Egypt and the Middle East: Romanticism Meets Reality

By Barry Rubin

The projected million-women march turned out just 400 and they were harassed and in some cases attacked. Meanwhile, thousands of Muslims and Christians demonstrated and clashed in part due to the burning of a Christian church by Muslims. The new governmental team has been outspokenly anti-Israel–and that doesn’t mean criticism but real hostility.

Crime has reportedly zoomed upward. including armed robberies, arson and street battles between rival criminal gangs over territory. One innovation has been for gangs to stop cars, partly by throwing eggs on the windshield so the driver can’t see, then demand that the driver sign a bill of sale to them for the automobile and hand it over, or else.

All revolutions produce some anarchy. But the divisions between Christians and Muslims, (massive numbers of) Islamists and (tiny numbers of) secularist, treatment of women, and other issues have a structural component that just isn’t going to go away easily. The same applies to the underlying hostility toward Israel, the United States, and the West in general.

Meanwhile, the military junta gave a warm welcome to Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who has been credibly accused of mass murder. In Tunisia, protest demonstrations have been broken up by the military government there. Muammar al-Qadhafi may well fall in Libya but he’s still holding out. In Pakistan, the government’s only Christian cabinet minister was assassinated rather obviously because of his religion and none of his colleagues would dare defend him publicly.

The idea that everything has changed in the Middle East from the winter of dictatorship and extremism into a springtime for democracy is–unfortunately–likely to turn out to be wrong.

Some of those many people with a limited sense of history has compared the events i n the Middle East to 1848 in Europe. Basically, all of the revolutions of that year failed. In France, where the uprising succeeded, within three years Napoleon III had become dictator, ruled the country for 23 years, and led it into a disastrous military defeat.

The journalistic romanticizers of the Arab transformation–ignoring that meanwhile Lebanon was being transformed inthe exact opposite direction–will no doubt soon be scratching their heads wondering how things that seemed so terrific (to their superficial view) quickly turned tragic.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/03/world/asia/03pakistan.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=print

March 9, 2011 | 11 Comments »

Leave a Reply

11 Comments / 11 Comments

  1. It is extremely rare for a site to come up with a flag. And I mean absolutely microscopic percentages of sites get tagged despite my visiting tons of sometimes rather questionable pages from all walks of life.

    So while it might very well be a popular page, something is going on with the site (or at least that particular page) and I don’t know what else to tell you.

    I don’t use Trend but I did run their on-line HouseCall,and three other premium anti virus scans and came up with zip so as I assumd you are getting false positives. send the URL’s to trend for analysis or have a techie check your software you might have a Trojan.

    Despite your strange arrogant attitude, this only strengthens my initial post on the topic. If they were intending to cancel all involvement with Israel because they hate Jews, why exactly would they approach Israel about filling their current gas shortage at an extreme increased monetary cost? The answer is – they wouldn’t. And it strengthens the position that there are other (non anti-Semitic) reasons they aren’t supplying the gas at this time – they are in a shortage crisis and cant even fill their own need first.

    I am not privy to the conditions of the contract but I am sure there are provisions for non compliance including specified penalty clauses. Israel doesn’t need Egyptian gas we already have enough supply for our current needs from the field off the coast of Ashdod. The purchase from Egypt was political and I think some Israeli graft by the minister who pushed through the deal. Israel was forced by America a few years back to terminate an agreement for AWACS to China. Israel lost a potential 6 billion in sales to China, repaid 400 million advance payment from China and paid a penalty of 700 million dollars to China.

    A deal is a deal and a contract is a contract. There are legal and friendly ways such problems could have been resolved. My point is the sudden and arbitrariness in the way Egypt ducked out of their obligations. I was always against doing any business with them. Screw Jordan as well.

  2. ANY BODY WHO THINK THE ARABS GOING TO CHANGE OVER NIGHT IS A FOOL YOU GOT TO REMBER ISLAM IS A CULTURE OF DEATH

  3. Something is very messed up with your TM AV or you’ve set the security level to “PARANOID”. Links to Elder of Ziyon’s blog are standard fare all over the blogosphere

    It is extremely rare for a site to come up with a flag. And I mean absolutely microscopic percentages of sites get tagged despite my visiting tons of sometimes rather questionable pages from all walks of life.

    So while it might very well be a popular page, something is going on with the site (or at least that particular page) and I don’t know what else to tell you.

  4. JoeyO says:
    March 10, 2011 at 9:20 pm

    They all come up with a TrendMicro flag stating:

    Something is very messed up with your TM AV or you’ve set the security level to “PARANOID”. Links to Elder of Ziyon’s blog are standard fare all over the blogosphere.

  5. Since you do not name those sites with viruses, I must conclude that you wish others who read my comments to catch infections or you are just full of FALSE POSITIVES

    The links are the ones titled:
    Egypt’s hate for Israel is hurting – Jordan
    However, Elaraby wrote an article in Egypt’s Shorouk News about this topic a couple of hours later:
    Guess whose spies use fake passports?

    They all come up with a TrendMicro flag stating:

    The website you wanted to see might transmit malicious software to your computer, or has done that before to someone else. It may also show signs of involvement in online scams or fraud.
    Rating: Dangerous

    Well since 90% if not more of all Egyptians don’t want to do any business with Israel and since the price we pay are below current alternatives in prive, and since the money/profits derived from gas and oil sales go directly into the pockets of Egypt’s Oligarchies and since there is a local shortage of gas for the Egyptian domestic market I suggest you inform yourself a little better before you engage big mouth.

    Despite your strange arrogant attitude, this only strengthens my initial post on the topic. If they were intending to cancel all involvement with Israel because they hate Jews, why exactly would they approach Israel about filling their current gas shortage at an extreme increased monetary cost? The answer is – they wouldn’t. And it strengthens the position that there are other (non anti-Semitic) reasons they aren’t supplying the gas at this time – they are in a shortage crisis and cant even fill their own need first.

    And for arguments sake, let’s just follow all this money:
    – giving Israel 14 Billion when buying back 1.5 billion metric tons of Gas (total profit to Israel is 12 Billion)
    – losing 2 billion in sales of Gas to Israel per year
    – losing 2+ billion in sales of Gas to Jordan per year
    (and since the pipeline through Jordan goes to Syria and Lebanon too, its likely that is lost as well possibly putting this number up to the 4 billion range)
    The country currently exports only about 35 billion worth of products total, and the numbers indicate they will lose between 18-20 billion this year (plus up to 5+ billion a year moving forward) on this gas issue solely (in your opinion) to try and stick it to Israel – who they would have personally handed 14 billion in profits. With enemies like that, who needs friends? And its why I say such idiotic moves to prove a political point will quickly send the country back into the stone age. No country can survive when they cost themselves billions on one of their few money makers, while the political implications would simultaneously ripple through one of their other money making industries (tourism) costing them a ton and (since this would all be solely anti-Israel and Fundamentalist driven in your eyes) eventually almost certainly get into a situation where some form of sanctions would be put against them (thereby costing them even more money). And since Jordan gets 80% of its gas from Egypt, it would destroy that country as well. Egypt would put themselves out of business rather quickly, (and maybe Jordan, plus hurting Syria and Lebanon) all to prove they hate Israel. Too bad all of Israels enemies aren’t so eager to chop off their own head!

    Anyway, run around acting as if every fart heard is some grand Anti-Israel scheme if you want, but you’re really only sinking to the level of the other side in doing so. Holding a “everything is an Arab conspiracy” stance hardly cancels out their “everything is a Jewish conspiracy” and in the end, you merely have two ranting sides ignoring all logic in an attempt to blame one another for anything they perceive as not being perfect.

    I will instead try to stick to the facts and realize there is much, much, much more factoring into situations then your “Egyptians just hate Israel” theory. Plus, since it looks like Israel will make a fortune in this whole thing on top of the likelihood they will be producing their own Gas in about 2 years, its ultimately going to be a huge net positive within a fairly short amount of time anyway, with Egypt’s ultimate intentions being an extremely moot point on this particular issue.

  6. JoeyO says:
    March 10, 2011 at 6:56 am

    You know yamit82, 4 of the links you provided above are to sites carrying viruses. Are you doing this on purpose where the site should be warned of your actions? Or do you just need desperately a new virus scan for your computer?

    Since you do not name those sites with viruses, I must conclude that you wish others who read my comments to catch infections or you are just full of FALSE POSITIVES

    Well since 90% if not more of all Egyptians don’t want to do any business with Israel and since the price we pay are below current alternatives in prive, and since the money/profits derived from gas and oil sales go directly into the pockets of Egypt’s Oligarchies and since there is a local shortage of gas for the Egyptian domestic market I suggest you inform yourself a little better before you engage big mouth.

    JoeyO:

    Read this: I cut and paste the whole article so wouldn’t get more false positives 😉

    Israel to sell back gas to Egypt at $12b profit – report

    Israel could make a 600% return on the resale of gas to meet a shortage in Egypt.
    24 August 10 12:57, Omer Rabin
    Egyptian daily “Al Shaab” reports that the Egyptian government is seeking to buy back 1.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas sold to Israel as part of the deal signed in 2005, under US pressure, and whose price per cubic meter was set at a level that in retrospect was significantly lower than the market price.
    🙂
    Anonymous sources told “Al Shaab” that internal discussions at Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources determined that at least half the natural gas sold to Israel under the deal would have to be repurchased at $14 billion, even though it was sold for $2 billion.

    In January, Egypt’s minister of petroleum said that Egypt would have to import gas to deal with a severe shortage created in its reserves and to meet increased household and industrial demand.

    In recent weeks, the heat wave that struck the region has caused frequent power outages and water systems to be shut down in Egypt, resulting in demonstrations against the government. Demonstrators are demanding immediate imports of natural gas. At the same time, today’s report has infuriated people over the government’s intention “to pay Tel Aviv $12 billion” for goods that originated in Egypt.

    Israel’s Ministry of Finance has declined to comment.

    Published by Globes [online], Israel business news – http://www.globes-online.com – on August 24, 2010

  7. You know yamit82, 4 of the links you provided above are to sites carrying viruses. Are you doing this on purpose where the site should be warned of your actions? Or do you just need desperately a new virus scan for your computer?

    Also, as far as your mention of the Gas situation, the statement about it being intentional and Jordan getting caught in the cross-fire. Well, this site has a far different take:
    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/142794

    And honestly, no matter how much the new Egypt might possibly hate Israel… Well, its hard to believe they would further destroy their own economy, already in the tank because of the riots, by shutting of gas to two countries solely because of said possible hatred. And honestly, if they are really that stupid then you probably don’t have much to fear from the country – they will be in the stone age in no time with political moves like that.

  8. Guess whose spies use fake passports?

    Today:

    Libyan rebels have released a British special forces team who were detained when a mission to contact opponents of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi went wrong, it was revealed tonight.

    The eight-strong group, who were escorting a junior diplomat, has now left the country bound for Malta on board HMS Cumberland.

    …According to reports, guards challenged the SAS team when they arrived at an agricultural compound in the eastern city of Benghazi.

    They were detained after a search of their bags revealed ammunition, explosives, maps and fake passports.

    The BBC says the passports were from at least four different nationalities. read more

  9. Wednesday, March 09, 2011
    Egypt’s hate for Israel is hurting – Jordan
    Egypt has not resumed pumping gas to Israel since last month’s sabotage of the gas line that goes to Israel and Jordan.

    Yesterday, a Jordanian official said that Egypt would be raising its price of gas to Jordan to be more in line with the going rate. Egypt was selling the gas at reduced rates to both Israel and Jordan under existing agreements.

    An Egyptian source is quoted as saying that the Egyptians cannot resume pumping gas to Jordan and not to Israel without causing an international incident. Therefore they are preferring not to pump gas to Jordan altogether – just to hurt Israel!

    Jordan is now losing $2.4 million a day by the loss of Egyptian natural gas.