The past few years have revealed that the more Europeans are stuck dealing with domestic politics, the less likely they will be concerned with what happens in Israel.
Tens of millions of citizens of the European Union will choose 751 members of the European Parliament by the end of this week. The first countries to vote on Thursday were the U.K. and the Netherlands. On Friday, Ireland and the Czech Republic will vote as well.
On Saturday, Latvia, Slovakia, and Malta are expected to vote and on Sunday, the rest of the EU will do so. There are around 400 million eligible voters, although the turnout is only expected to be around 40%.
Typically, the parliament has been regarded as unimportant in the EU’s hierarchy of power, yet this time around things have changed. In 2014, a liberal parliament was elected, one that was pan-European and naïve. However, this time around it will be radically different. In the five years that have passed since the previous elections, Europe has experienced a series of jolts and crises that stem from the same issue: immigration.
The flow of immigrants has resulted in terrorist attacks and one of its foundations has been shattered, like its open border policy. There were protests over economic stability, national identity, and foundational crises such as Brexit or the Visegrád Group’s (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia) refusal to accept decisions dictated by Brussels – the unofficial capital of the EU.
Against this backdrop, this time EU citizens will not vote on specific issues that pertain to their respective countries, rather they will vote on those that require broader EU legislation.
The European media has speculated that immigration policy will cause Europeans to turn Right. According to Israeli officials, the results of the elections alone will increase the split in the EU.
French President Emmanuel Macron changed the voting rules in his country, abolished the electoral districts and established a European-French party. Therefore, the new parliament will contain a large French party, which has great influence. Lately, many new parties have popped up. In light of disagreements over immigration, or the fact that the EU is made up of 28 countries, the voter turnout which is yet unknown, and in light of difficulties in polling (this past week polls in Australia missed their mark), and the horribly complicated structure of the EU and other European institutions — these elections will most probably lead Europe toward a crisis or split.
What does that mean for Israel? It should be careful of any predictions, but there is a good reason to reckon that the final results of the election will improve EU-Israel relations. The past few years have revealed that the more Europeans are stuck dealing with domestic politics, the less likely they will be concerned with what happens in Israel.
The rules of the EU require member states to reach compromises and even a consensus. The wider the split grows – the more difficult it will be to pass resolutions and policies that are unfavorable to Israel. However, it will be even more difficult for relations to warm without a consensus of opinion. Also, the European Right is more favorable toward Israel, and this could make it easier for Israel in the long run.
A former Israeli envoy to the EU noted that “the attitude of the EU toward Israel is the least common denominator.” That is now irrelevant.
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