Fate of the Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade Commander “Transferred”

Zelensky Government Shaky

Stephen Bryen | Weapons & Strategy | Sep 30, 2024

Col. Ivan Vinnik (72nd Brigade photo)

The 72nd Mechanized Brigade is more or less trapped in Vuhledar (Russian Ugledar), an important Ukrainian army hub in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine.  The Russians now have it surrounded on all sides to the extent that they have fire control over all escape routes.

Instead of giving orders to pull out, something the Brigade’s Commander had been urging of the Zelensky government, Zelensky has now transferred the commander, Colonel Ivan Vinnik, in essence firing him.  No replacement has been selected.  No order to pull out has been given.

It isn’t known if Vinnik was actually stationed in Vuhledar, but that seems unlikely. One of the frequent criticisms of Ukrainian commanders is that they are not with their troops.

There have been a number of big upheavals in Ukraine’s government in the last few weeks and some are hinting there is more to come. There also was a reported assassination attempt on Zelensky’s by members of the Presidential Guard. On the hot seat is Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence. It is not at all clear if he had any role in the attempt on Zelensky, but Budanov is a potential replacement for Zelensky if his government falls. (Budanov certainly has strong links to MI6 in the UK and the CIA.)

Kyrylo Budanov in his office in Kiev. Photo: Vitaliy Nosach / Global Images Ukraine

The 72nd has been in Vuhledar since 2022, but there have been hardly any troop rotations, a source of anger as the Russians closed in on the town. It is unlikely the Ukrainians can hold onto Vuhledar much longer, numbered in days not months. There is a report that the 72nd might be relieved by the 24th Mechanized, but how they would get to Vuhledar is not explained, nor how the 72nd might be extracted is unclear.

The 72nd Mechanized was once part of the Russian army but with Ukraine independent it became an elite brigade for Ukraine. It has the official honorary title as the Black Zaporizhians Cavalry Regiment (based on the Horse Regiment of Black Cossacks where Black refers to the Black Sea).

There is a good chance the Brigade remnants may have to surrender. Attempts by small units to get out have resulted in heavy losses (between 4 and 6 out of ten according to the Military Summary Channel).

Vuhledar will be an important military and psychological victory for the Russians if they are successful.

Meanwhile, the Zelensky government seems under considerable stress and continues to pursue objectives that appear to be beyond its capabilities. Zelensky continues to pour forces into the Kursk area, that has no real strategic value for Ukraine and, despite Zelensky’s claims, is not a bargaining chip in a non-existent peace negotiation.