Likud: 32
Blue and White: 32
Joint List: 12
Yisrael Beytenu: 10
Shas: 9
United Torah Judaism: 8
Yamina: 7
Democratic Camp: 5
Labor-Gesher: 5
Otzma Yehudit: 0
Right-wing bloc without Liberman: 56
Center-left, Arab parties and Liberman: 64
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@ yamit82:
“As Kahane predicted…”
When was he ever wrong?
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
A- There are no ideological leftist parties left in Israel Shas has as much as combined Labor and Mertz.
B-There is no right-wing ideological party in Israel either.
C- Best that can be said is all major secular parties in Israel have no real ideological personality or ethos…. All are demagogic populist and opportunistic.
D- The Haredi parties are no less anti-Zionist than the Israeli Arabs except maybe the Arabs are more productive citizens.
E- This election more than any other has been a referendum on and against the influence or perceived influence of the religious on secular Israel society.
F- Both Arabs and Haredi are umbilically tied to the Gov ATM machines and both sectors a drain on the economy. People are fed up and don’t want to support the lazy parasites anymore.
As Kahane predicted the Arabs can determine governments and the nature of Israeli society legally by their votes combined with the far left like Mertz. Now we have a situation where Arab Israeli parties can block the ascent of a majority Jewish party or block and support a minority opposition… Then claim leadership of the opposition if there is a unity coalition… Leader of the opposition has many perks and by law must be included in Security assessments threats and plans.
A rightwing block will do what? Negotiate with whom? Blue & White? Labor?
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Oded will not be in the government. Sorry I listen to these people talk including ODED. He may recommend Gantz but that would be it.
Also Liberman says in very PLAIN HEBREW HE WILL NOT BE IN A GOVT. With ARABS.
@ yamit82: Don’t be so sure, Yamit. If you look at the returns carefully, the rightwing parties got a small majority of the Jewish vote. And they all committed themselves to support Bibi as Prime Minister, even though Yamina was unenthusiatic about him. The majority of “Israelis” rejected Bibi only if you include the Arab nationalists, who loyalty to the state is questionable.
@ Bear Klein: That’s not what’s going to happen, Bear. Gantz has scheduled a meeting with Ayman Odeh. The very first thing he did after the results came in. The “unity” government will be between Gantz, Lapid, Liberman, and Odeh. Unless Bibi can figure out a way to prevent it.
Friend of Mine had this idea:
Unity Govt. Blue & White + Likud sans Bibi with Saar (or anyone Likud picks) as PM. Bibi leaves but gets immunity deal to depart Likud for good.
Liberman is also pushing Likud to Dump Bibi.
@ yamit82:Gideon Saar is back in the Likud.
What do you think of him as a Prime Minister Candidate?
Also Nir Barkat is in the Likud. I believe he has potential to be a Prime Minister.
What is apparent is that the majority of Israelis don’t want BB as PM. The Likud should have dumped him long before that last election cycles. In true Machiavellian playbook, BB has forced out of the Likud and Politics anyone who posed a political threat to his leadership like Gideon Tzar….All of Likud current leadership are flunkies, yes men and protective of their own positions. Israelis know BB the corrupt liar and demagogue. Few believe anything he says and those who do need a shrink. My main concern is security and all other matters derive from the first. Look how BB and his crazy wife (Miss Piggy) treated his best and most loyal Zionist Backer Sheldon Edelson and wife Miriam!!!
Blue and White is not Mertz or even Labor more centrist but more trustworthy I believe on security… Ganz is an idiot but Bogi is more right-wing than BB.
“The king said to his servants, ‘Surely you realize that an officer and a great man has fallen in Israel this day; …” (II Samuel 3:38-39)
@ Ted Belman:Oded head of the Joint List is mulling over recommending Gantz. If he does this they have 62 if your numbers turn out correct.
Oded would not actually join the government but this would give Gantz the opportunity to try and form a government first at least. Oded would not join a unity government and Liberman would not sit with the Arab parties (for one).
13:30
With 93% of votes counted,
Netanyahu’s bloc 58
– Likud 31
– Kahol Lavan 32
– Shas, with 10
– four Arab parties, 13
-.United Torah Judaism, 9
– Yamina 7,
– Labor-Gesher 6
– Democratic Union 5
With 90% of vote officially counted,
– Blue and White edging out Likud 32-31
– the right-wing bloc is edging the left-wing bloc.
Blue and White: 32
Likud: 31
Joint List: 13
Shas: 9
United Torah Judaism: 8
Yamina: 7
Labor: 6
Democratic Camp: 5
Right-wing bloc: 56
Left-wing bloc: 55
Yisrael Beytenu: 9
In a nutshell Bibi will be able to form a right of center government with one of the following, B&W, Lieberman or Labour.
@ Bear Klein:
In April I said that Bibi should have gotten Shas and UTJ to accept the draft law because it wasn’t asking for much.
What is noteworthy now is that Lieberman will join the right government too rather than demand that it must be a unity government.
His demands are still reasonable. So that is one option. If Bibi can get Shas and UTJ to bite this bullet ( it will be better for them than having Lieberman and B and While impose it) then I believe we will have secular/religious peace for many cycles.
But I think it will be easier to make a deal with Labour. No doubt Labour will seek things in their own platform. They probably will make some of Lieberman’s demands also.
Liberman says he is not recommending anyone. He has demands that to be clear first that they will be accepted.
Draft Law word for word as he had before
Haredi Education needs to be modified with secular subjects
Shabbat transportation plus work for transporation projects be allowed on Shabbat plus Stores open on Shabbat in Secular neighborhoods
Until the above is agreed no need to talk what Ministries he wants.
Open to Likud or Gantz but above demands must be met.
Channel 13 News not 12 says it has info (not officially posted yet) that: after 90+%
Blue/White 32
Likud 32
Arab List 12
Liberman 9
Shas 9
UTJ 8
Yamina 7
Labor 6
Dem Union 5
Otzma not close
Right 56
Center/Left 52
Arab 12
Liberman could make huge demands. Deputy Prime Minister & Defense Minister plus draft of religious, etc.
Channel 12 says it has info (not officially posted yet) that: after 90+%
Blue/White 32
Likud 32
Arab List 12
Liberman 9
Shas 9
UTJ 8
Yamina 7
Labor 6
Dem Union 5
Otzma not close
Right 56
Center/Left 52
Arab 12
If it stays this way Likud/right could make deal with Labor or Liberman??
Channel 12 says it has info (not officially posted yet) that: after 90%
Blue/White 33
Likud 31
Arab List 12
Liberman 9
Shas 9
UTJ 8
Yamina 7
Labor 6
Dem Union 5
Otzma not close
Right 55
Center/Left 53
Arab 12
Likud could get one or two seats after soldiers votes come in.
Lapid in his speech asked the media and the public to be patient as the negotiations to form a government will take time and will be delicate.
Liberman is kingmaker. Now the right/religious are wishing they had given in to him last election in April.
With 26.5 percent of votes counted,
Likud is leading with 29.2% to Blue and White’s 24.4%.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
No the Arab areas have not come in at all if you look at the count until now.
Only if somehow Otzma crosses the threshold and the right get a couple more seats also besides Otzma it might squak by. NOT likely.
@ Bear Klein: Thanks for the update, Bear. I checked out the website you told us about, and was able to figure out some of what you just reported even though I have only a smattering of Hebrew. But I was not able to understand everything. Please continue to report to us from time to time on the actual results as they are counted. The rest of the media is ignoring the actual vote count.
It looks to me that if trend holds up, the Right may end up having a clear majority, despite the predictions of the polls,
With 18% Counted
Likud 29%
Blue/White 24%
Shas 9%
Yisrael Betenyu 8%
UTJ 7%
Yamina 7%
Labor 5%
Dem. Union 3.8%
Joint List 2.4%
Otzma 2.39%
10% of Actual Vote Counted:
Likud 30.50% 198,867
???? ??? – ?????? ??? ??? ????? ???? ??
Blue/White 23.60% 153,896
Shas 9.14% ??????? ??????? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ???? ??”? ??
59,603 Yisreal Betenyu 9.00%
UTJ 6.79%
44,271
Yamina 6.09%
39,746
Labor 4.91%
32,042
Democratic Union3.56%
Joint List 3.18%
Bibi just gave his post election speech to the Likud. His message was that in the coming weeks we will work to establish a Zionist Govt. The audience kept chanting we do not want a unity government. A right wing government at this point is likely unrealistic.
Reading in between the lines what will be important to Bibi is to fight Iran plus negotiate a good deal with Trump on Judea/Samaria. He was hoarse and one could sense that he realized that for him and the right things are very tough.
The Blue/White speakers (quartet ) were much happier.
With only a few votes counted, the first actual voting returns, as reported a few minutes ago by the Jerusalem Post, seem to place a very different light on the results.
Of course such a small sample is insignificant. Still, perhaps it is a sign of hope for the Right.
@ Bear Klein: I realize that the Blue/White/Likud/Leiberman coalition idea is both favored and expected by many people. My gut feeling is that it is unrealistic. Bibi and most other Likud MKs think Leiberman is a Political “traitor” and should be punished.Bibi was careful to pick personal loyalists for the Likud candidates. According to one report from a reliable reporter (can’t remember his name) 35 are personal laoyalists of Bibi. But eve the three “dissidents” signed the loyalty oath to Bibi, not to support anyone else for Prime Minister. And even these three “dissidents” have major policy differences with the Blue-White leadership, and are said to be unwilling to serve in a Blue-White government. Those who dream of of a Gantz-led government with the support of a tame Likud, minus Bibi to give it legitimacy., in my opinion , don’t understand the dynamics of Israeli politics or the prevailing mood in the Likud.
It would make better sense for the Likud and the other rightwing parties to sit out the process if President Rivlin asks Gantz to form a new government, and then wait out the 28 days to see if he succeeds.. In order to do that, he will need the support of both Liberman and the Ayman Odeh, and keep the loyalty of his own wing of Blue-White while making a deal with Odeh and his anti-Zionist, Arab-nationalist followers. That will be no easy task. Even if Gantz succeeds, the government he forms will probably be notable unpopular, and might collapse in less than a year due to internal dissension.
If Gantz does not succeed in putting together a coalition in the permitted 28 days, Rivaling will ask Bibi to try. After a failed attempt to form a government under Gantz, some members of Gantz’s own faction might reluctantly agree to serve under Bibi. He might also be able to make a deal with Labor, which has served in coalition governments with the Likud in the past.
Of course there are many other possibilities. All that is fairly certain is that the next six months in Israeli politics will be turbulent and unstable. Not a good thing for Israel with the enemy at the gates.
If there is a unity government Oded the head of the Arab Joint List will become the first Arab who is the head of the opposition. Assumption Likud & Blue/White will be part of the Unity Government.
@ Bear Klein:All the Arabs who are interviewed said that Bibi motivated them to come to the ballot box with his attacks on the Arabs. They say he made a big mistake in coming out saying that the Arabs want to slaughter the Jews.
First actual results see this link. Need to read a little Hebrew to use it.
https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/?fbclid=IwAR3S9gPsLJEEuXYNs0lpPhU51G27PJn_biWGHgMvxtAAIxeDPHAEZMc7Ewk
This is the official government website.
Two other channels have Arab Joint List at 11 and 12 not
15 like Channel 13 News
Correction Liberman with 8 not 9
Channel 13 Projected Results very different as NOW. Shock
These projections are done by Professor Camille Fox
Blue/White 32
Likud 30
Joint List (Arabs) 15
Shas 9
Yisrael Betenyu 8 (correction)
UTJ 8
Yamina 6
Labor 6
Democratic Union 6
Center/Left/Liberman = 50
Right/Religious = 53
Arab 15
If this stands ONLY a unity government is possible. Hard also to make a government without Liberman. Third elections anyone?
Channel 13 Projected Results very different as NOW. Shock
These projections are done by Professor Camille Fox
Blue/White 32
Likud 30
Joint List (Arabs) 15
Shas 9
Yisrael Betenyu 9
UTJ 8
Yamina 6
Labor 6
Democratic Union 6
Center/Left/Liberman = 51
Right/Religious = 53
Arab 15
If this stands ONLY a unity government is possible. Hard also to make a government without Liberman. Third elections anyone?
The actual results will be available maybe at 6:00 AM Israeli time (11PM EST or 8PM PST in the USA) we will find out if anything significant changes.
I am watching Channel 13 and they are going wild with all the possibilities.
The main inside the ballpark rumor they spreading is that Gantz most wants to have a unity government with the Likud (implied without Bibi). All the Likudniks interview say Bibi is the one and only leader of the Likud is Bibi.
@ Ted Belman: Ted, the three exit polls published so far all give contradictory results. One gives the left-of-center parties plus the Arabs, but without Leiberman, 58 seats.
I think we will have to wait for the final “unofficial” results to come in around 12pm Israeli time oon Wednesday to have a pretty good idea of who won and who lost. Even then, the President has said he won’t poll the parties as to which candidate the prefer as Prime Minister until September 25, eight days from now. There will be frenzied politicing until that time. Both sides will have a hard time forming a coalition. And it will be tough to form a Blue-White-Likud coalition as well. Whatever government does get formed will probably have a lot of internal bickering and be unstable. A mess. I hope that Israelis can survive their own foolishness.
Hashem yishmiranu! That is the only solution. Tshuva tfila utzedaka mavirin es roah hagzeira!
IT LOOKS LIKE BIBI IS 5 SEATS SHORT OF 61
HE WILL HAVE TO CUT A DEAL WITH EITHER LEIBERMAN OR LABOUR