t believe that the last word has been uttered in the fight for leadership.
Michael Devolin Said:
If I had said that, the “powers that be” would be clamering to my scalp.Bernard Ross Said:
The South’s contribution to world peace. I have the very recipe!!!!!!!!!! Along with peach cobbler!!!! I am will to turn it over to the Mossad and only the Mossad.
Canadian Otter Said:
we better run and go open a franchise. Some lucky jihadi is going to get the whole gaza for his territory 🙂
sorry, my last post included 2 links repeated from post before, only the 3rd link by ben david is relevant.
Interesting article re Israel military strategy, gaza and lebanon wars, etc
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/al-zahar-hamas-political-bureau.html
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/razi-hammed-palestinian-state-67-borders.html
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/01/isendoctrine-bendavid.html
this article appears to have some good links which clarify the internal hamas power struggles and the course that hamas is expected tot take regarding moving from “armed struggle”(war) to “popular uprising”(rhetoric). I expect that the new “reformed” hamas will pave the way to the “reason” for Israels acceptance of fatah hamas unity and of hamas. (Meshaal wants the presidency of the PLO and abbas wants to retire as the “father” of the palestinian state(with oodles of cash)
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/al-zahar-hamas-political-bureau.html
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/razi-hammed-palestinian-state-67-borders.html
the greater interest is the GCC war against Iran and its proxies and their representative, and leash, to Hamas is Qatar. they never did much damage to Israel with their rockets, it appeared only to be the usual Israel card to keep the masses in check. It is possible that they may be able to replace that card with an actual economy in the form of Qatar development money and development of their offshore gas(possibly by Qatar who has the world’s largest offshore gas field) They may even be able to compete for PA votes on the basis of economics.
Did these operations serve to remove or weaken the iranian elements influence on hamas in order to establish sunni and GCC control through qatar? Qatar requested of Israel to invest a massive sum in gaza for its redevelopment. Qatar is also funding Egypt, hamas brigades have joined the sunni war in syria. Israel had its operations and afterwards all was quiet. Is it possible, on evaluating operations, that Israel got rid of the Iran wing of hamas and is a pre determined arrangement with Qatar?
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/meshaal-and-nasrallah-brothers-who-became-enemies.html
It should be obvious that Hamas behavior is not a series of coincidences in a vaccum, and Israels agreement to cease fire may have been pre determined, which is why it was so strange without explanation. Most things which appear unexplainable become reasonable when taken in conjunction with regional events. I think there is an understanding between the GCC and Israel wrt Iran and its proxies and that this understanding prior to the faux pal state and began to be clear with the gaza cease fire and the “strange and unexplainable” behavior of hamas afterwards.. Remember that qatar had relations with Israel before.
“NOT time for the West to embrace Hamas.”
They’ve already embraced Hamas. They’ve rejected Israel. It’s not that Israel has “failed” at the propaganda game, it’s just that Israel does not deal in lies and terrorist theatre presentations. If the world were not so prone to believe every anti-Jewish fantasy and hard-luck story the Muslim world has been tossing at them, Israel would be better liked and less hated (key word here is “hated”). But the non-Jewish world, I’m ashamed to say, will never change as regards the Jews and Israel. Hamas is part of that world.
“In Islam, patience is indeed a virtue…”
Except when it comes to foreplay.
@ yamit82:
I put “proportional” in quotation marks because Israel will do all it can to put down Hamas again if they start up and they will do so with as much force as is necessary but not enough to wipe them out. Every time they go into the Gaza, Israelis deal a heavy blow to Hamas. My point is that the propaganda front is as important to fight as the military front and on that front Israel has not done as well.
I agree it’s a case of biding time. In Islam, patience is indeed a virtue – just look at Iran’s willingness to go back and forth on their nuclear program for years. It’s all about reaching an eventual goal. Hamas has shifted their approach, it would appear, but only for a season. It’s a real mistake to think they have changed for good.
Just last year, after Pillar of Defense, the “moderate” Meshaal made a vicious speech praising the armed resistance as the only means to take back territory from Israel and effectively declared that Israel should not exist by claiming all the territory from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea: http://www.themideastupdate.com/hamas-leader-calls-for-violence-to-take-every-inch-of-‘palestine’/
So yes, thankfully Hamas has scaled down and rearranged their approach to violence with Israel – but don’t think it’s just over like that. Their old weapons dealer – Iran – is no longer a good friend, thanks to Hamas choosing the opposite side in the Syrian war. And you can’t discount the devastating impact of the Iron Dome – it makes Gaza rockets largely ineffective. Once Hamas has new patrons willing to arm it, once Hamas sees weaknesses in Israel’s defense they can exploit, then Hamas will be more than open to violence again. Now is the best time for Israel to be working to prevent that – NOT time for the West to embrace Hamas.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) expressed concern for the use of footage by the IDF which suggested the agency’s complicity in “terrorist activities” targeting Israel.
The strategic point made in the article is that “jihad against Israel can wait.” Not that it is over and done with… But that it can wait until the Muslim brotherhood supporters are able to get their act together for the next step.
All the rest is tactical maneuvering to gain material resources from the Arab Emirates, Europe, US etc.
Expelling the losers is a common phenomena in the rough and tumble power politics of the Middle East.
Alon Ben David is an experienced reporter. I would ask Yamit 82 who is a skilled researcher with a wealth of information to review this article point by point and ask what is the source for each element of the information and for each assertion? The fact that this column appears inAl Monitor means that this article and the writer match a certain world view.
I heard very similar reports from the IDF intelligence just before the Yom Kippur war. Hopefully, Israel will have learned from that experience. This article and its acceptance by so many IDF sources would be a major cause for me to worry.
Clogged arteries – the way to defeat the Gazans is by sending truckloads of Kentucky Fried Chicken – They love it. They smuggle it through their tunnels and pay 3 times the regular price. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2325025/So-bargain-bucket-Delivery-firm-smuggles-KFC-chicken-Gaza-secret-tunnels-Egypt-times-normal-cost.html
@ Dean:
😉
Again, you don’t know what you are talking about.
@ Eric R.:
Eric, you got that right.
They are retooling and their intentions are not good.
If and when rockets shower Israel again, the Israeli leadership should allow the IDF to do the job, unlike Operation Cast Lead, they should dismantle Hamas top down and retake Gaza.
Don’t be fooled. Hamas is just a bunch of filthy, degenerate, subhuman, Nazi scum who are biding their time.
You see, there is a military solution and Israel found the perfect “proportional” balance to stop Hamas. Hamas is a spent force. The only ammo they have in their quiver is the endless propaganda that the international community allows them to use and helps them to deliver.
If it were not for the supporters of Hamas in America, Europe and the UN, they would be a bunch of sad derelicts fighting among themselves for overly generous and abundant portions of international aid.
When they get too violent, just smack them until the dumb asses get the message once again that Israel is not their kicking post. Their savage jihad is a jihad against civilization. Their failures are of their own making and the solution, if they give a damn – which they do not – will come from the realization that their crazy Islamic goals are counter-productive and prevent people from living normal lives in peace.