Does Bibi want enough “reciprocity” to kill Oslo?

By Ted Belman

Tzipi Livni, speaking for the Government, says,

“…we do not have the option of freezing the situation and waiting for things to change; ”

Is this because she worries that the situation will deteriorate or because the West won’t let us freeze the situation?

“it’s not good for us or for the pragmatic Palestinians; when there is a window of opportunity, we must take advantage of it and conduct talks, while at the same time preserving our national assets.”

What window? What opportunity? I might add, what national assets. She seems to giving them away.

Is there a hint of panic in the air? If Israel doesn’t take this opportunity to give Fatah everything it wants then it will have Hamas only to deal with, she seems to be saying. I say better Judea and Samaria without peace than “peace” without Judea and Samaria.

The agreement being negotiated will not satisfy Hamas. The Government has no choice but to strengthen Fatah to keep them at bay. How can our government put their trust in such a weak reed? Instead, I believe the Government is putting their trust in international recognition of the greenline as our border and the ending of the “occupation”. While we may end the occupation we will be agreeing to many obligations that wed us permanently to the Palestinians.

Then we will have to go to war.

At least she says for the first time,

“if there is any agreement with the Palestinians, it will be brought to the government for its approval, and then to the Knesset for ratification as well.”

So what is Netanyahu’s response? He wants to get something in return. What, he doesn’t say.

“Will we receive the complete nullification of the ‘right of return’ [to Israel]? We know that we will not. Will we receive sovereignty over Jerusalem? No, we know that [our government] has ceded this. And it keeps on going – with every Olmert-Abbas meeting, another 100 terrorists are freed, as we heard this morning – and that’s when they meet here; when they meet in the US, it’s hundreds of terrorists who go free, and we hear that at the summit they’re going to be talking about thousands! … Not to mention the guns that the PA keeps receiving…”

He is quite right in this but what will he insist in return? Will he insist on keeping Jerusalem or on keeping Ariel and Maaleh Adumin? He doesn’t say.

As it is, even with all the concessions our Government is making, it is not clear whether a deal can be cut. Rest assured that if Netanyahu gets into power and holds out for a better deal, the peace process will end. Netanyahu must know this. Thus he favours the status quo which Livni says is not an option.

Netanyahu believes Israelis aren’t ready to abrogate Oslo so he carries on with Oslo but wants reciprocity. Thus he wants his cake, Oslo, and he wants to eat it too by insisting on a non negotiable deal.

Hatikvah and Feiglin want to kill Oslo as do the religious parties.

According to Yechiel Leiter, who served as Benjamin Netanyahu’s chief of staff in the Finance Ministry

“The Likud party, which is apparently going to win the next elections and lead the State of Israel, must declare at this point already that it is not obligated to and would not honor any agreement to be signed by Olmert and Abbas.“

This is a must.

My take is that Netanyahu’s status quo position will get him into power in coalition with the nationalist right.

Hatikvah will start the debate on abrogating Oslo and the new government will continue it.