By Ted Belman.
Pipes is right about the Middle East being reshaped on ethnic lines. Syria’s civil war could stabilize the region.
Various ethnic groups are congregating in their own communities that will result in new countries being formed. Diversity doesn’t work in the ME. The Israeli left understands this imperative and therefore rejects annexing any land with more Arabs in it. It even wants to divide Jerusalem to exclude parts of it dominated by Arabs. Save for Caroline Glick and her supporters, most rightwing Israelis want to have it both ways; Judea and Samaria in and the Arabs out. Now that the Palestinians have been diluted in Jordan, Jordan will be able to treat them in a more democratic manner (i.e. stop discriminating against them) and even allow more in.
At first blush one might think that Iran is benefiting from the turmoil. Not so. Though she has gained influence of the Shite areas of Iraq and Syria, these areas have shrunk considerably. And their proxy, Hezbollah is losing influence in Lebanon. The next Lebanon war with Israel will result in many shittes moving to Alawite Syria. Iran, as Pipes points out is also not stable. Fifty percent of its population are not Iranian. There are over 10 million Kurds living adjacent to Kurdistan, the defacto Kurdish state on its borders. This state will in the first instance include the Kurdish area in northern Syria. It is only a matter of time that Turkeys 10 million Kurds will join them. Meanwhile their own Kurds will become restless.
Another large minority in Iran are the Azeries who live adjacent to Azerbijan which is a friend of Israel even though it is Muslim. When the Iranian Kurds get restless so will the Azeries. When they do, Israel will be there to support them.
EU policy in the ME is being discredited and even ignored. Bye bye Sykes Picot. Similarly, their inability to impose their will on the peace process, both on the Arabs and on the Jews,will further increase. For many reasons , both domestic and foreign, the countries of Europe are waning powers.
Bi-Cultural Countries in ME do not work because tolerance and democratic values are not in the DNA of the peoples of the Area. USA and Canada are some of the few places it works relatively well. Japan is so peaceful because it so homogeneous. It is also aging rapidly because of the lack of immigration and low birth rates.
With any civil war in countries neighboring Israel, I believe the best result to be hoped for is a complete battle to the death between all these savages that ends in a tie.
Diversity doesn’t work in many places, not just the ME. The silly phrase “Diversity is our strength” has been proven wrong, but I don’t recall the name of the study I read.