Exploit This Opening

Seth Frantzman tweeted the following:

Some discussion about the elimination of Nasrallah has referenced the removal of Soleimani back in 2020. Now, here is my question. There’s no doubt the killing of Soleimani was a blow, however, Iran’s IRGC-backed axis recovered and coordinated between Hamas, Hezbollah, PIJ and the Houthis.

In fact, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ became more powerful since 2020, so even fit eh IRGC was without a charismatic leader, the Iranian “axis” continued to grow.

The question with the removal of Nasrallah is, can MORE be achieved than after the removal of Soleimani. In essence, it seems to me that this needs to be exploited more if the goal is to change the region and hand Iran a major setback.

I heard a radio discussion today about the loss of Nasrallah and what it means for Hezbollah and the commentator compared the group to a chicken with its head cut off…but cautioned that when it lost its leader in the 1990s, it took it only a few years to find its footing under Nasrallah.

The point is this. Unless one accepts Hezbollah returning to its recent power in two years, then the goal must be to exploit this opening. Soleimani’s loss, in my view, was not exploited very much. He was removed but the IRGC kept marching on. It’s not clear what the long-term loss of Soleimani means, despite his importance.

Hezbollah has lost a large number of commanders and therefore it is weakened. It may be teetering now. It would be good to push it over while the time is ripe.