I have been getting reports that it has claimed 30,000 deaths already.
It is alleged to be a man made vires. US Military is alledgedly treating it like a biological weapon.
Feel free to posts links and comments on the threat so that we are up to date on the threat.
I just received this email;
Dr. Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College of London and director of J-IDEA, the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, estimates that the official numbers released by China of less than 30,000 in total infectious cases are far too low.
His organization calculates the true infection rate is over 50,000 people PER DAY!!
Meanwhile, the contrast between what we’re told by the various world government and what we’re seeing them do continues to widen.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
I appreciate the prayers, Alex.
According to the Jewish Press, the Chief Rabbi of the Israeli city of Tsfat is led a prayer meeting in that town to pray for the people of China to be savad from the coronavirus. If nothing else, demonstrates that most religious Jews are not hostile to people of other races and faiths, but quite the contrary want to do whatever they can to help them when they are in trouble, even if it is only praying for them.
However, some Orthodoz Jews take a more active approach. I know that there is an organization of Orthodox Jews that travel all around the world to help people who have been victims of natural disasters, such as typhoons, floods, etc. Most of the people they help are not Jewish, and live in countries where there are few or no Jews, such as Taiwan and Mozambique. I don’t know if this group has sent people to China yet.
Israel often says humanitarian teams to help people who are suffering as a result of natural disasters or plagues. I read somewhere that the Israel government has already offered to send a medical team to China to help the Chinese defeat the virus. I don’t know if the Chinese government has accepted this offer.
I am prroud that many of my fellow Jews care about suffering people throughout the world, and try their best to help them.
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/global/china/tsfat-chief-rabbi-to-lead-prayer-at-the-kotel-for-chinas-coronavirus-victims/2020/02/14/
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Yes, Adam. I certainly hope we will see an end to this beast. I recaculated the possible mortality rate at about 4%; but even this is highly suspicious. My method was to divide the total deaths two weeks ago (around 300) by the total of those deaths and the current number of “recovered” cases from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
My theory is that cases aren’t described as “treated” until two weeks after symptoms cease. Unfortunately, Chinese official data is good for sh_t:
“Extrapolating the number of infections aboard a sealed environment like the Diamond Princess cruise ship currently quarantined in Japan, Su said Wuhan, also a quarantined environment, should be seeing an infection rate of around five percent, which would add up to 500,000 people…
“Citizen journalist Chen Qiushi, who is currently incommunicado, believed detained, reported that he had followed one Wuhan patient whose X-rays showed ground glass opacification in both lungs, a key indicator of pneumonia through his medical appointments on Jan. 29. The patient was eventually refused a test for COVID-19 due to the shortage of test kits, and turned away without medical care.”
— https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-cases-02132020131455.html
More disturbing, from my point of view, is that the virus is starting to manifest in large numbers in the provinces other than Hubei:
https://thewuhanvirus.com/
The hardest-hit province outside Hubei is Guangdong, where my daughter’s family and in-laws live. 1,241 cases are “confirmed” there (i.e. tested positive for the virus AND chest x-ray evidence of pneumonia), so you know the real number is much higher.
Meanwhile, the virus keeps getting closer to Israel:
“Coronavirus spreads to Africa with Egypt reporting first confirmed case”
also,
“The head of the World Health Organization said Friday that the U.N. agency wanted more information from China about how and when more than 1,700 health care workers in the country became infected with the new coronavirus illness and how the country is tabulating the number of cases of the disease in the country.”
— https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-china-outbreak-death-toll-infections-cruise-ship-latest-updates-2020-02-14/
US health officials predict that this coronavirus will still be with us a year from now.
@ Michael S: My warmest best wishes for your children and grandchildren.
If there have been no new cases of SARS since 2004, it offers us hope that this new virus, too, will “burn itself out” in a year or two.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Hi, Adam. I just looked at my own figures. I somehow thought that today was the 23rd; but it’s the 13th! That would be a 10-day lag between the peak in infected people increments and those of the dying people.. That matches well, since the incubation time of the virus was said to be about 10 days. It may have been jus coincidence, though. One commentator noticed that from Jan. 23 to Feb. 3, the increases of reorted cases corresponded to the government’s ability to screen people for the virus. On Feb. 24, they stopped reporting the “confirmed” cases this way, so the previous exponential growth (the increase of the increases) became a straight-line growth, giving the appearance that the virus’ spread had abated. It was typical Chinese Communist skullduggery — and you can bet it pisses me off. Xi is playing games with peoples’ lives, all to make himself look good. As a result, I cannot get good estimates of the spread of the virus; but I have to assume it is worse than reported.
My grandchildren, meanwhile, are as sweet and beautiful as I’ve ever seen them. God, help them.
Concerning your first post, “crony capitalism and “state capture,” in which the relatives of senior officials enrich themselves at the public’s expense” describes Red China well. Add to that, collaboration between the police and the Triad gangs, and partnerships with globalists from America and around the world, and you have a big Mob instead of a country.
Concerning contagion, I don’t think this corona virus can be compared with the common flu. If it could, we would all be hunkered down in our homes, and wouldn’t go outdoors without masks. These are extreme measures; as Buzz said, the scene outside is downright dystopian.
The quarantines and restrictions are temporary measures; and until a cure had been found, they are all the government can do. This virus is very similar to SARS. That virus also has no antidote; the treatment for it is:
“Many public health interventions were made to try to control the spread of the disease, which is mainly spread through respiratory droplets in the air. These interventions included earlier detection of the disease; isolation of people who are infected; droplet and contact precautions; and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE), including masks and isolation gowns.[9] A screening process was also put in place at airports to monitor air travel to and from affected countries. Although no cases have been identified since 2004, the CDC is still working to make federal and local rapid response guidelines and recommendations in the event of a reappearance of the virus”
— https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome
If the Hu regime were not so repressive, those doctors who reported the disease in early January would have been heeded instead of jailed. Hu is blaming the local officials; but they were doing what they did because of fear of repirsal from above.
Michael, your analogy to cars that are kept in their garages strikes me as not completely accurate. After all, most countries , including the United States, do allow people to travel anywhere even though they may have familiar, “ordinary” contageous diseases. Examples are “ordinary” “common flu” which takes a heavy death toll in the United States every year. Pneumonia is another example of disease that is contageous and causes many deaths every year, but people are permitted to travel with it. In the United States, even people suffering from tuberculosis, a very deadly disease, are not usually quarantined and are permitted to travel. All of these infectious diseases do cause many deaths a year. And yet the over-all death rate from infectious illnesses has continued to drop. I think this will happen to the coronavirus eventually as well.
I am an ignorant layman with little knowledge of medicine. Still, it seems to me that keeping people who have not shown any symptoms cooped up in the same place with other people who are suffering from serious infections, which is what China and several other countries are doing, increases rather than decreases the likelihood of more people being infected. And since you can’t realistically keep people confined to one town or even one province forever, this practice must surely increase rather than decrease the number of “carriers” to other areas over the long term. That is just my common-sense opinion from someone with no expertise in contageous diseases.
@ Michael S: Michael, I am unfamiliar with the SCO. What is it?
I agree that in the long run a dictatorship and a police state is not compatible with a prosperous and peaceful country.
China has permitted a considerable amount of private enterprise since roughly 1980 when Teng Hsiao-ping began to “take the capitalist road,” as his internal enemies within the Communist Party put it. But capitalism, when it is in a police state, quickly devloves into a crony capitalism, with massive corruption, and that has happened in China. In the long run, crony capitalism and “state capture,” in which the relatives of senior officials enrich themselves at the public’s expense, is not viable.
Here are some bar graphs, which put yesterday’s blip in perspective:
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/new%20cases.png?itok=5N2OcRuR
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/deaths_0.png?itok=nDp6OTR_
It appears that the spikes in reported infections and deaths may have been artifects of reporting and bookkeeping. Nevertheless, the trend continues upward for both graphs. Since the virus has been reported for three weeks, and has not peaked yet, we can reasonably expect it to continue for another three weeks under current conditions of quarantine, etc. There still is no cure or vaccine for the viral infection.
Discarding yesterday’s peaks as outliers, cases seem to have peaked on 4 Feb. and deaths seem to have not peaked yet on 13 Feb. If they peak tomorrow, that will show a 20-day lag time. The mortality figure should be (deaths almost-peak on 23 Feb.) divided by (case almost-peak on 3 Feb.), or about 115/3200 = 3.6%. That’s more optimistic than what I’ve been figuring so far; but the spikiness of the curves make estimating difficult. I would expect about 5,000 to 10,000 deaths total, and a return to semi-normalcy no sooner than early – to mid – March.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Hi, Adam. You noted,
“the annual death toll in the United States from automobile accidents, homicides and suicides all vastly exceed the death toll from coronavirus in China.”
This is true, but only because such extreme measures are in place in China, to slow the disease’s spread. It would more fairly be compared to what the auto accident rate would be in the US if our cars were kept in garages and hardly ever used. As for the epidemiologists’ “2%” figure, they are assuming that all the deaths occur as soon as the victim is diagnosed with the disease. This does not reflect reality. We are already at probably over 1,400 dead. With the current average of over 100 new deaths per day, we will certainly see thousands dead in the days and weeks ahead; and if the lifting of travel bans leads to new blooms around China and the world, even more will sicken and die.
China has been going downhill, ever since Xi assumed power. Single party rule, and control of the economy without regard to free-market principles have turned the boom of the 2000’s into a real bust. Meanwhile, personal freedoms are increasingly being attacked. The sad history of dictatorships like China, is that the more they dig themselves into a hole, the more likely they are to engage in aggressive foreign policy. Similar things have been happening in Russia, Iran and Turkey. — the first two of which are allies of China through the SCO.
@ Michael S: My very best wishes and prayers for your grandchildren, Michael.
I read in an English-language Hong Kong newspaper that the reason for the revised figures is that Chinese doctors have now developed a more sophisticated test for the virus that allows for earlier detection and more cases being detected.
Some epidemiologists say they while the total number of infected people is probably much higher than official Chinese and other reports suggest, most people infected have only mild symptoms and quickly recover. Many don’t even know that they were infected. According to these epidemiologists, that likely death toll is likely to include only about 2 per cent of the those who develop serious, not mild symptoms. That will mean that probably the total world-wide death toll with be fairly small. That at any rate is the opinion of some but by no means all epidemiologists.
It should be pointed out that the annual death toll in the United States from automobile accidents, homicides and suicides all vastly exceed the death toll from coronavirus in China. So does the death toll from more “familiar” illnesses like heart disease, cancer, and pneumonia. Even “ordinary” influenza strains cause some deaths every year. It therefore seems that the widespread panic over the coronavirus in China and everywhere else is probably unwarrented and unhelpful.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
I’m in the US. I think you are too. My grandchildren, obviously, live in China. The latest toll from the virus is:
Infected 60,377 (+14,923)
Deaths 1,362 (+247)
Countries / Regions affected 28
— https://thewuhanvirus.com/
This thing bears monitoring. There was a 22% rise in reported deaths in just one day. Did Chairman Xi just discover a bunch of bodies? Assuming a 10-day lag from reported infection to reported death, I reckon the mortality rate at 8%. If we assume that the epidemic is at its peak (i.e. if we assume it will not suddenly bloom in another place), we can guess a final tally of 120,000 infected — which means a final death toll of 9,600 — about 12x as bad as SARS. Just a few days ago, I guestimated it would end up at 7,500 deaths. I was over-optimistic.
@ Buzz of the Orient:
“One thing. You said you were a “goy” yet you are familiar with Judaism – can you explain?”
There’s nothing secret about Judaism.
@ Michael S:
Hi Michael,
As you probably know I have no connection with Facebook, Twitter, Google, YouTube, etc. and I really don’t care if clandestine people know how much water and electricity we use. I do not put any banking or credit card info on the internet and I do not do internet banking and I pay cash and don’t use a smartphone. As I’ve said, my identity is a pseudonym that is identical on the NewsTalkers (NT( which is run by a Jewish lady in NYC who is an accountant and teacher. It is a small site that may have hundreds of members but perhaps less than 100 are active. I was previously a member of Newsvine, a much larger site that is now defunct, and many of the members, including Perrie who runs NT were members there. She has some ads on her site which almost covers her expenses of running it, and members pay nothing. I spend most of my time there where I have posted many photo essays of China – I have taken thousands of photos here over the more than 13 years from many of the interesting places in China, and besides the “Light of the Nations” group I started and administer I also administer a movie group, a travel group, and a book group. I am not the least bit concerned that what I’ve put over the internet could cause me difficulty, but then maybe I’m just not a paranoid person.
One thing. You said you were a “goy” yet you are familiar with Judaism – can you explain?
@ Michael S: Michael, what country do you live in?
Hi, Buzz.
Nothing is really “kept personal” on the Internet anymore. We all live in glass houses now. You might think nobody but you knows or cares when you go to the toilet; but your water usage is on the Cloud, real-time, as is your electrical usage (letting any hack know whether or not you are at home and awake). All your business transactions can be tracked. You leave a “fingerprint” by anything that shows you as different from “John Q. Public” — your medical history, your opinions (viz Israpundit), who your friends and loved ones are (Facebook, etc.). It’s all literally for sale to the highest bidder; and state entities can bid very high. As a US TV show used to say,
“Smile! You’re on Candid Camera!”
I posted the coronavirus information, so we can focus on useful information that might help us all. People around the world are afraid of 2019-nCoV, mainly because there is so much about it that they don’t understand. Even in Israel, there are two types of people: 1. those who know what’s going on, or at least know they don’t know, and 2. those who should know but don’t — especially those who think they know but don’t.
The coronavirus directly impacts my family, as it also directly impacts you; but in my case, it’s only one of many things I pray for. There have been many deaths in my family this year. I went to visit my sister last year twice, and attended funerals both times, for members of her immediate family. I also visited an old friend while there, only to learn that he had just been surprized to learn he had terminal cancer. He died only a couple of months later; and when I learned the date of his memorial service, I also learned that my sister, who had lost her husband in the Spring, had just lost her son. While I was pondering these things, her grandson died. Close friends are in prison; a mutual friend is being held captive by terrorists in Africa; the list goes on and on.
A couple of weeks ago, I was pondering these things in prayer; and I got the impression that in certain ways, this is a lot like Auschwitz: We have all we can do, to live day to day, and to make our lives as “normal” as possible. But very real and present danger lurks all around us, which we need to be aware of; and if it doesn’t strike us, it will strike someone dear to us.
You said that what happens in China has very little bearing on what’s happening in Israel right now. This may be true. On the other hand, did what was going on in Auschwitz directly bear on the lives of Americans, Jewish or otherwise? It didn’t; but in retrospect, Jews everywhere wish we had treated these things as though they did. I am a Goy and you are a Jew; and we live on separate continents; yet what is happening in the your courtyard is the very same thing that is affecting my granddaughter very near to you.
One thing that stood out to me, about the coronavirus schematic, is how the virus literally “sheds its skin” and reduces itself to its very soul (a very short RNA strand), which turns out to be nothing but a little package of information. That information is the whole life of the virus. We also have our own “information packet” that literally keeps us alive: It is the knowledge of the living God, that we have “eaten” by studying Torah. That knowledge is the “RNA” that keeps life on earth from collapsing into anarchy — something which today is literally almost upon us. It’s a deep subject; but like the diagram, with a little explanation, it is easy to read in any language.
Shalom shalom 🙂
@ Michael S:
Yes, of course you have to log in, just as it’s required right here on Israpundit.
I refuse to put banking and credit card info on the internet, but I never knew it was a problem to have to log in to a site that keeps all personal info including email address confidential, and does not require your real name etc.
Thanks for your extremely competent and helpful interpretation of the diagrams – which I was able to fully understand..
@ Buzz of the Orient:
HI, Buzz
I found https://thenewstalkers.com/ but it requires a login. Outside of my bank, my email and a few other places I never even visit, I don’t log in anywhere. Israpundit is the only place I chat, because I’m set up here.
As for the coronavirus site, the diagram is labeled completely in English. Basically, the virus is something like a microbial automobile: It presents its “pass” at the gate,then gets into the host cell. It then gets out of its “car” and proceeds to use the host’s goods to manufacture other cars, as well as to replicate itself. Then the new “cars” drive out and attack other cells. The virus itself is nothing but RNA — essentially a chemical “word” or “manual” of instructions for the host cell to read to do the virus’s bidding. On the diagram, the pink and blue squares indicate steps along the way, where the virus could possibly be attacked by drugs.
2019-nCoV (the Wuhan coronavirus) is very similar to the SARS virus. The latest stats are 44,828 infected and 1,112 dead — mostly in Hubei Province, of course. It’s spread worldwide, though — currently confirmed in 28 countries: troughout N. America, W. Europe and Russia, all E. and S. Asia, Australia and the UAE. It’s also infected some gigantic cruise ships, which are being quarantined at sea.
@ Michael S:
Hi Michael,
I only know a few words in Spanish because in Canada French was the second language taught in school. The diagrams are interesting but I haven’t a clue what they mean. Rather than taking up space on this site about something not particularly relevant to Israel, why don’t you join “thenewstalkers” social news site (it’s free) and we can correspond there by means of private notes back and forth. You can find me because I use the same pseudonym.
Hello again, Buzz
I’m glad you are having a victory over boredom. I also have been doing some reading, but it is not John Grisham. I have been studying Genesis (Bereshit) Chap. 1, and its physical manifestation — which has lately led me to the study of microbiology — which has led to the following website:
https://francis.naukas.com/2020/01/25/el-genoma-del-coronavirus-chino-2019-ncov/
The site, of course, is in Spanish, which I can’t read without a lexicon; but it is well illustrated. The main illustration describes the structure and working of the coronavirus nCoV-2019:
https://francis.naukas.com/files/2020/01/D20200125-nature-nrd-2015-37-virus-based-and-host-based-treatment-coronavirus-replication-cycle.png
Take a look at it, and tell me what you think.
@ Michael S:
Hi Michael,
I have no problem with boredom. I’m a big fan of the movies and there are seven 24/7 cable movie channels that show foreign and Chinese films, many of which are English language, besides the English language CGTN one. I spend loads of time on the computer checking out world-wide news web-sites like Fox News, CTV (Canada), Yahoo News, Bing News, Jerusalem Post, etc. and I’m a very active member on a social news website called “thenewstalkers”, using the same pseudonym as here, on which I created and administer a group called “Light Unto the Nations”. Besides that, I’ve been spending time reading books – a few years ago a friend sent me an eReader loaded with 244 books and I still have many to read the first time, but am now reading some of my favourite author’s, John Grisham, a second time. So no cabin fever as yet although I’ve not left the home for at least 3 weeks,
@ Buzz of the Orient:
Hi, Buzz
We just WeChatted our gdaughter in ChongQ. She was snuggling in the couch, keeping warm. Then she and her adopted brother got up to get some exercise. In GZ, the family was eating breakfast — homemade bread and eggs. For fun, my 6 yr. old gson put his trousers on backwards.
Things to do while hunkered down: 1. Use your imagination. My wife and I aren’t in quarantine, but we’re retired — very similar. We sat next to each other on the sofa, and pretended to be on a train. Then I said, “Isn’t it nice to be on a train? It’s just like being at home!”
A month ago, my son-in-law was praying that he could spend more time with his wife and family. Prayer answered 🙂
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
All our utilities are working fine, and my wife, well protected with a proper surgical mask and disposable gloves buys our food and other necessities a few minutes walk from home. On return she washes carefully. Hardly anyone is around to be in contact with anyway. As well, we get such a variety of items online. My wife is a Chinese Buddhist who needs to care for her invalid mother and I will not leave her – we’ve been happily married for 11 years.
Although I’m a Jewish lifelong dedicated Zionist my wife and her extended family have complete respect for me. You would be surprised how much respect, even admiration, there is for Jews among the people in China.
I do appreciate your concern.
@ Buzz of the Orient: Buzz, this sounds pretty awful to me. How are you getting food? Do you have running water?
Once the epidemic subsides and you are pronounced free of the virus by the doctors making these decisions, why don’t you leave for Israel? In my opinion, Israel has the best doctors in the world. They are already making preparations for the coronavirus. Only one confirmed case there so far. Besides, you can be among your fellow Jews there, which is not so easy in China.
@ Michael S:
Thanks for the legitimate update, Michael. Althougn the holiday is over, very few stores are open (only for essentials such as food and pharmaceuticals) and I assume (since I’ve not been out for weeks) most if not all restaurants are closed. In fact when I look down at the square and street below me, which are usually quite busy, I can only see one or two people at a time who are most likely only there because of necessity. It’s a dystopian scene, out of a disaster movie. Across from the square is the final stop on a normally busy subway (at this point elevated) line, and although it can carry many hundreds, I can see only one or two people embark down the steps from each train. I’m happy that the people in this more upscale neighbourhood are smart enough to be very very careful.
Buzz,
Here’s the latest from
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/mask-02102020134405.html
“Private vehicles from out of town were banned from Beijing following an order made late on Sunday from the city government’s coronavirus epidemic task force.
“Meanwhile, President Xi showed his face, albeit partially covered by a surgical mask, in a residential neighborhood on Monday afternoon, in an apparent signal that the country would at least partially return to work following weeks of enforced lockdowns affecting hundreds of millions of people. Residential communities will be required to operate tight restrictions on who can come and go, in a bid to halt the spread of the coronavirus that had left 910 dead by Monday, the majority of them in worst-hit Hubei province.
“Authorities around the world reported a total of 40,645 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (nCoV-2019), with more than 40,000 reported in mainland China, according to data compiled by researchers at Johns Hopkins University.
“”The epidemic management restrictions will include closing all non-essential cultural and sports activity facilities, entertainment venues and other public places in the community,” the Beijing Steering Group on Pneumonia Prevention and Control said in a directive issued on Sunday. Residents must wear masks in public places, minimize outings and activities and decline invitations to participate in any gatherings or group activities,” it said.”
Note that the daily increases in infections continues to diminish. That is good news. It’s also good news, that the government is taking a cautious approach to allowing resumption of normal activities.
I assume that the numbers of new cases would have to decrease considerably, until people could stop wearing masks in public places. This reminds me of Noah, waiting for several weeks after running aground on the mountain before venturing out of the ark. Even though the end is in sight in China, though, the virus could suddenly bloom in countries that haven’t exercised adequate precautions. I believe this sort of thing happened during the SARS outbreak; which overall will be seen to have been a minor problem compared to this monster. I expect deaths in the thousands, before it’s all over.
@ Buzz of the Orient:
My youngest granddaughter is stranded near you, in or near Chongqing, staying with family (Chinese New Year). The rest are in Guangdong and Hong Kong. We have been able to keep in touch remotely. They are all hunkered down, and keeping in good spirits.
@ Edgar G.:
I really don’t care if it was a billionaire or a homeless pauper, I don’t believe it. For starters,, how would he know?
@ MIchael S:
I’m in Chongqing, about 540 miles from Wuhan. Where is your family located?
To everyone… !!
Just to cheer you guys up…..I just read on Arutz 7 that a Chinese billionaire has said that the Govt is hiding the truth , that there are 1.5 mill infected, with 50,000 deaths, And they are cremating the bodies at the rate of 1200 a day, in 49 fires…..
So we haven’t heard the end of the rumours and disaster stories yet………
@ Buzz of the Orient:
Hi, Buzz. I have been praying earnestly to God for my family there. Concerning the figures,
“A total of 814 deaths from the novel coronavirus (nCov-2019) were recorded worldwide, with 780 of those in the central Chinese province of Hubei. The number of confirmed cases rose to 37,592, with all but a few hundred reported in mainland Chinese cities and provinces. However, the day-to-day rise in confirmed cases slowed by around 20 percent compared with the rise in new cases reported a day earlier. Some 2,656 new cases were reported in the 24 hours ending at midnight Saturday, compared with 3,399 new cases reported in the previous 24-hour period.”
— https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/coronavirus-cases-02092020204824.html
The good news, is that the Chinese Communist Party, if you can believe them, are reporting that the reports of new infections have “slowed” to some 2,656 per day. Even if the rate of new infections would taper off as rapidly as it built up, though, that would mean some 75,000 would be infected by the time the spread has stopped. Also, you can’t count the death rate by dividing TODAY’S total deaths by TODAY’S total infected, because there is an average incubation time of some 10 days before symptoms appear, and at least several days from then until the patient dies. You must divide today’s death total by the number infected about ten days ago. Just doing rough calculating, that gives a death toll of about 10%; and 10% of 75,000 is 7,500 deaths, mostly in China, by the time this thing stops.
The Chinese people have been champion, about complying with party guidelines and self-quarantining. Even so, the expected return of all the Chinese New Year travelers, with millions of people face-to-face in trains and buses, could be disastrous.
I think the infection and mortality rates have been severely and dangerously down-played. What I am praying for, therefore, for the sake of my family, is a miracle. I also pray that when the miracle happens, the people recognize it as such and give God the glory.
@ David Barry:
What is your source for that information? I’ve also read that there have been 30,000 deaths already, so not everything we read should be believed.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Thank you Adam for posting the common sense analysis by Dr. Siegel. What upsets me is the conspiracy theories and obvious panic-inducing fake news, for example, “30,000 deaths” .
Tell me this: China is stating that they are cremating 100 bodies per day.
If they only have 700 dead, than the numbers don’t add up.
From today’s New York Post
@ Hu Yun: Actually, Mr. Hu Yun, the rest of the world is handling the problem in exactly the same way as China, by trying to isolate infected people. Criticism of China in the West has focused on its alleged overly slow response when the illness first appeared, and perhaps its not having adequately prepared for the possibility of such an outbreak before it occurred. No one in the West as far as I know has criticized the Chinese method of treating the disease and trying to prevent its spread.
This column is by an edipemiologist from New York. He thinks that there is a good that the epidemic will end in April like most flu-like viruses.than Dr. Neil Ferguson in London. However, he also thinks that the illness poses a serious health threat to the U.S. and nearly all other countries, and that there is no guarantee that the virus will disappear completely from the world this spring. He points out that many viruses from past epidemics are still around, and that sometimes people still get sick from them. No need for panic, but cause for vigilence and concern.
@ Buzz of the Orient: Good point, Buzz. I retract my earlier comment and apologize. You are a genuine and honest supporter of th epresent Chinese government and it management of this crisis.
@ Buzz of the Orient:
Update: As of today, February 9, the number of virus cases is 37198 with the deaths from it at 811. So the doctor’s estimate of deaths being at about 2% of the cases is fairly accurate.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
If I felt otherwise than what I said, and I was concerned about criticizing the government (and you will note what I said about silencing the whistleblower) then I didn’t have to comment at all, right?
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
That should really help, eh?
@ Buzz of the Orient: But after all, Buzz, if you were to send comments on the internet that were critical of China, you would probably be questioned by the police, banned from sending messages over the internet, and possibly expelled from China, which I gather would be a personal tragedy for you. China does not allow complete freedom of internet use, especially for international messaging.
@ Hu Yun:
Absolutely. I cannot believe the conspiracy garbage that is being circulated. I’m an expat Canadian and have been living in China for more than 13 years. Although I’m furious about the silencing of the whistleblowing doctor I believe that it was followed by genuine transparency, and the latest figures are around 30.000 infected and around 700 deaths. WHO supports and praises what China has been doing in its attempts to control the spread.
Also from YWN. If there is nothing we can do about the coronavirus, at least we’eve got these guys praying for us. Blowing the Shofar, too.
An interesting look on the impact of the coronavirus on Hong Kong. From Yeshiva World News
It is important to grasp that Dr. Ferguson thinks that most people who get the coronavirus experience only mild symtoms and quickly recover, without ever even knowing that what they had was the coronavirus. However, the downside of this is that these people people become “carriers” of the disease without having symptoms themselves. A bit like “typhoid Mary.” However,among the minority of infected people who do develop severe symptoms, the death toll is quite high. That is why the disease is a threat and it is difficult to contain the spread.
There is some disagreement in the press about precisely what Dr. Ferguson actually said. This article from a London ‘local news” newspaper seems to be based on an actual interview with the doctor, who is widely reported to be an authentic infectious disease specialist.
In another interview, he said that the death toll from the coronavirus was likely to be around 2 percent of cases, which is similar to the death toll from the world flu epidemic of 1919, after World War I. However, he thinks most victims will recover.
Right Now
Eighty-six more deaths from the coronavirus were reported in China, pushing the toll past 700.
34000 CASES NOT DEATHS
Please quote from reports not scare MONGERS!!!!!!
We Chinese people are suggested to stay at home. Only when people who need daily supplies will go out. The winter vacation is expanded and school and work are delayed. That way, we control the spread of the virus. Do not just guess what is happening in another country where you know nothing. People do things differently.
@ David melech:
Look it up on the internet, Better than anyone here can tell you.
What are the symptoms?