Col MacGregor – Ukraine is not going to be there much longer.

December 24, 2022 | 13 Comments »

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  1. @Edgar

    I learn something new from you very often.

    Coming from someone with your breadth of knowlegde and rational outlook, I find this to be a particularly generous compliment, and I thank you for your kind words.

  2. @Edgar
    @Felix
    Regarding Putin’s interest in negotiating a peace deal, I believe what Felix is suggesting, and if he is not then I am, is that Russia has always been willing, dare I say anxious, to gain a negotiated settlement, first to end the war in Ukraine, later to prevent Russia having to enter the war, and now to give everyone an offramp from this growingly dangerous situation. The Russian position was neither extreme nor difficult to achieve, not in 2014, not in 2021, and not in 2022. For Russia to return to any state of cooperation or interaction with the West, as is very much in Russia’s interest as well as that of the West, a negotiated settlement which can be relied upon by all parties, such as was provided by the Bucharest Memorandum (until the US coup thoroughly vitiated it) is very much in demand by the interests of all parties, ie the West, Russia and Ukraine. Due to the actions of the West to refuse to negotiate or to negotiate in bad faith as took place in Istanbul in April 2022, Russia has given up all hope of any successful negotiation with the West, and if one were achieved, it is currently Russia’s position that their is a serious doubt that any compromise struck would be actually adhered to by the West. As the leaders of Ukraine and Germany both have acknowledged, the Minsk Accords were never serious peace endeavors, but manipulative contrivances from which the West might achieve a better position from which to confront Russia. Putin has recently acknowledged that nothing the West does, says or signs can honestly be trusted to be any more serious than the Minsk Accords.

    In other words an atmosphere of distrust and suspicion has returned between Russia and the US, much as existed prior to the Cold War. Some are calling it the Cold War 2.0, but whatever name is applied, it is very unfortunate, and the ultimate result will likely be a return of the arms race between the US and Russia once again.

  3. Edgar very well spotted. Putin has offered negotiated settlement but must add the words again. And again

    So many times. John Meirsheimer noted this and said 6 months ago this is even a characteristic.

    Russia fights then offers to negotiate.

    Even McGregor who is a student of Russia recalled how Stalin got so angry with the American President over exactly this.

    But as Mearsheimer says now -Biden is so deep in he cannot.
    Biden has to go the whole way.

    So Mearsheimer is now truly dejected. Sees great dangers.

    HIS DEEP DEJECTION IS OBVIOUS TO ME.

  4. PELONI-

    I thought that monism has a completely different meaning and usage.
    I learn something new from you very often.

  5. Peloni very well reasoned

    Mearsheimer often points out that he is very much a minority opinion

    True and the really interesting point is why he is a minority.

    The whole of the Biden etc. Propaganda is that Russia is Imperialist in aims.

    Mearsheimer answers this over and over again with massive evidence produced. (No need really.to repeat)

    The method of Mearsheimer can be studied and learned from.

    His conclusions are reached by already having laid out the evidence.

    It is not that he lacks emotion but that is always secondary to the above method.

    Furthermore this is a method that can be learned.

    The video by Mearsheimer that I raised on Chit Chat is an absolute tour de force in these regards. I’ll retrieve it later.

    (Disagreement I may have with Mearsheimer well yes but that’s for another time)

    I also ask why did and does the ancient nation of Ireland fall for such a liar as Zelensky and that is really because Ireland misses its true potential as nation…reaching only perhaps a fraction of one per cent. As low as that. That’s why they clapped for this total liar in the Dail. Cannot put it higher.

  6. @Felix

    Like Hama’s Azov use civilians as cover and kill civilians based on racism.

    I think there is a great deal of parallels between Israel’s position with the Islamists and Russia’s position with the Monist (nationalist) Ukrainians. Both Russia and Israel have an opponent who would rather be destroyed than come to any sense of negotiated settlement. The parallel has its limits, which is I have not raised it previously, but I do find it an important point. As to the lack of concern for the public’s safety, both the Ukrainians and the Arabs specifically abuse urban warfare tactics, eg fighting from positions within hospitals or orphanages, for propaganda purposes. In fact, the distorted manipulation of the facts by both the Ukrainians and the Arabs should repulse the public, but due to the media’s selective non-reporting of the truth of these matters, the public is manipulated to support these vicious regimes. I would add that Israel goes to far greater extremes of protecting enemy non-combatants – to an absurd degree I would suggest – than Russia, but regardless of this fact, I would suggest that the similarity you raise here is a fair one.

    As to my comment

    only in the past two months has the majority of Ukraine suffered any significant inconveniences from their 8yr investment in slaughtering the ethnic Russians

    the purpose of the word ‘inconvenience’ here was meant to refer to the complete isolation of most of Ukraine from the effects of the war. While the Ukrainian Army and Battalions were savaging the people of Luganz/Donetz, the people of Lviv and Kiev were nearly untouched by consequences of that war, until recent months. Even after Russia came to support Luganz/Donetz, the limited (dare I say nonexistant) use of routine military protocols in savaging the general public, left the areas supporting the Monist (nationalist) ideology unscathed and free from significant consequences of the war.

  7. (2 of 2)
    Hence the nuance between Nationalists and Monists, which you are quite correct to note as being not really Nationalism, is not generally understood by the broader public, which is why you will hear McGreggor, Ritter, Mercouri and others, who know better, refer to the Monists as being Nationalists, so that the broader general public have a greater understanding of what group they are referencing without having to educate the public about the nuance between Nationalism and Cultural Monism.

    So, yes, I quite agree that the term Nationalists is a distorting, dishonest, rather mollifying description of the Monists, but most people would not understand who or what I was referencing if I said ‘Monists and Nazi’s’ rather than ‘Nationalists and Nazi’s’. Hope this clarifies the nuance and why I use the terminology which nearly everybody (as in really everybody) has adopted.

    Despite this fact, however, the Monists should not be lumped in with the Nazi’s as they are truly not Nazi’s – they simply tolerated and used the Nazi’s to help secure the coup. Contrary to the intent of the Monists or the US/NATO, the Nazi’s then seized a number of significant positions of power in the ‘New Ukraine’ following the 2014 coup, such as heading the equivalent of the NSA as well as heading the Ministry of the Interior which controls the state police, national guard and some judicial authority. Recall that the Nazi’s, who only had between 8-12% of the parliamentary positions took 28-32% of the political portfolios, depending on how you count your Nazi’s (this is a bit technical, so I won’t expand on it). The result of this disproportionate elevation of the Nazi’s in the govt gave them a free hand in allowing the open abuses against the ethnic Russians – such as the kidnapping, beating and video recording of forced ‘confessions’ from anti-govt ethnic Russian advocates throughout 2014 by Oleh Lyashko, for instance, without prosecution – which had many unfortunate consequences for the country.

    Hope this helps explain things.
    /2

  8. (1 of 2)
    @Felix

    “nationalist and nazi”

    It is both a fair question and an important one which you raise, and to be honest and specific, the word nationalist does not really address the issue properly, honestly, nor specifically. But most people would not understand the term which properly addressed the issue, and that word is ‘monist’. What most people understand as nationalism in Ukraine is not really that, as the ethnic Russians also held their patriotic identity of their national homeland and were quite adamantly Ukrainians, until events showed them the need to seek first an autonomous and then a separatist identity out of practical need of survival. So as opposed to the term nationalism, which I would agree with your assessment of it being a positive and productive concept, we should consider the concept of Cultural Monists vs Cultural Pluralists. With regards to Ukraine, these terms do not alone refer to a racial sense of purity vs a racial sense of plurality, but more along the lines of cultural purity vs cultural plurality. Indeed, there are those who seek a sense of racial purity, and Biletsky’s Azov Movement is but one of the groups who seek this goal, and they fully embrace the Nazi ideology in every way, even referenciing the Semitic race as being intent on dominating and mongralizing the White race. These Nazi’s, which the Azov Movement is but the largest and most successful of their type, should be considered to be quite distinctly different from their monist allies, whose belief system is not about racial distinctions between ethnic Russians, ethnic Hungarians, ethnic Rumanians, nor ethinic Poles. It is about maintaining a single culture in Ukraine, which is quite distinctly not Russian, not Hungarian, not Rumanian and not Polish. Indeed, the Ukrainian Monists seek to crush any cultural subset which identifies these non-Ukrainian sub-cultures. The Ukrainian pluralists, in contrast, see Ukrainian culture as being a collection of multiple cultures and celebrating the distinctions, and supporting the pluralist cultures much as is done in Canada.

    The contest between the Monists and Pluralists is why the issue of Yukanovych’s language law set the Monists and the Pluralists on a path towards open conflict. The Nazi’s, who were always a much smaller subset of Ukraine than the Monists, saw their stock, as it were, elevated along with the Monists as a result of Yukanovych’s support of the Pluralist, not just ethnic Russian, values with the language law and other policies as well.

    Specifically, the language law was not really about the language, as it was a broader concept which struck a chord of angst between the Monists and Pluralists. In fact, the contest over the language law was about preserving and passing the cultural identity down from one generation to the next. Prior to the language law, with each generation, more and more of the ethnic groups lost touch with their culture and adopted the Monist position of rejecting the cultural identity of their parents and grandparents. This is why you will read of many of the Russian hating groups actually have ethnic Russian members – because these ethnic Russians have crossed over to the radical Monist position of rejecting any toleration for the cultural identity of their forefathers. The Language Law was expected, by both the Monists and the Pluralists, to have the effect of preserving the cultural distinctions throughout the country.
    /1

  9. Peloni. one further nuance.

    Not just inconvenience but fundamental difference

    Like Hama’s Azov use civilians as cover and kill civilians based on racism.

    Russia like Israel obeys the rules.
    In the main non racist motivation.

    Milosevic and the Serbs also did.that is fought on non racist kind of political foundation
    .
    Yugoslavia experience deliberately excluded in the general discussion.

  10. Peloni

    Just to continue a little

    That means that Ukrainian nationalism is potentially a good thing and indeed so is Russian nationalism.

    The proviso though is UNDER WHAT INFLUENCE meaning leadership

    I may later mention Irish national and the Irish Jews in same light.

  11. Peloni

    You say above they (present Ukraine govt) are “nationalist and nazi”

    I have a slight disagreement. I say just Nazi or perhaps Fascist. I am quite careful on that

    As Leon Trotsky often said on his last years before being assassinated by a Stalinist thug nationalism is worthy

    This led him to understand Zionism.

    Hope this not seem as nitpicking but is important for me.

  12. Ukraine is Not Going to be There much Longer

    Actually, I would argue that Ukraine, as a political sovereign nation has not been there since 2014, when NATO overthrew the govt, and the illegally installed Western proxy launched a war of conquest and murder upon the minority elements in the Luganz and Donetz who were bold enough to recognize the fact that the installed Western govt was not a Ukrainian govt. Between 2014 and 2022, the autonomous regions of Luganz and Donetz became a war zone, where only the very brave and the very destitute remained to face the slaughter and devastation funded, trained and armed by the West. From Feb 2022 til about 8wks ago, a very mild version of what Luganz/Donetz encountered was brought to other regions of Ukraine, and only in the past two months has the majority of Ukraine suffered any significant inconveniences from their 8yr investment in slaughtering the ethnic Russians in what was formerly eastern Ukraine.

    So, when McGreggor suggests that Ukraine will not being there much longer, what he is making reference to is the Western rump, nationalist and Nazi controlled Ukraine, headed by a mock puppet dressed in a green T-shirt and laundering foreign aid back to the corrupted oligarchs – not the corrupted oligarchs in Ukraine of course, but in the US and the West. Hence, when Russia finally puts an end to this cash-for-criminal scam, everyone will be better off – everyone except the criminals, both those in Ukraine and those in the West, who are solely responsible for all the violence which has taken place over the past 8yrs.