By Sierra Rayne, AMERICAN THINKER
In contrast to the “pants on fire” claims by liberal and faux conservative journalists, there hasn’t been a single poll in recent weeks before the firing of Corey Lewandowski that, once corrected for known bias, shows anything other than a Trump-Clinton tie, or even a Trump lead.
Polling data last week were staged by the uni-party so the GOPe could use the data as leverage to take control – at least partially – of Trump’s campaign. This required the apparent use – if we believe the “sourced” rumor mill – of bad polling data to justify Corey Lewandowski’s unceremonious firing. This was a campaign coup d’état on trumped up charges – nothing more, nothing less.
More evidence of the actual position Trump’s campaign was in as of Monday comes from two new polls.
The Reuters Polling Explorer five-day rolling average on Monday showed, prior to correction, that Trump was behind Clinton by 9.7%, 41.0% to 31.3%. But of the 1,625 respondents, 776 (48%) were Democrats and just 505 (31%) were Republicans, for a 17% bias in favor of Democrats that is about 16% higher than it should be.
Of those 1,625 respondents, 666 (an appropriately ominous number; 41%) voted for Obama in 2012. Just 399 (24.5%) voted for Romney in 2012. This converts to a 13% net bias since Obama beat Romney by only 3.9%, and representative polling today should still reflect that distribution.
Translation: Corrected Reuters polling had Trump in the lead by about 3-6% over Clinton.
The Economist/YouGov conducted a poll from June 18 to 20, reporting that Clinton led Trump by 4%. Of the 1,011 respondents, 425 (42%) were Democrats, and only 247 (24%) were Republicans, for a 18% Democrat edge that is 17% larger than it should be.
Translation: Corrected Economist/YouGov polling had Trump in the lead by about 13%.
Also of note is that, according to YouGov, more than 99.5% of their survey’s respondents weighed in on June 18 and 19, meaning the poll clearly reflects public opinion in the two days before Lewandowski was fired and is effectively entirely untainted by respondents who may have heard the news on Monday.
Time will tell what the impacts of Trump’s “new strategy” and campaign capitulation to the GOPe are, but whatever he was doing with Lewandowski in charge was clearly working well. Many on the right were hysterical about money issues and the purported lack of organization, which – in tandem with the spurious use of flawed polling data – apparently led to Lewandowski’s downfall.
Of course, Trump won the GOP nomination without spending massive amounts of money, nor with a highly organized and large ground team. The experts said it couldn’t be done, but Trump did it. In fact, people voted for Trump precisely because his GOP nomination campaign was different. There is no reason to believe that the general election could not have been won by a continuation of that approach.
Give the voters what they want, and they will reward you. Give them the same pablum that failed in five of the last six presidential elections when it comes to the popular vote, and they will punish you. Trump took a dangerous step by changing his tactics and team at this point, especially since his moves on Monday only empowered his opponent and sowed the seeds of doubt regarding loyalty on his own side.
In contrast to the “pants on fire” claims by liberal and faux conservative journalists, there hasn’t been a single poll in recent weeks before the firing of Corey Lewandowski that, once corrected for known bias, shows anything other than a Trump-Clinton tie, or even a Trump lead.
Polling data last week were staged by the uni-party so the GOPe could use the data as leverage to take control – at least partially – of Trump’s campaign. This required the apparent use – if we believe the “sourced” rumor mill – of bad polling data to justify Corey Lewandowski’s unceremonious firing. This was a campaign coup d’état on trumped up charges – nothing more, nothing less.
More evidence of the actual position Trump’s campaign was in as of Monday comes from two new polls.
The Reuters Polling Explorer five-day rolling average on Monday showed, prior to correction, that Trump was behind Clinton by 9.7%, 41.0% to 31.3%. But of the 1,625 respondents, 776 (48%) were Democrats and just 505 (31%) were Republicans, for a 17% bias in favor of Democrats that is about 16% higher than it should be.
Of those 1,625 respondents, 666 (an appropriately ominous number; 41%) voted for Obama in 2012. Just 399 (24.5%) voted for Romney in 2012. This converts to a 13% net bias since Obama beat Romney by only 3.9%, and representative polling today should still reflect that distribution.
Translation: Corrected Reuters polling had Trump in the lead by about 3-6% over Clinton.
The Economist/YouGov conducted a poll from June 18 to 20, reporting that Clinton led Trump by 4%. Of the 1,011 respondents, 425 (42%) were Democrats, and only 247 (24%) were Republicans, for a 18% Democrat edge that is 17% larger than it should be.
Translation: Corrected Economist/YouGov polling had Trump in the lead by about 13%.
Also of note is that, according to YouGov, more than 99.5% of their survey’s respondents weighed in on June 18 and 19, meaning the poll clearly reflects public opinion in the two days before Lewandowski was fired and is effectively entirely untainted by respondents who may have heard the news on Monday.
Time will tell what the impacts of Trump’s “new strategy” and campaign capitulation to the GOPe are, but whatever he was doing with Lewandowski in charge was clearly working well. Many on the right were hysterical about money issues and the purported lack of organization, which – in tandem with the spurious use of flawed polling data – apparently led to Lewandowski’s downfall.
Of course, Trump won the GOP nomination without spending massive amounts of money, nor with a highly organized and large ground team. The experts said it couldn’t be done, but Trump did it. In fact, people voted for Trump precisely because his GOP nomination campaign was different. There is no reason to believe that the general election could not have been won by a continuation of that approach.
Give the voters what they want, and they will reward you. Give them the same pablum that failed in five of the last six presidential elections when it comes to the popular vote, and they will punish you. Trump took a dangerous step by changing his tactics and team at this point, especially since his moves on Monday only empowered his opponent and sowed the seeds of doubt regarding loyalty on his own side.
@ bernard ross:
The Forward dropped Jewish from their name…. It was published way back when in Yiddish and was a commie rag then and hasn’t changed it’s leanings since…. the Paper has alweays been anti Jewish and very anti Zionist always so what’s new they have a few thousand at most loyal readers and all are leftists except for a few loyal real Jews who get short shrift there. They banned me last year but then so did pam Geller haaaaaa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Forward
These leftist “jew” “useful idiots” are as despicable as Abbas spreading his blood libel of rabbi’s poisoning pal water. It so obvious that the cber campaign is a false flag internet trolling war meant to defame trump with false libels being said by jews to give it credibility. Every anti semitic fool on the internet knows by now that trump is surrounded by advising orthodox Jews, his daughter converted to orthodox judaism, his grandson and son in law are orthodox jews and Trump is without doubt the most pro israel candidate. I am sure the leftists at the forward are also aware of those facts which should tell them not to accept the anti semitic trolls at face value…. however… they are more leftist than Jewish and have decided to spread an obvious libel in order to harm and damage another human being intentionally. Those Jews who continue to link Trump to anti semitism know what they are doing just as abbas knew he was spreading false blood libels. Hillary and the new democratic agenda for Israel will prove very dangerous to Israel and Jews…. the muslim brotherhood has a direct line to hillary’s sidekick huma who whispers regularly in hillary’s ear…. and other unmentionable orifices.
Jews spreading anti semitic libels against Trump are no better than abbas.
Some highly thought of pollsters believe that Trump voters do not always say they are voting for Trump when contacted by pollster so there maybe some under reporting of Trump voters.
One such pollster is Doug Schoen who by the way went to Britain and correctly forecast the Brexit as 4% win for leaving. Not that he is always correct on everything either.
People who evaluate polls said before the vote that the British pollsters are notoriously poor.
brexit may be the beginning of a global revolt of people against their dictatorial leadership who has rammed immigration floods down their throats. Immigration is a big issue, hillary’s muslim brotherhood sidekick can be a big issue because the 2 should be investigated for espionage and complicity in the murder of stevens in benghazi. The emails that huma and hillary had access to probably gave all the info the MB needed to murder stevens.. it could be unintended or it could have been intended with a cover of plausible deniability. Her emails probably gave stevens itinerary and then she covered up the murder with the video story… anyone else would have been charged with murder with the onus on them to prove it was unintentional. The idea that such a person should be president is absolutely absurd, except in a society so corrupted.
@ Ted Belman:If Trump sticks to security and economics (jobs) and stays focused he will greatly improve his chances. If he rails against every GOP politician who does not cheer for him or gets on the Mexican hate train again he does not help unify the party and thus makes it harder to find the independents who will decide the election.
@ Bear Klein:
@ bernard ross:
Thanks for the discussion.
My feeling is that Trump is just getting started in destroying Hilary. I am looking forward to Hilary’s support dropping.
Also, Trump is being scripted now and has changed his policies and demeanor.
In his NY speech he shifted from a “ban on Muslims” to only allow people in who share our values and want to become American. It amounts to the same thing but sells better.
how does this fit with the nazi, anti semite, racist label put on Trump… by Jews no less. I believe he is the only one possible who would be capable of doing this as his obligations are small and no politician would do it. this would be fantastic, a miracle.
Only two states, Nebraska and Maine, do not follow the winner-takes-all rule. In those states, there could be a split of Electoral votes among candidates through the state’s system for proportional allocation of votes. For example, Maine has four Electoral votes and two Congressional districts.
I agree Hillary can loose she is a lousy candidate. She may even get booted if she gets charges for espionage or racketeering.
Okay I was just curious if you had a possible forecast.
Thanks for the input.
@ Bear Klein:
I dont pretend to be an election clairvoyant nor a pundit on electoral outcomes. I beleive some states give all votes to the winner and some apportion their electoral votes. What I do know is that there have been elections where the winner was not predicted to win by the polls or the pundits. I have no idea whether he will win or lose… there are many factors including corruption in the process. I will say that if america again displays its intelligence like it did the last couple of times we can expect things to get much worse. I think that hillary is more dangerous than president hussein.. more corrupt, more influence by muslim money, a much bigger blackmail file.
Todays supreme court vote which tied is the best indicator of the first major setback which will reverberate through decades.
Can the same folks who elected a guy named hussein twice to be their president… after 911… repeat their genius and elect the most corrupt dangerous liar, arriving complete with muslim brotherhood sidekick and who may be responsible for releasing the info to the jihadis for the murder of stevens….. yes. but everyone will regret that choice. That I can confidently predict.
Are you an expert at US elections?
what is not factored in your “toss up states” is what the effect of full publication and exposure over time will be of Hillary’s unbelievable scandals to the public and the undecided. Reagan won mainly on the basis of the Iran carter debacle and a similar situation obtains now… I beleive the power of the combination of the immigration, security, and economic issues failures can call the shots… I beleive that the gop voters massive defection illustrates that power along with sanders performance. We are in unusual circumstances which I beleive are likely to upset the polls. Its for Trump now to win or lose, he is capable of either. If he can bypass the media and polls and get exposure directly to the folks and tone down on frightening the sheeple he can win. His platform is responsive to the needs of most americans but his presentation and the media have distorted his platform. for me he is the only one NEAR to my desired platform.. some things I disagree with but the existential priorities are there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muw22wTePqQ&feature=youtu.be
@ bernard ross: Bernard you as a very strong believer in Trump thinks he will win I assume. Please tell me which of the following states you believe he will to win the election? When I total possible various states I come either a few delegates short or quite a few.
These are the Toss Up States. Trump to win will need to get 106 electoral college votes assuming all the Likely and leans that he has now stay in his column. The list shows electoral colleges votes per state. You need 270 to win. Trump has 164 in Likely or leans his way. Hillary starts with 211.
Toss Up (163)
Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Honeybee whispered in their Texan ears
disappointing is that 4 judges actually voted in support of president husseins dictatorial usurpation of congressional authority to rule by royal edict. And what about the damage already done by this flooding of illegals by president hussein? He was even having them processed in central america and paying central american govs to fly them to mexico. this should be cause for impeachment on criminal charges.
The greedy wannabee establishment trying to destroy Trump might end up with a long term stacked deck that will rubber stamp rule by royal edict.
These are the Toss Up States. Trump to win will need to get 106 electoral college votes assuming all the Likely and leans that he has now stay in his column. The list shows electoral colleges votes per state. You need 270 to win. Trump has 164 in Likely or leans his way. Hillary starts with 211.
Toss Up (163)
Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Focusing on what might be one or two bad polls is very selective faulty analysis or perhaps a trick to ignore many professional pollsters as which are listed in the Real Clear Politics and then averaged. The American Thinker keeps repeating this error or trick whichever it is.
Trump by the professional pollsters has a chance. He is behind however.
The State polls are the really significant ones and only in large numbers to be valid. The election is decided by the electoral college which comes from the states and not a popular vote.
Right now: