Will the US compromise on Syria

By Ted Belman

For at least half a year, I have been suggesting that the Syrian conflict has been maintained by outside interests. As long as these outside interests are not ready to throw in the towel the conflict will continue. What was needed, I wrote, was for a negotiated settlement in which Syria is divided between the Sunnis to the south and the Alawites and Kurds to the north. The Christians and the Druize will have to decide where they best fit in. They will each ask for a region of their own or will move to the side that best reflects their interests.

Of course Russia will be aligned with the north, both Alawites and Kurds and the US with the Sunni south and Lebanon. The US has yet to give any sign that she is willing to compromise and accept a divided country. Russia, over the last few months have indicated their acceptance of a divided Syria. What matters to Russia most is not a victory by Assad in which Assad continues to rule an undivided Syria but that the conflict end with the Alawite Region and her influence there in, intact.

The primary interest of the US is to curtail the Iranian interest in both Syria and Lebanon. Thus if Russia was prepared to throw Iran under the bus, a deal could be had quite shortly. But the US would thus be acquiescing in a permanent Russian presence in northern Syria and the eastern Mediterranean. Would the US think that is too high a price for ousting Iran from the region and possibly containing their nuclear bomb ambitions?

If a way could be found in which the Hezbollah in Lebanon could join the Alawites in their region by transfer with or without territory, it would be better for all concerned. North Syria would be strengthened and Lebanon liberated.

Yesterday it was reported, Syrian Opposition May Be Ready for Dialogue – Moscow

The Syrian opposition has realized the need to find a way out of the dead end of military confrontation, raising hopes that the crisis in Syria can be resolved peacefully, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said in an interview with the Associated Press published on the ministry’s website.

Several days ago the National Co-ordination Committee (NCC) of Syria, an influential opposition group, proposed a four-point peace plan, he said.

“In fact their plan echoes the Geneva agreements regarding the immediate cessation of violence, release of political prisoners and the beginning of a political dialogue. All of these are fully consistent with the Geneva agreements,” Gatilov said.

“The opposition is beginning to realize the need to find a way out of the impasse of military confrontation. We fully support this opposition initiative. If sentiment in favor of a political settlement grows, and we are already feeling this in the statements of the opposition, with some degree of probability we can expect that we will be able to resolve this problem by peaceful means,” Gatilov added.

Assuming that there can be agreement of this division, it doesn’t preclude a relationship between both parts from coming together on matters of mutual interest. Certainly, though, the division should be dependant on the subsequent agreement.