T. Belman. This is why Barak must go. Nobody invaded S. Africa. If Iran can withstand sanctions, even moreso Israel. Israel has nothing to lose by giving the world the middle finger. The worse that can happen is we will be forced to accept the Saudi Plan and that’s all we are being offered now. Go for it.
“We are facing a political tsunami most of the public isn’t unaware of,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak said during a speech at the International Security Studies Institute in Tel Aviv on Sunday.
“There is an international movement which will recognize a Palestinian state on 1967 borders. It would be wrong to ignore this tsunami,” Barak said. According to the defense minister, this is scheduled to happen before September.
“Israel’s de-legitimization is in sight. It’s very dangerous and requires action,” Barak stated. He warned against an attempt to push Israel into the same corner South Africa once occupied.
“A political initiative will minimize the chances along the way. We have not tried to put all core issues on the table in the past two years. Israel must say it is ready to discuss security borders, refugees and Jerusalem and it will get a chance. If it fails, responsibility will be placed on the other side.”
Barak reiterated his call to Tzipi Livni and Kadima to join the government and said elections will not help Israel in the current state. “One must choose what’s good for Israel, not what’s popular,” Barak said. “We must all overcome personal or political egos and act as one. The needed strategy is a political initiative with security guarantees. ”
Israel is an island of stability, Barak said referring to recent Arab unrest. “I don’t think we face an immediate threat of conflict with the Egyptians,” he estimated. “The peace treaty is very important to Egypt and its army. We may see Sinai less controlled which may cause moderate trouble.”
Barak said the public must understand Israel can find itself alone. “Those who can’t defend themselves get no favors.”
I’m not an economist. So far as I know, neither is Yamit, Ted, or Ehud Barak.
I do have an MBA, for whatever that is worth. So, I’ve had some training in economics, including international business. I probably know more about these things than Neville Carter Hussein Obama, but that is not saying much.
I can’t say how well Israel would withstand sanctions. But I don’t think it takes a Nobel Prize in economics to see that they’ll hurt, and they’ll hurt bad. That would be true for any relatively small country that depends a lot on foreign trade, no matter how smart or advanced.
But unlike Ehud Barak, I think from where things stand now, no matter how well or not so well Israel can stand them, I see sanctions as practically inevitable. I believe Mr. Barak is engaging in delusional, wishful thinking if he still thinks they can be completely avoided. The ony question remaining is exactly when they will occur, and how long they will be imposed. Not whether they will happen. They will.
That was practically guaranteed the day NCHO was elected. That is what he has intended from day one, unless Israel unquestioningly agreed to commit slow suicide by accepting the Saudi plan completely. Absent that, the NCHO plan all along has been to set Israel up like a bowling pin.
Israel’s moral, historical, legal, and logical “ace in the hole” in terms of rebutting the pressure to concede to the PA is the recognition issue. That has been tried, and in a world not utterly corrupted by petrodollars and left wing cowardice and cynicism, that should have sufficed. It should still be employed today, but the Palestinians will never do this, and what is more, NCHO, the EU, China, Russia, and the UN don’t give a good G-d damn. The only purpose of employing this argument now – besides the fact that it is right and makes perfect sense – is to buy a little time and a little public support outside of Israel, but that is all it is going to get Israel for the time being.
So, for now, Israel’s only viable diplomatic strategy is to refuse to negotiate unless the PA formally recognizes Israel as a Jewish state, and amends the PNC accordingly. This is a perfectly reasonable condition, that will be perfectly ignored by the world community as “led” by NCHO and his fellow scumbags in the UN, the Gulf Arabs pulling the strings all along.
There will be no agreement, and Israel will be automatically blamed. I don’t think even Ehud Barak is going to sign an agreement without recognition, and he isn’t going to get that, so no matter what concessions he tentatively offers, there isn’t going to be an agreement, and Israel will be blamed no matter what. I am incredulous that he apparently doesn’t see this, but this proves once again that human powers of rationalization are indeed very, very powerful.
Against this backdrop, at some point – probably this fall – the PA will unilaterally declare their state on pre-67 borders, backed by NCHO and the UN, who will say they are left with “no choice” but to back the PA due to Israeli “intransigence”.
Then, when Israel refuses to immediately evacuate all communities east of the Green Line, the PA initiates Intifada Three, backed by their U.S.-equipped and trained “Dayton’s Army”.
There will be a great big bloodbath, and CNN, Al Jazeera, etc., will all be invited to the “party”. Of course, the IDF will win the shootout, but that is not the point. The PA will dutifully and grandly play their “cannon fodder” role as bloody casaulties of the Big Bad Israeli Bully before the cable TV cameras. That is the point of the exercise.
So that……
As “punishment” for her “atrocities” against the “poor Palestinian underdogs”, the UNSC will slap a Chapter 7 UNSCR on Israel, to include rigid economic sanctions, a la South Africa.
From here, it is anybody’s guess how this all plays out. My “crystal ball” gets foggy at this point.
There are several scenarios.
– The U.S. may elect a pro-Israel Republican in 2012 who will repudiate NCHO’s support of this UN action, and try to restore some semblance of “normalcy” to U.S.-Israel relations. They will be permanently fractured, of course, unless the U.S. – at a minimum – moves the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. So, Israel has to “tough it out” for a year and a half or so until this situation emerges.
– The Arabs, smelling blood, on the heels of the UNSCR against Israel, attack. They may really be that stupid (after all, impoverished Egypt just stopped selling gas to Israel…I guess the starving slobs there didn’t need the money anyway…). A cornered Israel with nothing to lose and a short time window to win due to an embargo on apare parts and munitions will kick major butt.
– The combination of #1 and #2 above – in reverse order, of course – is my best-case scenario for the next two years.
– But maybe the Arabs are not quite that stupid, and decide to let sanctions take their toll. How effective this strategy may be depends on how long the sanctions can hold. If Obama is re-elected, or if the U.S. elects the anti-Semite Ron Paul, they’ll last that much longer.
What a cornered Israel will do during a second Obama term or a first Ron Paul term is hard to tell. Maybe Yamit can take over making predictions from here.
Bottom line: I agree with Ted that Israel might as well tell Obama & Co. to go screw themselves, since the worst case scenario is that Israel has to accept the Saudi plan in the end, so she might as well put up a good fight first and see what happens.
There are some other “wild cards” that may pop up along the way, over the next couple of years.
– Israeli strike on Iran and consequences (?)
– Hamas takes over PA-ruled parts of J&S, and Israel annexes the same with requisite firefight (?) Can Israel then turnabout the media assault by easily portraying Hamas-dominated J&S as analogous to Taliban-dominated Ontario next to U.S.?
– Saudi monarchy falls to Al-Queda/Taliban style regime (?)…How does this affect oil prices, perceptions of erstwhile “moderate Western Arab ally” Saudia vis-a-vis Israel in the eyes of Western publics? Do the checks stop coming to bribe cable news, NYT, Harvard, etc., etc., to keep bashing Israel? What will happen to John Mearsheimer’s 401(K)? Will the editorial staff at the BBC, The Guardian, and the NYT still be able to afford their summer homes?
Ultimate bottom line: Ehud Barak is absolutely dreaming if he thinks giving away more Israeli candy can stave off the intended “end game” being orchestrated by Saudia and her puppets (e.g., Obama) and their cannon fodder (e.g., the PA).
Just based on his loose grip on reality, Ehud ought to be fired….and committed to an asylum.
Thank you Ted. Now that I get the drift of the comments, I can say it is true that the world did not invade South Africa, they didn’t have to. Now every dogsbody can vote and only a few benefit – by plundering state coffers. So, in many respects Jews and Afrikaners are in the same boat albeit for different reasons, and that is why so many of us identify with Israel. Bear in mind the ANC government is as anti-Israel as the worst.
You might be shocked by what I am about to say, but please understand there were reasons why black people were not allowed to vote before 1994.
Our Afrikaner leaders capitulated and were forced into the corner as Ehud Barak has said but mostly only because they trusted Nelson Mandela and believed he would truly bring about a new South Africa. Sorry to burst the Mandela bubble but there you have it. Now, in that corner, my future is determined mostly by the votes of lazy, corrupt, lawless, savage people. Amongst other atrocities, my people are being murdered at an alarming rate on their farms (12 since December 2010, more than 3,000 since “democracy”) because black people are angry that they were and still are promised all sorts of things in lieu for their votes and they believe it is our fault that these promises stay unfulfilled. Racism here in South Africa is way worse than it ever was before and the hatred between black and white is on par with the hatred between Jews and Muslims.
Barakat is frightenned that the world will force Israel to capitulate just as it did with S. Africa through deligitimation and sanctions.
I simply pointed out that it didn’t invade S Africa and it won’t invade us. I also said that Israel can withstand sanctions so we should defy the world.
Ted, I’m not sure I understand Ehud Barak’s warning ” He warned against an attempt to push Israel into the same corner South Africa once occupied” and your comment “Nobody invaded S. Africa”.
Please explain what was meant, thanks Sonia, South Africa
Barak is either an arch traitor-agent for enemies of Israel or is totally stupid. He was the PM who gave Arafat Israeli Gas find off of Gaza. PG holds the leases but no buyers as Gaza too small and Israel bought Egyptian, now we don’t need Egypt’s either, we have Tamar field for that.
Leaders discuss Leviathan exports through Cyprus
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met this morning at his office in Jerusalem with Cypriot president Demetris Christofias.
14 March 11 18:15, Globes’ correspondent
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met this morning at his office in Jerusalem with Cypriot president Demetris Christofias. Among the items discussed was the possibility of exporting the natural gas from the Leviathan reserve to Europe, through Cyprus.
The Prime Minister’s office said, “During the course of the meeting, the sides discussed expanding the cooperation between the two countries, and included in that is the widening of tourism ties and establishing a working group to examine the possibility of transferring the gas from “Leviathan” to Cyprus, and from there to markets in Europe.”
The Leviathan reserve has about 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, twice the amount in Tamar. Since Tamar itself is big enough to supply Israel’s natural gas needs for decades, most of the natural gas at Leviathan will be aimed toward export.
Ted can you release my comment blocked by your spammer
The only Tsunami I see in the near future is economic.
Japan the 3rd largest world economy will in all probability be the match to sink the American and EU economies.
Japan holds enormous American government debt (US$882.3 billion of Treasuries at the year-end) and will want those hundreds of billions of dollars back, right now, to begin rebuilding its infrastructure and industry; that means America will have to substantially increase interest rates to get foreigners to buy enough treasuries to pay out the Japanese, or face the equivalent of foreclosure. When those interest rates jump, so will U.S. loan and mortgage rates — something tens of millions of Americans with mortgages, credit card debt and other bills cannot afford to pay. This is American Ponzi scheme at it’s best and every Bernie Madoff will have have his day.
This Japan earthquake will hit us with a financial tsunami that may cripple America for years and decades to come. If Japan does cash in it’s US treasuries then QE 3 is a real possibility in the fall & the US$ takes another step down.
This is certainly the worst thing that can happen in Japan at the worst time,” Roubini told Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown” in London today. “There will be fiscal stimulus to reconstruct but Japan already has a budget deficit of close to 10 percent of” gross domestic product and an aging population.
By the end of 2011 the worlds economies especially that of EU and America will be so dire I doubt that anyone would give a damn about sanctiona against Israel. Israel imports of almost 100 billion a year in a global economic depression is leverage against embargoes or boycotts. Israel should strengthen our economic base and build up our foreign currency and gold reserves in the current period.
The only political tsunami Barak is going to see os from the citizens of this country against him and his ilk if he tries to weaken us further.
Was responsibility laid on the other side after we withdrew unilaterally from Gaza and they fired rockets at us for 2 years? Was responsibility laid at the other side when hizbullah kidnapped our soldiers and rained missiles on us? Wake up you fool of a man – we already are alone. Stop trying to weaken us further. Hashem help us, unify us against these pitiful leaders.
The only Tsunami I see is Ehud Barak. He is the biggest threat to the State of Israel since the Yom Kippur War.