FLASHBACK: Exposé written 24 years ago shows this isn’t first time official Israeli acquiescence in Islamic attack preparations draws scrutiny

{The following paper was published in Hebrew in the year 2000 as Policy Paper No. 107 of the Ariel Center for Policy Research. Updated on May 17, 1999, it included information reflecting new facts shared by Israeli military officials, after an earlier draft was released on March 22, 1999. Included here also are the official reaction to the report, and the author’s response.

Had the Palestinian Authority (PA) not been planning an actual attack on the Jewish villages, towns, and cities of Judea and Samaria (“Yesha”), as they admitted they were, it is inconceivable that they would have wasted so much money and ammunition to train an entire population in military skills – an effort that continued unchecked for four years. This is logical even without the reports from both Israeli and Palestinian official sources – with PA spokesmen stating “We have succeeded in training thousands for attack against settlements…”

But the public exposé efforts made the Israeli/Palestinian cooperation too embarrassing to continue, and they were faced with a decision:  Either cover the operation up more effectively, or call the attack off altogether.  They initially tried the first option with a shabby attempt at a cover-up that only drew laughter from citizens who heard the volume, frequency, and patterns of the gunfire every day and every night.  When they saw the “weddings” story wouldn’t be accepted, and public pressure was intensifying, they were forced to stop the training and hence also the attack.

Since then, there have been more instances of such Islamic attack training.  But they can no longer be nearly as comfortable or open about conducting blatant Yesha-wide military training, thus tilting the strategic equation in Israel’s favor, however minutely, thus delaying or preventing altogether a mass simultaneous overrunning of Judea and Samaria.

As the possibility of further evictions in Judea and Samaria draw nearer, more actions are being taken by yishuvim to further tilt the odds in their favor, to secure the future of Judea and Samaria indefinitely.}

Ariel Center for Policy Research introduction to document:

“EDITOR’S NOTE:  Prior to publication of this document, an attempt was made to confirm the validity of the facts and analyses that appear therein.  A query was directed to four bodies:  the IDF, the Defense Ministry, the Yesha Council, and the Prime Minister’s office.  Except for the Yesha Council, whose spokesman rejected the document absolutely and completely, the other bodies did not bother to answer the query.  An attempt to verify the facts through private sources (mostly IDF officers serving in the area) drew various assessments, ranging between partial denial, confirmation, and the presentation of a much more critical picture by far.”

FIRST STRIKE:  Surprise assault to which the victim is unable to mount counterattack because attacker has destroyed or pre-empted his retaliatory capacity.

SUMMARY:  Two years ago, the author began work on an independent assessment of the PA military capability in Judea and Samaria (Yesha).  In the course of this study, reports began to surface that the PA military may be acquiring the specialized equipment, units, and training for an overnight first strike against the Jewish communities of Judea, Samaria, and Gaza (Yesha).

The three major sources of information indicating the possibility of a first strike have been as follows:

1. Eyewitness reports from a network of Yesha residents concerned about security;
2. Briefings, statements and leaks from IDF officials, the Yesha Council (Moetzet Yesha), and the Prime Minister’s office, dealing with reports of a first strike capability;
3. Independent assessment by a visiting military professional experienced in first strike operations.

Indicators of a first strike include 122 confirmed or suspected armored vehicles in PA hands, rehearsals for night attack near yishuvim (Jewish villages, towns, and cities), and gathering of specialized intelligence by Arab laborers on the yishuvim.  The number of armored vehicles indicates a capability for an overnight first strike on about 40 yishuvim.

The actions and statements of the IDF may indicate an official willingness to conduct a sudden “humanitarian” evacuation of an additional thirty or forty yishuvim shortly after an Arab first strike.  Thus in one quick blow, approximately 2/3 of the yishuvim could be taken off the map:

1)  Arab Militia and Paramilitary Training in Judea and Samaria:

Recent Events & Actions by PA:

CONTINUE