T. Belman. Suzann Kossian has been informing from day one about the magnitude of this crises. I advised her “I have been very cautious is publishing your stuff as I wanted to see it take the test of time. I am now ready to disclose more.”
Yesterday I sent her this video by Rush Limbaugh “The Truth about Coronavirus.” He said that it is beng blown out of proportion to tank the US economy and thus to hurt Trump’s reelection.
Suzann Kossian. Feb 24/20
Hi Ted, thanks for sharing. Well, what can I say? I love Rush. He has done more to fight the Left and explain Conservatism than probably any one person with the possible exception of Reagan . I think he is very funny and he drives the left nuts. I am deeply saddened he has stage 4 lung cancer. All though cigars.
He may be partially right on this.
Importantly Rush I think is wrong on the %2 death rate not being a big deal. That is a death rate 10 x as high as seasonal flu which so far this winter has killed 12,000 in USA which is pretty normal (1oK – 25K and on a bad year, 65K dead) China and complicit political hacks at WHO report only a few hundred cases a year despite 4 x the number of people and far worse medical care. LOL) The point is Rush is buying China numbers. We don’t know what the real numbers are until we see the transparency of them in Western countries. That is true of the RO (how many new cases result from each infected person.) the Flu is about 1 to 1. This is at least 3 from what I have seen from credible sources and could be as high as 6. Anything over 2 is very difficult to stop. Especially true since the infector may have no symptoms until 14 days, meanwhile infecting others. And eve after symptoms stop, China now quarantining another 14 days as still can be infecting! So when you have huge numbers getting it, even a 2% death rate mean a very large number of serious cases (as is evidenced by what is happening on the ground in China – I think I sent you today (from my work email Eric@insurepro.info) teh CCP propaganda video of the military nurses in hospital. …if not please let me know. certainly not the flu: here is case of emergency room nurse infected (and talks of other medical personnel infected too – all young and healthy. https://www.youtube.
com/watch?v=HMMP84S7lGc In anohter video today of the same couple, she is improving and he says top medical teams are coming to Wuhan now from all over China (so this is hardly over)
Excellent: Bannon says it is getting out of control (he has a lot of solid contacts in China 5000 medical personnel ill https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=QlF0LcQO9Tg Time is Running out to prepare: https://www.youtube.
com/watch?v=fLYnomkC1fA I do not think this virus was let out on purpose. Previously, I did think about that possibility though and rejected it. Why I thought it could have been possible: 1. Just a few months back there were massive demonstrations in Hong Kong against the ChiComs. It looked like nothing was going to stop it and the regime was getting scared. The regime does not care about people or freedom they only care about control (and money). Notice this virus due to the need to quarantine has pretty much totally silenced the protests.
So for that it is a win by ChiComs. But it did not start in HK and certainly appears to have been an error from the lab such as carelessness or more likely, some lab worker taking an infected animal he was supposed to kill and selling it for a few extra bucks. But certainly in regards to the protests being stopped Chinese Gov. got lucky, at least for now. It may very well just turn to more anger both in HK and throughout China against the Gov for their total mismanagement of this and their total disregard for human life and dignity. 2. Soros at the recent Davos meeting in Jan said essentially Trump must be stopped as he is a climate denier and hinted that the only thing that would stop him is a stock market crash soon.
“an overheated economy can’t be kept boiling for too long. If all this had happened closer to the elections, it would have assured his reelection. His problem (Left opportunity) is that the elections are still 10 months away and in a revolutionary situation, that is a lifetime.
From an open society point of view, the situation is quite grim. It would be easy to give in to despair, but that would be a mistake. The public is beginning to be aware of the dangers of climate change. It has certainly become the top priority of the European Union – but we can’t count on the United States while Trump is in power because he is a climate denier.” Almost sounds like marching orders. And what better to crash the market than a good ol’ fashioned pandemic? But, I rejected that line of thinking too as ChiComs not willing to lose that much money and risk the loss of markets for decades as West now see over reliance on China for medicine, masks, and manufacturing etc as an Achilles heel and I don’t think even Soros has that much clout..
I do think the Left will try to use it to their advantage.
Suzann Kossian, Feb 11/20
Ted, one of the biggest problems with this is the limitations of people’s psychology.Per some famous philosopher (name of whom I dont remember) When confronted with a hard to fathom truth, we at first seek to reject it, then are violent against it then we accept is as a matter of fact. As long as rate of infections continue to double every 6.5 days the exponential realities are staggering. I am hopeful if anyone understands the simple math it will be Jews.
The other aspect is people in USA have great difficulty fathoming that Chinese Communists don’t actually care about their people, only maintaining power at any cost and are therefore lying to their people and to the world. Even org. like WHO are complicit. Example, in the USA annually we lose 10K – 25 K in an average flu season with a very bad season taking lives of several multiples more. China has 3 times the pop. but less than 100 cases a year! Glorious health is provided by Fearless Leaders! There are many reports of suppressing the truth and arresting citizen journalists (like you).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=3yZliBftSaM https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=p6fe5iGWeD0 https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=P32yPkr1eGM “operational difficulties” from one man. “only a spark”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ns2VJNJWuHg very disturbing new numbers coming from CHina
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P32yPkr1eGM
“operational difficulties” from one man. “only a spark”
very disturbing new numbers coming from CHina
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbJ6P0UB0io
Suzann and Eric Kossian Feb 24/20
Haunting Chinese Communist propaganda video about the fight against Chinese Wuhan virus (Let’s not bow to the WHO political correctness bull**** about not naming it something Chinese; rather let’s name it for what it is..)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMj3UAclTu4
Preview YouTube video On the Scene | Wuhan Vlog: One day with military nurses in the ICU at Huoshenshan Hospital
On the Scene | Wuhan Vlog: One day with military nurses in the ICU at Huoshenshan HospitalSubject: Haunting Chinese Communist propaganda video about the fight against “Chinese Wuhan virus”
Haunting Chinese Communist propaganda video about the fight against Coronavirus COVID -2019. They are trying to put a positive spin on it.
Note: they let it slip that these are military nurses who have been there for a whole month (since about Jan 21). They were only brought in to help because the normal medical system was overwhelmed and a number of normal medical personnel had gotten ill themselves; many of these healthy young medical works have died despite every precaution. Yet at that point they only said about 100 dead. The director of the Wuhan hospital is dead. God bless these people who are risking lives to save others while their leaders only care about maintaining political control over the people. Their President Xi said today “security and stability are paramount” while he cancelled their annual meeting of 170,000 communist party leaders.
Prepare accordingly. There is as yet no cure. CDC says likely 18 mo. or more before a vaccine. There are already over 80 clinical trials going on trying every solution. So far this year there are 12000 deaths from the flu in USA which is about average. China with 4 times as many people says they only have a few hundred deaths per year from the flu (and the WHO parrots those ridiculus numbers too just like they do the Chinese numbers for COVID 19!) Please ask yourself how long are you ready to quarantine yourself?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMj3UAclTu4
@ adamdalgliesh:
I don’t think they overreacted – the WHO praised their efforts. The problem is that they silenced the warnings and didn’t react soon enough.
“4. For US adults, pneumonia is the most common cause
of hospital admissions other than women giving birth. About 1 million adults in the US seek care in a hospital due to pneumonia every year, and 50,000 die from this disease.
5. While young healthy adults have less risk of pneumonia than the age extremes, it is always a threat. Half of all non-immunocompromised adults hospitalized for severe pneumonia in the US are younger adults (18-57 years of age). Half the deaths from bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia occur in people ages 18-64.
6. Older people have higher risk of getting pneumonia, and are more likely to die from it if they do. For US seniors, hospitalization for pneumonia has a greater risk of death compared to any of the other top 10 reasons for hospitalization.
7. Pneumonia is the most common cause of sepsis and septic shock, causing 50% of all episodes.
8. Pneumonia can develop in patients already in the hospital for other reasons. Hospital-acquired pneumonia has a higher” risk.
This is from thoracic.com, the website of the American Throcic Society.
To me, this report suggests that pneumonia, which has been around for centuries, may present a greater health risk than coronavirus. A 5% death rate is very high. This site also says that new, antibiotic-resistant strains are always emerging. People often die from pneumonia who are admitted to hospitals with other diseases. This appears to confirm my suspicion that when large numbers of people some sick and some healthy, are isolated in the same building, the risk of the quarantined indiduas, both sick and healthy, is much higher than if they had not been quarantined. Those suffering from coronavirus, as well as the healthy quarantined individals, may well contract pneumonia and other infections as well as coronavirus. The likehood that people will die when they develop a secondary infection is much higher than when they have only one illness.
I wonder if the high death rate in China was the result of the government’s drastic oreerreation to the illness.
@ adamdalgliesh:
GZ = Guangzhou = formerly, Canton, center of perhaps the most populous metro area in the world, with possibly 120,000,000 people:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearl_River_Delta
The metro area includes Guangzhou, Shenzen, Hong Kong & Macau and several other cities, some of them larger than New York City. The people are very close together.
“7 Scary Drug-Resistant Infections
Amanda B Keener, PhD
By Amanda B Keener, PhD
Last Updated: April 20, 2015
Beware of Superbugs”
From a wbsite called Everyday Health.” These “Superbugs” have been around for years, but for some reason no one is in a panic about them.
This article contains much magnified pictures of these infected cells. Some of them are suprisingly beautiful. But a good idea to avoid contact with them.
@ Michael S: Michael, what is GZ?
@ Michael S: Very perceptive and wise comments, Michael.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Hi, Adam
I think it would be wrong to compare the current dip in the market, with the crash of ’08. That sharp decline was a mix of profit-taking with an overdue correction for an overheated market based on speculation. I don’t think the steady rise since Trump got elected was speculative: it was the result of renewed confidence in America as a place to invest, built upon real incentives such as tax cuts and deregulation. If Donald Trump gets re-elected, or if it appears that he will, I expect the market to rebound quickly. The current shakeup seems to be built on automated stops, etc., based on panic over a deliberate health scare engineered by globalist manipulators. This isn’t a “conspiracy theory”; it’s just how the market seems to operate. Many investors are already seeing this a great buying opportunity. The Saudi-Russia oil spat seems like a side issue, as much to do with politics as economics. We’ll see how it goes.
HI, Buzz
I think my granddaughter is out of Chongqing and back in GZ; but she still seems to be quarantined with Ayih for the time being. The two families swap food at a meeting place; and as you say, they must go through fever checks whether on foot or in a vehicle.
One thing I don’t like about the prospect of wearing a mask, is that I would have to shave. Look at the guidelines:
https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2020/02/26/Photos/ZH/MW-IA992_beards_20200226211309_ZH.jpg?uuid=b30e5d9a-5906-11ea-9074-9c8e992d421e
A Hitler moustache is OK, but not a full beard? No thanks, I’ll keep the beard and forget the mask.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Although I don’t think it was ever a crisis in Chongqing, it certainly was a serious problem in China, especially in Hubei Province and its capitol, Wuhan, perhaps the scariest thing I’ve ever lived through, but I’ve also seen misinformation that exaggerated it, sometimes to ridiculous levels I believe the problem is ebbing in China although it seems to be increasing elsewhere.
“Already clobbered, travel industry bemoans ‘death blow’ quarantine order
Finance Ministry said to estimate that requirement could cost economy NIS 4.9 billion a month; unemployment benefits granted to tour guides, laid-off workers in tourism industry
By TOI staff9 March 2020, 11:04 pm”
@ Buzz of the Orient: Buzz, sounds to me like the whole crisis in Chonqqing and elsewhere in China has een overblown.
”
Tourism industry bemoans ‘death blow’ quarantine order
By TOI STAFF
Finance Ministry said to estimate that requirement could cost economy NIS 4.9 billion a month; unemployment benefits granted to tour guides, laid-off workers in tourism industry” Hey Ted, please give me a chance to edit this. I had only intended to copy one headline,
I thought garlic was to keep vampires away.
The latest reports I’ve seen about Chongqing is that in all there have been less than 600 cases in a population of 32 million, 6 deaths, only about 50 remain in hospital the rest having recovered, and there have been no new cases for more than 10 days. People are starting to go back to work, some stores and restaurants are opening, I went to the bank, but to go into most stores, banks, restaurants and even to return to our own apartment we first have to pass a fever check. Almost everyone is still wearing surgical masks, whether or not they are effective, but at least it makes one feel a little more secure knowing that if they ere to cough or sneeze it might prevent it from spreading. Perhaps it’s just psychological.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Hi, Adam.
“I think that the CDC’s statistics are correct, and Trump’s are probably incorrect. He has always had troubled keeping his facts and data straight. But his gut judgment that public anxiety about the virus is exaggerated, and the sensationalist press has unnecessarily frightened people, is probably correct.”
I agree. This latest coronavirus is far deadlier than the seasonal flu, and even more so because we have no vaccine for it. On the other hand, even deadly flus like SARS tend to diminish in warmer weather, and eventually seem to disappear. Old timers like me, though, we need to lie low.
@ Edgar G.:
HAH HAH!
Better to smell with garlic than get the flu. I know that it works (you don’t have to eat it before going out).
@ adamdalgliesh:
“Report: New far-reaching quarantine could cost Israel $1.4 billion
The Finance Ministry assesses the government decision to send all those arriving in Israel under home quarantine will cost Israel some NIS 4.9 billion ($1.4 billion), Channel 12 reports.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-new-far-reaching-quarantine-could-cost-israel-1-4-billion/
@ Reader:
“Global isolation [in Israel of foreigners and returning Israelis] decision came at request of United States”
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/277057
The old fox Bibi did the right thing (for himself) with his “proposal to the Health Ministry”
@ Michael S:
I never said there was a vaccine.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Trump: ‘37,000 Americans died of flu, nothing shut down’
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/277060
President Trump thinks that the fears about the coronavirus are overstated. But the Centers for Disease Control and prevention don’t agree.
“Donald Trump addressed the spread of the coronavirus disease in the United States tonight, saying that regular seasonal flu is more deadly, but does not disrupt civilian life. “It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down,” the President tweeted.
Trump added that coronavirus is less deadly: “At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”, he wrote.
According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States data, 34 million people suffer from influenza each year in the country. 350,000 are hospitalized and 20,000 die from the disease. That is, the death rate is about 0.06%. So far, there have been 617 people with coronavirus in the U.S. and 22 of them have died, marking a 3.5% mortality percentage, similar to the total deaths from coronavirus worldwide.”
From tonight’s Arutz Sheva.
I think that the CDC’s statistics are correct, and Trump’s are probably incorrect. He has always had troubled keeping his facts and data straight. But his gut judgment that public anxiety about the virus is exaggerated, and the sensationalist press has unnecessarilyfrightened people, is probably correct.
There are certainly infectious diseases that have as high or even higher death rates than coronavirus that have been allowed to sppread uncontrolled, and have received little attention. That is certainly true of tuberculosis. Numerous illegal immigrants bring this disease into the United States, and the bleeding hearts won’t allow the immigration authroities to put them in detention where they can be screened for it. Resistant strains have developed that cannot be treated with antibiotics. Yet no one has been placed in quarantine and the press says almost nothing about it.
I can’t remember the name, but there is an infectious disease that attacks people with open wounds. It is also resistant to antibiotic treatment and takes a very high death toll. The press has said almostnothing about this infection, either. I don’t know if the patients are placed in any sort of mandatory isolation or not.
I don’t know what the death rate from pseumonia is, but I think it is quite high for those with preexisting conditions.
Since coronavirus in only one of the infectious diseases plaguing Americans, and so far has killed far fewer than many others, I think the emphasis placed on it by theWHO, the CDC, the US. Government and especially the media is unwarrented and is destroying our economy to no purpose.
@ Reader:
You just eat it raw…. and it’s main work effect is that it keeps everybody far away from you….So, in that way, it helps to isolate from the virus, but only in that way…Of course wearing open toed leather sandals, and dressing in a hand woven long garment goes with that picture….not forgetting the scraggy beard to match.-
Sorry Michael, wrote this before seeing your very same observation.
@ Michael S:
Correction, reader. I should have said “There is no VACCINE available at present (We have all the “virus” we need)
@ adamdalgliesh:
It’s O.K. Nothing to do with age, just thinking of 5 things at the same time whilst writing. I was kidding. You are a prince compared to a particular poster here..who incidentally, I have nor seen in print for while.
About your computer, mine also does the same thing; it suggests a completion to my sentence which I didn’t want, so I have to back erase it, and complete my sentence. But the item I was talking about is different. Combined with keys that won’t write, and then suddenly be good for 10 mins, and the odd confusion I mentioned, I have a really challenging time getting out a coherent post after MUCH editing and re-editing….almost like “vote counting, in needing care.
@ Reader:
Thanks, Reader.
I read the garlic article, as you suggested. Yes, it does seem to have some benefit, over and above the obvious social isolation effect. The measurements were made in vitro; and the effect on the virus was minimal; but it was interesting research.
Of course, there is no virus available at present. Different countries have tried different approaches toward this bug:
1. China began with typical bureaucratic incompetnece, followed by draconian measures. The result has been the economic calamity we are now dealing with.
2. Iran tried denial and coverup, and has lost some key members of their ruling party.
3. Italy and the rest of Europe seem to have gotten together in a room, assumed a New Age meditation posture, and collectively HOPED everything would turn out well. They have ended up infecting more countries than the Chinese have, and currently in partial lock-down.
4. The South Koreans have a kooky False Messiah to deal with, who has wreaked havoc on them; but to their credit, they haven’t spread much outside of Korea.
All these cases have had disastrous results. Boris Johnson seems to have tried the Italian “meditation” method. Fortunately for the world,Brits don’t circulate as far and wide as the Italians nowadays. The Japanese, to their credit, have managed to be poorer spreaders than the ship in their harbor
The Indians seem to have done better than anyone; and I’m confident it isn’t due to superior hygeine. Perhaps we should all drink water from Mother Ganga.
It’s all beyond me. Meanwhile, I’m holed up here.
@ Michael S:
Here is a search I did on garlic’s antiviral properties:
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=garlic+is+antiviral
It includes several scientific articles.
They say it has to be eaten RAW in order to work.
I hope no one in your family gets the virus and you will see your daughter soon.
Israel is getting close to developing a vaccine against the thing (this is from 02-27-20):
https://worldisraelnews.com/coronavirus-breakthrough-israeli-researchers-make-discovery-that-could-lead-to-vaccine/?utm_source=MadMimi&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Israel+Makes+Coronavirus+Breakthrough%3B+Dershowitz%3A+Sanders+is+America%27s+Corbyn%3B+Israel+Tells+Citizens%3A+%27Don%27t+Fly%27%3B+Al+Jazeera+Spied+on+US+Jews+to+Make+Anti-Israel+Film&utm_campaign=20200227_m157125080_Israel+Makes+Coronavirus+Breakthrough%3B+Dershowitz%3A+Sanders+is+America%27s+Corbyn%3B+Israel+Tells+Citizens%3A+%27Don%27t+Fly%27%3B+Al+Jazeera+Spied+on+US+Jews+to+Make+Anti-Israel+Film&utm_term=_0D_0A_09_09_09_09_09_09_09_09_09_09Read+Now_0D_0A_09_09_09_09_09_09_09_09_09
Yes, the URL IS this long.
Hi, Edgar, Adam, Reader et al
Q: Is the virus political?
A: This is an election year. EVERYTHING is political
Q: What is the REAL death rate??
A: For the likes of Edgar and me, it doesn’t matter: Once you’re actually DIAGNOSED with the virus, people in our age group need to finalize their wills — if they can.
Q: Are we all “overreacting”?
A: Judge for yourself: My daughter has been in quarantine since January, separated by 600 miles from my youngest granddaughter. They are running low on needed supplies. That’s in China, but these are US citizens. Here in Oregon, the official caseload doubled on Saturday, then doubled again on Sunday, and most of the cases are of unknown origin. We live on the transportation corridor between the hardest-hit states in the US; and the restaurant I used to frequent is a hangout for highly vulnerable homeless people. Am I “over-reacting” by deciding to stay home most of the time?
Q: Garlic. How does it fend off the plague?
A. I like the “It keeps people from coming near you” hypothesis. I might try it.
China, Iran and Italy have been temporarily paralyzed by this thing. Has the US learned from them? No comment.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Frequent hand washing and not touching one’s face and eyes with unwashed hands helps a lot with not catching the flu – doesn’t hurt to do the same with coronavirus.
Also, the anecdotal evidence shows that eating garlic during flu epidemics helps also (please, do not say that it’s because everyone is trying to avoid the garlic eaters – this is not the reason).
@ Edgar G.:
I wasn’t quoting Netanyahu (and why would he say that he came to his senses?), I was guessing that he suddenly came to his senses.
After all, unless (like I stated before) the coronavirus hysteria is purely political, one has to think that, either, by proposing not to quarantine Americans returning to Israel, he 1) tried to curry favor with a mighty foreign power even if it doing so would expose Israeli population to a deadly virus or, 2) he had a moment of temporary insanity (loss of his senses) which he managed to overcome.
There is another possibility, he knew that his proposal to the Health Ministry would be rejected but he made sure that the mighty foreign power found out about his proposal and appreciated his loyalty (which seems pretty disgusting, if true).
Netanyahu is a disaster but Gantz is worse.
“Chinese scientists identify two strains of the coronavirus, indicating it’s already mutated at least once” I think it was Michael who brought this article from CNBC to our attention. h/t and thanks, Michael. It seems to me that the way of treating the coronavirus through coronavirus and isolation makes the problem worse, not better, by creating a kind of “human petrie” dish that enables the evolution of the virus to something even more deadly. The strict sanitary measures adopted in the mandatory isolation wards, and recommended to people in self-isolation, may have the effect of facilitating the development of resistant strains of the virus that are more deadly than the “original” virus. Confining the viral microbial cells themselves in a limited space may also facilitate their interacting and combining in ways that facilitate the evolution of more deadly strains of the virus.
My impression is that fresh air and sunshine are very effective in destroying microbes, and that when people are deprived of these things, the deadly microbes in their body multiply and become more deadly.
Much of this is either intuitive of based on memories of things I read long ago about other infectious diseases. If any of our readers have a medical or medical-research professional background, please review these comments and correct me if they are wrong, or confirm them if they are accurate.
@ Edgar G.:
@ Edgar G.: edgar, my computer does frequently write its own “suggestions” to complete a word after I first write maybe one or two letters. This is a really weird phenomenon, but it actually happens. I am in effect forced to type someone else’s typos.
Hoever, it is possible that I made this mispelling myself. I do have a Ph.D. in English, but I’m getting old, like Joe Biden.
@ Reader:
Your comment caused me to look at Netanyahu’s remarks again I saw nowhere that he said he came to his senses, or even close- Perhaps you were ad-libbing.
@ adamdalgliesh:
A Ph.D writing “reeking havoc”–phonetically it’s fine….but, some prefer “wreaking”……
I think it has to be your balky computer…. I have one also, and can never figure out why it does what it does. Whilst I’m correcting one part, another part, previously perfect, seems to alter itself. You once said it has to do with some programme….I think…
@ Reader:
I read that too. It seems crazy…
@ adamdalgliesh:
I think it has a more public effect because it seems to spread so quickly and easily, with a thousand or more being reported in some countries over the previous 23 hours.
@ Reader:
@ Reader:
The followup – Netanyahu came to his senses suddenly?:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/276997
@ Michael S:
How can you be so sure that they didn’t start the outbreak?
And if they did, would they let the whole world know about it? Or would they do it as covertly and indirectly as possible?
Here is another proof it’s political:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/276989
It’s OK to quarantine Italians coming to Israel but quarantining AMERICANS coming to Israel from certain areas of the US “may jeopardize the US-Israel relationship” (may not be the exact quote).
Sounds unreal, doesn’t it?
@ Reader:
If the US were trying to “stick it” to China, we would have started the outbreak; it wouldn’t have started in a Chinese wet market. Donald Trump has been blamed for the weather; I am not surprized that he is also being blamed for plagues.
@ adamdalgliesh:
I am wondering whether the major reason for the coronavirus hysterics is political, in view of the recent US/China quarrels, a good opportunity to “stick it to China” and to hurt Chinese economy and reputation in order “to make America great again”.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Hi, Adam
I just want my granddaughter to be able to travel back to be with her family; and for me and my loved ones here not to catch the bug. I haven’s read Praeger; but if he’s like just about everyone else I see in the news, he’s trying to make some political hay over it all.
Thank you for your concern, though.
Everyone should read Dennis Pragers’ brilliant analysis of the Coronavirus hysteria and its harmful impact on our economy in the March 5 Jewish Press. https://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/columns/pragers-perspective/from-hysteria-to-hysteria/2020/03/05/. Prager documents how many exceptionally severe strains of the flu in past years, such as swine flue, MERS, SARS, and several that were not even given a special name, actual caused tens of thousands of deaths in the United States without causing this degree of panic. The coronavirus actually is likely to have a lower death rate than some of these earlier flu strains. And flu causes tens of thousands of deaths in the U.S. every year, even when the main yearly strains are not deemed especially dangerous.
However, in Prager’s view, the massive panic about coronavirus is reeking havoc on out economy, severely hurtng the travel industries, manufacturing and world trade, not to mention the stock and bond markets. If the hysteria plunges us into a depression, that will kill far more people than the present epidemic.
@ Edgar G.:
Hi, Edgar
State sources tell us that seven cases are being “monitored” in our county (which, for practical purposes, probably means our hospital), but the county refuses to tell us their status or location…
Now they’re saying one of them checked into the hospital, then was sent to quarantine at home. Heshe was on one of the infected cruise ships…
That’s the way the news has been trickling in; other than that, no practical information. I’m scheduled to have coffee with friends this morning at a restaurant frequented by homeless people. We’ll see how that goes.
(If you haven’t guessed, our city, county and state are all controlled by “progressive” Democrats).
@ Michael S:
I suggest that it should depend on what others are doing. You know a lot more than most, although I would NOT trust Chinese official reports There will be some, always, who will have more info than you, so be careful…… My daughter came here today to bring me some suppiles, and actually wiped every tomato, banana, and apple with an alcohol wipe; much of the produce sold here comes from California, where there is spreading outbreak. So who knows ….only The Creator….
My grand-daughter has her batmitzvah the Shabat after next, and I will not be going. It is at Chabad, where they trust much more in G-D than in safety precautions….so…
I may trust in The Creator also, but just in case, I also prefer to “keep my ammunition dry”>..
May both of you keep in perfect health. I think Adam and Ted are in that group also, so my wishes go to them also, and all members in THAT age section..
@ adamdalgliesh:
Hi, Adam
I just used a simple formula: deaths / resolved cases = death rate =~ 6%
“Resolved cases” are deaths + recovered cases. Since it takes about the same time to “recover” as it does to die from this thing, this formula compares apples with apples.
The WHO reckons the rate at 3.2%. I don’t know what method they use, but it seems a reasonable figure. We can only guess that about half the cases don’t get reported. Perhaps it is more; this is pure guessing. Even then, a death rate of 3-6 per REPORTED case is reasonable. The early guestimates of 2% were way low, because they ignored the fact that no symptoms show up until the disease is well advanced.
Some countries, like Iran and probably N. Korea, are complete coverups., so little of use can be gleaned from their figures. Even the Chinese figures are not reliable; but they’re about the best we have to go by. Fortunately, they still form the bulk of our data, and a very large percent of cases have been resolved.
Many variables are involved. An important fact is that at least two different strains are involved, one much more aggressive than the other:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html
Whatever the death rate is, we know it is many times worse for “vulnerable groups” like Edgar and me than it is for younger, healthier individuals. Hygeine is also a major factor. Even that works both ways: people with generally poor hygeine usually have better immunities and therefore better recoveries; but they also become better transmitters.
Whatever the death rate, it’s heartening to know that the vast majority survive.
I am definitely no expert about viruses or any aspect of medical research. But it would seem to me to be just common sense that if you coop up a large number of uninfected people with infected people, a disproportionate number of the initially uninfected people will become infected. And if the deaease can be fatal, a disproportionate number of the confined individuals will die. Since you can’t keep people in confinement indefinitely, the isolated individuals who survive will eventually be released. But even though they may have recovered from the illness themselves, they will still be carriers. Even some of them who exhibited no symptoms and were not diagnosed with the disease may be carriers. Thus isolating people in a confined area (a quarantine) actually serves to spread the disease more widely and results in more infections, not less. In effect, the quarantine area serves as a petrie dish” for the disease.”
I would think that isolation would also work as a petrie dish to enable the virus to evolve into more deady strains oand forms. When a virus or other infectious agent is confined in a small area, the efforts of medical personnel and others to kill the virus with disinfectants, etc., will enable strains resistant to these methods to multiply and grow. Then, when the infected people are released, theay may have more deadly strains of the disease, and/or be carriers of these more deadly strains, when they are released into the larger population.
This is just my intuitive hypotheses. But I would be interested , Michael, in learning what you and our other readers think of this hypothesis, that the world health community is using exactly the wrong method of trying to control the spread of the disease.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Hi, Adam
I posted earlier to you, but it got trashed. I calculated the 3.4% figure weeks ago, and it is accurate. I also noted that it seemed there were two variants of the virus, and this also has been substantiated by WHO.
@ adamdalgliesh:
@ adamdalgliesh:
Hi, Adam
I am a Trump supporter, but do not count him as an expert of epidemiology. Quite a while ago, I noted that the reported death rate of 2%, often quoted by the President, is a great understatement. By studying the results of RESOLVED cases, the rate comes to about 3.4% — which the WHO is now reporting. I also said, a while back, that there seemed to be at least two different strains of the virus out there. This has also now been backed up by the WHO:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html?recirc=taboolainternal
On a lighter note, isn’t it strange that the foremost authority on these matters is an English rock group?
http://images.amcnetworks.com/bbcamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/thewho-1600×720.jpg
I might be wrong. Perhaps they’re referring to Dr. WHO:
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=Dr.+Who&ia=images&iax=images&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fichef.bbci.co.uk%2Fimages%2Fic%2F1200x675%2Fp068rcr8.jpg
@ adamdalgliesh:
Hi, Adam
I am a Trump supporter, but do not count him as an expert of epidemiology. Quite a while ago, I noted that the reported death rate of 2%, often quoted by the President, is a great understatement. By studying the results of RESOLVED cases, the rate comes to about 3.4% — which the WHO is now reporting. I also said, a while back, that there seemed to be at least two different strains of the virus out there. This has also now been backed up by the WHO:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html?recirc=taboolainternal
On a lighter note, isn’t it strange that the foremost authority on these matters is an English rock group?
http://images.amcnetworks.com/bbcamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/thewho-1600×720.jpg
I might be wrong. Perhaps they’re referring to Dr. WHO:
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=Dr.+Who&ia=images&iax=images&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fichef.bbci.co.uk%2Fimages%2Fic%2F1200x675%2Fp068rcr8.jpg
We all should read President Trump’s wise observations that the death rate from coronavirus is probably exaggerated.https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/trump-has-a-hunch-who-report-of-coronavirus-death-rate-is-false-082202592.html. He points out that many people who develop the virus do not even see a doctor and recover without ever having been diagnosed with the disease, just as many people who develop symptoms of an “ordinary” flu or “cold” never bother to see a doctor. Either they just take a day or two off from work or just carry on normally. As a result, Trump thinks that the actual death rate from coronavirus could be below 1 per cent, not the “standard” figure of 3.4 per cent. I think that Trump is right.
@ Edgar G.:
Hi, Edgar
I was referring to the High Court Justices, etc. who hold Israeli politicians at ransom with selectively applied indictments. They remind me of the Democrats in the US, with their “witch hunt” tactics. They are one of the things that make Israeli politics uninteresting.
Nowadays, even the coronavirus epidemic has become iningteresting, even though it’s deadly — it’s so politicized.
Something scary happened where I live: The county issued a health “warning” to let us know that everything is under control. I intend to ignore the warning for the time being.
How do you get lung cancer from cigars? I smoked cigars for a while in my teens. Everybody knew that you’re supposed to get mouth or tongue cancer from cigars because you’re not supposed to inhale as the way cigar and pipe tobacco are cut, they are much, much stronger than cigarettes. He inhaled cigars? Whoah.