Assad defies the odds

By: Joseph Puder

Syria’s dictator Bashar al-Assad is the first Arab leader not to succumb to the Arab revolution that has brought down the (dictators) leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. Assad has withstood his Sunni-Arab opposition for two years now, albeit with reduced control over the country. That in itself signifies a meaningful victory for the Assad regime and the axis of Iran-Syria-Hezbollah, as well as Russia. The big losers are the U.S., the Arab Gulf states (particularly Qatar and Saudi Arabia), Turkey, and Israel.

It is apparent that the Syrian opposition has been unable to defeat and expel the Assad regime, and it would be futile to predict when and if that will occur. In a defiant interview with London’s Sunday Times (March 3, 2013), Bashar Assad declared he is willing to negotiate with the opposition but would not step down. He added that he would only talk with rebels who laid down their arms, making a distinction between the “political entities” he would engage with and “armed terrorists.”

Assad seemed determined to continue ruling over his torn country, where over 70,000 of his fellow countrymen have been killed, largely by his own regime. He did not seem to be apologetic, nor did he indicate his willingness to compromise. As far as he was concerned, “outsiders” are at work seeking to break up Syria, the cradle of Arab nationalism, and he, as Syria’s leader, will not allow it.

According to Abdelbari Atwan, writing for the Arabs Today website (February 14, 2013) Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, head of the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) and Assad’s personal representative, Foreign Minister Walid Muallem will both be visiting Moscow in late February or early March, 2013. The question Atwan asked was “will they meet?” The actual announcement of the visit to Moscow by both Muallem and al-Khatib was made by Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov.

The Opposition leaders admit that they are unable to capture Damascus, take over central Aleppo, or get ahold of Assad’s chemical weapon depots. Nor have the rebel Free Syrian Army been able to take control of the large Syrian air bases. This is the ostensible reason for the Syrian Opposition willingness to confer with the Russians and most likely with Muallem. The talks in Moscow, should they come to fruition, will center on the proposal for a cease fire and Assad’s promise to hold elections when his term of office ends next year. Until then, the Opposition must acknowledge Bashar Assad as Syria’s president and Commander-in-Chief of Syria’s armed forces.

The Opposition appears to be embittered by what it considers Western betrayal: American and Western failure to provide weapons to the rebels, or commit to military intervention as the West did in Libya. This is apparently why al-Khatib is willing to turn to Russia. Atwan explained it thus: “It’s clear that both [Assad] regime and Opposition camps have arrived at some kind of conviction that the current stalemate rules out a decisive military result, which means looking at other solutions. Moscow might be the best, or at least the most preferred camp for this.”

This brings us to the second victor in the Syrian conflict, President Vladimir Putin of Russia. Putin sought to prevent the U.S. and its NATO allies from toppling Assad, and at the moment he has succeeded. Iran too, is a big winner by virtue of maintaining and perhaps expending the Shiite Arc from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea, and the strategic benefits it will derive. And, as long as Assad rules in Damascus, Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, will be the strongman in Beirut.

Of the primary losers in the Syrian civil war, the Obama administration is surely one of them. Obama’s support for what his administration termed as “moderate” Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and their affiliates in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, as a wedge against the more radical Islamists such as al-Qaeda, was exposed as a failure. In Egypt, the MB led government is as dictatorial as the Mubarak regime, without the stability that Mubarak provided. The fall of the pro-western regimes in Egypt and Tunisia, with Obama’s support, did not produce a democratic and liberal Arab Spring. It did, instead, foster increased anti-Western and anti-American radicalism. In Syria, the Opposition forces are increasingly dominated by jihadist groups such as the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaida offshoot.

The Arab Gulf states and especially Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also significant losers. Their massive financial and military support given to the Sunni rebels in Syria did not succeed in offsetting the Iranian support for Assad in personnel, arms, and cash, or for that matter, unseat Assad and his Alawi clan. Iran, in spite of international sanctions, has been able to sustain the Assad regime. According to the Economy Watch (January 17, 2013), “The export Development Bank of Iran as such will provide the Commercial Bank of Syria with $1 billion import credit line, allowing (Assad’s) Syria to source for consumer supplies from Iran at a time when it is hard for them to do so from many other countries.”

Turkey, another big loser, has played all its cards against Assad’s Syria at the cost of straining its relations with its other neighbours, Iran and Iraq. In the Muslim world moreover, many view Ankara as having aligned itself with the oppressive regimes of Saudi Arabia and Qatar as well as serving the interests of “imperialism and Zionism.” Ankara’s policy in the Syrian conflict, according to many in the Muslim world, does not advance the interests of Turkey or the cause of the Muslim Ummah. Tayyip Erdogan, the Islamist Turkish Prime Minister, will now have to live under the shadow of Bashar Assad in Damascus.

Israel is the fourth loser in the Syrian conflict. Jerusalem failed to break the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah (and to a lesser extent Hamas) axis in spite of the wars it waged against Hezbollah in 2006 and Hamas in 2009 and late 2012. Most importantly, the Syrian civil war did not sever the Assad-Iran relationship. Iran’s influence in the region seems to be increasing as is Tehran’s nuclear threat. The only silver lining for Israel may be found in the prospect of a Kurdish state in north-eastern Syria.

While relatively moderate pro-western Arab regimes fell like dominos in the winter and spring of 2011, Bashar Assad of Syria, the one anti-Western regime allied with Iran, the West’s most dangerous foe, has defied the odds.

March 9, 2013 | 5 Comments »

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  1. The real trouble maker has been and remains the Ottoman Sultan who would very much like to see other doing his dirty job. He will be the main looser. The West can easily put an end to the Iran-Syria-Hizballah-Hamas coalition. But it cannot be to the benefit of the Sultan. Egypt should be allowed to sink as deep as possible. Perhaps someone will start to understand that religious fanaticism is not the solution to the self-inflicted miseries of the Muslim world and black Africa (victim of Islam & the West). It looks like the US so far prefers one more defeat in the ME. Assad for his part, as soon as he can, will do to the Sunnis what Saddam did to the Shias. Is that the game in town?

  2. Israel must grab a buffer zone between Syria and Israel before it is inundated by Al Qaeda jihadists and/or by a more muscular Assad/Iran looking for a fight. In either case Israel needs more room to defend its people and interests.

  3. This article is pretty perceptive. I agree that the show’s almost over–Assad has won. His overall popularity in Syria was mixed prior to the conflict, but after the entrance of the foreign jihadists, the Syrian Arab Army and Air Force (mostly led by Sunni officers) were supported by the vast majority of Syrians. Obama was obviously cowed by Putin, who decided to position the Russian fleet off the Syrian coast. The west is really stressed over what to do, since Saudi oil is running out soon and it really needs to find a way to control Iraq and Iran with their massive reserves. Nevertheless, the west and Turkey and Saudi Arabia and Qatar need to throw in the towel to avoid any more carnage–and future blowback.

  4. Assad seemed determined to continue ruling over his torn country, where over 70,000 of his fellow countrymen have been killed, largely by his own regime.

    I do not believe these figures for one moment. These figures are reminiscent of the tens of thousands of arabs purported by reporters to have been massacred by the Jews in Jenin. the foreign press still relies on a local bunch of liars to compile its news in the mideast. Liars and boys crying wolf have made a laughingstock of any statistics from the muslim areas. Only a fool would take these at face value considering the past record.

    Obama’s support for what his administration termed as “moderate” Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and their affiliates in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, as a wedge against the more radical Islamists such as al-Qaeda, was exposed as a failure.

    another charade and dog and pony show for a gullible public. It is patently obvious that the US has been working with Saudi/Qatari who have been controlling and funding al Qaeda in Syria. This is the same model which obtained in 1980’s Afghanistan. there is no daylight between Saudi, Al Qaeda and the US. I doubt that this relationship ever was in hiatus and I include the ’90’s in between then and now. al qaeda are controlled and funded mercenaries used to influence and create “events”.

    In Syria, the Opposition forces are increasingly dominated by jihadist groups such as the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaida offshoot.

    I wonder if there was any local syrian involvement to start with and whether there is very much now.

    Israel is the fourth loser in the Syrian conflict. Jerusalem failed to break the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah (and to a lesser extent Hamas) axis in spite of the wars it waged against Hezbollah in 2006 and Hamas in 2009 and late 2012.

    perhaps Israel has sensed that there are other interests being served with these proxy wars and that it can easily be a pawn to be sacrificed doing the bidding for others.

    The only silver lining for Israel may be found in the prospect of a Kurdish state in north-eastern Syria.

    this is a silver lining but it is also a part of a general fragmentation of syria, a weakening of Hezbullah in Lebanon accompanied by a more assertive opposition in lebanon and an involvement of Hezbullah in Syria. Assad feared the rebels more than Israel and needed their troops from the Israeli border. an unresolved conflict within the ranks of the enemy might be better than a situation where a victor emerges and is able to strengthen himself through victory. as it stands, if the status quo remains, Hizbullah, Assad and Iran will have to give attention to an ongoing sunni threat; the saudis, GCC, Egypt and Turkey must continue to be attentive to the machinations of their increasingly overt enemies; Europe, the UN, The US have to give attention to other issues aside from Israel.
    G_D is Great, His ways are Higher and Smarter than ours! Lechaim!

  5. Assad is ruthless – he is willing to kill his enemies and destroy his country to remain in power.

    He understands the maxim of Arab politics – that fear breeds respect and the most vicious survive. The weak do not survive in the desert.

    If in the end the regime survives – with the help of Iran and Hezbollah as well as the fact its opponents can only fight it to a bloody stalemate, the more his opponents bleed, the more likely his regime will survive all the odds to become the one Arab regime that triumphed over the Arab Spring.