DON’T SELL TRUMP SHORT.

By Ted Belman

  • The Deal of the Century will not only be tabled but also effected very soon.
  • By announcing that the US troops are being withdraw from Syria, Trump is changing tactics not allies.  He remains loyal to his allies. Wait and see how this is manifested.
  • Mattis is being moved out earlier (Jan 1/19) so that the new guy can take charge of all these changes.
  • Erdogan is not Trump’s new best friend. He will not cross the Euphrates.
  • Russia has been very silent. Why so?
  • Israel attacked Syrian and Iranian arms depots with a barrage of missiles yesterday.
  • Trump announced that the government will stay shut until he gets his financing for the wall.
  • The US under Trump will recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan.
December 26, 2018 | 85 Comments »

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50 Comments / 85 Comments

  1. @ Laura:
    Hi, Laura

    Thanks, Laura, for sticking up for the US President. You talked about his base of support. I seem to recall that you’re in Texas, a beautifully “red” state. I live in Oregon, which is only “blue” because of block voting by Portland and college town voters. Whereever you go in Oregon outside ot these areas, people are rock-solid for Trump and keenly aware of US and world politics. The media is so biased against not just the President, but the country, that it’s like living behind the old Iron Curtain, trying to get news and sort out the propaganda.

    http://yris.yira.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/e3a8bef3f0a40e12077bf269a8fcd64a-620×574.jpg

    Meanwhile, back in the Middle East, Sultan Erdogan continues to roar like a lion:

    “Syria
    YPG ‘don’t have the right’ to invite Damascus into Manbij: Turkey
    By Rudaw 5 hours ago

    — http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/281220181

    You saw my lists above, about Turkey’s lack of military might. Besides being outgunned by Russia, Israel and the US, Erdogan’s military has been sapped by his purge of the officer corps over the year, making them a very ineffective force. If it weren’t for the prophecies in Ezekiel 38-39, I wouldn’t give him a fool’s chance for his imperial ambitions; but he seems to be ever-impelled by his vanity and by the fact that he’s been boasting so much over the years, he’ll be turned on by his own people if he fails to attack Israel.

    The Kurdish YPG and YPJ fighters are devoted and effective against their enemies. Did you know that they are all celibate? They are sworn not to marry or have sex until they have won victory. They are very lightly armed, relative to the Turks, but they can be a real nuissance to them.

    If I am reading Ezekiel correctly, he will ally himself with the Iranians. Such an alliance might pump up his ego enough, for him to think he can issue in a new Caliphate. We’ll see.

  2. You’re reaching to find hidden motives for Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria and to deny its a betrayal of allies. Maybe we should just take it at face value. He’s an isolationist. He does not want to fight other countries wars and considers that doing so makes us “suckers”. For all I know that was a veiled reference to Israel. In the last 2 years I have come around to support Trump. I hope my initial misgivings which I expressed during the primaries don’t turn out to be true. One of the things that has bothered me about Trump’s base is the sycophancy and blind trust they have in him, the excuses they make even when they disagree with him. If this were any other president, the commenters here would be calling this a betrayal of Israel.

  3. THE REAL REASON ISRAEL IS GOING TO ELECTIONS

    Netanyahu’s plan seems based on the hope that the Likud will win by such a high margin, with so many more seats than it has today, that Mandelblit will be deterred from indicting him, or at the very least, from including the charge of bribery. Netanyahu also believes that he will be able to convince Mandelblit of his innocence – or at least to drop the bribery charge – at the hearing he will be given before a final decision is made on an indictment.

    The upcoming elections will be the greatest test of Benjamin Netanyahu’s political career. For him, this could literally be a fight for survival. But there also need to be red lines. Warning of sacrifices and complex security situations for political purposes should be beyond the pale.

    Netanyahu has done all of that. What more can we expect throughout his re-election campaign?

  5. If Trump Wants to Divide Jerusalem into Three

    Trump plan:
    includes a clear partition of Jerusalem into three sections, and “it is not about a Palestinian capital in Abu-Dis (a Palestinian village in the Jerusalem governance area) but in significant sections of East Jerusalem.” According to the source, there will be two capitals in Jerusalem: the Israeli capital in West Jerusalem including control over the Western Wall and Jewish neighborhoods in the city’s eastern sections, and the capital of Palestine in the eastern section. In addition will be a third region, within the Holy Basin, to be under international control.

    The unexpected decision in Israel to hold elections in April probably means the Trump plan will be delayed by months – or more. This may not be an accident; as Michael Wilner writes in the Jerusalem Post, “the administration’s desire to get on with its peace process may have factored in to [Netanyahu’s] call for elections seven months earlier than necessary.”

  6. Russia and Syria threaten to fire SA-5 missiles into central Israel if IAF air strikes continue

    Russia and Syria threaten to fire SA-5 missiles into central Israel if IAF air strikes continue

    Joe 3:9 Proclaim ye this among the Gentiles; Prepare war, wake up the mighty men, let all the men of war draw near; let them come up:

    Joe 3:10 Beat your plowshares into swords, and your pruninghooks into spears: let the weak say, I am strong.

    Joe 3:15 The sun and the moon shall be darkened, and the stars shall withdraw their shining.

    Joe 3:16 The LORD also shall roar out of Zion, and utter his voice from Jerusalem; and the heavens and the earth shall shake: but the LORD will be the hope of his people, and the strength of the children of Israel.

  7. @ Michael S:
    PS: Turkey does have the option of attacking from the north, to the east of the Euphrates. Sooner or later, I expect them to do so.

    Main battle tanks:

    Russia: ~10800 active
    Turkey: ~2530
    Syria: 4500 on paper; but most not functioning
    Israel: ~4200, some of the best in the world

    Trump essentially told Erdogan, “Do your stuff. Let’s see what you can do.”

  11. @ yamit82:
    Hello, Yamit.

    “The apparent deal that President Donald Trump reached with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Turkish forces to replace U.S. forces in the fight against ISIS in Syria is the most alarming aspect of Trump’s actions.”

    There was really no “deal”. The US President apparently just threw the mess into the Sultan’s lap — knowing full well that the Turkish windbag would not be able to back up his boasts. Erdoagan had been saying,

    “Lemme at ’em! If you weren’t protected by the Donald, I would tear you to smithereens!”

    Up until now, Mr. Gog has flinched whenever Putin leaned on him. At one point, he very uncarefully downed a Russian jet; and within matter of weeks, he was walking in the snow to do penance. Let me see how Erdogan lines up with the Russian monarch:

    Nuclear Warheads:

    Russia: 4,350, locked and loaded
    Turkey: 60-70, under US custody and control

    Aircraft, total:

    Russia: ~5500
    Turkey: 642

    I won’t even bother counting ships and armor. Turkey may have shot down one Russian fighter, in a display of bravado (expecting Mommy Obammy to back her up); but she is no match for the Russians; and it is the Russians whom they will have to get past in order to attack the Kurds.

  16. @ Ted Belman:

    Tuesday night’s Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah and Iranian targets in the outskirts of Damascus were reportedly the largest Israeli strikes in Syria since September.
    Israel’s willingness to carry out the attacks, despite deteriorating relations with Russia, indicated that far from constraining Israel’s freedom of operation in Syria, the U.S. pullout may have the effect of empowering Israel to strike more freely.

    A senior U.S. official told Breitbart News that without U.S forces in Syria, Israel wouldn’t need to worry that Iran and its allies in Hezbollah and the Syrian regime will effectively hold those forces hostage to Israeli operations by threatening to retaliate against the American forces in response to Israeli military strikes.

    In a report that has yet to be corroborated, Jake Turx, senior White House correspondent for Ami magazine, which serves the Orthodox Jewish community in the U.S., reported along these lines Tuesday that far from opposing the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, Israel requested it.

    According to Turx, Israel asked for U.S. forces to withdraw from Syria ahead of an Israeli winter offensive against Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Syria. Recent events, including Israel’s nearly operation to seal Hezbollah’s underground attack tunnels traversing the Lebanese border with Israel, indicate that Israel may be conducting shaping missions ahead of a larger-scale operation in Lebanon and Syria against Iran and Hezbollah.

    So too, reports that the Kurds have made deals with Syrian President Bashar Assad that will mitigate at least some of the danger of a Turkish invasion signal that the U.S. withdrawal may not have the widely feared, devastating consequences for the Kurds.

    Certainly, the fact that most of Syria’s oilfields are in the Kurdish-held areas of eastern Turkey lends credence to the view that Russia, to which Assad gave exclusive rights over Syria’s oilfields this past January, will not be willing to accept Turkish control in eastern Syria.

    Now that the dust is beginning to settle on the President’s announcement that he is ordering the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, it is becoming clear that the most problematic aspect of the withdrawal is the one least discussed.

    The apparent deal that President Donald Trump reached with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Turkish forces to replace U.S. forces in the fight against ISIS in Syria is the most alarming aspect of Trump’s actions.

  23. @ Edgar G.:
    Hi, Edgar

    I don’t want to point fingers and exacerbate things. Some people were criticizing President Trump — who, more than any US leader before him, I consider “my” president in many ways, who is criticized every moment of every day by the vilest of people for things he hasn’t even thought of, much less done. When he was defied by Gen. Mattis in an hour of crisis, I started blowing steam out my ears (but not quite out my mouth). Since then, I talked things over with Yamit, and feel much better overall. Yes, you have been pretty much an onlooker. Thank you.

  26. @ Michael S:

    You didn’t hear any “rants” from me. I ‘m mostly just looking on in amazement at the sheer volume of mass-produced speculation/prognostication, by a gaggle of seemingly self-qualified experts on everything in this world, including the inside of the US President’s head, in which several posters seem to have taken higher degrees.

    It reminds me of a horde of piranha swirling around because there was a splash n the water…..

    (Also reminds me what Levinsky said about Mrs. Levine..”She gat toenail poisoning “cause she ate a sick fish…”)

  27. @ yamit82:
    Yamit,

    I laid down for a nap a few hours ago; and while I was sleeping,

    1. President and First Lady Trump appeared in Anbar province, Iraq, along with John Bolton — to encourage our 5000 troops, but also to confer with military and civilian leaders. This is huge news, with many implications; but I won’t even begin to try to understand it.

    2. Massive reinforcements have been pouring into Manbij, one place the Turks are excpected to strike. The last time Turkey threatened Manbij, the YPG were occupied in eastern Syria (against ISIS) and unable to shift their forces like this. Also, when the Turks made similar moves before, against Al Bab and Afrin, the Russians and Assad Syrians stepped in as a buffer to protect the Kurdish forces. I would be surprized if they did not do so again this time; it all depends on what transpires diplomatically between the Russians, Assad Syrians, Kurds, Turks and possibly the French — so many players and variables, I cannot speculate.

    3. those bombing attacks against ISIS that you mentioned

    4. probably much, much more… all while I was napping. As the saying goes, “A watched kettle never boils”.

    “BEIRUT (Reuters) – Syrian government troops backed by Russian forces have sent extra troops toward the city of Manbij in coordination with the militia that controls it, a militia spokesman said, as Turkish-backed Syrian rebels said they were preparing to attack it. The deployment was coordinated with the U.S.-backed militia in Manbij, the spokesman for the Manbij Military Council said.”

    — http://kurdishdailynews.org/2018/12/25/syrian-army-reinforced-close-to-front-with-turkish-backed-forces/

  28. href=”#comment-63356000201560″ title=”Go to comment of this author”>yamit82:
    That is what has reported in Israel that the tunnels program is why Bibi went small in Gaza and could not tell the public until it was obvious that the IDF was working on destroying the Hezis tunnels. Just wonder if they got them all and there were just 5. One blown up and four sealed up.

  30. Israel closes air space over Golan and east of Jordan River

    In the wake of the reported IDF attack over Syria, Israel has closed its air space east of the Jordan River and over the Golan to all aircraft flying at altitudes over 5,000 feet. This is believed to be a precaution against any further Syrian retaliation.

  31. @ Michael S:

    I ISIS is defeated why has America been massive bombing them in the last few days? Pentagon assesses there are some 20-30K ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq and they still hold some territory. Turkey won’t fight their ideological brothers and till now have not only fought them but have protected them in Turkey. Erdogan is still going ahead with the purchase of Russian S-400 and other hardware from Russia and it is against all NATO prohibitions.

  32. adamdalgliesh Said:

    the Kurds have every right to feel betrayed by Trump. But let’s remember–he was elected President of the United States, not President of Kurdistan. Was it Bismarck who pointed out that nations have no permanent allies, only permanent interests?

    Not wise to make the Kurds into mortal enemies they fight like the Pathans in Afghanistan. Turkey unreliable, Russia Unreliable Kurds reliable. Do you think now any American ally in the ME and beyond will trust Trump including NOKO. More reason to reject Trump’s piece plan if it ever is put on the table.

  33. adamdalgliesh Said:

    My guess, and it is only that, is that Netanyahu was not startled. What was the secret information that Netanyahu claims he couldn’t share with the Israeli public, in order to explain his decision to appease Hamas?

    My information is that it was the discovery of Hezbollah tunnels into Israel.

  34. @ adamdalgliesh:

    Moscow: Israeli air strike hazarded Beirut, Damascus civilian aircraft, weighs extending Syria’s missile shield to Lebanon

    ISRAEL POKING THE BEAR MIGHT UPSET TRUMP’S GRAND DESEIGN IN SYRIA

    Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s rejoinder: “Our actions against Iran’s military establishment in Syria will continue,” he said on Wednesday. “We stand by our red lines.” And Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Amikam Nurkin said: “By means of an extraordinary joint effort, we have thwarted Iran’s drive for an active military foothold on our northern border. We are not done yet. If necessary, we are ready for more ground and air operations.”

  35. @ Ted Belman:
    In regards to information, let us say that I am from Missouri the show me state and as I told you before I also have sources that I never reveal. I am skeptical of them on this latest action by Trump which I and many of his advisors consider a major blunder. I get it you do not agree. Okay!

  36. @ Bear Klein: My guess, and it is only that, is that Netanyahu was not startled. What was the secret information that Netanyahu claims he couldn’t share with the Israeli public, in order to explain his decision to appease Hamas? POossibly is that he got a heads up about Trumps plans several weeks ago, and decided to concentrate Israel forces on the Lebanes and Syrian borders, and begin work on the Hezbollah tunnels, instead of moving army units South for a campaign against Hamas. Israel’s carrying out this precision bombing raid just days after Trump’s announcement also suggests advanced planning for the event by Israel’s generals. Again, the message Netanyahu sent is clear: Hamas may be pulling out, but we Israelis are still here and active.

  38. @ Bear Klein: Yes, Bear, Netanyahu acted wisely by ordering this bombing at this time , as Israel’s response to Trump’s move. He is reminding the Syrians and Russians that while the U.S. may be withdrawing from Syria, Israel isn’t. THere are also reports, in Newsweek, that the Israels may have wounded several Hibollah officers in this raid.

  40. @ Bear Klein: Yes, Bear, the Kurds have every right to feel betrayed by Trump. But let’s remember–he was elected President of the United States, not President of Kurdistan. Was it Bismarck who pointed out that nations have no permanent allies, only permanent interests?

  42. @ Bear Klein:
    Bear,
    Syria is “self-imposed disaster”. It was so before President Trump was elected, and it is now. I don’t understand why you are trying to blame my president for things he had nothing to do with. He authorized the introduction of US troops into lawless parts of Syria for one reason only: to eradicate ISIS, which had invaded our ally Iraq and was attacking US citizens around the world. The Kurds joined US in OUR fight, and now that fight is over; so they can go back to fighting amongst themselves.

    Rants here by you and certain others against the US serve no useful benefit to Israel.

  43. Quoting from witter Account of Daniel Pipes

    Verified account @DanielPipes
    11m11 minutes ago

    Well, that did not take long:

    “#Turkey masses tanks on the Syrian border as @RT_Erdogan ‘prepares to move against the Kurds’ after the US leaves.”

    Again: Pulling US troops from #Syria now is a self-imposed disaster.

  44. Kurds unfortunately are not as capable as the Israelis in providing for their own security. In-spite of fighting with the USA together versus ISIS and being promised by the US to be trained and equipped they are being left alone to their own devices by the USA verus the Turks. The Kurds have only been 20% trained according the US military. The Kurds feel rightfully betrayed by POTUS Trump.

    Turkey masses tanks on the Syrian border as Erdogan ‘prepares to move against the Kurds’ after the US leaves – while outgoing Secretary of Defense James Mattis thanks troops for their service

    Tanks and armoured vehicles are moving to Turkey’s southern border with Syria
    Turkish foreign minister says forces will push into Syria ‘as soon as possible’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6529973/Turkey-masses-tanks-Syrian-border-prepares-leave.html

  45. @ Bear Klein:
    Hello, Bear

    I won’t even try to understand the angst you and some others here seem to feel toward your own prime minister. What you said concerning Syria, however, is worth noting:

    “Analysis Israel’s Extensive Syria Strike Signals: Business as Usual Despite Trump and Putin”

    “Despite Trump?” Do you mean that the world will not end, because the US president withdrew some 2000 troops from a country they were never invited into in the first place? Amazing! To hear the rants on Israpundit over the past week, I was beginning to think my country is responsible for everything that happens in the world!

    OF COURSE it’s “business as usual”. In the Middle East, where “peace processes” drag on for 70 years, can a sane person expect anything else?

  46. Analysis Israel’s Extensive Syria Strike Signals: Business as Usual Despite Trump and Putin

    The strike in the Damascus area was likely aimed at a specific target such as Iranian weapons depots, but it has a wider geopolitical context ? Netanyahu is reverse-engineering facts on Hezbollah tunnels ahead of elections