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WILD REPORT: Assad reportedly conveyed a message to Israel via the Saudis, offering to begin removing the IRGC from Syria in exchange for assistance against Syrian rebels. pic.twitter.com/QeqePqBt3l
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) December 2, 2024
The changing tide of Iran’s position in the Middle East was hit with yet another significant blow. As indicated in the Tweet above, a Channel 14 article reports that Assad reached out to Israel for support of his regime’s survival in its fight against the rising success of the Syrian rebels.
The original source for the report is from the Saudi “Ilaaf” newspaper. The message was indirectly conveyed from a Syrian aide in Europe to Israeli intelligence, and it included an offer of Syrian cooperation with Israel. Israel responded by requiring the removal of Iranian forces situated in Syria. This is an important opportunity for both Israel and Assad, but as of now there is no information indicating that any understanding between the two has been reached at this time.
What should be noted in this report is that Israel is not calling for the removal of Russian forces from Syria, which takes on an interesting context in light of yesterday’s report about American air assets being used to support the Turkish sponsored Rebels in Syria.
@Rafi
Dry Bones Chaos in Syria
https://www.jns.org/chaos-in-syria/
Assad still claims the Golan Heights. Assad is an ally of Iran and Hezbollah.
So the enemy of my enemy is my ally. But is my enemy who is the enemy of another enemy of mine, my ally for more than five minutes. Who could trust bloodthirsty Assad.
It might make sense to cheer for both sides to win or in other words kill each other.
Israel should have led the alliance with Assad long ago, as long ago as all the reactionaries in the west led by the CIA were involved in trying to overthrow him
Vivarto you have no right and no business as a Jew to be gifting Jihad with Syria
My feeling is that Israel should urgently even at this late stage defend Assad
The sadness is that they did not come to the fore a very long time ago with Jewish demands to unite against the Islamic Jihad
But then the leadership has never been educated in Trotskyism especially in regard to principles.
Assad does not need his regime to survive.
He needs himself, his family and the Alawites to survive.
The best long term solution for that is to create an Alawite state out of a part of Syria. Anything short of that, will perpetuate the current situation where the Alawite minority must constantly defend itself from the Sunni majority. He’ll always have to rely on some external power to help him. Initially it was France who perfidiously put Alawites in charge, knowing that this way they’ll always be depending on them.
The only reason why they survived the latest insurrection was because of Russian and Iranian help.
It is not in Israel’s interest to defend a shaking unstable dictatorial regime on long term. But it could be in Israel’s interest to create an Alawite country in Syria. Such country could be an ally of Israel. It is also possible that Alawites could make a coalition with the Christians, and possibly some confederation with the Kurds.
Some population exchanges may become necessary, to ensure good borders.
Then Sunnis can have their state. And Alawites (potentially with Christians, Kurds, and maybe even Druze) could have a stable and non-fanatic country. Now it would help if Assad made free elections in the new state and be ready to give up his presidency. Perhaps retaining some role in the new government.
Very rough outline, but something Israel and America could support, maybe even Russia.
Russia does not need Syria. Russia needs a Mediterranean port (Latakia). Well then give them the port and they’ll be happy.
Also, in long term geostrategic perspective Russia and Turkeys are historical adversaries. This is only temporarily overshadowed by both of the countries opposition to America.
But while American antagonism with Russia is artificial. The antagonism between Turkey and Russia is geographical, historical and to some degree religious. Russian church would love to control Constantinople, and unify the Orthodox Christians in their camp. (Greeks, Bulgarians, Serbs, Romanians, and Ukrainians.