There are no polls published in the 72 hours before the election, and the next polls will be exit polls published after the polls close on Tuesday.
By ELIAV BREUER, JPOST 30.10.22
WORKERS PREPARE ballot boxes for the upcoming election at the Central Elections Committee warehouse in Shoham before shipment to polling stations, earlier this month. (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
Israel is now in the “twilight zone,” the 72 hours leading up to Election Day, during which Israeli law prohibits the publishing of polls. The next time Israelis will encounter poll results will be exit polls, after the balloting closes on Tuesday at 10 p.m.
Past elections have shown important momentum swings in these last hours, and this election might be no different.
In the last polls before the March 2021 election, for example, Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party was barely expected to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold. The party picked up tens of thousands of votes in the ensuing 72 hours and ended up as the fourth-largest party, with eight seats.
Are any such surprises in store this time around? If so, what could they be?
First, there is the question of Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked’s Bayit Yehudi Party.
A source from Shaked’s party on Sunday said its internal polls showed it was gaining with each passing day. The party’s internal polls purposely oversampled the demographic of religious Zionists aged 65 and over, which it was felt was underrepresented in the standard polls and included larger than average support for Bayit Yehudi, the source said.
Furthermore, it was important to note that among undecided voters, there were a high number of religious-Zionist former Yamina voters, he said. According to a poll by KAN News, there were enough votes in that group to push Bayit Yehudi over the electoral threshold, the source said.
A different internal poll last week showed that if the 3.25% threshold were not a factor, the party would receive five seats. Many potential Bayit Yehudi voters fear that their vote will be wasted if the party does not end up passing the threshold, as the latest polls predicted.
While Shaked could end up wasting tens of thousands of right-wing votes, her party also has the potential to fly by the electoral threshold and complete a coalition for opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, chairman of the Likud.
Voters in the Arab sector
Another trend that began to pick up speed before the polls went dark was a rise in voting percentages in the Arab-Israeli sector. In 2020, a record high of 64.8% of Israel’s Arab citizens participated in the election, giving what was then the undivided Joint List a record 15 seats.
The percentage plummeted in the 2021 election to 44.6% and a combined 10 seats between two parties. This time around, there are three Arab parties in the running – Hadash-Ta’al, Ra’am (United Arab List) and Balad. While just weeks ago, polls showed that the expected voting percentage would barely reach 40%, expectations are now closer to 50%.
If those numbers reach 55%, all three parties could pass the electoral threshold and reach a combined 12 seats. This could potentially swing the election and bring the Right bloc back under the 61-seat mark.
The weather
A third element that could affect the election come Tuesday is the weather.
Rain is expected from the North all the way to the northern Negev, and historically, the worse the weather is, the lower the voting percentage. The weather’s effect is complex, however, as rainy weather decreases voter turnout. Pleasant weather, however, also draws voters away from polling stations as people head outdoors or to the shore, according to a 2020 report by the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS).
A fun fact from the IMS report: Elections for the first Knesset took place on a wintry, rainy day in January 1949, and voter turnout was 87% – a record that has yet to be broken. In contrast, the elections for the second Knesset took place on an average summer day in July 1951, and voter turnout was 75% – the lowest until the election of 2000.
Rain in Israel is usually sporadic, and ballot booths are open for 15 hours, from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. Even if the rain leads to a slightly smaller voter turnout, it presumably would affect both sides equally. Still, the weather is a factor that might have a small effect on the eventual turnout – and in such a tight race, even small changes can make a difference.
Hi, Peloni. So far, Brazil 2022 looks sickeningly like US 2020
I already voted and I voted a split ticket. I support the Affordable Care Act and the Tenants rights bill of 2021, and student loan forgiveness, see, and don’t think they go far enough, even if the Dems are nuts and worse on everything else, particularly Israel.
But, I voted Republican for US Senate and NY State Attorney General.
There were only 2 candidates for US House of Representatives, the incumbent Dem and Working Families Party. I always used to vote Working Families Party rather than Dem or the Dem candidate on the Working Familes Part Line – like my mother – for state and city-wide office until they began fielding pro-BDS candidates.
Actually I voted Republican for mayor this last time because both candidates had the same position on re-funding the police but Sliwa wanted to abolish kill shelters and enact other compassionate animal-welfare measures.
Early voting in New York is from Saturday, Oct. 29 to Nov. 6 in 2022. I voted the first day. I was the only voter in this huge place and got treated like royalty. 😀
I already voted and I voted a split ticket. I support the Affordable Care Act and the Tenants rights bill of 2021, and student loan forgiveness, see, and don’t think they go far enough, even if the Dems are nuts and worse on everything else, particularly Israel. But, I voted Republican for US Senate and NY State Attorney General. There were only 2 candidates for US House of Representatives, the incumbent Dem and Working Families Party. I always used to vote Working Families Party rather than Dem or the Dem candidate on the Working Familes Part Line – like my mother – for state and city-wide office until they began fielding pro-BDS candidates. Actually I voted Republican for mayor this last time because both candidates had the same position on re-funding the police and I already voted and I voted a split ticket. I support the Affordable Care Act and the Tenants rights bill of 2021, and student loan forgiveness, see, and don’t think they go far enough, even if the Dems are nuts and worse on everything else, particularly Israel. But, I voted Republican for US Senate and NY State Attorney General. There were only 2 candidates for US House of Representatives, the incumbent Dem and Working Families Party. I always used to vote Working Families Party rather than Dem or the Dem candidate on the Working Familes Part Line – like my mother – for state and city-wide office until they began fielding pro-BDS candidates. 😀
I already voted and I voted a split ticket. I support the Affordable Care Act and the Tenants rights bill of 2021, and student loan forgiveness, see, and don’t think they go far enough, even if the Dems are nuts and worse on everything else, particularly Israel. But, I voted Republican for US Senate and NY State Attorney General. There were only 2 candidates for US House of Representatives, the incumbent Dem and Working Families Party. I always used to vote Working Families Party rather than Dem or the Dem candidate on the Working Familes Part Line – like my mother – for state and city-wide office until they began fielding pro-BDS candidates. Actually I voted Republican for mayor this last time because both candidates had the same position on re-funding the police and I already voted and I voted a split ticket. I support the Affordable Care Act and the Tenants rights bill of 2021, and student loan forgiveness, see, and don’t think they go far enough, even if the Dems are nuts and worse on everything else, particularly Israel. But, I voted Republican for US Senate and NY State Attorney General. There were only 2 candidates for US House of Representatives, the incumbent Dem and Working Families Party. I always used to vote Working Families Party rather than Dem or the Dem candidate on the Working Familes Part Line – like my mother – for state and city-wide office until they began fielding pro-BDS candidates. Actually I voted Republican for mayor this last time because both candidates had conservative positions on crime and seemed liberal on tenants rights but Sliwa was more liberal on animal rights. Early voting began Oct. 29 and goes until Nov. 6. I was the only voter in this huge place and got treated like royalty. 😀
I already voted and I voted a split ticket. I support the Affordable Care Act and the Tenants rights bill of 2021, and student loan forgiveness, see, and don’t think they go far enough, even if the Dems are nuts and worse on everything else. But, I voted Republican for US Senate and NY State Attorney General. Early voting began Oct. 29 and goes until Nov. 6. I was the only voter in this huge place and got treated like royalty. 😀
If I could vote, I would vote Religious Zionism because it’s about Jewish physical survival, but if it were just about bread and butter issues, I’d vote Labor, after looking at all the platforms. That’s the same conundrum I have with voting here. Didn’t Likud support more liberal welfare state policies before Netanyahu? I know the tenants rights champion in the ’70s in New York was Republican Senator Jacob Javits. Lots of poor Jews, you know.
I’m surprised Labor is doing so poorly among Jews compared to Yesh Atid which represents the worst of both worlds as far as I can see.
“Israel Elections: Which parties are running, what are their policies? “Excellent breakdown. Best I’ve seen.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-720785
@Michael
I saw this developing yesterday, but I don’t believe the report of a few police joining the protests really means nothing, at this point at least. Some police are indeed joining the protests, but some are trying to breakup the protests and lift at least a few of the over 300 blockades that have spontaneously sprung up around the country. The corrupt courts have called for the protests to end, and instead the protests have grown larger. The army has yet to act and this will be a pivotal point in the fate of the Brazil. Meanwhile, there are no less than three audits now underway, one from the US, one from Russia and one from Brazil. Bolsonaro who has not conceded the election is scheduled to speak at 5pm today, and Steve Bannon, who is a friend of Bolsonaro’s has confirmed this. We will know more then, but in truth, this is very much up in the air at present as there are still too many moving parts yet to take a position, particularly the army.
HAPPENING NOW: Things are developing quickly in Brazil, and not in a good way after the election that was STOLEN from Bolsonaro.
— https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1587255260715835392.html
Wait, did they change it? I though everybody got the day off. That was one of the two main reasons somebody here said Israelis objected to frequent elections, the other one being that it cost the government money, both supposedly hurting the economy, which seemed like weak reasons to me but now I Iearn it’s the same as here? I wish we had frequent elections, makes for more accountability, besides voting is fun; gives me the illusion my opinion matters. The American founding fathers debated the pros and cons of frequent elections.
from “Moon Over Parador” (1988)
https://youtu.be/e7E9SS-X4YY
If the elections are fair and legitimate, the Democrat Party is going to suffer the biggest losses in any election in U.S. history. But we know the Democrats will be using a wide variety of methods of fraud and cheating, which they used not only in 2020, but have been using for decades. I am by no means confident that the Left will not steal these elections and finish the job they have started of destroying this nation.