Peloni: The war in Gaza is winding down, the political leadership in the US is distracted by elections, and Hezbollah continues its assault in the North. Hence this timing could prove uniquely set for Israel to finally deal with Hezbollah. The opportunity cost of doing so, however leaves Israel dealing with the remnants of Hamas in the South, the flareups in Judea & Samaria, and the war aims in the South yet to be met. Additionally, if Israel were to delay its war with Hezbollah, it would give the Israeli forces time to rest, the further development of Israel’s Laser weapons systems, and the potential of having a more friendly ally in the White House should Trump win in November. This latter point should be tempered with the recognition that the Trump White House failed to move against Hezbollah and in fact funded the Hezbollah led govt with US aid, which distinctly contrasted with its de-funding of Iran, the PA and UNWRA, raising the question of how much latitude Trump would allow Israel in the North, presuming that he does in fact overcome the election fraud which he will be facing in November’s election. Beyond all of this, if the war is delayed, the residents of the North will fail to return to their homes, and Israel will be projecting a posture of weakness rather than strength as Hezbollah continues to depopulate the north and wreaks havoc on the countryside there and beyond.
Considering all of this, on whole I would argue for moving on the North sooner rather than later, though there are clear benefits and dilemmas associated with either moving now or later.
See Translation below Tweet
?? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ???????? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ????? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ???????? ????? ?? ?????? ???. ????? 50 ????? ???? ?? ????? ????? ?? ?????. ???? ???? ???? ???????? ?????? ??? ????. ???? ??? ?????? ?????!
— Amir Avivi ???? ????? (@Amir_Avivi) September 8, 2024
Translation:
If there is one thing we have learned from countless operations in Gaza, it is that rocket fire cannot be suppressed by hunting launchers and that success with this method is very limited. This morning 50 rockets were fired at the north and the day has just begun. Time is playing into Hezbollah’s hands and the north is an empty sword. The time has come for an attack in the north!
https://The Perils of Postponing Preemption Dr. Martin Sherman | 04/03/2018 Israel is approaching a point when it must decide to destroy the capabilities of the Hezbollah, rather than attempting to deter the enemy from using them. en.mida.org.il/2018/03/04/perils-postponing-preemption/
Maybe it is a better idea to destroy Iran’s economy by smashing its oil and gas infrastructure.
With Iran in financial difficulties, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis run out of funds and weapons.