By AMWAJ.MEDIA 22 January 2024
Funeral procession held for Iranian troops killed in Syria whose bodies were recently identified, Tehran, Iran on Dec. 2, 2023. (Photo via Tasnim News Agency)
The story: In another major attack on senior Iranian military officers in Syria, five members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been killed in suspected Israeli airstrikes. This comes barely a month after the most influential commander of the IRGC’s expeditionary Quds Force in the Levant lost his life in a similar incident. While Israel has long attacked Iranian positions in Syria, the recent string of brazen assassinations and the seniority of the targets have raised questions about Iran’s deterrence strategy.
The latest attack has been strongly condemned by Tehran. Senior Iranian officials have once again vowed vengeance, with the foreign minister insisting that the IRGC’s presence in Syria won’t be impacted. Iranian media—including pro-reform outlets—have meanwhile expressed concern about the possibility of the Gaza war engulfing the region.
The coverage: The IRGC on Jan. 20 confirmed that five Quds Force officers had been killed in Damascus, accusing the “villainous and criminal Zionist regime” of assassinating its “military advisors” in Syria.
- The elite force initially said four of its members were slain but later announced that a fifth “military advisor” had succumbed to injuries sustained in the strike.
- The fatalities include Hojjatollah Omidvar, better known as Haj Sadeq, who served as the intelligence deputy of the Quds Force in Syria.
- The other casualties were identified as Ali Aqazadeh, Hossein Mohammadi, Saeed Karimi, and Mohammad Amin Samadi. The military ranks of the victims have not been divulged.
Syrian war pushes Assad closer to Iran
Tehran is set to play a key role in reconstruction efforts after a decade of civil war in Syria.
Notably, the IRGC did not vow vengeance in its statements. However, senior Iranian officials have pledged retaliation.
- Condemning the attack, President Ebrahim Raisi on Jan. 20 charged that Israel’s “continued acts of terrorism” would “not go unanswered by the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
- Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force (1997-2000), said the next day that Iran was “more determined” to make Israel “regret” its attacks.
Iran’s top diplomat Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and the foreign ministry insisted that the IRGC’s presence in Syria would continue.
- In a post on Twitter/X, Amir-Abdollahian wrote on Jan. 20, “The activities of Iran’s military advisors fighting terrorism and ensuring the security of the region will powerfully continue.”
- The foreign minister accused Israel of being a “main accomplice of terrorist movements” and described it as the “number one enemy of security in the region.”
- Separately, Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani stated that in parallel to pursuing avenues for legal action against Israel, Tehran also “reserves the right to respond” to Tel Aviv at the “appropriate time and place.”
Hours after the suspected Israeli strikes in Syria, Iraq’s Ain Al-Asad Air Base—which houses US troops—came under attack with what has been described as ballistic missiles and rockets.
- The attack in Iraq was claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a new entity that has been targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria since the eruption of the Hamas-Israel war in Oct. 2023.
- US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed the assault, saying that a number of American military personnel were “undergoing evaluation for traumatic brain injuries.” An Iraqi service member was also wounded.
Iranian officials have linked the killing of the IRGC officers in Damascus to what they describe as Israel’s “failure” to achieve its goals in the Gaza war. This sentiment has been echoed by influential media outlets in Iran.
- Kayhan, whose chief editor is appointed by the supreme leader, alleged on Jan. 21 that Israel was trying to “cover up its disastrous failure” in Gaza.
- IRGC-affiliated Javan insisted that the Israeli government is facing rising pressure for failing to achieve its goals in the war with Hamas, which has turned into a “crisis” for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hamas attack on Israel
The Palestinian movement launched a surprise offensive on Oct. 7, 2023 that targeted Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip.
Pro-reform papers in Iran also condemned the Damascus attack, but simultaneously expressed concern with rising tensions in the region and the possibility of the Gaza war spreading.
- Experts told Ham-Mihan newspaper that while tensions are rising, they are increasing in a “controlled” manner. Therefore, they argued, the odds of the Gaza war spreading are slim—for now.
- Ebtekar daily was less optimistic, warning that the continuation of the Gaza war had the potential to “escalate current tensions” and take the region to the “point of explosion.”
The context/analysis: The Jan. 20 attack has brought the tally of IRGC fatalities in suspected Israeli strikes in Syria since Dec. 2023 to eight. While Israel has long attacked Iranian positions in Syria, the brazenness of the recent assassinations—and the seniority of the targets—have given rise to questions about the Iranian leadership’s deterrence strategy.
- Seyed Radhi Mousavi, described as the IRGC’s most influential commander in Syria, was on Dec. 25, 2023 killed in an aerial attack blamed on Israel. The incident took place in a southern suburb of the Syrian capital.
- On Dec. 2, the IRGC announced that two of its officers had been killed near Damascus. There was no vow of vengeance.
In apparent retaliation for the suspected Israeli airstrikes last month, the IRGC on Jan. 15 struck what it described as Israeli “spy headquarters” in Iraqi Kurdistan.
- Iran’s attack killed prominent Kurdish businessman Peshraw Majeed Agha Dezaei. The victim was the chairman of the Falcon Investment Group and developer of Empire World, a 2.3B USD property project in Erbil. The incident was condemned by the Iraqi federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the US.
Facing a public backlash in Iraqi Kurdistan, Iran has defended its attack on targets in Erbil, insisting that it took out Israeli-linked operatives. Amid the rising tension, Baghdad has recalled its ambassador to Tehran and filed a complaint against Iran with the UN Security Council.
The Oct. 2023 surprise attack on Israel by the Palestinian Hamas movement, which triggered the current Gaza war, may have initially been seen by the Islamic Republic as a means to pressure Tel Aviv’s Muslim partners. However, that may no longer be the case.
- Iran’s supreme leader has urged Muslim countries to boycott Israel and sever any relations with Tel Aviv. The initiative has been largely unsuccessful. In an apparent effort to persuade holdouts, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also suggested that a temporary cut in relations with Israel would be the “least” such states could do for the Palestinians.
- Despite overwhelming domestic and regional anti-Israel sentiments, Saudi Arabia has refused to rule out normalization with Israel. The Kingdom has also indicated that such a move need not follow a Palestinian state but could come at the beginning of a process moving towards the two-state solution.
The future: With the Gaza war showing no signs of abating and Israel gradually expanding its operations to target the ‘Axis of Resistance’, Iran now finds itself in a delicate position.
- Tehran is unlikely to target Israel directly, chiefly because it may drag in US forces. This dynamic has raised major questions about the viability of Khamenei’s deterrence strategy.
- In the absence of any direct retaliation against Israel, Tehran will likely continue to lend its support to its allies in the region—especially Yemen’s Ansarullah movement, also known as the Houthis. Of note, the Houthis have come under attack by the US over their disruption of commercial transit in the Red Sea in solidarity with the Palestinians.
- In Iraq, Iran-backed Shiite armed groups are said to have made use of heavier weapons such as ballistic missiles in their attacks on US forces. However, the assaults appear to so far have been geared to avoid crossing the “red line” of causing American fatalities.
I was booted off FB many years ago and never think about it anymore. I am glad Sebaqstien had the answer.
@Honeybee I found a way around that. You select and copy the link address and then manually copy it into FB, hit enter twice. From there, you can share it to a group. You might be able to share it to the group directly that way, as well.
FB, as I’m sure you know, has an algorithm that censors. But, I have challenged its decision more than once on the merits. and they have restored my content. And thanked me. 😀
Arutz Sheva can be posted directly, still. But, I have found the most reliable way to make sure it actually gets posted is by the above procedure.
Ted !!! Why am I no longer able to send articles by FB? Your articles are so informative I would like to share them with other groups