By Jeffrey Goldberg, Bloomberg
Iranian President Hassan Rohani — who this week is attempting to charm the pants off the United Nations, President Barack Obama, world Jewry and Charlie Rose — may succeed in convincing many people that the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, doesn’t actually want to gain control of a nuclear arsenal.
Why Rohani would assert this is obvious: The sanctions that the U.S. is imposing on Iran are doing real economic damage. A crippled economy threatens the interests of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and thus the regime’s stability. We know that the regime isn’t popular among many segments of the Iranian population — witness the brutal crackdown on large-scale protests in 2009 — and that it must make at least some of its citizens happy if it is to survive in the long term.
Rohani hopes to convince the world that Iran’s nuclear intentions are peaceful and that his country is a rational, thoughtful player on the global stage and, therefore, please give us access once again to the international banking system.
Here are some reasons to doubt the sincerity of Iran’s protestations.
1. Rohani, so far at least, hasn’t indicated that Iran is open to reversing course on its nuclear program. He has actually said that the regime will not even talk about suspending uranium enrichment.
2. Compared to the previous president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Rohani is a moderate, likable figure. But this is an example of defining deviancy down. Rohani obviously looks moderate when compared to a Holocaust-denying lunatic. Of course, Rohani has declared himself to be neutral on the question of whether the Holocaust actually happened. He has just done this in a less confrontational way.
3. Having a nuclear arsenal is in the best interests of Iran’s rulers.
Put yourself in the shoes of the supreme leader for a moment. You’re surrounded by enemies: Almost the entire Sunni Muslim world despises you. The Jewish state, for which you have a pathological hatred, is trying to undermine your security. And behind them all stands the U.S., the country formerly known as the Great Satan, whose president says he isn’t interested in regime change — but can you actually trust an American president? Of course not. A nuclear weapon in your hands does two vital things. It protects you from external efforts to overthrow your government, and it allows you to project your power across the Middle East. You’ve seen what happens to Middle Eastern leaders who don’t have nuclear capabilities — Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi — and you don’t want to share their fate. Getting an atomic weapon is difficult, but once Iran crosses the finish line, the world will accept it as a nuclear power and the sanctions will dissolve over time.
4. It’s true that the supreme leader has argued that the use of nuclear weapons is un-Islamic. Therefore, the regime would never seek such weapons. I’d only point out that mass murder of innocent people is also prohibited by Islam, but Khamenei’s government engages in this practice through its support for Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad in Syria, among others. The regime also kills many people directly, of course, including peacefully protesting Iranians.
5. The supreme leader is, in fact, the nuclear program’s chief backer. Reuel Marc Gerecht, the former Central Intelligence Agency officer and an Iran expert, said that in Khamenei’s eyes, “He would disgrace himself before God and his praetorians, the Revolutionary Guards” if he were to give up his nuclear ambitions in exchange for an easing of sanctions. “He has invested everything in the nuclear program. It is the core of the Islamic Republic’s defense against America. Khamenei would be saying to all that America and the rest of the West had defeated him. He would forfeit the Islamic revolution and quite likely his rule.”
After years of Ahmadinejad’s alienating hijinks, Iran has chosen a different path. It has now a president (and chief negotiator) who is smooth and affable and comparatively moderate. But Rohani has been invested in his country’s nuclear program for years, and there are no signs that he’s interested in disarming in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
So what’s the play? Divide and conquer is my guess. Split the Europeans from the Americans, and the Americans from the Israelis (and the Arabs, who are also fearful of a nuclear Iran). Promise negotiations and make changes at the margins that are suggestive of broad agreement. At the same time, keep the centrifuges spinning and bring the nuclear program to the point where a bomb could be produced in a mere six or eight weeks after the supreme leader decides to cross the threshold. An Iran with the capacity to produce weapons in six weeks is a nuclear Iran. Israel and the Arab states know this, which is why they’re so worried about American enthusiasm for Rohani.
Does this mean that the U.S. shouldn’t negotiate? Absolutely not. The Obama administration should test Iran immediately. They are, in fact, squeezed by sanctions. Perhaps the squeeze is more damaging than we even think. But these negotiations should be time-limited, and sanctions shouldn’t be lifted prematurely — the sanctions are what brought the crisis to this point.
One other thing the administration should do: Listen to its former arms control expert, Gary Samore, who, according to Foreign Policy magazine, said this about the regime: “Nobody is fooled by the charm offense; everybody understands the supreme leader is seeking nuclear weapons. No matter how many times Rohani smiles doesn’t change the basic objective of the program.”
Never trust the word of the muslim. Deception is part of his book. Watch his actions, not his words.
Give me a break, Who on “G_d’s Gree Earth”, needs 5 reasons not to trust Iran!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the whole world is abuzz wasting time and energy on the latest red herring for the useful and useless idiots. The Punch and Judy show for the dolts in the audience. of course if your business is selling news or collecting a salary in politics and diplomacy then all this buzz makes you worthwhile,relevant and worth the money you are paid.
Laura Said:
This is the most stupid statement I’ve ever heard! Jeffrey Goldberg apparently hasn’t heard of the Beirut Massacre, the Khobar Towers Massacre, the attack on the US embassies in Dar Al Saalam and Nairobi, the USS Cole Massacre, 9/11, the Bali Massacre, 7/11, the Mumbai Massacre, Ft. Hood, the Tolouse School Massacre, the Westgate Mall Massacre and the internecine bloodshed in parts of the Muslim World where corpses keep piling up daily. All of which are perpetrated in the name of Islam! Genocide is at the heart of Islam. Goldberg is deluded, ignorant, a fool or likely all three when it comes to Islam.
Really? Why is violence in the name of islam at massive levels worldwide? What about the entire blood soaked history of islam?
In fact the koran repeatedly commands violence to spread islam.
Jeffery Goldberg is apparently another liberal “expert” on islam.
Seeking clarity on the UN and Iran I placed a search into google
“UN inspectors have returned to Vienna from talks in Tehran with no deal on access to Iran’s nuclear sites and no date for new talks.
“Despite its many commitments to do so, Iran has not negotiated in good faith,” said a Western diplomat accredited to the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna who was not at the talks.
“It appears that we now have to ask ourselves if this is still the right tactic.”
The deadlock is a chilling signal for a wider effort by six major powers to get Iran to curb a programme that they fear could give it the capacity to build a nuclear bomb.
The IAEA and Iran “could not finalise the document” setting out terms for an IAEA inquiry into possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear programme, chief UN inspector Herman Nackaerts said at Vienna airport after returning from Iran.
He said no new date had been set for talks that had shown no progress in more than a year, adding, “Time is needed to reflect on the way forward.”
The United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany are due to meet Iran for separate talks in Kazakhstan on February 26 to tackle a decade-old row that has already produced four rounds of UN sanctions against Iran.
But the Islamic Republic denies any military dimension to its work and is asking for acknowledgement that it is entitled to produce nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes.
With Iran heading towards presidential elections in June, it may make it hard for any official to be seen as making concessions to foreign powers, especially the US and Israel.
14 Feb 013
Al jazzeera 14 feb 2013
“On behalf of the Iranian nation, I say that whoever thinks that the Iranian nation would surrender to pressure is making a huge mistake and will take his wish to the grave,” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday, according to state television.
Iran is expanding a stockpile of higher-grade 20-percent-enriched uranium ever closer to levels where a critical mass of weapons-grade material would be only a short step away – something that Israel, the only country in the region believed to possess nuclear weapons, says would be a “red line” for action.
The US has also warned, in less direct terms, that it will do what it takes to prevent Iran getting the bomb.
Late last year it set a March deadline for Iran to start cooperating with the IAEA’s investigation, warning Tehran that it might otherwise be referred to the UN Security Council.
Tehran has said intelligence information pointing to nuclear weapons research in Iran is forged and baseless
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/2013214162124206119.html
That was 14 feb 2013…note this in above:
“…set a March deadline for Iran to start cooperating with the IAEA’s investigation, warning Tehran that it might otherwise be referred to the UN Security Council.”
So that was a March 2012 deadline
Now in today’s reports from BBC Iran is saying that a deal will be reached in 3 to 6 months with America over this
So from March 2012 to Feb 2013 to now plus 6 more months…Where are the clear facts… How many centriguges are spinning? How much already at 20 per cent?
Clear sources for this information…Help get to the bottom of this with facts which we can source
Along witht his information there is also a question to answer…why is uranium enrichment needed if only for energy?
These may seem simplistic questions but they need to be asked in simple form.
Goldberg is probably wrong…it is not the sanctions but the threat of attack by Israel, or a combination, with the emphasis on threat of attack. Also Goldberg adds to problem because he introduces the idea of another deadline. The idea of deadline is incorrect strategy. A warning open up now, then if not Israel strikes at time of its deciding.
America and Obama are out of the frame as Obama is Muslim Brotherhood, either member of or sympathetic to and it matters not which….
Any sources to above questions are appreciated very much by me…
I’m surprised Kapo Goldberg would write this. I bet he is in big trouble at the Atlantic now.