By Ted Belman
The way I see it,
Iran will not start a war against Israel, through proxies or otherwise, because it will end in the demise of the Mullah regime.
Not only will Israel destroy all Iran’s nuclear bomb producing sites and the IRGC, she will also destroy Iran’s lifelines. Hillel Frisch writes:
That Iran is as vulnerable as Israel despite these differences can be attributed to three existential vulnerabilities. The first is that Iran exports 90% of its oil and gas from one port (essentially an island), Kharg, 160 km. southeast from the tip of the Iraq-Iran border, on the Persian/Arab Gulf.
The revenues Iran derives from that oil and gas amount to at least 40% of government expenditures and around half of Iran’s foreign reserves.
Meanwhile, the port of Bandar Abbas (“bandar” is “port” in Farsi) on Iran’s southern tip is responsible for 90% of its container trade. The goods brought in by container represent only 15% to 20% of total trade, but they are the goods that make the difference between the 21st and 19th centuries as far as most Iranians are concerned.
All this in the first week, and then the US/Israel will activate an insurrection through out the country which is already planned.
While I am separated from trump because of that lying incident over the Syria false flag of the White Helmets the position of Europe means that nothing short of a particular type of revolution will suffice. Europe. the capitalist rulers, are very far gone on selling out to Islam. This is what underlies all of their hostility right across the board to Israel, from the ruling class tops in government like Mrs May, it is that they are totally sold on Islam. Which comes first in their case, political correctness or sold on Islam, I think the latter is the more essential. But nothing less than revolution can change that. As I made clear yesterday on my facebook page that also means a fight to defeat more and more people posing as being left, in that case wsws.org
Islam is more and more the issue in everything.
I have no confidence in trump and I think that Israel tied to Trump that nothing good will come of this. i do not know what the effects of Hizbollah winning in the election changes things in Lebanon. What can be done to an enemy like this which is buried deep in tunnels and in mountains. My feeling is that the Jihad is being underestimated. The key issue was to unite with Saddam, with Gadhafi and Mubarak against the Jihad, and later with Assad. An accomodation with Russia and the Kurds could have been reached with Assad or at the very worst tried. All those positions were missed. There is always a cause and effect. I am simply not impressed with Trump. He lied over the false flag of a month ago in Syria, something like 27 times in 8 minutes. A person who does that is gone.
@ Edgar G.:
I just got the brilliant idea to look up “Beau Geste” on the internet. Their home was BRANDON Abbas, not Bandar Abbas……well, it’s been a long time and I got …close…
Maybe I should have looked it up BEFORE I posted but that’s not “sporting”.
Instead of a decapitation, which I thought would be the preferred tactic, it sounds more like slashing of the Mullahs’ femoral artery.
This is a tactical concept that has not been mentioned on this site until now. I can see the great benefit from destroying both of those ports. Considering the special equipment and construction required to operate them as needed, it would take years to repair or remake them for use. And then they could be destroyed again. They are a very weak link.
I think I recall that “Bandar Abbas” was mentioned in that wonderful book, and later movie, Beau Geste by P.C. Wren. I have several of his books including all the”Beau’s” but I saw that movie before I got the book. I was surprised how well Gary Cooper fitted in, despite his accent. The first Wren novel I bought was “Beau Sabreur”. I really liked them and re-read them all several times. The two Americans converted into desert sheiks were very amusing.