By Ted Belman
The NYT has a major article titled Chaotic Lebanon Risks Becoming Militant Haven
[..] General Rifi’s men stormed the safe house, killing 12 suspected militants. In response, Fatah al Islam rushed an army checkpoint at the camp’s entrance, killing 23 soldiers sleeping in tents. The continuing battle, which has claimed more than 200 lives, has ruined the camp, now the scene of daily artillery barrages as the Lebanese Army tries to flush out Fatah al Islam.
The fight has drawn scrutiny here and abroad because the militants are foreigners and veterans of the war in Iraq. As Lebanon falls increasingly into a state of political paralysis, the risk of militants setting up base here is raising alarms, especially among European intelligence officials.
The same applies to Gaza.
Strangely, I think this works in Israel’s favour.
If America’s position in the ME were stronger, it might decide it can afford to press Israel into dangerous concessions as it has done in the past. During the cold war, the US considered Israel a strategic assets and kept her strong notwithstanding that the US was trying to win over the Arabs from allegiance to the USSR.
With the implosion of the USSR, Israel was no longer considered a strategic asset so pressure was applied starting with the Madrid Conference. When the US invaded Iraq the pressure in the form of the Roadmap was continued because the US needed Arab support.
With the invasion turning sour and with the rise of Iran and its proxies, the US finds itself in need of a strong Israel to hold the line. It can’t count on the Sunni Arabs to stay strong. For that matter it could be argued that Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt need Israel to be strong for the same reason.
In conclusion the weakening of the US/Sunni alliance augers well for a strengthening of the US/Israel alliance.
That is not to say that I want Israel to be beset by enemies. Sooner rather than later Israel must disarm Hamas. Hezbollah can wait until Israel fights Syria. In all probability Israel will have to fight all three at the same time. But this time, Israel should deliver a massive blow that will ensure Israel peace for ten years.
No more withdrawal.
