By Ted Belman
Today, with Netanyahu at his side, President Trump said
“Tomorrow at 12 o’clock, EST, we’re going to show a plan, it’s been worked on by everybody. And we’ll see whether or not it catches hold. If it does, that would be great. And if it doesn’t, we’re going to have to live with that too. But I think that it might have a chance.”
Sitting with Netanyahu in the Oval Office afterwards, Trump predicted that the Palestinians will “ultimately” come round to giving their support. “They probably won’t want it initially. I think in the end they will,” he said. “I think in the end they’re going to want it. It’s very good for them. In fact, it’s overly good to them. So we’ll see what happens. Now without them, we don’t do the deal. And that’s okay.”
If no peace deal can be achieved, he said, “life goes on.”
Somehow this doesn’t sound like Trump. I can not believe, considering the effort invested by the Trump team for almost three years to deliver the Deal of the Century, that this is the end result. He even went so far as to suggest yesterday that he won’t pressure any one to accept it. That is up to the parties themselves to make it happen.
Its no excuse to argue, what’s offered to the Arabs is not really a state because its enough of a state to deliver a death by a thousand cuts.
Yet the deal about to be tabled doesn’t sound remotely like he wants to win. So I don’t believe him.
Trump wants to win in every thing he undertakes. I can’t believe that this is his promised Deal of the Century.
I think he has offered, not a Two-State solution but a Two Step Solution. This is just the first step.
After the Ottoman Empire fell apart, the British decided to chop of the greatest part of it for themselves. The British Mandate to establish “national home for the Jewish people” was the greatest tool to achieve this. There was also the French Mandate of which Lawrence of Arabia said “We are going to push the French out of the Middle East” (later on, he put it much more rudely).
The British succeeded in pushing out the French but with the Jews the “pushing out” proved to be much more difficult. First, they chopped off 78% of the Mandate (using an ambiguous sentence in the agreement) to create Jordan and Iraq, then they tried to make the life of the Palestinian Jews hell on the remaining 22% of the territory while bringing in as many Arabs as possible. In 1939 they decided to prevent the European Jews from moving to their future “national home” so most of them would perish in Europe.
What I don’t understand is why Israel keeps playing the “peace process” game the sole purpose of which is to squeeze the Jewish population out of the remaining 22% of the Mandatory area?
Why don’t they just stand up in the UN, say there publicly what I have written here, and request to be left alone on their 22% half of which is desert anyway (the Arabs can move next door to Jordan)?
If this “peace process” game continues, the Arabs will be getting more and more land piecemeal, the terror will never stop, and everyone can imagine what will happen next.
All those “peace processes” and “painful concessions” (only by Israel) are a slow Jewish suicide (or murder, or both).
The quoted comment below is correct and in the next four years the Pal-Arab leaders will not agree to the Trump Peace Plan and so they will have NO Pal State west of the Jordan River as they will continue to refuse to negotiate with Israel:
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
I don’t think that Bear is analyzing the Plan… He’s just very briefly noting down some of the salient points that make it worth having, for Israel . That’s not an analysis.
I agree with the last couple of sentences that Bear posted just above where he mentions credit for Kushner.. I feel he’s exactly on the mark there. .
@ Bear Klein:
I think that most -if not all- of the credit here should be given to Iran, whose threat against the Arab states has changed their attitudes VERY suddenly. over the past few years… Have you not noticed that as their threat became more active, the Arab States became more receptive to congress with Israel, the very close friend and ally of the US, with whom they were friendly towards anyway, because the US protected them due to their oil. Iran is no real threat to the US, but it is to Israel.
Almost in “lock-step”; as the threat grew, their recognition of Israel increased…My opinion anyway.
Give Trump and Kushner credit:
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, UAE welcome Trump peace plan
“The Kingdom reiterates its support for all efforts aimed at reaching a just and comprehensive resolution to the Palestinian cause,” said the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
This is a real change. Naturally it does not hurt that Israel has the most aggressive military against the common enemy of Iran. The Pals are just a pain to these Arabs and not respected and viewed with suspicion.
Turks and Jordan came out strongly against the plan.
The Trump plan would be a good and reasonable one if there was a Palestinian leadership that sincerely wanted to live in peace with Israel and accepted Israel’s legititimacy as a Jewish state. But of course that is not the case and is unlikely to be, at least for the forseeable future. Maybe in 50-100 years if Israel survives that long. The plan does have some propaganda value for Israel, however, since reasonable people may see it as a fair compromise between Israel and the Palestinians, and evidence that viable alternatives to the Arab League cum “Quartet” plan do exist that could lead to a viable Palestinian state for most Arabs who call themselves Palestinians, while doing less harm to Israel. Also, it may give the Israeli government more legitimacy at home, and perhaps even in the U.S. if Trump succeeds in remaining in office, if Israel annexes some Judea-Samaria territory that is necessary to Israel’s security, and allows more building in the settlements.
I agree with Bear’s analysis of the plan.
Trump plan positives it changes parameters of:
Pal Right of Return
Jerusalem
Jordan Valley as Israel’s Eastern Border
Puts onus on Pals to stop terrorism & funding it if they want a State
Allows Israelis to apply sovereignty to all “Settlements” Plus Jordan Valley
Allows Israelis to keep building per their law in all existing settlements plus E1 (Maleh Adumim)
Puts in Writing a Demand of de-militarized Pal State if they want to be a state
Demands Hamas (& Gaza) demilitarize and turn in weapons + come under control of PA before a state would be in consideration:
Requires Pals to agree to a Jewish State before Pal Statehood
Requires Pals to agree to Israeli Security in all land west of the Jordan River
Israeli sovereignty over all settlements plus Jordan Valley will recognized as soon as Israel applies its civil law.
Plan will not bring about peace unless Pal-Arabs turn into Finns in next 4 years as they would have to recognize that the plan would grant them a better life by agreeing to live as peaceful neighbors to the Jewish State of Israel. They could create Costa Rica in the Middle-East. Instead so far we have 1000 Abbas NOes and Hamas sitting in the same room with Fatah to plan how many different verbal or violent ways they can so NO!
Ted, you are right, Trump’s plan is a two step solution but the second step is the possibility of a Palestinian State in 80% of Judea and Samaria. There is nothing good about that.
The only good thing about the Trump plan is that it gives cover to the Israelis annexing 20% of Judea and Samaria today without having to give anything up.
You’re an optimist. This isn’t a Two-Step solution. It’s One-and-Done. Meaning DONE FOR.
I’m afraid this sounds like more of Yasser Arafat’s “salami slicing” of the Jewish State until the Islamic terrorists of Hamas, and the PLO/Fatah finally get what they’ve always declared was theirs “Palestine from the river (Jordan) to the sea (Mediterranean)”
Is it really true that the Mandate for Palestine 1922, in which no Arabs (Palestinian or otherwise) were given an inch of territory west of the Jordan River, has been ripped up and slung in the bin?
So much for the Jewish Homeland given to the Jewish People, under International Law, if it is now going to be divided and given to Arab terrorists who have been carrying out attacks on Israeli civilians and security personnel for almost 100 years.
And even if the so called Palestinians eventually get their State established in Judea & Samaria and Gaza, does anybody imagine for one minute that it will bring peace to Israel? Not a chance. It will only encourage them to increase their internecine terror attacks until the Mandated territory is entirely in their hands.
We all saw what happened when Israel disengaged from the Gaza Strip in 2005 — it immediately turned into a rocket-launching pad from which Israeli towns, villages, shopping centers, schools, hospitals, and farms have all been the target of umpteen thousands of rocket attacks ever since and they are ongoing today.