Peloni: Another earth shaking move for Trump. The big winner by design will of course be the US, while the big loser, again by design, will be China. Additionally, Europe will stand on both sides of this equation. Indeed, Europe will significantly benefit from becoming self reliant as well as significantly more independent should they play this right and accept the reality in which they stand. And yet, accepting this reality as being really real will come at a significant cost, both to the respective European nations’ publics, as well as to the insanely Leftist leadership which have for too long placed their own interests over that of their respective nations. Of course, it remains to be seen how the individual European nations will react, but their main hobby horse, USAID, has forever left the stable, leaving them with only hard choices among hard facts if they intend to continue their radical plan to continue this war further. It is time for the war parties which have been propped up by the US all across Europe to finally be replaced, and for Europe to find some form of security arrangement which respects and engages with Russia, rather than isolating and marginalizing them. But this will be a very difficult undertaking, for Europe, for Russia, and for China, but for the US, it will be quite liberating while still being quite empowering.
No NATO Membership for Ukraine, No US Troops
1. Ukraine’s membership in NATO is off the table. Ukraine won’t be invited to join NATO.
2. The US will not send any troops to Ukraine for any reason, including peacekeeping.
3. The US will no longer supply or pay for weapons and support for Ukraine. It will be up to the European NATO members to provide support to Ukraine.
4. While the US supports NATO, American participation has to be fair and equitable, meaning that NATO members will have to significantly increase their contributions.
5. Ukraine will not be able to go back to the borders it had before 2014, meaning that the US expects important territorial concessions from Ukraine.
President Trump, meanwhile, held an hour and a half phone meeting with Russian President Putin. The key takeaway is that Putin said he is willing to start negotiations with the United States on Ukraine and other security issues.
The Trump-Putin conversation covered many topics, for example security issues, energy, artificial intelligence, “the power of the dollar” and “various other subjects.”
Following the call, Trump apparently placed a call “to inform” Ukrainian President Zelensky of his conversation with Putin. He also immediately set up his negotiating team. He designated Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, to lead the negotiations.
Significantly, the list of participants did not include retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg. Kellogg had been openly flogging the idea of significantly increasing sanctions on Russia as a way to get concessions on Ukraine. As he put it, on a scale of 1 to 10, current sanctions on Russia are only a 3. He proposed raising them far higher (assuming this could be done). These comments directly undermined Trump’s approach to Putin and Russia, and appear to have been Kellogg’s idea (among others) to make sure the Ukraine war continued. Whether Kellogg will again appear as a player in Ukraine remains to be seen.
It will take time for Europe’s pro-war leaders, along with the EU, to contemplate the future, now that the rug has pretty well been pulled out from under their feet.
The Europeans have neither the weapons, the troops nor the money to keep the war going in Ukraine. Nor will they get much support for continuing the war if the United States won’t play in the game. In fact, should Europe want to continue on its own, without the United States, they risk the future of the NATO alliance.
Many of the leaders in Europe are in trouble domestically. Germany, France, Poland and even Romania where Presidential elections were cancelled to prevent the leading opposition candidate from being elected, are examples of the growing instability in the European leadership class. Revelations about US and EU interference in the electoral process in Georgia, Serbia and Slovakia, perhaps also Moldova, emphasize the squalid nature of current-day politics in Europe.
The Trump administration is liquidating USAID, which has been acting as a sort of CIA-front in many of the above countries, including Ukraine. With that source of money and support cut off, the EU is being handed a serious problem that goes well beyond finance: the phony argument that the EU (and with it, NATO) is upholding democracy is now exposed. The loss of legitimacy is a real threat to the ruling elites.
Trump has an important geopolitical perspective. It runs something like this: European security is important but is not really threatened by Russia. The US faces a resurgent China that has a (largely Western-supplied) very modern industrial base, a massive workforce, and an increasingly well-equipped and powerful military. From Trump’s point of view, he needs a more friendly Russia that can help balance global power relationships. To get from there to here, he needs to find ways to redefine the US-Russia relationship which is in deep disarray and infused with mutual hostility. In his 90 minute conversation with Putin, Trump was poking at economic and technology capabilities that could, in future, provide a basis for improving relations.
No one can say right now whether a deal can be found for Ukraine, but there is reason to be more optimistic that the two sides can work something out.
We will need to see if the Europeans push back and try to sabotage a deal on Ukraine. The reality is Europe has little it can do if Putin and Trump agree on a deal.
Attempting respect !
I remember a family i was once part of !
Sitting at smaller tables with several cousins, waiting to get old
enough to sit at the big table with GranMom/GranPop and aunts & uncles !
I weep for Gran&Gramps now because 5 generations later
NONE OF THE ORIGINALS REMAIN AND
NONE OF THE FAMILY EVEN KNOWS THE OTHERS !
SOUNDS LIKE THE WHOLE EFFEN WORLD !
Now, instead of warlike tribes, we are
warlike natioins !
Who the hell are we ?
Eddie…..aka…..tzvi
Any country in the world which trusts the US or Anglos in general after the last 3-4 years (at least) deserves what it gets.
@dreuveni
This is the practical approach of serious dialogue which must be undertaken, but to be honest, I think Europe is a long way, and at least one or two election cycles from accepting their new reality.
Interesting, the lack of sensible outreach to Russia in the past has left Europe somewhat similar to the landed gentry who were forced to deal with the reality that their long held family plots would either turn a profit to pay for newly created taxes leveraged on them over a century ago, or their family plots would be seized and sold against their will.
Indeed, having been doubly betrayed by the US by being lured into this gambit against Russia, for which the Europeans were initially only half enamored with doing, they are now left with a highly contentious position with Russia, having to pay for increased energy costs with a de-industrializing economy. In fact, Europe has many many problems, many originating in the US, but all of which will be solved, one way or the other in Europe, as they face the reality that business as usual is no longer available, and there will be a long hard crushing move towards dealing with the consequences of their past choices as if there is no safety net to soften their fall, much as was true for the land poor landed gentry of a century ago.
We may need to rethink this problem. For example, without outside aid, like USAID, Ukraine is bankrupt and in this condition, cannot even have its candidacy for the EU considered unless all the woke European politicians fall over and betray their own constituents.
Thinking a little outside the box, how about inviting Russia to become a member state of the EU? They are much closer than Turkey in terms of compatibility to the rest of Europe.
The next interesting step would be to annull the “developing country” status of both China and India. Both of them are high on the list of GDP generating countries and have no need for any development benefits. They should actually be providing development benefits to other needy countries like the USA or France, Germany or the UK, and while most countries are fighting to get Greta Thunberg’s scare tactics acted on, China and India couldn’t care less about the climate scam except to take advantage of our susceptibility.
I speak as an American, so I have a definite bias; but Hegseth’s proposals (backed by President Trump) seem balanced and reasonable. What seems to be put forward is:
1. Ukraine is viewed as an ally (non-NATO) of the US and Europe. Ammunition and supplies will continue to flow to Ukraine, as well as European troops.
2. The Ukrainian conflict must be viewed by the Europeans, as only one front in an overall defense posture that includes the “Indo-Pacific”. The main focus of the US is toward the latter, and Europe’s sharp focus must be on the former.
3. Russia’s role in this, is up to the Russians.
4. Effectively, a new “Cold War” is acknowledged. The European countries in NATO realize that their greatest potential threat comes from Russia; and they must ramp up their defense expenditures to reflect this. The US will provide a nuclear umbrella, and pressure Russia by lowering oil prices.
https://www.newsweek.com/nato-ally-warns-russia-launching-large-scale-war-europe-2029855