Peloni: An important analysis by Gen. Avivi on how the war in Gaza must proceed from here.
Analysis: Israel plans to dismantle Hamas’ military and governmental capabilities in Gaza, establish a provisional administration to prevent terrorism’s return, free hostages, control aid and maintain a military presence for lasting security
Brigadier General (res.) Amir Avivi | August 3, 2024
IDF forces operating in Gaza (Photo: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
Israel has got to move on to the next level in the Gaza arena and strive decisively to obtain the war’s objectives, namely: collapsing Hamas’ military and governmental capabilities, targeting its leaders, bringing back all the hostages and ushering in the conditions for the “Day After” in Gaza.
The high-intensity phase of the war is progressing toward the long-term “clearing” phase. However, part of Hamas’ combating force, alongside that of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and other terrorist groups, is still functioning, and vast areas in central Gaza have yet to be conquered.
Subsequently, by imposing an immediate provisional Israeli administration in the areas conquered in the coastal enclave, Israel must focus its efforts on the remaining territory and outline a clear plan for the long-term eradication of terrorism. These recommendations have been distributed by the IDSF to all Cabinet ministers and members of the Knesset.
In the next three months, operationally, the targeted effort will be specified by the military, in consultation with the political echelon, and will in particular complete the takeover of Rafah. Israel is not going to be able to accept a comprehensive deal that includes stopping the war and withdrawing its forces, or which will impose a long-term lull in the fighting.
We look to the speedy release of live hostages in exchange for humanitarian easements. Israel keeps an open door to the possibility of a hostage swap, even at the cost of a brief, temporary withholding of fire. The intelligence and combat effort to find and rescue hostages has got to continue.
Provisional Israeli adminstration to set foundation for future local civilian forces
There is no practical possibility for re-disengagement from the Gaza Strip. A provisional Israeli administration will prepare the groundwork for future local civilian Palestinian forces. To this end, Israel’s top priority will include the de-radicalization of the education system, which will ideally include non-UN regional and international players. This means cessation of the indoctrination of terrorism, antisemitism, Zionism-hating and armed struggle against Israel.
The focus will be on professional education. This will also mean the removal of UNRWA from Gaza and distribution of humanitarian aid directly by the IDF or by whichever organizations it will certify for this purpose. It will also include the option for Gazan Palestinians to voluntarily emigrate to countries willing to admit them.
Israeli unity and national cohesion paramount for rehabilitation
International pressure on Israel to work toward a cease-fire and to establish a Palestinian state is totally divorced from the Middle Eastern reality. Rewarding terrorism in the form of a Palestinian state will substantially undermine Israeli security.
The Israel Defense and Security Forum considers unity and national cohesion to be an overriding national imperative as a key factor in achieving victory in this war. This is also a fundamental condition for harnessing the public and the state organs in favor of achieving the objectives of this war. The Israel Defense and Security Forum considers spirit to be an overriding national imperative as a key factor in achieving victory in this war.
Israel must immediately impose a provisional Israeli administration throughout the Gaza Strip, particularly in areas that have already been occupied and cleared by the IDF. In the absence of such a mechanism, there will be a vacuum left behind on the ground, which will be exploited by Hamas. This will constitute a severe psychological blow to Israel, and detrimental to our advocacy efforts with the international community.
Hamas military capabilities and linked organizations must be eliminated
After almost ten months of war in the Gaza Strip, three kinds of zones have taken shape there, where each one functions differently from the civilian perspective: administration by Hamas or by its proxies; local administration; and pockets of chaos.
The war has proven that the degradation of Hamas’ military centers of power has also resulted in gradual degradation of the civilian systems that relied on it, and that Hamas’ strength was due, inter alia, to its control over the aid arriving in Gaza. This means that the elimination of Hamas’ civilian rule over Gaza requires the elimination of its military capabilities and taking over the territory for a while, while at the same time assigning responsibility for distributing the aid to those international organizations that have no link to Hamas.
Israeli military presence will remain to maintain order
Israel must maintain a full-scale military presence in the Gaza Strip, similar to the situation in the A and B areas in the West Bank, in order to continue clearing the area of Hamas pockets of resistance and to prevent the regeneration of terrorism.
Israel must continue to maintain a presence along the Netzarim Corridor and the Philadelphi Corridor in order to be in control of the Gaza Strip’s lifelines, to prevent smuggling of weaponry, and to ensure that the Gaza Strip remains demilitarized.
Solutions other than physical Israeli presence on the ground led to Hamas’ force buildup and ushered in the conditions for October 7. Therefore, no technological solutions or international forces should be exclusively relied on as only an Israeli security presence, not any Palestinian entity, prevents terrorism effectively.
Careful engagement with international aid agencies
Local Palestinian communities will run daily life in the local authorities within the Gaza Strip, similar to the way it is done in the West Bank where the Palestinian Authority is in charge of this. The release of international aid money will be conditional upon the repudiation of terrorism and compliance with the dictates and prerequisites as these will be defined by Israel and by international bodies.
The United Nations is not a preferred or desirable player to assist in rehabilitation in view of its problematic record when it comes to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, its anti-Israel bias and the way its systems are harnessed to produce false propaganda.
Having reread the article and thought about the underlying problems, I think this issue has no substantial solution. Any permanent cease-fire will depend on the good will of both sides. However, the record so far is clear: Israel would be happy to stop fighting, go home and live in peace with her neighbors, but according to statements from Hamas and the Gazan population, they would be happy to repeat Oct 7 over and over. This being the case, Israel cannot afford to slacken its surveillance of the local population.
Israel does not have many choices:
1. Leave the Gazans to look after themselves, including distribution of foreign aid,
buying and providing water, electricity, food, fuel and so on. Israel will no longer
provide the option of entering Israel to work or do business.
2. Take care of the Gazans in detail, providing them with all their needs when it is
paid for. This means Israeli feet/boots on the ground for the foreseeable future.
3. Find a willing Arab country such as Egypt, that would be willing to take on the
responsibility for the Gaza Strip. This, the Egyptians have previously rejected.
4. Allow some other country that loves Palestinians (Scandinavia for example?) to
administrate the Gaza Strip.
There may be some other options that are incompatible with peace, such as Iranian control of the Strip or some other country like China getting involved. For China or Russia, this would provide a sea-port in the Mediterranean, but I doubt other countries would be happy…
The most likely option is #2 above, where the international community would not only expect but require Israel to pay the bill too. This is a non-starter. This would add up to the victim paying the aggressor and would immediately lead to the previous situation of relentless attacks on Israel and Israeli personell on the ground and no sign of peace. Also, the international community would continue for ever to harp on about Israeli occupation.
As I said in the opening statement, this issue has no reasonable solution, where that word reasonable has turned up yet again.
I welcome your comments and suggestions.
I agree with dreuveni. With more tunnels found, the hostages could be anywhere beyond Sinai.
Imperative to win the war before December.
So now that we have seen the news and know that there are more tunnels to be found leading into the Sinai peninsula, how can we even guess where the hostages that are still alive (not to speak of the dead) are being kept? It could be anywhere.
So now is the time to up, yet again, the pressure on Netanyahu to get the hostages back irrelevant of the cost. Even a price of 1 for 1 means that a terrorist that is able and willing to do a repeat of Oct 7 would come free, and I very much doubt that Israel would be able to get this rate of exchange – more like 1000 for 1.
We need to get our heads screwed back on and win this war decisively even if that includes collateral damage to the so-called civil population. Applying more pressure to Netanyahu will not get across the finishing line. It will only get us to the bell sounding the next round.