Late last night I consulted with my experts regarding the situation.
Key among them is an Arabic-speaking Israeli journalist who is in contact with the Palestinians. “You will notice,” he observed, “that all of the news about the progress being made is coming from Olmert’s office. You can relax. They can’t agree on anything.”
And indeed, my contact was totally on the mark. For today it is being reported by Khaled Abu Toameh in the Post that the Palestinians are complaining that all they’re being offered in Judea and Samaria is a “mini-state of cantons,” which was “completely unacceptable” and “provocative.” What is more, they say the US Administration is supporting the Israeli position.
Abu Toameh cites an unidentified PA official: “Today, it’s clear to us that Israel has no intention of withdrawing from all the territories that were occupied in 1967.
“If the Israelis and Americans think that they will ever find a Palestinian leader who would accept less than the 1967 borders (sic), they are living under an illusion.”
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What is most significant is this: The PA officials alluded to maps presented in negotiations by Israel in the past few weeks. “We have made it clear to both the Israelis and Americans that they should throw away these maps. No Palestinian will ever agree to the presence of settlements or Israeli soldiers in the West Bank.”
But wait! Didn’t Olmert say great progress had been made yesterday?
Not according to the PA officials, who said they were unaware of significant changes in Israel’s negotiating position and indicated that it was “premature” to speak of progress in the negotiations.
And so Olmert’s spin has been exposed. It seems he made no significant further concessions yesterday.
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And what of the American position, which seems frequently contradictory?
According to my journalist source, Bush had told Abbas that he supported the promises implicit in his letter to Sharon in 2004 regarding retention of some major settlement blocs, and that he intended to express this publicly when he came here to celebrate our 60th.
This was indeed enough to send Abbas into deep depression. I cannot explain why he smiled in yesterday’s photo, after meeting with Olmert. Could be, as has been suggested, that he knows he’s finished if Olmert’s government goes, and so he wanted to help Olmert a bit with his spin.
Could be a lot of things, including (as has also been suggested) a promise that Bush wouldn’t go public with his position, or because he voiced a host of demands to Olmert who made vague promises to consider them.
More importantly, the question is asked how this computes with regard to Rice’s statements, which are totally hard line. (As are the statements of others such as National Security Advisor Steven Hadley.) My response to this is that there is not one coherent US policy and that Rice and her cohorts are pushing their own agenda. Bush, who seemed at first to truly “get it,” has allowed himself to be led by Rice, as he has weakened politically. But on this issue, just possibly, he will come through.
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Rice, it should be noted, is sending her people out into Palestinian areas to see how the locals are doing with regard to freedom of movement on the roads and the ability to transport their goods. (She failed to mention also weapons.) She isn’t sure that Israel has done enough yet, and wants first hand evidence of improvement in the Palestinians’ quality of life.
I would bet my life that she’s not sending her people into neighboring Jewish communities to see how their quality of life is affected by the fact that they may now get their heads blown off.
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She’s pushing hard for a “memo of understanding” when Bush comes next week. According to Ha’aretz, Israeli officials who have met with her “said their impression is that she is determined to produce an achievement at almost any price…”
May she fall flat on her face.
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This still leaves the question of how much damage Olmert can do until the situation arises in which he is no longer in power. And this is a question that is fraught with complexities and technicalities.
In a worst case scenario — which seems exceedingly unlikely — if Olmert were to make concessions to Abbas that allowed them to reach an agreement before Bush arrived, it would likely be a verbal agreement as time to draft a proper written one does not exist. Verbal agreements carry no legal weight. However, this does not mean there would be no damage to us. For each time a negotiation with the Palestinians is broken off, they resume by demanding to pick up where it left off, and our negotiators are mostly without the courage to refuse to do that.
As far as a written agreement goes, the Israeli prime minister has considerable (indeed regrettable) latitude. He would be expected to bring an agreement to his government (i.e., the Cabinet). But while it is traditional to bring it to the Knesset, he is not bound to do so and what he signs becomes law without Knesset approval. There are currently efforts being made to change the law in this regard, so that it would more closely resemble US law, which calls for Senate ratification of treaties.
At present it is my understanding that Netanyahu’s recent threat to refuse to abide by any deal with the PA made by Olmert is meaningless if Olmert has signed a paper, but would be possible, were Netanyahu truly to find the stamina, if promises were verbal only.
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Whatever the law, however, there is enormous unrest within the government about the fact that Olmert is playing the negotiation cards so close to the chest. Members of his own Kadima party are incensed that he has not shared with them what is transpiring in the negotiations. It seems a bit unlikely that they would give him carte blanche on an agreement on which they had not been consulted.
Members of the opposition, meanwhile, are protesting that Olmert has no right to negotiate at all when his authority and his future as the head of state are under a cloud.
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That investigation seems to be progressing apace, and the police have indicated that it is not yet time to remove the gag on the media other than to say a foreign (American) citizen is to be questioned. They say they will fight a lifting of the blackout as this might damage the case. And still there is talk of a “significant development.”
One other legal point to be made: After the police have done their job in garnering whatever evidence exists (which is related to a period before Olmert became prime minister), it falls to Attorney General Mazuz to make the final decision regarding indictment.
In theory, if he were eager to allow Olmert to continue with negotiations, he could, legally, decide not to indict. (This would be a true worst case scenario.) But this is considered to be an unlikely outcome if the evidence is as ponderous as rumors suggest — the pressure on him to indict would be enormous.
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But it’s time to move past all of this, as Yom HaZikaron — Israeli Memorial Day — starts this evening. Here the day is immediate and painful, as people remember families and friends who have fallen in defense of the nation. Since 1860, 22,437 have fallen in defense of the Land.
I say without fear of contradiction that we have the finest defense force in the world. The stories of their selflessness and bravery are stunning. Time and time again they’ve won against odds that would have been thought impossible. I would say that Heaven was (and is) with them.
Tomorrow at 11:00 AM, a siren will sound and we will stand silently in memory of those who have fallen.
Then again at 8:00 PM another siren will sound and we will move into Yom Ha’atzmaut — Independence Day, our 60th! Already preparations for this are beginning, and flags are hung all over. How splendid to see them waving proudly in the breeze today.
More on this tomorrow.
HP, the best and only solution is we drive them out or kill all of them. That should do it for awhile.
Ladies and Gentlemen-It aint over until its over. Unlike the situation that existed post Bill Clinton presidency, all current presidential candidates are pledged to continue the pressure for a settlement.
McCain especially, having the right military credentials knows that the continued Israeli-Arab instability is damaging to America’s interests, with regard to its energy needs and in its war on terrorism. Unless Israel is more widely accepted in the region, America will be perceived to be persisting in supporting a pariah state.
Remember that prior to the Camp David agreement, between Sadat and Begin, the protaganists were practically incarcerated until there was a final and succesful resolution. Now after 9/11 and Iraq and Afghanistan failures the need for a solution is stronger than ever.
One thing you are not paying attention to is facts on the ground.
The Palis keep winning negotiations and losing territory.
Gaza is on life support and will not last in its present configuration. About 80% of Gazans (if the polls are accurate) want out. That is a sure sign of defeat.
Any agreement that Rice manages to get and any concessions Israel makes will be temporary. i.e. as soon as they start affecting Israeli security they will be rescinded by force.
Rice isn’t dumb at all. Anti-Semitic is an accurate description.
“May she fall flat on her face.”
Yeah, baby.
Some thoughts during the siren
Yom ha-Zikkaron 5768:
by Daniel Pinner
…And as the siren echoes through the calm evening air of the Samarian hills, the faces swim before my eyes. The faces of friends who did not return to base with me, the friends who will never return home. The landscape blurs in my eyes; once again I see Baruch, who was born in the Soviet Union. We were in the same platoon; I lived in Jerusalem, he lived in Beit Shemesh, and more times than I can recall, we hitchhiked home together from the Negev Desert, from the Golan, from Lebanon. Baruch (he hated being called Boris, the name that was still on his te’udat zehut, a throw-back to his unhappy past) and I often played chess together – in fact, when we had an informal platoon chess championship, he and I were the joint winners. We were level, having won two games each; the fifth one was to be the tie-breaker. Baruch will never play that fifth game, and we will be forever joint chess champions of A Platoon.
And I recall Rachamim, who I spent hours trying to teach English to. He had begun to realise how important an education was, and wanted to go back to school after the Army, to matriculate, and go on to university. He needed English, and those long patrols together were ideal for learning. We would talk in English, and then I would give him simple written assignments – sentences in Hebrew for him to translate into English; when I would find the time I would mark them. His English improved amazingly, until the day he went on patrol; the previous day I had been on the jeep, this time was his turn. He jumped on to the jeep, turned his sunburnt, rugged face to me, and called out, in his atrocious accent, “You find my paperrr on my bed. I sink I do betterrr zis time. Tell me when I getting beck.”
Those were the last words he ever said to me: he came back from that patrol in south Lebanon on a stretcher, and never recovered consciousness.
And the faces of friends who were murdered by terrorists swim before my eyes, drifting in and out of focus. The face of my friend and mentor, Rabbi Binyamin Ze’ev Kahane Hy”d and his wife Taliya Hy”d, murdered by Arab terrorists as they were driving home on a bright Sunday morning eight years ago. Amihud Hassid Hy”d, who died preventing an Arab suicide terrorist from approaching the petrol station in Ariel. Gila Hy”d, whose voice and smile are forever seared in my heart, whose soul is bound up with my soul, who was murdered at the hitch-hiking station in Jerusalem, and now waits for Mashiach in the cemetery of Eli.
Just a handful of soldiers out of 22,437 who have died defending our country, a few of the 1,634 civilians who have been murdered by Arab terrorists. This is the price of freedom. This is the price for being responsible for our own destiny.
Sixty years ago, when Israel was born in the crucible of fire, my mother z”l fought in the Gadn”a – the g’dud no’ar, the youth battalion of the Haganah. She conquered Sheikh Munis, the village today called Ramat Aviv Gimmel, home of extreme leftists like Shimon Peres, the Rabin family, Shulamit Aloni, and others who call me an “occupier” because I live in Samaria.
I think of the price of freedom, of independence. And then I think of the price of not having freedom. In the four years of the First World War, 1,500,000 Jews fought in the battlefields scattered across the world; 140,000 died. 320,000 Jews served the Austro-Hungarian Empire alone. My grandfather z”l, a pious Jew and a proud Austrian, volunteered to fight for his country, and became an officer in the Cavalry. He asked to be transferred away from the front lines when, facing the Russian trenches, he shot at an enemy soldier; in the darkness, he saw the figure convulse, and heard the dying scream, Shema Yisra’el…. Such is the price of not having our independence in our own Land.
40,000 Jews died fighting for Austria-Hungary in the First World War, and another 12,000 for Germany. A generation later, we saw how these countries repaid their loyalty. Such is the price of not having our independence in our own Land.
…And as the siren dies away, the hills of Samaria drift back into focus. The country is starting to move once again. We have paid the price of not having our independence in our own Land; for 2,000 years we paid that price.
Baruch and I will never play that final chess game; Motti and I will never learn the final chapter of Tractate Megillah together. There are friends who will never come home, who will be twenty forever. They, and those who love them, have paid in full the price for our independence in our Land.
Posted by Michelle Nevada (Michelle_Nevada@yahoo.com) at 4:27 PM
Who could have predicted that a Republican president would appoint a Secretary of State dumber and more dangerous than Madeleine Allstupid?
May Condi fall flat on her face! Absolutely right!