Despite the bluster, Trump is articulating a bold vision of America’s role in the world. And it demands a serious response — not the snickering of D.C. elites.
By Rosa Brooks, FOREIGN POLICY
Oh, Donald, bless your heart! You keep on saying those wild and crazy things, the media keeps on snickering, and you just keep on blustering. A grateful nation thanks you. If you weren’t around, we’d probably have to talk about Ted Cruz instead, and that would be no fun at all.
But my editors here at Foreign Policy have asked me to get serious and write about what U.S. foreign policy would look like if the White House should ever sprout an enormous gold sign reading, “TRUMP.” This has not been a simple assignment, because there is a Trump for every possible policy position.
Where to start?
Well, if Donald Trump becomes president, we might have a nuclear war — or, then again, we might not. On the one hand, Trump tells us, “It’s a very scary nuclear world. Biggest problem, to me, in the world, is nuclear, and proliferation.” On the other hand, if Japan and South Korea decide to develop their own nuclear weapons, that’s probably fine, and we “may very well be better off.” On the third hand, “nuclear should be off the table,” when it comes to a potential U.S. first use of nuclear weapons. On the fourth hand, you never know: We might need to use nukes inside Europe, which would not be so sad because “Europe is a big place” and can easily afford to lose a few small nations to radioactive fallout.
Anyhoo. Let’s discuss NATO, which, admittedly, is not a very interesting subject. Trump “would support NATO,” but because he too feels that it is not interesting, he “would not care that much” whether or not Ukraine joins the alliance. “I don’t mind NATO per se,” he explains; it’s just “obsolete” and full of free-riders “ripping off the United State.” But que sera, sera! If getting rid of freeloaders “breaks up NATO, it breaks up NATO.” Still, perhaps the treaty organization can be “reconstituted” and “modernized.” He adds, “We need to either transition into terror, or we need something else, because we have to get countries together.” I don’t think Trump meant that NATO should transition into a terrorist organization — on the “fight fire with fire” principle — but who can say?
Moving right along: Under President Trump, the United States would show the terrorists who’s boss by bringing back waterboarding and “a hell of a lot worse.” He would also “bomb the hell out of ISIS,” and if that doesn’t do the trick, he would go after the wives and children of Islamic State fighters, because “with the terrorists, you have to take out their families.” Ordering the U.S. military to use torture or deliberately target civilians would, of course, be illegal, but the military would gladly obey any order coming from President Trump: “I’m a leader. I’ve always been a leader.… If I say do it, they’re going to do it.” On the fifth or sixth hand, maybe not: Trump swears that he’ll be “bound by laws, just like all Americans.”
Regardless, under President Trump, the U.S. military would be very strong, but it would never be used, unless we do use it. Right now, Trump confides, the U.S. military is “a disaster,” decimated and weak. When the White House is rebranded as the smallest of the world’s many Trump Towers, this will no longer be true; after a few waves of the Trumpian magic wand, which can cut budgets and expand programs at the same time, the military will be “so big, so powerful, so strong” that no one will dare mess with it. But the military will have to be satisfied with being big, powerful, and strong right here in the United States, because unless host states such as Japan and South Korea cough up a lot more cash, President Trump will be withdrawing U.S. troops from their overseas bases.
Besides, who cares? According to Trump, more or less every U.S. military intervention from Vietnam on has been a flop. Vietnam? A “disaster,” says his campaign. Iraq War? “Big, fat mistake.” Libya? “Total mess.” As for the Islamic State, Trump says “the generals” tell him it might take “20,000 to 30,000 troops” to “knock the hell out of ISIS,” but they ain’t gonna be American troops: instead, “People from that part of the world” will have to “put up the troops.… I wouldn’t ever put up 20,000 or 30,000.”
All right, enough. I could go on: Trump offers nearly endless fodder for media mockery. But I don’t want to keep poking fun at the Republican front-runner.
For one thing, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel. It’s like making fun of George W. Bush’s weird malapropisms: “They have miscalculated me as a leader.” It’s just too damn easy.
For another thing, there’s hardly a global shortage of anti-Trump tiradescoming from the Fourth Estate. NBC’s Andrea Mitchell declares Trump is “completely uneducated about any part of the world.” The Washington Post’s Eugene Robinson calls Trump’s “ignorance of government policy … breathtaking.” Tara Setmayer of CNN says Trump is “wholly unqualified” to be president, while the New York Times editorial board finds Trump “disturbing” and “shockingly ignorant.”
None of this does Trump any harm. On the contrary: Every time someone in the Media Elite pokes fun at Donald Trump, it inspires six bad-tempered middle Americans to vote for him.
None of this does Trump any harm. On the contrary: Every time someone in the Media Elite pokes fun at Donald Trump, it inspires six bad-tempered middle Americans to vote for him. And every time someone in the Media Elite utters a pompous condemnation of Trump’s ignorance and folly, 17 more angry Trump voters are created. If Trump becomes president, guys, it’s gonna be your fault.
And finally: Though it pains me to say it, Donald Trump is crazy like a fox. Despite the braggadocio, the bullying, and the bluster — despite the contradictions, misstatements, and near-total absence of actual facts — Trump is, to a great extent, nonetheless articulating a coherent vision of international relations and America’s role in the world.
David Sanger and Maggie Haberman capture it well in a summary of their lengthy New York Times interview with Trump: “In Mr. Trump’s worldview, the United States has become a diluted power, and the main mechanism by which he would re-establish its central role in the world is economic bargaining. He approached almost every current international conflict through the prism of a negotiation, even when he was imprecise about the strategic goals he sought.” The United States, Trump believes, has been “disrespected, mocked, and ripped off for many, many years by people that were smarter, shrewder, tougher. We were the big bully, but we were not smartly led. And we were … the big stupid bully, and we were systematically ripped off by everybody.”
Trump hasn’t the slightest objection to being perceived as a bully, but he doesn’t want to be ripped off. Thus, he says, he’d be willing to stop buying oil from the Saudis if they don’t get serious about fighting the Islamic State; limit China’s access to U.S. markets if Beijing continues its expansionist policies in the South China Sea; and discard America’s traditional alliance — from NATO to the Pacific — partners if they won’t pull their own weight.
To those who criticize his apparent contradictions, his vagueness about his ultimate strategic objectives, or his willingness to make public threats, he offers a simple and Machiavellian response: “We need unpredictability.” To Trump, an effective negotiator plays his cards close to his chest: He doesn’t let anyone know his true bottom line, and he always preserves his ability to make a credible bluff. (Here it is, from thetranscript of his conversation with the New York Times: “You know, if I win, I don’t want to be in a position where I’ve said I would or I wouldn’t [use force to resolve a particular dispute].… I wouldn’t want to say. I wouldn’t want them to know what my real thinking is.”)
Trump has little time for either neoconservatives or liberal interventionists; he thinks they allow their belief in American virtue to blind them to both America’s core interests and the limits of American power. He has even less time for multilateralist diplomats: They’re too willing to compromise, trading away American interests in exchange for platitudes about friendship and cooperation. And he has no time at all for those who consider long-standing U.S. alliances sacrosanct. To Trump, U.S. alliances, like potential business partners in a real-estate transaction, should always be asked: “What have you done for me lately?”
In his inimitable way, Trump is offering a powerful challenge to many of the core assumptions of Washington’s bipartisan foreign-policy elite. And if mainstream Democrats and Republicans want to counter Trump’s appeal, they need to get serious about explaining why his vision of the world isn’t appropriate — and they need to do so without merely falling back on tired clichés.
The clichés roll easily off the tongue: U.S. alliances and partnerships are vital. NATO is a critical component of U.S. security. Forward-deployed troops in Japan and South Korea are vital to assurance and deterrence. We need to maintain good relations with Saudi Arabia. And so on. How do we know these things? Because in Washington, everyone who’s anyone knows these things.
But this is pure intellectual and ideological laziness. Without more specificity, these truisms of the Washington foreign-policy elite are just pablum. Why, exactly, does the United States need to keep troops in Japan, or Germany, or Kuwait? Would the sky really fall if the United States had fewer forward-deployed troops? What contingencies are we preparing for? Who and what are we deterring, and how do we know if it’s working? Who are we trying to reassure? What are the financial and opportunity costs? Do the defense treaties and overseas bases that emerged after World War II still serve U.S. interests? Which interests? How? Does a U.S. alliance with the Saudis truly offer more benefits than costs? What bad things would happen if we shifted course, taking a less compromising stance toward “allies” who don’t offer much in return?
Questions like these are legitimate and important, and it’s reasonable for ordinary Americans to be dissatisfied by politicians and pundits who make no real effort to offer answers.
Trump’s vision of the world — and his conception of statecraft — isn’t one I much like, but it reflects a fairly coherent theory of international relations. It’s realist, transactional, and Machiavellian — and it demands a serious, thoughtful, and non-defensive response.
If those of us in the foreign-policy community can’t be bothered to offer one, a “TRUMP” sign on the White House may, in the end, be no better than we deserve.
Rosa Brooks is a law professor at Georgetown University and a Schwartz senior fellow at the New America Foundation. She served as a counselor to the U.S. defense undersecretary for policy from 2009 to 2011 and previously served as a senior advisor at the U.S. State Department.
Avigail Said:
You were moderated because you did not use vile and obscene language.!!
Avigail Said:
Oil, coal and big ag. CO.TX WY and NDK. Believe believe !!!
@ Keli-A:
I listened to the same statement [while cooking[ . Very interesting indeed. I hope Yamit82 has a TV in his cave. I like the handle keli-A, reminds me of Gene Kelly, can you dance.
ArnoldHarris Said:
That’s their problem Love, little known.
@ Keli-A:
Chag Sameach, bro’.
And Chag Sameach to Ted B. and all the posters here. 🙂
@ Keli-A:
I wrote you a few times on how to get back to using yamit82.
I hate your present moniker. write to me and I will tell you how to get yamit82 back.
@ Laura:
Don’t recall your positions in primaries in fact I don’t remember much about primaries they were not covered on cable as this one is…..
@ dove:
@ Avigail:
Haaaa Old home week
Old Israpundit friends, old Arnold 😛 and Laura too.
Chag Sameach
@ ArnoldHarris:
Haaaaa dunno, really!!!! yamit82 was blocked couldn’t find a way back in and then I found an old link I used several years ago and I got back in. I was blocked then too about 5 years ago. My question while addressed to you was more generic it was really addressed to American Jews collectively and rhetorically.
@ Avigail:
Yeah maybe?
@ Keli-A:
If Jew-hatred spreads around the USA, as you think it will, then I will stick with the Jewish nation. Just as I suppose you did, but for whatever reasons impelled you to go to Israel and stick with it. On the other hand, I’m 82 now, which is an age of shrinking personal options.
But you being as smart as I know you are from years of back-and-forths on Israpundit, don’t you think it’s time for you and everybody else in Eretz-Yisrael to pull down the Israeli versions of the shits who steered your country into so much dependency on the shits who have exercised corruption and power over this country.
By the way. What in hell is in your comments that get you shut down as frequently as happens to you? Some of the famed witches who haunt this blog are a hell of a lot more hateful than you and me combined.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
@ Keli-A:
Maybe a question of links. My post on Colorado was also moderated.
@ ArnoldHarris:
Can’t agree more.
‘xactly.
@ dove:
Hey dove 🙂
Thank you for the very nice comment. Really appreciated. 🙂
For certain people, no, apparently. I just hope the links I posted on what happened in CO – which was showing how the GOPe disfranchised their own voters and wasn’t at all a question of “caucus” / “WTA” as some would like us to believe – have been read by some here.
Thank you for your kindness. Chag Sameahch too and I really hope you’ll make it to Israel very soon 🙂
G-d bless, sister 🙂
@ Avigail:
Hi Avigail! You go girl! I am appauled at the vicious attack against you from both Laura and Babuska. Must be nice to sit in their American ivory towers and throw shots across the ocean at you. Disgusting.
Can’t a person have a difference of opinion without being viciously attacked?
I can’t for the life of me understand why they got so upset! And then of course little Miss G-d know it all……lol. The last time a xtian told me that G-d spoke to them they were dead wrong! Perhaps it was a g-d but certainly not ours!!
Good grief….I still support Ted but only come here once in awhile now…
Chag Sameach!
Next Year In Jerusalem!! :-):-) 🙂
Lou Dobbs just said publically he will vote for Trump and O’riley said Trump is the most significant political story ever in America their opinions will have impact with republicans and conservatives.
ArnoldHarris Said:
When that happens and it will which will you choose? American or Israeli????
bernard ross Said:
Maybe but I think Trumps will now contest seriously for unbound delegates that’s why his new hiers he just brought in. I think he will get it on first ballot or damn cloose.
@ Keli-A:
I was moderated yesterday, it’s ok . But, why were Babushka’s vile and obscene remarks allow to pass.
@ Keli-A
He probably has the oil, gas and oil states. We have taken a financial beating.
Ted why was the above comments put in moderation?
http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=10109
Watch Trump from the past he is really very smart
http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=10109
@ Laura:
Everybodies unfavorables are under water Cruz will never get past western states he is most vulneerable of all candidates he will lose big on both costs and the south what’s left? Texas?
For most of you, what this US presidential election boils down to seems to be what you think are policies the various candidates have promised or proposed in terms of the State of Israel. In fact, they all sound nice, but my experiences of the past 70-75 years is that all US presidents lie to the Jews, as soon as they achieve power.
I consider myself a member of both the American nation and the Jewish nation. And that’s the way it will stay unless and until somebody starts seriously messing with my rights to such dual nationalism, which hasn’t happened yet. So, all things considered, I wish Israel well, but this is an American election for the American nation, and I think it has little to do with Israel. And even if this were otherwise, it is the obligation of the government of Israel to maintain strictest independence for the Jewish state and the Jewish nation now being reborn and redeveloped on the soil of Eretz-Yisrael.
Israel’s most outstanding need, in my judgement, is to terminate the Jewish dependence on the good will of the USA in particular and western civilization in general. I can think of nothing more disgusting and disgraceful than for the Jewish government of the Jewish state to ask permission of any foreign government to defend itself or to exercise Jewish national rights to regain territories its ancient national territories.
And I would rather see Israel get no more annual bribes from the USA, than witness Israel being compelled to use much of that money purchasing inferior combat aircraft designed so as not even capable of being flown except through transmission of control codes from the USA. And being told that land’s taken by Israel in its life-and-death defensive wars with the Arab savages must be returned to the sovereignty of those same savages.
So I am not interested in what they people say or neglect to say about what they will do for Israel if they are elected, which in any case, is mostly bullshit.
What I want, and what I will vote for, is an American nationalist government that will help break the backs of both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. The only candidate whose nomination could help achieve that is Trump.
I have been spending some time studying the platform of a little-known political movement, the American Nationalist Party. The platform seems very close to the Trump’s ideology, which is neither racist, sexist, conservative, or liberal. It’s just American nationalism, of a kind I would like to see come to power both in Washington and Jerusalem.
Google them up, examine their platform, and you will know what’s on my mind.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
😛 😛 😛
@ Keli-A:
Wrong again! Trump will not get crossover voters. Read the polls! He’s far behind Hillary. He can’t even get above 50% of republicans. On what basis do you conclude trump will get crossovers other than trump’s own absurd claim? His unfavorability ratings are sky high across demographics. The delusions of Trump backers will result in president Hillary. Meanwhile Cruz is running neck and neck with Hillary. I don’t know how many times I have to emphasize this point.
Laura Said:
Who hasn’t including the USA.Laura Said:
True that !!! I saw this coming n my Sunday trips to the local Flea Market. Cheap housing developments [with romantic Spanish names ] popping up all along the HI way on small plots of inefficient farm land. Somebody was making money off the flood of illegal immigration.
@ Keli-A:
I supported them in the general election. I don’t recall taking positions during the primary.
@ Keli-A:
Bernie’ s supporters are EXTREMELY ideological. They are Marxists.
@ Laura:
I agree Trump is no a classical conservative, but he is the first person running for office that has given voice to what I have been thinking.
@ Keli-A:
The economic meltdown was caused by the federal government FORCING banks to provide mortgages to unqualified minorities under threat of taking the banks to court for “discrimination”. Few people understand this. Perhaps you can find videos of Andrew Cuomo, while HUD secretary, threatening the banking industry.
Trump has extensive business interests in gulf Arab states.
@ Laura:
We will have respectfully agree to disagree. I also disagree with Keli on Reagan.
The white supremacists who flock to Trump will be dissapoiinted.
@ Keli-A:
Your ugly accusation against Reagan is complete bullshit.
Meanwhile white supremacists flock to Trump. I’ve had my run-ins with them on Twitter.
@ honeybee:
I won’t call you names, but you have it backwards. It is trump who’s a conservative as long as it’s necessary, that should be SO obvious. Cruz has not wavered from his conservative ideals.
Trump pals around with Soros.
https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/02/trump-pals-around-with-george-soros
All the GOP candidates are better for the USA and Israel than either Hillary or Bernie.
With these Dems you get more taxes, more illegal immigration, more terrorists coming in via the Syrian refugee program. Israel gets another USA President who does not recognize the Golan or Jerusalem as part of Israel. You get a President who wants Israel not to build homes in Jerusalem or Judah/Samaria for Jews.
The GOP will need to rally around whomever the GOP candidate that emerges out of Cleveland or the USA will more internal terrorism and more illegal immigration and get to pay higher taxes for this privilege.
So my candidate is anyone but Socialist Bernie or Crooked Hillary.
@ Laura:
Cruz is a conservative as long as it is necessary for him to be one.
Now you can call me vulgar names for my support of Trump.
@ Laura:
@ Keli-A:
Who believes any of them. I don’t vote for President, I vote against a candidate. I would vote for the Devil to prevent Hilary fro being elected. At lest the Devil is honest.
@ Laura:
You speak of conservatism like it’s a religion. Reagan was not a conservative but an antisemetic theif who stole the social security trust fund to pay for his tax cuts for the rich thereby increasing the national dept by a higher % than of either Bush or Obama to date. he raised taxes in the end because he had no choice spending out of control… I don’t need to remid you what he did to Israel and why or his support for Nazis and Waldheim and Bitsburg, saving Arafat from Sharon and embargoing phantoms to Israel for a year and advocating a Pali state. etc etc. A conservative???? Bush was a conservative??? Owned by the Saudis, no friend of Israel and responsible for 2008 economic meltdown!!! etc etc
Laura Said:
No it doesn’t at all….. it is what it is….Both Bernie and Trump appeal to unaffiliated non ideological disinfranchised Americans and have similar stances (different solutions) in their positions on the state of America today. Many of their supporters come election are or could be intergangeable. Majority of Americans are not conservative or party affiliated and if a party tries to jam down the throats of Americans their choices for president most of those independents will stay home on election day… You have a political revolution going on try to understand it’s import and what it portends for the future…. I hope for better can’t get much worse. Trump will carry the Labor Unions watch!!!! Another way of looking at Trump is who his enemies are and for no other reason he should be your choice as well…..
Laura Said:
I have been on Israpundit almost as long as you have…I remember you supported Bush, McCain and Romney all terrible candidates and losers….They have all been responsible to a more or lesser degree for the State of America today and the election 2 terms of Obama. Your track record is not stellar!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2HyJ6FD_Aw
@ Laura:
No it means he can win, beat Hitlery with cross over independents and Democrats just as Reagan did. They will overcome most if not all of those who will sit this out on the Republican side and reduce the support of Hitlery.
Cruz has no chance None!!!!!! His negatives at this point almost as bad as Trumps without Trump’s assets…. Cruz is a sneaky snake and Trump is a NY street fighter… I’ll take the street fighter…. No rules of conflict apply.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2HyJ6FD_Aw
Trump and his mob didn’t care about having a popular vote in caucus states he won. They didnt utter a word about winner take all states where trump got 100% of delegates with less than half the votes. Where is the representation of the more than half the voters who didn’t vote for that creep? Trump sycophants have the logic of five year olds. Whenever he loses its unfair, when he wins, no matter how truly unfair, its the right outcome.
Keli-A Said:
What does this tell us about Trump? It undermines your own case for Trump.
Keli-A Said:
You have brain damage. Cruz is the ONLY one in this race who’s actually conservative. The vermin trump suddenly decided he was conservative when he entered the race.
As for FOX, your logic makes no sense. It’s ratings are dropping precisely because it’s all trump all the time. Most of its personalities back trump, including liberal geraldo. And of course O’Reilly, Hannity, regreta van susterin, Watters etc. He’s hardly been bashed at FOX. Megyn Kelly is the only one who’s attempted to vet trump. But that’s one too many for his crazed mob. So Megyn must be vanquished. Real conservatives oppose trump and are disgusted with FOX and its role as Trump campaign headquarters.
@ Keli-A:
Someone needs to inform screeching harpy judge Janine that her boss endorses trump and so does karl Rove. I expect trump sycophants to twist themselves into pretzels to explain away that. There’s not a SINGLE FOX personality that supports Cruz. Yet we have been told time and time again throughout this campaign that FOX is out to get trump, even as they have provided him free publicity 24/7 since he entered the race.
Babushka is right, there is no reasoning with you guys. You deserve trump.
I like and respect Ted Belman and will continue to support Israpundit, but I find the commenters, with the exceptions of babushka and teshuva, contemptible and ignorant. There used to be smarter people here.
@ Keli-A:
Pathetic scum. Every time trump loses he and his filthy mob cry foul. But every state he wins is perfectly legitimate, no matter if the delegates he received are far higher in proportion to percentage of votes. Never mind that malcontent has 37% of vote but 45% of delegates. He screeches that the system is rigged… against him. His brainless followers, including those here, buy every one of Trump’s lies hook, line and sinker. Trump is laughing at you, he disrespects you. He showed that when he said he could shoot somebody and you would still back him. He knows you are weak minded, ignorant and easily led. Trump himself said he likes stupid voters. If he was any more shrill he’d be Hillary.
@ Keli-A:
Keli-A Said:
Don’t laugh to long, yamit82 is coming for you. He’s my Paladin
@ honeybee:
Haaaaaaa in the public domain