By Ted Belman and Alexander Maistrovoy Feb 16/16
Before Donald Trump’s blowout win in New Hampshire he shocked the world by saying he would allow the Russians to do the “dirty work” and would “Let them beat the shit out of ISIS also.”. Trump went further, “I have always felt that Russia and the United States should be able to work well with each other towards defeating terrorism and restoring world peace, not to mention trade and all of the other benefits derived from mutual respect,”
Putin, responded by saying: “He (Trump) says that he wants to move to another level of relations, to a deeper level of relations with Russia. How can we not welcome that? Of course we welcome it.”
The condemnation of Trump for his remarks was immediate but certainly not universal. Many American’s are beginning to see Russia in a new light.
Until the fall of the USSR, the 20th Century was dominated by an ideological struggle between American capitalism and Russian communism. But now that Russia has abandoned communism and the US is embracing socialism, as seen by the Sander’s victory in the New Hampshire primary, the two powers are more alike than ever before.
But now we have a different ideological struggle to contend with, namely a civilizational war between the Christian/Secular West and the Islamic Caliphate. They are both inimical to each other. North America, Europe and Russia are natural allies in this struggle as they are different daughters of one civilization.
In the past, both Russia and the US have backed different Arab states or Muslim groups, including radical Islamists. The end result of this US/Russia enmity was to destabilize the ME and Europe and to allow an Islamic fifth column into America and Europe.
The reality is that Russia, Europe and the US desperately need each other. Together they can withstand the hydra of pan-Islamism with its countless heads (ISIS, al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, Salafis, Muslim brothers, etc.), can stabilize the Middle East, the cradle of Islamic fanaticism and can stabilize Europe.
For Russia, the triumph of the Caliphate in any form will be a deadly threat to its “soft underbelly”: the Caucasus and Volga region with Tatarstan.
Penetration of Islamic militancy from Afghanistan into Central Asia means the appearance of the Islamists on the longest and vulnerable southeastern border of Russia.
From Europe’s point of view, a destabilized North Africa and Middle East is resulting in a mass migration of Muslims including radical Islamists which threaten to tear it apart and irreparably change it. This in turn will have dire consequences for both Russia and America.
Both US and Russia are not able to cope with the global “jihad” separately” especially when they are supporting different sides. Russia has no resources for a war against radical Islam made more difficult by western sanctions and pressure. The West, in spite of its material power, lacks the will needed to defeat such a savage and ruthless enemy.
Thus an alliance is imperative.
“New Middle East”
A new Middle East is in the making. It will not look like the “New Middle East” as envisioned by Shimon Peres. Syria, Iraq and Libya are no more. Lebanon looks like it will also fracture due to the influx of 1.5 million Sunnis, either Palestinian or Syrian. Hezbollah Shia have been reduced from 40% to 25% of the population so expect a power struggle to ensue there.
Alawite Syria, a strong Kurdish state in the north of former Iraq and Syria, tribal unions in Libya, Druze enclaves in Syria, a Christian enclave in Lebanon and perhaps in Iraq will appear on map of new Middle East. They will all need the support both militarily and diplomatically of either the US or Russia. Thus the west will be empowered to keep the radical Islamists out.
Russia already has supported the Kurdish PYD (Democratic Union Party) in northern Syria diplomatically (Kremlin insists on PYD’s participation in negotiations about the future of Syria) and by providing them with weapons. The US is also supportive of the Kurds but bas been restrained by Turkey’s insistence that the Kurds be denied independence. If the US forms an alliance with Russia it no longer needs an alliance with Turkey.
The American embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey must be seen as the aberration it is. Rather than support the Islamization of the Middle East and North Africa, America should fight it. Rather than embrace the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists, the US should embrace Russia.
Pressure could then be brought to bear on Turkey to change its Islamist allegiances and to allow greater autonomy to its 10 million Kurdish citizens who otherwise will want to join the newly formed Kurdistan.
The US, by destroying Gadhafi and Mubarak, greatly destabilized North Africa. By waging war against Assad, the US has destabilized the Middle East and Europe. What is needed now is that the US and Russia come together to strengthen President al Sisi of Egypt to enable him to defeat ISIS in Sinai and Libya. Russia should be invited back into Libya to assist in its stabilization. Europe and Tunisia will also benefit from this stabilization as will African states to the south.
In addition, US and Russia should cut a deal for a political solution for Syria in which Syria is divided into three states based on ethnic lines; Alawite Syria in which Russia holds sway, Kurdish Syria which will join with Kurdistan in Iraq and a Sunni state amalgamating the Sunni areas of both Syria and Iraq.
Such a deal will involve cooperation between Russia, US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. ISIS must be defeated and non-Islamist Sunnis must be put in charge. Saudi Arabia would have a major role in the creation and maintenance of such a state. It is not inconceivable that Jordan would in the end, amalgamate with this state given the number of Sunni refugees it is now host to. This state would serve as a bulwark to an expansionist Iran.
It is in the interest of Russia to placate Saudi Arabia so that Saudi Arabia will cut down on her oil production and allow the price of oil to rise. Saudi Arabia would be agreeable to doing so and to such a division of Syria if Russia would restrain Iran.
Iran
Today, Russia is the de facto ally of Iran and the US is a wannabe. The Iranian star reached its zenith with the total capitulation of the US in the Iran Deal. Since then it’s been downhill all the way. Without the help of Russia they would have lost Syria as an ally and their connection to Hezbollah. But with that help, Russia is now calling the shots.
It wasn’t so long ago that Russia supported the sanctions on Iran and didn’t want to remove them because it meant the addition of Iranian oil to the world market and the weakening the already weak ruble. Kremlin couldn’t betray its ally but in fact (aside from rhetoric) will not object to a renewal of sanctions. This will save Russia from a powerful competitor in the energy market.
Moscow needs Iran primarily as a means to put pressure on the West but it can quite easily sacrifice it for the sake of strategic considerations. Iran is not a natural ally of Russian for it doesn’t have any historical or cultural connection similar to the connection both Serbia and Armenia have for example.
View from Kremlin
Since the 16th century, the main threat to Russia came from the West. Moscow was occupied by Poles in the 17th century and by Napoleon in the 19th century. In 1941, the troops of the Wehrmacht came within a few kilometers of Moscow. Petersburg was built by Peter Great to resist the invasion of the Swedes.
The collapse of the Soviet Union was a painful blow to Russia and the West took advantage of this collapse. The bombing of Serbia and recognition of Kosovo, the “color revolutions” in the former Soviet Union, NATO’s extension to the Baltic countries, and the constant hectoring of Russia on human rights served to undermine Russia and make her feel threatened. This formed the impetus for the revival of nationalism under the leadership of Vladimir Putin.
The US, Britain and France intervened in Libya in order to both destroy the Gadaffi regime and oust Russia. Accordingly, they refused Russia’s mediation efforts. Similarly they tried to oust Assad. But this time, Russia, who had lost its Mediterranean port in Libya was determined to keep its Mediterranean port in Syria. After many years of death and destruction in Syria brought about by the desire of the US and Saudi Arabia to oust Assad, Assad was on his “death bed”. Russia and Iran doubled down on their efforts to support him. Russia supplied their air force and air defense radar systems and Iran provided more troops. As a result Assad has gained much ground and is in a much better negotiating position today.
During this period, Russia acquired Crimea from the Ukraine and supported an insurgency in eastern Ukraine. A majority of the population of both areas are Russian. The Russians didn’t understand why the West came to the defense of Ukraine. It’s impossible to believe that EU wanted to bring Ukraine into the EU given its large population and systemic corruption. Moscow believes the West didn’t do so in order to protect the sovereignty of Ukraine but to weaken Russia. Ukraine, after all, is the backyard of Russia, as Mexica is backyard of US and Corsica is backyard of France.
Last week Russia’s Prime Minister, Medvedev, urged a “more constructive and more cooperative relationship with Russia… I strongly believe that the answer lies with both more defense and more dialogue.”
Last week Henry Kissinger delivered a speech in Moscow in which he began:
“I am here to argue for the possibility of a dialogue that seeks to merge our futures rather than elaborate our conflicts. This requires respect by both sides of the vital values and interest of the other,”
And concluded,
“It will only come with a willingness in both Washington and Moscow, in the White House and the Kremlin, to move beyond the grievances and sense of victimization to confront the larger challenges that face both of our countries in the years ahead.”
Should the West want to pursue such an alliance, it must recognize Russia’s “Near Abroad” – its traditional zone of influence since the 18th century: Ukraine and Belarus, Crimea, whose history is inseparable from Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia also seeks influence in Europe and in the Eastern Mediterranean. This is imperial policy but Russia is no longer obsessed with ideological madness. Thus, it is possible to negotiate a rapprochement and to respect each other’s sphere of influence.
Israel is not an ally of Russia nor its enemy. Israel and Russia agreed to respect each other’s spheres of interest in Syria. In addition, Moscow mediated in delicate situations between Israel and Hezbollah. This model can be used on a global scale by the US.
It is of historical note that the Byzantium, otherwise known as the Eastern Roman Empire, fought a sustained battle against the Ottoman Turks, who had invaded, only to finally succumb in 1453. The Turks changed the name of their capital city, Constantinople, to Istanbul. The Ottoman Empire succeeded over the years in conquering more of Europe and finally laid an unsuccessful siege to Vienna in 1529. There followed 150 years of bitter military tension and attacks, culminating in the Battle of Vienna of 1683. This battle was won by the Holy Roman Empire of the German Nations in league with the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth thereby saving Europe from Islamic conquest.
What is needed today is a similar resolute stand by both east and west against the Islamic Jihad’s attempt to conquer Europe.
Will the old prejudices and enmity focused on Russia prevail over rational considerations and the instinct for self-preservation?
According to the Munich Accords just signed, perhaps not.
It now appears that Russia and the US have come to an agreement for the implementation of a ceasefire and a division of spheres of influence. The document was signed by 17 nations, including Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubayr for the Syrian opposition and Iran’s top diplomat Muhammed Javad Zarif in the name of the Assad regime.
DEBKA reports:
“The nub of the Munich accord was therefore the parties authorized to name the terrorists. This was spelled out as follows: “The determination of eligible targets and geographic areas is to be left up to a task force of nations headed by Russia and the United States.”
“This puts the entire agreement in the joint hands of the US and Russia. Lavrov emphasized, “The key thing is to build direct contacts, not only on procedures to avoid incidents, but also cooperation between our militaries.”
“The Munich accord therefore provided the framework for expanding the existing US-Russian coordination on air force flights over Syria to cover their direct collaboration in broader aspects of military operations in the war-torn country.
“Lavrov mentioned a “qualitative” change in US military policy to cooperate with Russia in continuing the fight against the Islamic State, but it clearly goes beyond that.”
“This pact as sets out a division of military responsibility between the two powers: The Americans took charge of areas east of the Euphrates, leaving the Russians responsible for the territory east of the river. “
Hopefully, this accord is just the beginning of a new alliance.
babushka Said:
no, the “most depraved animals imaginable” are those trying to kill the Jews AND those supporting the Jew killers. I have no qualms about Frankenstein being let loose on those depraved animals.
@ babushka:
Gosh, whats better, Frankenstein let loose on Nasrallah or allowing the Frankenstein Nasrallah to bomb the tanks. I prefer the Frankenstein who kills the Jew killers to the Frankenstein killing the Jews.
babushka Said:
whatever they are they are the only ones fighting the axis trying to kill the jews. I support Frankenstein against the Jew killers
http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-said-set-to-deliver-advanced-fighter-jets-to-iran/
You reference ISIS as though they are the Nicaraguan contras when they are actually the most depraved animals imaginable. Be careful, Doctor Frankenstein, lest your useful monster become your demise.
babushka Said:
its irrelevant what you want to call them:
1-IS and the other sunni jihadis are fighting Iran, Syria, Hezbullah with Russian support… all are existential dangers to Israel
2- IS and the sunni Jihadis have not attacked Israel from Syria
3-The sunni jihadis and IS are the only fighter against the Iran axis.
4- fighting IS will remove the most successful opposition to the Iran axis and consequently, the Iran nuclear threat
the conclusion should be obvious
Where you and I differ is that I consider the Iranians to be jihadists, whereas you seem to view that regime as being – for lack of a better description – part of the Establishment.
babushka Said:
I would like to see one kill the other, guess which? If you oppose both you remove the only entity which damaged Iran.
@ babushka:
you misunderstand me, you equate no deal with a continuation of sanctions.. but it is obvious that they all want to do business with Iran and that BB relied on them all doing his job.
It has been obvious for a while that they wanted a deal with Iran. BB was supposed to have a plan B, if it wasnt for the jihadis it would be even worse
the threat from Iran has been there a long time, that hasnt really changed, the difference is that they will be delayed longer now but that does not mean that israel can again do nothing. The sanctions did not slow Iran down, the deal will slow them down more.. attacking IS will empower Irans threat. Today the iran threat situation is the same with Iran building less centrifuges etc… Iran is and was a nuclear threat but everything else is much better due to the proxy war. If Israel goes to war with Iran the GCC and egypt will be allies against the blowback from hezbullah and syria and both are now weaker. Tomorrow I am not speculating on because it depends on the choices BB makes.
It is now called the “Rubio Foreign Policy”.
I am multitasking. I despise ISIS and Iran, perceiving no inherent conflict in opposing both.
The $150 billion guarantees that even if the Iranian program is sabotaged, the mullahs will still be able to buy whatever they want. That money is going to spill Jewish blood.
babushka Said:
yes but no deal is not better, it is worse… and we can see that BB had no plan B, luckily the jihadis were fighting the threat of Iran and proxies. It is still up to BB and Israel as it was before. By no deal I am not referring to the sanctions… it appears that they all wanted those removed and just sought the excuse. Its still up to BB and Israel as it was before they relied on the west.
@ babushka:
yes, and that hasnt changed… its still better now for Israel in every way because in stead of having no options it has the option to throw in with the GCC and their jihadis fighting agains the Iran axis.
You appear to have lost track, you were against the current and recent situation but if it were not for the jihadis then Iran, hexbullah and Syria would be in a stronger position than it is. Perhaps you forget that the jihadis almost destroyed assad, have spread hezbullah thin, and drawn Iran into a war thus weakening it, the GCC proxy egypt allies with Israel to keep down hamas. Its better than it was, perhaps you should see the glass as half full rather than half empty… it was a quarter full before. You are not counting the blessings, the curses are there but so are the blessings. The jihadis fighting iran, syria, assad hexbullah and russia are a blessing for Israel.
babushka Said:
have you ever read the neocons “Project for a new american century” in the 1990’s…. this drove Bush… and it appears that it might still be in play.
Never. I am always on the side of truth, justice, and the Jewish way.
The Iran deal will facilitate the existential threat to Israel because the cash is real but the safeguards are phony.
babushka Said:
you appear to be changing sides… you were against the jihadis who were fighting the Iran russian axis and it proxies.
Iran was there with the same threat some years ago and it is still there with the same threat. It is a little better in that the threat is delayed with the deal. Perhaps Israel should have been more proactive and been of more help to the saudi jihadis to bring down the Iran Syria axis in Syria and Iraq. If Iran had suffered a great defeat it would have become more vulnerable internally. Perhaps BB should not have waited on Obama but thrown in the the sauds. Its still better than it was with Iran. In fact if BB still has some sway with the arabs and they dont make a deal with Iran over syria then an internal destablization of Irans ethnic minorities in conjunction with the same external jihadis can be another option for BB.
Even with Iran still remaining the same it is still much better for Israel with the others and the possibility of working with the GCC wrt Iran.
The big threat is Russia because Russia is now limiting Israels options against Iran. Therefore, the best scenario still remains NOT to attack IS and thus strengthen the Iran Russia alliance. The better scenario is to see the Jihadis bring terror to local russian facilities and in Russia, to strengthen the jihadis and bring more pressure on them. try to make a deal with russia to remove its hostile aggresive air cover in return for an end to jihad terror on russian interests, etc. Let the russians have latakia base but remove their s400 from the area. Then aid the jihadis against hexbullah and Iran. They were winning before russia came in. then start an internal destabilization of Azeris, baluchis, sunnis and kurds in Iran and move the foreigh jihadis to the Iran theatre.
Iran is there because the jihadis were not supported, which is what you want. You cannot have your cake and eat it. You dont like irrational jihadis but they were winning against Israels most dangerous existential enemies and now folks are calling to attack the only ones who were beating Iran, hezbullan and assad. Your approach favoring dictators like assad and putin empowers iran and deepens the threat.
Unless Israel gets the bunker busters, considers a pre emptive nuclear strike its only other proactive option is to work with the sunni block to bring down Irans proxies and then Iran. Or Israel can continue to rely on others, hope and wait, preserve another status quo which is stable… but slow boiling of the frog in the pot. BB tends to favor slow boiling.
The prescription remains the same: it is best that the syria deal does not go through and that the enemy protagonists must continue to commit their forces and resources to the war. Going against IS is counterproductive for the main struggle to damage or defeat Irans threat. IS in Syria has proven to be no threat beyond a show of rhetoric to Israel and I believe they were instructed thus by their puppet masters and kept to the north. The best hope right now in the fight against Iran is IS and the GCC, possibly with the Hessians entering in at some point. IS is not Israels battle, IS is the enemy of Iran and hezbullah, which are Israels battles.
You must believe that Iran is bluffing.
It isn’t.
So: At this moment, Israel has never been in a better position in relation to its enemies both overt and covert (if you don’t count the impending mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv).
@ babushka:
at this moment Israel has never been in a better position in relation to its enemies both overt and covert:
the arab enemies are slaughtering each other
Hezbullah has been weakened and spread thin over 3 nations
Assad, who recently tried to get the bomb was beaten back by the sunni jihadi proxies
The GCC supported israel against hamas in the last war
the GCC proxy egypt cooperates with Israel over hamas and gaza
the euros are being flooded by the same folks they hired and funded to destroy Israel
BTW, all these thing are paid for by Israel in what I have referred to for years as BB’s understandings with the GCC.
It demonstrates as:
Not invading gaza at POD
taking a genrally soft stance with the pals
Release of prisoners so that Abbas is not assasinated when the fake talks went nowhere… he had to be given something to stay in the talks which were needed by the GCC to keep the pal issue quiet while they needed to recruit jihadis to fight the shia instead of Israel. for this in return they leashed hamas, weakened hezbullah, took assad off the border and likely other things we dont know wrt Iran
again not invading gaza, helping abbas and the PA agianst hamas, etc etc etc.
Tomorrow is a different day, but it is infinitely better than yesterday at this moment. If you cannot be grateful for what is put on your plate for today then one cannot expect to receive better or more tomorrow.
Now the new big problem is Russia. But Israel and the Jews have always been faced with anti semitism and new big problems. In fact, it is a miracle that most of Israels enemies are being kept busy slaughtering each other… a blessing that can only be seen as a miracle when understanding the dangers faced by Israel that are being countered. The defamers and delegitimizers are being confounded.
babushka Said:
jihadists are directed cannon fodder…. they are much less dangerous than national dictators who can amass WMD at the highest levels… like Assad building his nuclear reactor, and Iran… Hezbullah is a defacto gov of lebanon and likely acquires whatever is sent to the lebanese army.
Here is the paradigm which I believe to be inaccurate and an anachronism:
babushka Said:
maintaining stabilty is a misnomer for maintaining a delusional status quo. In all the cases of the arabs Israel seeks to maintain status quos under the belief that it is synonymous with stability. They did it in Egypt which explains the love of the anti semite mubarak who was not cooperative wrt to hamas and Israel, they do it with Assad who was trying for a nuclear weapon, and they do it with Jordan.
A status quo of stability is almost an oxymoron in the arab world. None of us will likely disagree with the assertion that any situation in the arab world is completely dependent upon the leader at the time and his situation at various times… therefore it cannot be termed as stabilty. the situation after Sadat was billions to egypt from the US.. the ascension of MOrsi brought instability and a lack of confidence in the treaty… Sisi has brought more confidence than any prior in terms of his cooperation…. but does that mean that Sisi, egypt and the treaty are stable?
The mantra of “maintianing stability of a status quo” prevents Israel from thinking out of the box and seizing opportunities. I do not agree that the status quo with Jordan is stable. As soon as the hashemites are deposed it will likely fall apart. However, I beleive that when he is gone that israel will have a great one time opportunity to go in afterwards and install a gov which opens the border to pals from the west bank and drain the west bank swamp. I am not necessarily advising to provoke a situation right now but I believe it should be studied as a possibility. the populations of Egypt, Jordan and Turkey are unstable to varying degrees and treaties with them are also unstable
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Amid-BDS-protest-Jordanian-parliament-holds-decisive-discussion-on-Israeli-gas-deal-445056#xtor=EPR-1- [Newsletter]
http://www.timesofisrael.com/jordan-said-to-mull-canceling-gas-deal-with-israel/?utm_source=The+Times+of+Israel+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=c03c3d7fb9-2016_02_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_adb46cec92-c03c3d7fb9-54816837
http://www.jihadwatch.org/2016/02/turkey-article-in-pro-government-daily-says-gorillas-and-chimps-are-cursed-mutated-jews
and as for egypt we have seen years of state sponsored anti semitism and anti Israelism… the populations of all are nuts.
therefore we should have no sentimental journeys for Mubarak or any of them, none are even near acceptable never mind optimum or ideal….nor even stable.
babushka Said:
the “leadership” is in flux with 2 main competing govs. The one supported by the west and the US of Gen Hafter shows links with Langley,VA not AQ. But remember that obama was arming AQ in Syria from Benghazi through Turkey.
babushka Said:
again, luck has nothing to do with it
the sauds installed Sisi with the promise of 13 billion to start. I presume that they gave him this promise of support on all levels to entice him to the coup. In many posts at the time I often referred to the Saudis(GCC) seeking to make the largest arab army into their Hessians in any future war with Iran and proxies. I also regularly stated that I beleived that Morsi was deposed because he was not playing full ball with the Saudis in their proxy war. The Saudis had already begun their proxy war and IMO the POD war was an Israeli GCC cooperation which target Iran elements in Gaza and Hamas. Morsi helped broker the truce but Morsi was an MB. The MB seeks direct political power whereas the wahhabi and salafi seek religious power. Saudi works with the later and is used to being above those issuing fatwas. The Saudi use the jihadis as their tools whereas the MB rises from the ranks of the religious to seek political power… it cant work. MOrsi was likely to have been discovered still working with Iran.
this following may also be interesting to Bear in terms of the sinai jihadis Iran connections:
@ Bear Klein:
In any event, Sugar Plum, what I “foolishly” believe is that there are gradations of evil, and that Mubarak is less evil than the Muslim Brotherhood.
By the way, that is also not a “trope”. It might be a “false premise”, but it is not a trope.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk
babushka Said:
Terrorist groups have been formed in countries with and without civil war.
Your statement is a common trope mentioned by those who foolishly believe these Islamic countries can be “at peace” with anything other than a tough dictator.
Bernard Ross is right. Bernie – pass me some popcorn, please.
Between Mubarak and Sisi was Morsi.
Had he not alienated the military, Egypt would now be a dagger at Israel’s throat. It is pure luck that the Muslim Brotherhood does not currently control the largest Arab army.
That combination of factors produces jihadists rather than garden variety dictators.
@ Eric R.:
looks like you get the picture rather than commiserating with those who seek stability in enemy lands.
get the popcorn… europe is the next show.
babushka Said:
not at all, Sisi is much better for Israel…Sisi cooperates on gaza and hamas.. mubarak did not. Mubarak supported state anti semitic media… Sisi appears more tolerant. but neither situation should be considered reliable or sustainable as a change of leadership changes all.
babushka Said:
I see no way that the status quo ante the current situation was better for Israel. The only bad thing is russia supportin hezbullah and iran next door… perhaps BB should have used the opportunity provided by the GCC proxies to have dealt hezzie the death blow prior to the russian entry.
babushka Said:
I prefer them killing each other rather than blowing up planes a la lockerbie….. no funding from his meat freezer
ghadaffi made the mistake in the early 2000’s of attempting to assassinate the now dead king abdullah, of Saudi, prior to his ascent to the throne…. I believe that is why he was given the humiliating death he received. I am surprised that you have fond memories of a terrorist.
@ babushka:
Right now, we have the best of all alternatives for Syria and Libya – chaos, civil war and the people killing each other rather than trying to kill Jews.
Hopefully, both wars can last, oh, about another 50,000 years.
And if you say “What about those Syrian ‘refugees’ going to Europe and persecuting Jews?”. Let’s be honest, Jews are not long for Europe anyway, the sooner they get out, the quicker the native Europeans and Muslims can get to wiping each other out in the streets. Hopefully, that war, too, lasts 50,000 years.
There is no ideal scenario, but the best case was Mubarak maintaining a stabilized Egypt. Unfortunately, Obama followed your advice by deliberately invoking disorder. There are times to be Machiavellian, but not when the status quo is favorable.
The leadership of Libya is affiliated with Al Qaeda. Given the piss poor options available in that situation, I will take (insert preferred spelling of Khadaffi here – there are 112 versions available).
American Thinker published this article today. The majority of comments supported the idea of an alliance.
ISIS has been using chemical weapons against the Kurds. I wonder if this is the same stuff the coalition could not find in most cases but the Baath party (Saadam’s people) knew where to look?
the officers at the top organize the cannon fodder to kill each other. There is something very convenient about foreign honor killers being lured to distant deserts to take drugs and kill each other far from the madding crowd….. Gosh, it almost looks like the solution to the wests honor killer problem.
chaos and disorder resulting from destabilization have been intentional agenda of intelligence services for a long time. the difficulty is to maintain it.
babushka Said:
no, no evidence of danger to Israel from libya.. and likely no funding from libya of groups dangerous to Israel from libya as obtained under ghadaffi. when your enemy is in chaos and weakened, broke and unable to attack you …. then things are better than before
babushka Said:
not luck…. the saudis got rid of Morsi and put in sisi who then started cracking down on the tunnels, hamas and the sinai tribes. since POD the GCC with Israels cooperation, IMO, have weeded out Iranian influences in Gaza making the GCC, through Qatar their only sponsor. Note contrary to narratives, that qatar had Israels approval to develop gaza before POD and again now… this is not coincidence.
babushka Said:
IS is the only reason there are negotiations today that the sunni block is a part of. Before IS the sunni block was losing, IS emerged conveniently and all the sunni gains were due to them ….. which brought in Iran hezbullah, who got not much further…. so then russia came in on their side. As a result of russia IS and sunni gains are now less…… so saudi and Turkey want to go in under the pretext of fighting their own proxy to take over IS gains before the russians arrive and before the russians have decimated the “rebels” to whom IS was handing over their gains.
babushka Said:
I want them to be in disorder, chaos, destabilized as the ideal scenario for Israel. When peace arrives Israel will again be under attack militarily and diplomatically. Insane rabid beasts must be killed, caged or kept busy killing each other. The leaders will come and go and it is likely easier for them to maintain that chaos with their insane population than to make peace with Israel.
@ Bear Klein:
yes, I had read this info before as to where they morphed out of. One must distinguish between rhetoric used for recruitment and fig leafs with what is being done
The MB elements linked to Morsi and Turkey were not team players with the saudis. The MB has a political agenda which is in conflict with the Sauds. The salafis eschew politics and work with sisi and the sauds in egypt. Remember that behind all the recruitment rhetoric that these jihadis must have money and that the money which drives and funds them must serve the interests of higher bigger and often national players.
I remember that Iran used to ship arms to hamas and IJ using the sinai bedouin tribes and I think those links, greased by money, are still strong.
Bear Klein Said:
under mubarak and morsi these tunnels flourished. I remember there were complaints that Morsi was not cooperating with the US in quelling those groups and leaving the tunnels in place but I beleive that the sauds and GCC were also complaining because they were trying to get the Iranian influence out of their sphere of influence in gaza. This is why I said there may be a Turkish funding influence because they are MB and supported MOrsi strongly. But I would still lean to the connections related to cash which I think Iran and hamas and IJ operated together in the past. Hamas is still seeking to re connect with Iran but is prevented by the GCC, sauds, qatar. If the real IS was a problem to Israel they would have already had some attacks from syria… even a couple of tokens to convince recruits that they were anti israel beyond rhetoric.Bear Klein Said:
this is an indication of funding increase… and yet IS has been losing finance sources in Syria. Anyone can call themselves anything but the sinai tribes were used by Iran to ship arms to gaza in the past. the IS in sinai presents a very different set of goals than that in syria iraq. In syria iraq they are compatible with the sunni goals against the iran block but in sinai they are attacking a sunni block proxy and they have money. This tells me Iran or Turkey, but intuition tells me Iran based on their prior use of those tribes.
The Libyan regime is now far more dangerous to everyone, including Israel. Obama replaced Mubarak with Morsi, who would have been toxic for Israel. The Israelis really lucked out when Morsi alienated the Egyptian military. Insofar as Assad is concerned, if Obama and McCain had their way Syria would now be controlled by ISIS.
My criterion for Arab leadership is modest. I expect Arab leaders to be corrupt anti-Semitic vermin. I just don’t want them to be insane.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-sinai-who-are-terrorists-ansar-bait-al-maqdis-that-claim-downing-flight-kgl9268-1527359
babushka Said:
LOL, thats a highly unlikely prognosis in any of the nations and entities mentioned. i think you might have to lower your expectations for what qualifies as bad news in the enemy lands.
Bear Klein Said:
In other words they wage war against a pre eminent sunni proxy funded by saudi and the GCC….. hmmm…. that behavior appears more demonstrative of an Iran proxy than IS who has waged war against the Iran proxies. Either side will use anyone who takes the money, its just that sunnis hire sunnis because recruitment with fatwa is easier. they cant hire shias to do their work. But shia iran has in the past hired and funded sunni groups.Bear Klein Said:
yes, it is the Iran funded elements in gaza which were attacked by Israel in POD war. the hamas, MB, sinai and Iran links are strong and I suspect due to past links that the sinai groups are funded by Iran and/or Turkey. I lean to Iran because the sinai groups are attacking sisi who leashes hamas for the GCC. Iran always seeks to heat up the pals against Israel in order to weaken saudi recruitment of sunni jihadis in other theaters. If Iran can make Israel back into enemy number one it will help them in their other theaters. I also suspect it is their money and connections in the PA west bank which incited the kidnapping of the 3 Israelis and the knifings.
Bear Klein Said:
I know this is the narrative but lets remember the links between hamas and Iran. I beleive that their “pledging” is a cover, they fight against the sunni block. Its about who pays the money and the sinai is a vast area of folks who will take money from anyone. I understand that there is a history of iran operating with the sinai groups.
babushka Said:
I dont agree that its relevant as they are all jew haters but when they are in chaos and suffering they have less ability to harm the Jews. when the chaos is over is when to worry.
Ghadaffi, Mubarak and assad have not been replaced by those more dangerous to Israel and all those areas, except for the russians are less dangerous to Israel becuase the national govs are militarily weaker. Plus those with troubles and expenses have less ability to fund and harm Jews and Israel.
Ted Belman Said:
Sisi is the best Egyptian for probably Egypt and Israel.
There are terror groups in the Sinai that Muslim Brotherhood, Bedouin, and have now pledged to IS (not Iran). Iran is Shite are their enemy.
They are very dangerous and the Egyptians are having a hard time getting them under control. They kill people in both the Sinai and mainland Egypt.
Israel and the Egyptian cooperate on fighting these people. Hamas also works with these people in the Sinai. Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood.
ghadaffi= enemy of the Jews and israel
Mubarak= anti semite enemy of the Jews and Israel
They weren’t replaced by Zionists. The Jew haters who replaced them are less rational and therefore more dangerous than their predecessors.
@ Ted Belman:
its good to have truce and calm, but it is even better when your enemies are destabilized and incapable of bringing you harm.
So what is the bad news as per my original post from the destabilization of all those who seek harm to Israel and the Jews?
Ted Belman Said:
hamas was on your borders the last 30 years bringing terror…Mubarak was no help. it only after the deposing of mubarak and morsi, the destabilization of the arab world that Israel enjoys the cooperation from sisi and qatar in leashing hamas. Mubarak was no where near sisi. Its better now for Israel dont you think? My own view is that the sinai IS is not the real IS but instead operated by Iran funding….. that it is an extension of the proxy wars.
Dont you remember how things were unstable for Israel under Morsi until the saudis replaced him?
whats the bad news?
@ bernard ross:
We will nver have Canada for a neighbour. I would love to repeat the last 30 years rather than contend with Hamas and ISIS on our borders.
@ Ted Belman:
Russia and the west had treaties but they were still considered enemies capable of attacking with WMD…… the cold war. when not hot, Israel is in a cold war with those it has treaties… right now… due to the destabilization and the resulting saudi/sisi cooperation……..cooperation is improving.
the destabilization of europe by the muslims should also bring improvement to Israel….. if not the knowledge that they will suffer what they bring on Israel.
Hence, I repeat, whats the bad news?
Ted Belman Said:
he had to, not by choice….. his choice is demonstrated by the fact that state supported anti semitism in egypt was at a zenith with regular brodacasts on state media of the protocols… the arrival of morsi demonstrates the fragility and unreliability of that treaty in that it depends on a dictator and not the population. sisi again reversed it but that is due to the saudi funding of egypt, it still again demonstrates the volatility of that treaty.Ted Belman Said:
not by choice, remember the nuclear reactor? he was a contginuing threat militarily and diplomatically as he continued to claim the golan.
Ted Belman Said:
yes, he promoted Isratine, which would destroy the jews in Israel.
You mistake, like Israel, a period of calm with viable relations… the treaties are meaningless as long as they continue to raise their children to kill Jews.
Where are the Jews in those 3 nations?
I repeat, they were enemies of the Jews and Israel. They didnt destroy Israel because they didnt have the ability.
Your argument parallels the Jordan argument because abdullah cooperates in his own interests at this time, but his population is the same. I say it is better for Israel when he is gone becuase then there will be no narrative to prevent driving the pals into Jordan… he is the major obstruction to the pals moving to jordan.
Israel must always remain in a state of readiness with them all, they are defacto enemies.
bernard ross Said:
Gadaffi never backed terrorism against Israel and he had turned over a new leaf with America and France.
Mubarak kept the treaty with Israel for 30 years.
Assad did not attack Israel since the ’73 war.
@ Ted Belman:
aside from the mentioned issues of russia needing a med base it is also hurting from the saudi induced drop in oil prices. war in oil producing areas and supply routes usually brings up the price which russia needs. turkey is one of the routes to supplying western europe whose energy supply Putin seeks to continue to restrict. the Kurds lie between the southern gulf fields and turkey. Turkey threatened russian movement through the straits and their route to North africa and african resources.
ghadaffi= enemy of the Jews and israel
Mubarak= anti semite enemy of the Jews and Israel
North africa= mostly enemies of Jews and israel
Assad= enemy of Israel and Jews and a threat to golan
Middle East= enemies of Jews and Israel
Europe= perennial enemies of Jews and enemies of Israel
In other words for the last few years we witness destabilization, chaos, suffering in the lands of the enemies of the Jews and Israel….. now what’s the bad news?