T. Belman. Prior to reading this article I was depressed after reading, Can Trump turn it around?, published by THE HILL. It included stuff like this:
It’s not just Trump’s numbers in head-to-head match-ups with Clinton that are problematic. An ABC News/Washington Post poll earlier this week found Trump was viewed unfavorably by 70 percent of the electorate. More troubling still, he was seen unfavorably by 94 percent of African-Americans, 89 percent of Hispanics and 77 percent of women.
Thus the following article is a relief.
By Sierra Rayne, AMERICAN THINKER
Stepping out of reality into the rapidly expanding landfill of polling data biased against Donald Trump reveals what a disaster is taking place when it comes to surveying the public’s actual opinion — rather than the desired liberal narrative — about the 2016 general election.
Public Policy Polling (PPP) has released yet another state poll on the Trump versus Hillary Clinton match-up, this time for Virginia. Yesterday’s article examined a range of PPP’s state-level polling data in the Trump v. Clinton cage match, revealing some apparently serious liberal bias. The Virginia poll just adds to the concerns.
The proverbial “tell” in these types of data sets is how respondents answered the question regarding their presidential vote in 2012. If the poll is representative of the public, the relative percentages of Obama 2012 versus Romney 2012 voters surveyed should approximate — within reason — how the state in question actually voted in 2012. But if there are significant deviations between the poll’s composition and the 2012 results, the cause either needs to be fully explained by the pollster, or we default to the assumption of a bias.
PPP’s Virginia poll, representing “one of the most important swing states in the country,” claims the following:
The Presidential race in Virginia is pretty tight. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 42-39, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head contest Clinton’s lead remains 3 points at 48/45. Clinton’s benefiting from Democrats in Virginia (83/8) being more unified around her than Republicans (76/5) are around Trump. But with independents Trump’s up 42/29.
When asked who they voted for in the last presidential election, 50% of respondents said Obama while just 41% said Romney, for a 9% Obama (read: liberal) edge. But Obama only won the state by 3.9% in 2012, meaning there appears to be at least a 5% liberal bias in the survey composition.
Remove that bias favoring the Democratic candidate, and Clinton’s lead disappears — leaving Trump likely leading by 2% or more in Virginia, depending on the potential presence of other compounding biases in the poll.
Then there is the latest edition of Reuter’s Polling Explorer from June 14, supposedly showing Clinton up by 8.5% over Trump, 39.1% to 30.6%. But of the 1,481 respondents, 642 (43.3%) are Democrats, 493 (33.3%) are Republicans, and 206 (13.9%) are Independents, with 138 (9.3%) “members of another party.” A 10% bias of Democrats over Republicans is 9% above the past two-month average of actual party affiliations. Remove that liberal bias, and now the race is a statistical tie.
Even worse, when asked who they voted for in 2012, 582 (39.3%) said Obama and just 355 (24.0%) said Romney. Thus, since the national results in 2012 only had Obama ahead of Romney in the popular vote by 3.9%, we conclude this suggests a 11.4% liberal bias in the survey composition. Based on this built-in bias, it appears Trump may actually be ahead of Clinton by nearly 3% at the national level once the bias is corrected for.
Finally, there is a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday — and conducted June 11-15 — that claims Clinton is up 9% over Trump in the head-to-head. No demographic data was released with the poll, which should raise a red flag. With what information we can tease out of the information provided, significant flaws are apparent.
Based on the data for “All Adult Americans” surveyed on issues such as the major problems facing the nation, as well as Obama’s approval rating and whether the nation is headed on the right track or not, it is clear that the ratio of Democrats:Republicans in the poll was a remarkably high 2:1! For interested readers, the general math behind such calculations is described in my previous article.
Moving on to the head-to-head match-up among registered voters, solving the available polling data with a 3-equation system solver reveals that the Trump versus Clinton poll appears to be comprised of about 46% Democrats and 36% Republicans, for a 10% Democrat bias. Yet again, remove the clear bias, and Clinton’s lead is gone.
This isn’t surprising, given the source. Serious concerns have been raised previously over the possible political motivations behind liberal bias in Ipsos polling.
Overall, in all polls seen to date at the state or national levels, systematic liberal bias is clear. In some cases, Democrats are being polled at apparent 2:1 ratios over Republicans, and in all situations, once the polling bias is removed, so is any Clinton lead.
Stepping out of reality into the rapidly expanding landfill of polling data biased against Donald Trump reveals what a disaster is taking place when it comes to surveying the public’s actual opinion — rather than the desired liberal narrative — about the 2016 general election.
Public Policy Polling (PPP) has released yet another state poll on the Trump versus Hillary Clinton match-up, this time for Virginia. Yesterday’s article examined a range of PPP’s state-level polling data in the Trump v. Clinton cage match, revealing some apparently serious liberal bias. The Virginia poll just adds to the concerns.
The proverbial “tell” in these types of data sets is how respondents answered the question regarding their presidential vote in 2012. If the poll is representative of the public, the relative percentages of Obama 2012 versus Romney 2012 voters surveyed should approximate — within reason — how the state in question actually voted in 2012. But if there are significant deviations between the poll’s composition and the 2012 results, the cause either needs to be fully explained by the pollster, or we default to the assumption of a bias.
PPP’s Virginia poll, representing “one of the most important swing states in the country,” claims the following:
The Presidential race in Virginia is pretty tight. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 42-39, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head contest Clinton’s lead remains 3 points at 48/45. Clinton’s benefiting from Democrats in Virginia (83/8) being more unified around her than Republicans (76/5) are around Trump. But with independents Trump’s up 42/29.
When asked who they voted for in the last presidential election, 50% of respondents said Obama while just 41% said Romney, for a 9% Obama (read: liberal) edge. But Obama only won the state by 3.9% in 2012, meaning there appears to be at least a 5% liberal bias in the survey composition.
Remove that bias favoring the Democratic candidate, and Clinton’s lead disappears — leaving Trump likely leading by 2% or more in Virginia, depending on the potential presence of other compounding biases in the poll.
Then there is the latest edition of Reuter’s Polling Explorer from June 14, supposedly showing Clinton up by 8.5% over Trump, 39.1% to 30.6%. But of the 1,481 respondents, 642 (43.3%) are Democrats, 493 (33.3%) are Republicans, and 206 (13.9%) are Independents, with 138 (9.3%) “members of another party.” A 10% bias of Democrats over Republicans is 9% above the past two-month average of actual party affiliations. Remove that liberal bias, and now the race is a statistical tie.
Even worse, when asked who they voted for in 2012, 582 (39.3%) said Obama and just 355 (24.0%) said Romney. Thus, since the national results in 2012 only had Obama ahead of Romney in the popular vote by 3.9%, we conclude this suggests a 11.4% liberal bias in the survey composition. Based on this built-in bias, it appears Trump may actually be ahead of Clinton by nearly 3% at the national level once the bias is corrected for.
Finally, there is a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday — and conducted June 11-15 — that claims Clinton is up 9% over Trump in the head-to-head. No demographic data was released with the poll, which should raise a red flag. With what information we can tease out of the information provided, significant flaws are apparent.
Based on the data for “All Adult Americans” surveyed on issues such as the major problems facing the nation, as well as Obama’s approval rating and whether the nation is headed on the right track or not, it is clear that the ratio of Democrats:Republicans in the poll was a remarkably high 2:1! For interested readers, the general math behind such calculations is described in my previous article.
Moving on to the head-to-head match-up among registered voters, solving the available polling data with a 3-equation system solver reveals that the Trump versus Clinton poll appears to be comprised of about 46% Democrats and 36% Republicans, for a 10% Democrat bias. Yet again, remove the clear bias, and Clinton’s lead is gone.
This isn’t surprising, given the source. Serious concerns have been raised previously over the possible political motivations behind liberal bias in Ipsos polling.
Overall, in all polls seen to date at the state or national levels, systematic liberal bias is clear. In some cases, Democrats are being polled at apparent 2:1 ratios over Republicans, and in all situations, once the polling bias is removed, so is any Clinton lead.
Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/06/evidence_for_massive_liberal_bias_in_ipsos_polling_of_the_trump_vs_clinton_matchup.html#ixzz4Bq1vkTye
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@ bernard ross:
DUH!!!!!!!!!!!
LOL, Katz makes everyone look like an idiot with his simple accurate statement……all he has to add is: “DUH”
I am saving Katz’s brilliant gem for future reposting… its going to get lots of mileage…. as good as Trump one liners…. even better.
Trump should introduce a system where the Veep is in sync with the pres and can handle some of the work… it would be good to see a team effort where the veep is more than an understudy…… it would also be a more effective use of the salary.
first time I heard Sessions speak… I think he handled it very well and is very adept at turning hostile questions around and getting his point across. he will be a great asset for trump and will help him concentrate on the issues and the platforms that Trump represents with which the majority of americans agree. sessions will be the voice of reason and get folks focused on donalds platform rather than his personality.
next Veep?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p11WyjksUS0
@ bernard ross:
There you go thinking again.
honeybee Said:
I would have thought that such an “event” would indicate a positive perspective of the …….. relevant party.
@ bernard ross:
The Forward has a “real hard” on for Trump.
honeybee Said:
fool jews spreading lies about Trump
I have the same viewpoint of them as I do about the “sleazy and dishonest” media who also daily lie about Israel.
Theirs is not an opinion, it is a web of lies and hints of lies.
for example, no one has questioned whether the anti semitic campaign of so called trump supporters on the internet is not just another democrats false flag. They have invested in a twitter and internet campaign which could just have easily created a network of trolls to do this and blame Trump… as I daily see the lying tactics I would more beleive the anti semitic trolling campaign is a leftist muslim creation… just like hillary.
Jews who are lying about Trump, and saying he is racist and anti semitic are themselves the liars.. spreading libel just like they do about Israel.
I am sure that internet savvy people carrying on such a campaign must be well aware of Trumps orthodox daughter, son in law and grandchild… whom he always lauds. No neo nazi would support such a “jew lover”. Either jews maligning trump are liars or massively naive and ignorant.
We built that with our consumption engine plus we also built up their naval fleet threatening us in the south china sea. All thanks to establishment leadership of both parties who made decisions based on donor profits and not national security.
They will soon have a techno edge on everything and haven given up any of their greedy ways. without our techno edge we are dwarfed by china… 1.5 billion to 350 m all focused towards their advancement AND expansion.
@ bernard ross:
This will thrill you to the bone !!
http://forward.com/opinion/343001/the-forward-wont-publish-anything-about-donald-trump-for-24-hours/?utm_content=daily_Newsletter_MainList_Title_Position-1&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Daily%202016-06-20&utm_term=The%20Forward%20Today%20Monday-Friday
All this polling stuff is nonsense. The most important thing to know is that Obama has said that Trump will never be President of the United States.
All this polling stuff is nonsense. The most important thing to know is that Obama said that Trump will never be President of the United States.
bernard ross Said:
True dat. What about Jeb haahahahahahahah
donald says that if the gop doesnt help he will go on his own and fund his own campaign
Live.. Trump in Las Vegas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rZC3PLhbX4
honeybee Said:
thats a long shot that even the establishment frantic gop is unlikely to take… however… I think that both ryan and romney realize that if trump wins the election that they will never have a chance again at the WH because they wont get to run in 20 and then there will be at least another 8-12 years before they have another chance. For them it is either ’20 or never… so it is most important to them that Trump loses the election even if he wins the gop nomination.
there is no logical reason for anyone to vote ryan as president even if he was almost the last gop on earth… and mittens….fugeddaboutit.
bernard ross Said:
Ryan wants to nominated . The last minute replacement for Trump.
bernard ross Said:
Some people just plain draw lightnin !!!!!
@ Bear Klein:
what I am saying is that ryan is threatening Trump with a suit and Trump is not even president yet whereas he has brought no suit against obama for all his crimes and scandals. Ryan is a fraud just trying to kill trumps election so that he can run in 20. If Trump wins bot ryan and romney have no chance in 20 and then the WH will pass to dems…. leaving them in the cold forever… they are frantic to have trump lose… if not the convention then the election… which will enable them to say trump lost its now my turn. If the fraud seeks to file suits he should start with president hussein.
Can not sue him until he is President and enacts the bill which he would not probably in reality.
Anyway unlikely in all cases as him becoming President is at about 33% odds I am told.
We will find out in a few months.
If we see Hillary in a Federal Pen where she belongs maybe it will President Trump or will it be President Sanders?
@ Bear Klein:
where is the suit of obama which he has already promised Trump for banning muslims. Ryan is a BS artist who talks but then rubber stamps obama so long as he can get his donors TPP. Where is the suit?
Paul Ryan
Our immigration system is broken, and the evidence is overwhelming. Eleven million undocumented immigrants are living in the United States. Because they lack legal status, they are outside the scope of the law. We don’t know who they are or in what activities they are involved. We encourage people to break the law and punish those who follow it. Immigrants who attempt to come to this country by legal means find themselves wrapped up in endless paperwork and bureaucracy. The current backlog for family-sponsored visas is so vast that it could take up to 11.5 years for the visa to be processed. – See more at: http://paulryan.house.gov/issues/issue/?IssueID=9970#sthash.agapu2vC.dpuf
yamit82 Said:
already?
@ Bear Klein:
notice that the GOP establishment, the ryan and romneys are nowhere to be found in this catastrophe
Ryan said today that he would sue trump if he effected a ban on muslims but I notice he has not sued obama on all his crimes and scandals. Obama should be impeached for endangering the nation but ryan thinks its not as important as the catastrophe of trump banning muslims… which happens to be my top priority.
Ted comment to Bernard botted pls retrieve and post.
@ Bear Klein:
the problem I have with this whole conversation is that you were doing the same exact thing prior to trumps gop win… and you are back doing it again. All these polls and politicians showing he cant win and then he wins… all the polls showing hilary trounces him and then suddenly the polls show him pull even. which polls should we take seriously, if any? A barrage of kabuki.
@ Bear Klein:
what I notice is that most of what trumps top platforms are do not appear in your list, and they are my priorities too
1- muslim immigration and surveillance of mosques and muslims
2- shipping jobs to china, tpp, fair trade, etc
3- firing american workers and forcing them to train foreigners; HB1 visa fraud
4-illegal immigration for corporate cheap labor and demo votes.
None of these are GOP or conservative agenda… they support firing americans, shipping out jobs, cheap illegal immigration, etc.
Bear Klein Said:
he was one hundred percent correct that the judge was biased and racist and corrupt. as a member of la raza he is proven biased and racist and for failing to disclose that fact he is corrupt. What is important is not how trump sounds but the substance of what he says. since then I have also posted an article on that corrupt mexican judge who was partying with the opposition lawyers and afterwards denied trumps motions. the last people i want running anything are the superficial trivial folks who talk about how someone sounds as opposed to facts and actions. So far I see nothing that Donald has said which has not been substantially correct.. but what I do see is a hysterical and despicable demonization campaign which consistently spread lies about him. That is what we should be really worried about: how all the media, corrupt pols, can be activated to demonize in unison just like the twittered arab spring. It is orchestrated fiction.
here is another example of the demonization which is orchestrated and intentional in its capacity for lies
If donald was a muslim all the liars would already be dead.
@ bernard ross:
Ross said:
So why would conservatives or GOP members vote for him except to keep Hillary out.
Actually on taxes he is for lowering business taxes (GOP position). On domestic security he is very similar to most GOP positions. On foreign policy he has many things much closer to standard GOP positions. Like a strong American military which the GOP supports.
Many in the GOP support Israel and so does Trump.
So there are things they support him on. Most of the GOP and conservatives are free trade advocates and Trump is not. Most conservatives are for small government and Trump is for reforming government but does seem like he is really for a small government. Who knows he still does not have many policy positions clarified just some statements which can changed during the course of the election (not inspiring)!
When he sounds like a racist on the Mexican judge he makes people cringe. He could have shown the judges apparent bias without crudely saying he is a MEXICAN. Not being nuanced has some of his followers in his corner. However doubling down on his racist comment has GOP politicians running for the hills. Yes his hard core followers will find a way to back him and say he was right. They will say he is not politically correct. You can avoid trying to be PC and not sound like a racist with a little articulation.
However it was a losing proposition to talk about his personal legal case and sound like a racist and keep it up for a week. It is showing in recent polls.
Bear Klein Said:
there was a time when you were supporting the canard that he was neutral on the jews and referring to anti semites who supported Trump. I do not believe you feel that way now.
Bear Klein Said:
I dont know what inspires you, but i am not usually inspired by “inspirational speech”. I am not inspired by Trump, my desire for a trump win is based on the very specific platforms he has enunciated with which I agree… and that not one single other candidate is supporting those platforms. I see everyone else as a total disaster and him as a person whose starting point at least agrees with me in identifying the problems AND their priority… especially the muslim issue. Inspiration is not what I seek from an employee, which is what the president is supposed to be. I am not looking for an inspirational leader, for me that is always the bullshiite that covers up their lies and incompetency. I dont mind his speech if he does what hes says on specific issues.
Bear Klein Said:
barry goldwater was at the far right of the conservative spectrum and appealed to a fringe crowd… Trump, in spite of all the hysterical media lies, is in the middle of the average american who can see there are problems and everyone is lying to them. Trump is neither a democrat or republican, a conservative or liberal, not an ideologue… he is platform driven. The reason that trump is slumping is because of the media and gop campaign to destroy his candidacy… nothing is wrong with his platforms…there was a big lie about him being a racist with the corrupt la raza judge… but everyday that lie is more exposed but folks like ryan and romney jumped on the lie.
Bear Klein Said:
yeh, they want hillary to win, or anyone but trump. I understand their position because nothing in trumps agenda is GOP or conservative.
Ross I do not think Trump is an anti-Semite. I think you are implying I am saying that or thinking it. If correct your memory is short and in error as I have told you explicitly before that I do not think that is the case. I still prefer Trump win.
I am reading polls and analyzing and listening to him and to me he is not an inspiration. You obviously believe or think differently. I have no objection to you thinking and believing differently. Maybe you think he will be on Mount Rushmore someday. So be it. If yes and makes America Great Again who knows!!
To me he looks Barry Goldwater II and will not be a winner but a big time looser. I hope I am wrong as I do not want Hillary to be President.
There is always Gary Johnson at about 10 points in some polls. Some GOP people are voting for him as he is for small government.
Bear Klein Said:
trump should be inspiring confidence in all jews who are loyal to Israel….. if not it is the jews fault to miss their opportunity.
Those Jews that have been pushing the lie of his anti semitism and racism are dangerous to all Jews. Remember later that I warned you of that outcome.
@ Bear Klein:
didnt seem excellent to me… just a lot of numbers, real or imagined, which give the basis for the conclusions.
I remember the same sort of noise and static when trump ran for the primary… terrible prognoses, etc etc
the fact that all of a sudden clinton and trump were tied a while ago after months of hearing the opposite should raise your suspicions: either the polls are suspect or they are unreliable over a length of time.
this is the best answer, which is the same thing I said when months ago when the same polls were issued before trump pulled even:
watsa46 Said:
even if the polls were real, which i doubt considering the enormous hype against donald across all media, they are merely a slice of time in the moment and can change in a couple of weeks.
I expect that Trump will start to expose hillary’s very serious scandals… and if smart he would provoke a movement to pressure an indictment of hillary without attaching his name to it.
the main reason for trumps slump is the cabal of dirty corrupt gop establishment stooges like ryan and romney whose only path to a nomination in 20 is for trump to lose this election to the dems. By reneging on their pledges to support the nominee they have created a question mark with the undecided… gop voters would be smart to contact their local gop reps and tell them that if they dont support trump seriously now they will vote against them locally. the gop turned out to be the biggest crooks, as it is now there is no gop I would vote for other than trump.
Still 155 days before E day.
Excellent article by conservative Republican Pollster Rasumussen.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
Bear Klein Said:
and yet he took the gop primaries against all odds with the gop establishment still trying to destroy him.
I dont put as much stock in polls as you do. there was not reason for the downtick on trump… I know that politicians and media are bought for th epurposes of manipulating the public… when I see things that go against how reality appears to me… I become suspicious. I am suspicious of these polls because at the same time there is an enormous campaign to destroy Trump, orchestrated, across all media, MSM, twitter, reddit, facebook, etc etc. My gut tells me that the hysteria is so big that it likely extends to the bought polls. Polls are often released to the lemmings who like to vote for perceived winners. Later on, if their “predictions” are not materializing they pretend that there is a sudden new poll whereby everything has turned around.
If Trump was doing so badly then why all the hysteria to prevent trump supporters from posting. The normal reaction to a loser is to ignore him, but ALL the forces are out trying to destroy Trump.
I am sorry that Jews are partaking in this lie that he is an anti semite, by doing so they will attract anti semitism to themselves.
My first candidate was always anyone but Hillary or Bernie, It still is. That said Trump is not inspiring confidence accept for the True hard core Trump believers.
Once Trump entered the race in actuality in was ahead in the polls. Prior to him entering the race, the showed polls Jeb Bush ahead. So the polls were accurate.
As I said, the state polls are true indicators (in mass) of who will win the race. There are not enough of these yet. That said the earlier indicators are not good for Trump and going backwards. Trends of earlier USA wide polling are going in the wrong direction for Trump.
Rasumussen the GOP pollster a month ago had Hillary up only one and now she is up 5. This is the closest he is in any poll. The poll average and listing is shown below. Clinton on the average is up almost 6 points.
RCP Average 5/24 – 6/15 — — 44.1 38.3 Clinton +5.8
CBS News 6/9 – 6/13 1048 RV 4.0 43 37 Clinton +6
Rasmussen Reports 6/14 – 6/15 1000 LV 3.0 44 39 Clinton +5
Reuters/Ipsos 6/11 – 6/15 1323 RV 2.8 41 32 Clinton +9
Bloomberg* 6/10 – 6/13 750 LV 3.6 49 37 Clinton +12
FOX News 6/5 – 6/8 1004 RV 3.0 42 39 Clinton +3
Economist/YouGov 6/2 – 6/5 1636 RV 3.6 44 41 Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP 5/31 – 6/5 850 RV 3.3 45 40 Clinton +5
Quinnipiac 5/24 – 5/30 1561 RV 2.5 45 41 Clinton +4
corrupt mexican la raza judge…. Trump right again… GOP establishment and dems lied again.
Bear Klein Said:
NO, republican establishment is fighting him and his platform… they disagree with his platform and are trying to destroy him. Ryan and romney want to run in 20 and that wont happen unless they make trump lose. Plus their GOP stands for everthing opposite to trump.
Bear Klein Said:
remember you were doing the same in the primary and at one point trump moved ahead of hillary? None of the polls predicted Trumps win before the convention.
many jews are pushing the canard that trump is anti semitic and racist, this is a mistake…. in the end the jews will be blamed for the flood of muslim and illegal immigrants. As so many Jews are in support of muslim jew killers we should expect a wave of anti semitism. I have noticed that the anti trump, pro muslim censorship on reddit and facebook are run by Jews. Jews will be seen to be anti american, pro muslim, pro immigration, pro flooding, pro everything bad to the majority of americans. I predict this MO will be a major mistake. The same is happening in europe, jews are being identified with promoting and defending the flood of muslims invading europe…. a big mistake. this is increasing the same type and intensity of hatred for Jews which prededed the shoah… jews need to wake up, fast.
Israelis should be more than aware of the consistent manipulation of the major MSM to defame and deleigitimize Israel. Polls are simply another organ of propaganda bought and paid for. The same poll hysteria was whipped up when Trump started doing well in the GOP primary..the polls adjust themselves to reality at the end of the day talking about sudden massive shifts from the poll they gave the week before. However, there is no doubt that ryan, romney and the gop establishment are out to destroy trump. Hillary and the gop establishment are on the same page.
Even Rasmussen a Republican pollster has Trump 5 points behind. He always counts more Republicans in his polls than other pollsters.
State polls matter there are not enough to know. The negatives are huge for Trump. Only Obama and Lynch not indicting Hillary will allow Trump to have a chance. He is fighting Republicans and going into a hole that will hard to recover from.
At this point he will be Barry Goldwater – number 1 in losing massively!
Hopefully the Senate and House do not go Democrat also. Senate could easily. House not so likely.