Erdogan hops on the Russian wagon

By Prof. Eyal Zisser, ISRAEL HAYOM

The assassination of the Russian ambassador in Ankara, horrifying as it was, has sparked concerns over the possible consequences for regional stability.

Some experts warned of an escalation in hostilities and deterioration of Russian-Turkish relations, even to the point of war between the two, citing the example of the assassination of Austro-Hungarian Royal Prince Ferdinand in June 1914 in Sarajevo, which led to World War I.

The sense of upheaval over the Russian ambassador’s murder, however, appears to have mostly stemmed from the fact that it was broadcast live, as if it were a reality TV show.

In reality, the murder has not brought the Russians and Turks to the brink of war; it has instead pushed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan further into the arms of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The murder provided the backdrop and also the alibi for Tuesday’s meeting in Moscow between the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey. The meeting signaled the dawn of a new regional alliance taking shape; or more specifically the addition of Turkey to the Russian-Iranian axis, which has sought for some time to establish its dominance in the region.

About a year ago, following a lengthy hiatus, Russia returned to the Middle East stage. It sent an armed force to Syria to fight alongside Syrian President Bashar Assad, and has since maintained a massive military presence in the country. This deployment even includes naval and air bases, indicating that the Russians intend to stay for a while.

Russia’s regional encore has been facilitated by Iranian cooperation, in exchange for substantial profits. Thus in Syria the Russians are bombing targets from the sky and the Iranians are fighting on the ground. It is safe to assume that this partnership between Moscow and Tehran, which also includes Hezbollah, is predicated on an agreement to partition Syria and essentially the entire Middle East — Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon — into spheres of Russian and Iranian influence.

For the past year, Turkey has been on the opposite side of this equation, trying with all its might to counter Iran’s growing regional influence and sabotage Russia’s efforts in Syria. However, a shift has occurred in Turkey in recent months, and in light of the new regional reality Erdogan is doing what it takes to preserve not only his own power but Turkey’s status.

At the base of the shift in Turkey’s position is the recognition of Russian military might and ability to inflict damage, but also the realization that Washington has abandoned the region and its friends there. The Turks are also realistic enough to understand that under the present circumstances their proxies in Syria, the rebels fighting Assad, have only a slim chance of emerging victorious. Yet aside from all this, Turkey views the Kurds as the real danger. Thus latching onto Moscow and moving against the Kurds, who are supported by Washington, is a prudent and necessary step.

We can assume that in return for its willingness to help stabilize the situation in Syria, Turkey’s proxies — fighting in northern Syria, in the Idlib province and north of Aleppo — will receive immunity that will allow them to stay in control there and focus primarily on fighting with the Turks against the Kurds, who are seeking to establish their own autonomy in those areas.

How ironic that Assad was not even invited to the meeting in Moscow about Syria’s future. This sufficiently indicates what the Russians truly think of him, and how firmly the Syrian president is stuck in their back pockets. It is also symbolic that Washington was not invited to the meeting, as if it has nothing to do with the situation is Syria and as if its opinions do not really matter either.

Turkey’s attachment to Russia strengthens Moscow, which can now maneuver as it pleases between Ankara and Tehran, and via a policy of “divide and conquer” advance its interests at the expense of both. Truth be told, like many understandings, agreements and alliances, this is a temporary alliance of interests that does little to assuage the suspicions and mistrust prevalent between the sides. Again we see, however, that only Putin, in a surprise move under the half-asleep Americans, has proved capable of bringing Ankara and Tehran together, with Moscow firmly in the middle.