Arlene Kushner | January 2, 2025
rrcapital
That’s what we must continue to do, as we advance our security and protect our rights – sometimes with great speed and sometimes slowly…
Last night I lit my last Chanukah candles for this holiday season; I was sorry to see it end as the light of the candles brings me peace.
And for the first time, now, I have put 2025 at the top of my posting. Another secular year gone. Hopes for a better year forward.
At this juncture, fifteen months into our war on many fronts, I want to ask: Where are we?
We have done incredible things but are still fighting this war that must be fought. Our resolve remains strong, but it is heavy.
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Sometimes, even as we watch a situation develop in a manner that was predictable, we want to say, damn!
In my last posting, I wrote that there is a strong likelihood the IDF will not leave southern Lebanon at the end of the 60 days of the ceasefire (which began on November 27), because the Lebanese army has not deployed properly in southern Lebanon, and the IDF is still continuing to find caches of weapons belonging to Hezbollah.
Now we’ve heard from Hezbollah on this: Says Hezbollah Political Council Deputy Chief Mahmoud Komati, “Day 61 will be different.” “The Islamic Resistance” forces, he indicated, would deal with the IDF [“the occupation forces”] if they are still in southern Lebanon.
“Hezbollah will not allow any local or foreign party to tamper with the red lines of the Resistance weaponry. The rocketry stockpile and the various military capabilities of the resistance are still there.”
https://english.almanar.com.lb/2301983
almanar
Let us stop here for a moment. The ceasefire deal was between Israel and Lebanon, not Israel and Hezbollah. But we see here what a farce this is, because it is Hezbollah that calls the shots in the face of the Lebanese army, which is close to powerless. It’s easy to see why the Lebanese army hasn’t deployed properly in southern Lebanon: Hezbollah doesn’t want it to.
What does it mean that Hezbollah will not allow any local party to tamper with “Resistance” [Hezbollah] weaponry? According to the ceasefire agreement, the Lebanese army is supposed to eliminate Hezbollah weaponry and keep Hezbollah from rearming. The IDF is merely doing what the Lebanese army has failed to do.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-the-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal/
Whatever the case, the Hezbollah weaponry is not all “still there.”
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The IDF is determined not to allow a situation that would again put northern residents at risk.
The ceasefire has not been pointless, because the IDF has been able to eliminate a large quantity of weaponry and will continue to do so. Thus, when or if Hezbollah does begin to attack again (a reasonable assumption, although this might be threat or a bluff), their resources will have been considerably reduced, in spite of what Komati says.
According to Israel Hayom, a senior Northern Command officer emphasized in closed discussions on Tuesday that it was critical to maintain control of strategic positions in Lebanese territory in order to defend Metula [Israel’s northernmost city] and the northern border. These positions, situated at key elevations commanding significant areas along the border, will ensure decisive tactical advantages and strengthen defensive capabilities against potential Hezbollah attacks.
IDF Spokesperson’s unit
Additionally, plans are being developed for a sophisticated new barrier along the northern border.
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With regard to Gaza and the need to maintain a consistent IDF presence there, I share this from Yaakov Lappin (emphasis added):
“The Israeli military’s extensive operations in northern Gaza over the past few months and the terrorist infrastructure that it uncovered make one thing clear: Leaving areas in Gaza without sustained security operations for extended periods invites Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) to move back in, ultimately increasing the cost of restoring order…
“The IDF’s current operations in Jabalia reveal a stark reality. Prolonged absence allows terrorist organizations to regroup, rearm and refine their tactics, leading to greater risks and higher costs when security must eventually be restored…
“Additionally, the IDF’s experience in Jabalia underscores the need for intelligence and rapid response capabilities. Intelligence-sharing between the IDF, the Shin Bet intelligence agency, and Military Intelligence has played a crucial role in identifying and neutralizing key Hamas operatives, including those involved in the October 7 massacre.
“…The IDF cannot afford to leave areas in Gaza free of security operations for extended periods of time. Only by continuously responding to intelligence regarding developing threats, as the IDF does on a nightly basis in Judea and Samaria, can Israel ensure that Hamas and PIJ are unable to reestablish their networks and pose a renewed threat.”
https://www.jns.org/israel-cannot-again-leave-gazan-areas-for-months/
JNS
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In spite of all the hoopla, there seems scant possibility that there will be a successful hostage deal now.
Reports vary, but apparently Hamas is supposed to release 34 hostages, whose names will be provided in advance. Now, not only have names not been provided, Hamas wants to release only 22 live hostages, with the remaining 12 deceased remains. This is not acceptable to Israel.
Additionally, there is no agreement on the hundreds of terrorists to be released in exchange for the hostages. Israel is refusing to release specific offenders with considerable blood on their hands – with Marwan Barghouti heading that list.
The current estimate is that there will be no breakthrough on hostage release before Biden leaves office. Some weeks ago, Trump had said there would be hell to pay if the hostages weren’t released, leaving many of us pondering what he would, or could, do.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-835635
Yesterday he reiterated the threat. “Let me put it this way: They better let the hostages come back soon.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/401617
As much as we would welcome an action against Hamas by the Trump administration, we are waiting for no one. Yesterday, Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said: “If Hamas does not release the 100 hostages it has been holding for 454 days and halt its rocket attacks on the Jewish state, Israel will deal it ‘blows with a force not seen in Gaza for a long time.’”
“The IDF will intensify its activities against the terrorist nests in Gaza until the release of the hostages and the elimination of Hamas.”
https://www.jns.org/katz-idf-will-intensify-fight-unless-hamas-frees-hostages/
Ariel Hermoni/Ministry of Defense
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Meir Ben Shabbat, head of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, has provided a thoughtful analysis of the situation in Gaza. The war, he says, is not over, as Hamas remains a central power in Gaza. Its fighters and operatives are not currently operating within organized military frameworks, but they inflict damage through localized guerrilla operations, while awaiting “the day after.”
That all-important “day after” is something which Israel needs to focus on with great resolve, as there will be an international push for the IDF to leave Gaza and turn management over to other forces. This is something Israel is determined not to allow.
Ben Shabbat describes Israel’s dilemma: “the hostage situation strengthens Hamas’ aspirations to maintain central power in Gaza post-conflict…To advance both hostage return and Hamas’ collapse, Israel needs to apply maximum pressure simultaneously through three parallel tracks: military operations, civilian infrastructure control, and diplomatic negotiations. Donald Trump’s influence already looms in the region, promising support for this approach.” (Emphasis added)
https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/02/the-war-is-far-from-over/
TPS-IL
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And so, we bolster ourselves with the knowledge of our amazing military feats to date, gird ourselves for what still lies ahead, confident that we will achieve what we must in the end. We support each other during difficult times and honor the brave and often selfless fighters who are working to protect us.
Today the IDF released casualty figures for the war: 891 soldiers have been killed in battle and an additional 5,569 soldiers have been injured.
We owe them a debt beyond what can be measured. We honor them for their sacrifices – pledging that they will not have been in vain. And we embrace their families.
What is not spoken about frequently enough is the sacrifices of young army wives – including those who have lost their husbands when married only a short time, and those who remain at home, sustaining family when the father is gone for long periods of time, or far far worse, does not come home.
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And on this note, I close with an inspiring story:
Avital Salzman already had three children when she became pregnant again. Her husband was fighting for long periods of time with the IDF reserves. She remained at home, tending the children alone, until she had to be hospitalized to protect the three fetuses she was carrying. In the end, Avital delivered triplets: one girl and two boys.
Hanoch Daum
And this is what Avital had to say about her family’s situation (emphasis added):
“The attempts to harm us will only bring new life into the world. In a year when the people of Israel lost so many heroes, a year when we sent our husbands and children to fight to preserve our lives, I was privileged to bring new lives into the world…
“The longings we had for each other, the longings for the children, the longings of the children for their father who fought and their mother who was hospitalized, these are good longings, not easy, but the reasons are good and, God willing, the results are good.
“So we really felt the right not only to fight for life on the battlefield but also to fight to bring new life into the world, a life that we received as a gift from God for the merit of our nation, with the responsibility to protect them, give birth to them, and raise them to be part of the future generation that is already here.”
This is an only-in-Israel story, and since we are an amazing people, there are many such stories. May we be buoyed and strengthened by them.
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Please, pray with a full heart…
[] for the safety of the Jewish People everywhere,
[] for the continued strength and courage of Israel’s leaders as they make the hard decisions,
[] for the safety of our soldiers in battle as they fight a righteous war,
[] and for the rescue of the hostages.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
Hopefully, things will change after Jan 20!
It does not take much intelligence to see that this war against Hezbollah and Lebanon by Israel is exactly the same as Putin moving against Ukraine in February 1922
Two genocidal wars… Lebanon against Jews, post Maidan Nazis against Russia.